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First Solar posts

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: ADTN, CAL, EXFO, JCI, LUV, VAR, CSCO, KMT, EZCH

Analyst upgrades:
  • Citigroup upgraded Adtran (NASDAQ: ADTN) to Buy from Hold on expectations the company will benefit from the broadband Stimulus funds.
  • Morgan Stanley upgraded Continental Airlines (NYSE: CAL) to Overweight from Equal Weight based on relative valuation and views the company as a "survivor." Additionally, the analyst lowered 2009 industry estimates but believes it is the last cut for the year and is incrementally more positive on the sector.
  • Morgan Stanley also upgraded EXFO Electro-Optical (NASDAQ: EXFO) to Overweight from Market Weight based on valuation.
  • Tata Motors (NYSE: TTM) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
  • Ascent Solar (NASDAQ: ASTI) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.
  • Mechel Steel (NYSE: MTL) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: ADTN, CAL, EXFO, JCI, LUV, VAR, CSCO, KMT, EZCH

Evolution of a trade in First Solar

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Smita Sadana.

A trade doesn't simply have an initiation and finale – the most important part of a trade is its evolution and constant re-assessment if the original thesis that the trade was initiated with, still holds true.

On that note, let's look at First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR). I started a short position in it on 6/1 when instead of participating in the market advance, it lagged (due to a LA Times story that FSLR's acquisition of "strategic land rights" is under scrutiny). Recall, it came on the heels of a cautious mention in Barron's on May 26th. So, both times, FSLR reacted negatively to negative news and volume picked up on both those instances.

Today, Pacific Crest Securities reiterated its buy rating on FSLR and called the recent weakness a "buying opportunity."

I

Continue reading Evolution of a trade in First Solar

First Solar: Profitable sun worship

Generally, my bias is toward large-cap companies with a demonstrated business model. In a nutshell, "experimental" business models need not apply. However, every once in a while I make an exception, and First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) is one. Here's why:

In addition to growth potential for its proprietary thin film semiconductor solar module technology, First Solar has a building macroeconomic tailwind in the bottoming U.S./global recession and dawning recovery. The First Call FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for FSLR are $7.18 to $8.72.

Continue reading First Solar: Profitable sun worship

First Solar gaps lower on downgrade, bearish Barron's article

The shares of First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) have started the week on a rocky note. Not only did Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. downgrade the stock from Market Perform to Underperform, the alternative energy issue was also the topic of a skeptical Barron's article over the weekend.

In a note to clients, brokerage firm Friedman cited weak polysilicon prices and the stock's overrich valuation for its downgrade. FSLR closed last Friday at $191.72 per share, compared to Friedman's price target of $110.

Meanwhile, the cautious Barron's write up [subscription required] observes that the Intersolar trade show begins Wednesday in Munich, and pits FSLR against many lower-priced rivals. "One leading customer says it will ditch First Solar's 'thin-film' panels if crystalline silicon alternatives keep getting cheaper.

That seems likely. Silicon prices are expected to drop another 30% by year end. First Solar profits -- and its shares -- could get cut in half," commented the financial paper.

Continue reading First Solar gaps lower on downgrade, bearish Barron's article

The week in preview: High hopes for First Solar, Humana, DreamWorks and more

As the quarterly reports continue to roll out and the market continues to rally, optimism seem to be rising. Analysts certainly have high hopes for some companies reporting earnings this week.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) to report first-quarter earnings of $1.51 per share, which is 62.3% higher than a year ago. Revenue for the quarter is expected to be 105.6% higher, or $404.9 million. First Solar earnings have topped expectations in the past five quarters, by as much as 47.3%. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 40.6% and the forward PE ratio estimate is 23.0. In the previous quarter, Tempe, Ariz.-based First Solar reported having more cash on hand than debt. The First Call consensus recommendation is to buy FSLR; CNBC recently included it as a stock pick. First Solar has announced that it will build new solar power plants in Nevada and Germany. Its share price has risen 6.9% since the beginning of the year to $147.46.

Continue reading The week in preview: High hopes for First Solar, Humana, DreamWorks and more

First Solar (FSLR): Still shining?

"The solar sector has been notably weak, including First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR)," says Stephen Leeb. Despite the setback, the editor of The Complete Investor rates the stock a high risk buy.

"First Solar is one of the few whose earnings outperformed consensus estimates: its fourth-quarter results reported yesterday after the market's close were nearly 25% better than estimates.

"First Solar made $1.61 per share this past quarter; Wall Street was expecting $1.30 per share. Revenues were also ahead of estimates, although the company reduced 2009 revenue estimates by about 10%, citing short-term credit concerns for customers.

Continue reading First Solar (FSLR): Still shining?

Earnings highlights: Campbell, Sears, Home Depot, Nordstrom, Marvel and more

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Campbell, Sears, Home Depot, Nordstrom, Marvel and more

Closing Bell: Maybe Obama's strong language was misunderstood; BAC, CB, C, FSLR, WYNN

A late-day rally based on more Bernanke and Geithner data on stress tests and bank packages took away the sting of what was considered a defeat for banks and big business after Obama's speech last night. Existing housing data added to pressure this morning, but again this was trumped at the end of the day. Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 7,270.65 -80.29 (-1.09%)
S&P 500 764.87 -8.27 (-1.07%)
Nasdaq 1,425.43 -16.40 (-1.14%)

Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades

Continue reading Closing Bell: Maybe Obama's strong language was misunderstood; BAC, CB, C, FSLR, WYNN

First Solar (FSLR) reports stronger-than-expected earnings; shares tank

Yesterday, solar firm First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) announced that its fourth-quarter profit more-than doubled in the face of declining demand for its products. Arizona-based FSLR raked in $1.61 per share in the fourth quarter, up from 77 cents per share a year earlier. The Street expected earnings of $1.30 per share.

Fourth-quarter sales increased to $433.7 million, far better than the expected $410.4 million. Full-year sales totaled $348.3 million, with earnings checking in at $4.24 per share.

Continue reading First Solar (FSLR) reports stronger-than-expected earnings; shares tank

The week in preview: Eye on Marvel, KBR, First Solar, Deckers and more

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected the parade of earnings declines to continue into the final week of February, with Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. (NYSE: MSO), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD), Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN), Macy's Inc. (NYSE: M), DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. (NYSE: DWA), Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), Royal Bank Of Canada (NYSE: RY), Del Monte Foods Co. (NASDAQ: DLM), Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS), Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO), Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB), RadioShack Corp. (NYSE: RSH), and H.J. Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ) all expected to post lower earnings for the most recent quarter. Office Depot Inc. (NYSE: ODP), Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS), and Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: CTB) are expect to have swung to a loss.

Continue reading The week in preview: Eye on Marvel, KBR, First Solar, Deckers and more

Energy savers: Betting on Obama's new New Deal

"President Obama has stated that he's been studying Roosevelt's first 100 days and the way out of the current economic mess will look a lot like the New Deal," says David Fessler.

The advisory panelist for The Oxford Club explains, "Seventy-five years after Roosevelt's inauguration, I think we will soon see President Obama get the ball rolling on his version of the New Deal, focused on two very specific areas: energy and infrastructure." Here, he looks at stocks poised to benefit.

"Saving energy will be one of his first initiatives. It's what will give us the quickest bang for our buck. Better insulation in homes, programmable thermostats, fluorescent bulbs, more fuel-efficient cars, energy management systems for use in larger-scale commercial buildings and beefed-up public transportation are just a few of the ways to save energy.

"The government will likely offer attractive tax incentives to rally support. So who stands to prosper from such initiatives?

"Big blue-chip companies, like Owens Corning (NYSE: OC), maker of insulated glass and building insulation; General Electric (NYSE: GE), manufacturer of wind turbines, energy control and infrastructure products; and Johnson Controls Inc. (NYSE: JCI), maker of energy management systems (for buildings and vehicles) and hybrid vehicle batteries.

Continue reading Energy savers: Betting on Obama's new New Deal

First Solar: Should we really be listening to anyone at Citi?

Shares of First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) have been pummeled this week, as analysts, starting with Citigroup (NYSE: C), downgrade the stock.

Previously, the stock had enjoyed high ratings, generally in the Buy or Accumulate range. With Citi leading the way, other analysts have followed suit with rating reductions.

Citi cited concerns regarding the amount of solar panel inventory waiting to be absorbed, along with worries about future demand.

By some estimates, only 10% of the solar panels in inventory at the end of the year will be taken up by the anticipated increased demand generated from the adoption of the Obama energy proposals. An additional 20% reduction of inventories is projected to result in 2010.

The market is not distinguishing among the companies in the solar panel manufacturing business. Regardless of the strength of an individual manufacturer, all are being treated with the same lack of enthusiasm by analysts and investors. A closer look at First Solar suggests that this should not be the case.

First Solar is a leading designer and manufacturer of solar modules using thin-film semiconductor technology, which converts sunlight to electricity. Based in Phoenix, Ariz., First Solar has long-term supply contracts with 12 European project developers and systems integrators.

The solar module industry has come into recent criticism for its impact on the environment. Concerns are being raised that the eventual disposal of solar panels will result in the emission of large amounts of greenhouse gasses as the semiconductors disintegrate.

First Solar, however, has established a model for extended producer responsibility, which creates an obligation of the producer to have policies and practice to ensure that the company takes responsibility for environmental consequences from cradle to grave. The company provides the purchaser of its products with a guarantee to take back all its panels at the end of their useful life.

First Solar has received acclaim for building concern for environmental impact into all phases of the manufacturing and recycling of its products.

FSLR stock is trading around $142 per share. Shares had rallied last week to $165 per share on the heels of President-elect Obama's energy proposals. The stock had increased in price by 76% from its 52-week low, and was approaching its 12-month target price of $167.70.

The sell-off of FSLR has been greatly overdone. The company's balance sheet is strong, with a long-term debt-to-equity ratio of 0.10 and a current ratio of 3.23. The 21.84% on equity should also be of comfort to investors.

An additional plus for FSLR is the likelihood of a push to solar energy as part of the job stimulus program of the new administration.

Louis Navellier's PortfolioGrader Pro, which rates Wall Street stocks, rates FSLR a B or Buy.

Jamie Dlugosch is a contributor to NavellierGrowth.com.

Options Update: ISCA volatility elevated; shares near ten-year low; FSLR, PETM

International Speedway (NASDAQ: ISCA), a promoter of motor sports entertainment, closed at $25.23 Tuesday. ISCA December option implied volatility of 58 is above its 26-week average of 34 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

PetsMart (NYSE: PETM), the operator of more than 1,075 pet stores, is scheduled to report Q3 EPS today. PETM closed at $15.06 Tuesday. PETM November 15 straddle is priced at $1.65, PETM December 15 straddle is priced at $3.40. PETM December option implied volatility is at 97: January is at 75; above its 26-week average of 56 according to Track Data, indicating larger near term movement.

First Solar (NYSE-FSLR) is recently down $6.56 to $104 in pre-open trading. Friedman Billings says: "Recent checks suggest that FSLR's new strategy in the U.S. market (entering the distributed, rooftop segment) is already facing headwinds." FSLR overall option implied volatility of 121 is above its 26-week average of 82 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Solar stocks feeling the pain (LDK, FSLR, JASO, STP)

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Sean Udall.

JA Solar (NASDAQ: JASO) blew its quarter and lowered guidance, and now the group is under pressure.

I don't think I've ever written a positive word on JASO as they are in the middle tier, essentially a jobber for the solar space. The company make various feedstock products to the final product makers, while being dependent on the core technology and "root" feedstock polysilicon from the likes of LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) and MEMC Electronics (NYSE: WFR). So it has a timing issue and margin compression issue. The company is facing lower final pricing of their products while having locked in longer term "commodity" pricing at higher prices. So its raw costs are not falling as fast as its own pricing.

The poly guys mentioned above and companies like Sun Power (NASDAQ: SPWRA), First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) and Suntech Power (NYSE: STP) don't face these pressures as intensely, though that may not matter much today. STP reports on the 20th this month and I think it will give a clearer picture of the space. Meanwhile SPWRA keeps closing significant deals and FSLR reported the best and has little if any of the funding concerns. So for the leaders, it's a question of how low do they go before the long term positives catch up. Meanwhile, a few of the smaller shops like JASO are in a race against the credit crunch because they need to be able to renegotiate some of their longer-term input costs.

LDK and WFR are still companies that I feel are uniquely positioned, as both have a partial oligopoly status as polysilicon suppliers. In the $15's and lower, it's getting to the point where I may again trade around my core position and look for that beta pop on any significant Naz bounce. Also, this stock could move 50% higher and still be exceedingly cheap on almost any value criteria.

Earnings highlights: BP, CBS, Kraft, Sony, Verizon, Colgate, Nintendo and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: BP, CBS, Kraft, Sony, Verizon, Colgate, Nintendo and others

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-52.988,130.19
NASDAQ-0.571,751.98
S&P 500-4.95877.73

Last updated: July 10, 2009: 01:29 PM

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