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Make investors pay for analysts

DealBook reports that Frank Quattrone, the former First Boston high tech banker who spent four years fighting charges of obstruction of justice, is trying to change the role of analysts on Wall Street to make them glorified sales people for small, high-tech company IPOs.

That's what they were for Quattrone and they helped make him wealthy. But thanks to people like former Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) analyst and current Silicon Alley Insider blogger Henry Blodget, who famously trashed companies in e-mails to colleagues while boosting them in his reports, the role of Wall Street analysts has been permanently transformed. They can no longer get paid out of investment banking revenues. Instead, their compensation comes from trading revenues. And analysts are not supposed to talk to bankers unless a lawyer is present.

Quattrone makes two good points though. First, there is no career upside for analysts to cover small companies. That's because only the big companies can generate the trading or banking revenues needed to pay the analysts. Second, the most talented analysts went to work for hedge funds and private equity firms. The result is that individual investors can't get analysis for free. Quattrone fails to point out that the quality of that analysis is worth what individuals pay for it -- nothing directly and a modest sum indirectly (through trading commissions).

Continue reading Make investors pay for analysts

GM at $40, a deal with the UAW

In an interview in Barron's this week, Chris Ceraso of First Boston says that General Motors (NYSE: GM) stock will move to $40, if it gets a "reasonably good deal" from the UAW.

It appears that the "good deal" may be just around the corner. As GM and the UAW prepare for the next set of bargaining sessions. a large number of media outlets, including MarketWatch, say that the agreement to move GM's $55 billion liability for worker health care into a fund controlled by the union is nearly done. The new arrangement would also save GM about $5 billion in annual expenses.

The open issue in moving the fund is how much GM will have to pay into the new pool. The number could certainly be above $30 billion, which means GM might have to raise some of the money. Or, a portion of the dollars could go in as GM stock.

In many ways the deal is better for the UAW than it is for GM. Once the new health benefit pool is set up, the union needs to run it prudently to make sure that it can handle worker benefits for the years to come. But, no matter which GM's costs will have been cut, it still has to reverse the market share decline that it has suffered in the U.S. at the hands of Japanese car markers. Lower costs-per-vehicle may help, but can't make up entirely for ongoing drops in sales.

First Boston may be right, GM's shares my go to $40, but, If revenue keeps slipping, it won't be there for long.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

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Last updated: February 12, 2012: 12:16 AM

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