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Options update 12-28-07: Genesco volatility aggressive, Finish Line's elevated after court rule

Genesco (NYSE: GCO) closed at $33.06 Thursday, Finish Line (NASDAQ: FINL) closed near an eleven-year low of $3.05.

The chancery court in Nashville, Tennessee found that GCO did not commit fraud in the sale of the company to FINL, and ruled FINL to proceed with the acquisition of GCO.

FINL, with a market cap of $145 million, announced on June 18, 2007 the acquisition of all of GCO outstanding shares for $54.50 in cash.

Goldman Sachs says: "Litigation surrounding the transaction is far from over and completion of the transaction remains uncertain."

GCO overall option implied volatility of 102 is above its 26-week average of 36 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

FINL overall option implied volatility of 155 is above its 26-week average of 85 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Are people problems in companies ruining mergers?

It's no secret that most mergers and acquisitions fail to create value. The Wall Street Journal's "Manager's Journal" takes a look at a common problem with mergers:

But if the past is a guide, markets will focus on assets, portfolios and business synergies and overlook a key to whether the deal is successful: people.

People issues are often the root of failed deals, our research shows. That is because they are frequently an afterthought in the frenzy of a deal. Dealmakers gather reams of financial, commercial and operational data. But they often pay scant attention to what we call human due diligence -- understanding the culture of an organization, the roles that individuals play, and the capabilities and attitudes of its people.

This is certainly the strategy of Warren Buffett, whose conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway Inc, (NYSE: BRK.A) has grown successfully bu focusing on acquisition with strong management that wants to stay on. Berkshire avoids integration/people problems by integrating new companies as little as possible.

Given the importance of relationships in the outcome of deals, you have to wonder if some of the more conentious buyouts are doomed to fail.

For instance, The Finish Line Inc. (NASDAQ: FINL)'s acquisition of Genesco Inc. (NYSE: GCO): When Genesco reported a bad quarter, Finish Line suggested that it might attempt to back out of the proposed merger agreement. Now lawsuits and rhetorics are flying and shares of Finish Line are scraping 5-year lows. It raises the question: If the merger does end up being completed (Possibly because Finish Line has no choice), will these people be able to work together?

For a list of other deals that could find themselves struggling because of people problems, check out Private Equity Deals that have Hit Snags. In consummation isn't smooth, then integration is unlikely to be a doozie either.

Is Finish Line's (FINL) acquisition of Genesco (GCO) doomed?

Finish Line's (NASDAQ: FINL) agreement to acquire its larger rival Genesco (NYSE: GCO) appears to be in jeopardy. Last month, Finish Line announced that it was "evaluating its options regarding the agreement after Genesco reported a bad quarter.

Now Genesco has sued Finish Line in an effort to consummate the merger. From the unusually colorful press release announcing the lawsuit:

Commenting on the filing, Genesco Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Hal N. Pennington said, "No more delays by The Finish Line and UBS; no more reservation of rights; no more bankers' putting their pencils down. We want a court of competent jurisdiction to enforce our rights under the Merger Agreement and for The Finish Line and UBS to live up to their obligations."

Continue reading Is Finish Line's (FINL) acquisition of Genesco (GCO) doomed?

Finish Line (FINL) mulls options on Genesco (GCO) takeover

Genesco NYSE: GCO logoGenesco (NYSE: GCO) reported disappointing results for its second quarter, and now its agreement to be acquired by Finish Line (NASDAQ: FINL) may be in jeopardy.

Finish Line "issued a statement" regarding Genesco's results. According to the press release, "The Company is disappointed with Genesco's second quarter fiscal 2008 financial results ... the Company is evaluating its options in accordance with the terms of the merger agreement. The Company does not intend to make further comments at this time."

Sounds like it's going try to find a way to back out of the deal. Shareholders for both companies have spoken up about how they feel about that. Genesco has wilted 13% on the news and Finish Line is up more than 12% -- on news that it will consider its options with regard to a previously-announced merger.

It's not yet known whether Finish Line will be able to back out of the deal, and at what cost. But given how positively the Street reacted to the possibility of Finish Line backing out, the management has to be dying to get out of this thing.

Why are there so many cheap shoe stocks out there?

After reading Kevin Kelly's stock pick for a volatile market -- Steve Madden (NASDAQ: SHOO) -- I started thinking about all the shoe stocks that have been popping up on my deep value radar of late. A handful of shoe manufacturers and retailers have piqued my interest with low price/book ratios or low price/earnings ratios. Here they are:

Rocky Brands (NASDAQ: RCKY): Rocky owns the ROCKY® brand, along with GEORGIA BOOT®, LEHIGH®, DURANGO, MICHELIN FOOTWEAR and ZUMFOOT and manufactures DICKIES® boots under a licensing deal.

The company disappointed the Street -- actually enraged it -- with its second-quarter results. But the stock trades at a modest price/earnings ratio, and reaffirmed its guidance when it reported the bad quarter. At 0.23 times sales and .60 times book value, this one may be worth scooping out of the bargain bin.

Finish Line (NASDAQ: FINL): Shares of Finish Line, an operator of mall-based footwear stores, have been getting hammered since the company agreed to acquire its much larger competitor Genesco (NYSE: GCO) for $1.5 billion in cash. Following the deal, the combined entity's balance sheet is going to look like something out of those 1950's horror movies you can get on DVD for a buck at Wal-Mart.

Phoenix Footwear Group (AMEX: PXG): These guys make shoes and work boots under labels including Royal Robbins apparel, the Tommy Bahama, Trotters, SoftWalk, H.S. Trask footwear, Altama boots and Chambers Belt. The stock popped a few weeks ago when the company received a nice Defense Department contract, but has since retreated.

Shoe Pavilion (NASADQ: SHOE): So far, this is one of those turnarounds that, like most turnarounds, isn't really turning around. The company operates discount shoe stores and isn't making any money.

Judging from their stock prices, life has been tough for the second-tier shoe companies -- Perhaps competition and pricing pressure from mass merchandisers is hurting sales and margins. But these stocks look, at least superficially, to be cheap, and may be good contrarian bets.

Market highlights for next week: Covansys holds special shareholder meeting

Next week's highlights include Covansys' shareholders meeting, where the Computer Sciences Corp acquistion will be discussed.


Monday June 25
Tuesday June 26
Wednesday June 27
Thursday June 28
Friday June 29

Market highlights for next week: Tiffany, McCormick and CKE Restaurants to report

Monday March 26
  • Tiffany & Co (NYSE: TIF) to report Q4 earnings; conference call at 8:30am. Analysts will evaluate Tiffany's holiday performance, new products and note management's comments on global diamond and jewelry trends.
  • Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX) to hold analyst meeting at 8:30am.
  • Canon Inc ADR (NYSE: CAJ) to hold shareholder meeting at 10pm.
Tuesday March 27
  • Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) to hold shareholder meeting at 9:30am.
  • McCormick and Company Inc (NYSE: MKC) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 10am. Analysts will focus on McCormick's consumer segment [largest business], but will also note industrial business line performance, new spices/ingredients and commodity costs.
Wednesday March 28
  • Teco Energy Inc (NYSE: TE) to provide 2007 outlook; webcast at 8am.
  • Media Telecommunications & Entertainment Conference 3/28-3/29
Thursday March 29
  • PDUFA date for Nastech Pharmaceutical Company Inc's (NASDAQ: NSTK) Calcitonin-Salmon Nasal Spray for Osteoporosis.
Friday March 30
  • Finish Line Inc (NASDAQ: FINL) to report Q4 earnings; conference call at 8:30am. Note that the company issued disappointing guidance earlier this month.
  • CKE Restaurants Inc (NYSE: CKR), the owner of Carl's Jr. and Hardee's restaurants, to report Q4 earnings; conference call at 9am. Analysts will review the company's same store sales by restaurant chain, average lunch/dinner checks, menu changes and margins. Analysts will also evaluate management's the performance of breakfast offerings, and the company's chain expansion plan.

Newspaper wrap-up 3-22-07: Kraft looking for foreign acquisitions

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported that Kraft Foods Inc (NYSE: KFT), looking to make foreign acquisitions, is giving its international managers more power to engineer deals. Kraft is most interested in acquisitions in Russia, Ukraine, Brazil and Mexico, according to a person familiar with the matter.
  • According to Barron's Online's (subscription required) "Weekday Trader" column, Corn Products International Inc's (NYSE: CPO) recent 17% drop could be a buying opportunity.
  • According to the Financial Times (subscription required), Bertelsmann has joined forces with private equity partners to consider a bid for textbook publisher Thomson Corporation (NYSE: TOC). The asking price is about $5B.
OTHER PAPERS:
  • Several private equity firms, including Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, Bain Capital and Texas Pacific Group, have shown a strong interest in acquiring the beverage arm of Cadbury Schweppes ADS (NYSE: CSG) reported the U.K. Times.
  • The New York Post reported that WPP Group plc ADS (NASDAQ: WPPGY) has Hollywood ambitions, taking a 6.8% stake in Media Rights Capital, partly owned by talent agency Endeavor.
  • Investor's Business Daily's "New America" column mentioned shoe maker Sketchers USA Inc (NYSE: SKX) positively, noting that the company's presence has increased significantly in stores like Foot Locker Inc (NYSE: FL) and Finish Line Inc (NASDAQ: FINL).

Step to it: A trio of shoe stocks

Quantitative analyst and editor of OTC Insight, Jim Collins sees opportunity in Steve Madden (NASDAQ: SHOO), a shoe designer whose products are distributed through department and specialty stores, its 95 retail shops and its e-commerce site.

Fundamentally, Collins is attracted to a recent new product launch known as the "Design your Own" collection, which lets buyers choose between the size of the heels and the patterns, materials, finishings and colors to customize their own shoes. Collins points out that there are a total of 4,221 possible combinations.

Technically, Collins looks to the stock's very high relative strength ranking of 98 out of 100 as well as its solid score of 'B' for accumulation-distribution. He does caution that the company is exposed to fashion risk, which he notes can be difficult to predict. Despite these risks, he has selected the issue as his latest featured investment.

Validea has an unusual approach to stock selection; editor John Reese assesses companies based on the strategies employed by "legendary investors." In the case of his latest buy, Finish Line (NASDAQ: FINL), the stock was chosen based on the value methodology used by Benjamin Graham (Warren Buffett's mentor) and Peter Lynch.

Continue reading Step to it: A trio of shoe stocks

Jo-Ann Stores and Lowe's rock Black Friday, dollar stores don't

The deals and general craziness of Black Friday have already been well-covered in this space, so I thought it might be interesting to turn your attention to the actual stock reactions. My intentions were simple enough (but aren't they always?): grab a list of retail stocks and calculate the returns from the close on Wednesday, November 22, through this morning. Sorting the list would give a quick (but early) overview of how the Street was reacting to the "day."

I have ample data manipulation tools at my disposal, so I figured this to be an easy task. What I didn't count on was not being able to find what I considered to be a satisfactory list of retail stocks. The lists I found were either too broad or too narrow. I wanted the usual suspects like Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT), and Gap (NYSE:GPS), while also picking up some of the smaller players like Bebe Stores (NASDAQ:BEBE) and Chico's FAS (NYSE:CHS). Additionally I wanted to capture some of the brands like Crocs (NASDAQ:CROX) and dELiA*s (NASDAQ:DLIA), while excluding consumer goods producers and fast food restaurants.

Unable to find a list that suited my (admittedly arbitrary) desires, I began to handpick names and compile a list of 72 stocks. The graph below shows the top and bottom performing stocks through noon today.



Blue Nile (NASDAQ:NILE), Pier One (NYSE:PIR), and Coldwater Creek (NASDAQ:CWTR) are the weakest stocks, while Lowe's (NYSE:LOW), American Eagle Outfitters (NASDAQ:AEOS), and Jo-Ann Stores (NYSE:JAS) are the strongest.

As you can infer from the graph, the bulk of the returns are flat to lower as two of the "best performing" stocks, Aeropostale (NYSE:ARO) and Limited Brands (NYSE:LTD), show a loss. In other words, buying just ahead of Black Friday doesn't seem like it would have been a good short-term trading strategy. Going forward though, I would expect to see some stocks distinguish themselves and separate from the pack. With my list now created (and saved!) it should be much easier to track. If there is interest in this, I can post periodic updates.

Nick Perry is an analyst with Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+46.3310,480.04
NASDAQ+8.962,178.14
S&P 500+5.061,110.71

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 11:48 AM

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