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Cramer on BloggingStocks: Just being upbeat isn't good enough

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says these companies believed they could ride out the storm, but that wasn't the reality.

Have I been had? That's how I feel recently about two interviews I conducted on "Mad Money," one with Bruce Carbonari of Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO) (Cramer's Take) and the other with Rick Goings from Tupperware (NYSE: TUP) (Cramer's Take).

Let me say from the outset that these two companies and these two CEOs have been gracious enough to come on my show to talk about their businesses and their prospects and how they would survive in tough times.

Both have what I call accidentally high yields. Both are upbeat people and like to see the good in their businesses. They are not "downbeat" -- perhaps even when they should be.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Just being upbeat isn't good enough

Closing Bell: Bulls drive autos, yes autos, to win the day

The bulls got to lead the first day of the quarter, although we would note that if today was the norm that trading volatility isn't slowing down regardless of the direction. Oil rose again toward session highs on tensions and the usual myriad of reasons we cite for oil rising (yes, it's that routine). Here are today's unofficial closing levels:
  • DJIA 11,381.77 (+31.51)
  • S&P500 1284.89 (+4.89)
  • NASDAQ 2304.97 (+11.99)
  • 10YR T-Note 3.992% (+0.013%)
  • 52-WEEK LOWS
We actually saw many financial sector upgrades from research firms today, which sent many of the corresponding shares higher in what feels like a "for once" statement. We would caution that later in the day an analyst report did note other banks would need more capital (again).

Continue reading Closing Bell: Bulls drive autos, yes autos, to win the day

Is Absolut worth $8.9 billion? Absolutely!

When the Swedish government put Vin & Spirit, parent company of Absolut Vodka, up for sale more than a year ago, industry experts estimated it would fetch over $4 billion.

Now, Pernod Ricard, a French liquor company, is buying the brand for $8.89 billion. Absolut is the third largest spirit brand in the world, and the sale attracted the interest of many of the industry's top players: Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO), Diageo and Bacardi.

What makes the high valuation afforded to Absolut so interesting is that Pernod Ricard is paying nearly $9 billion for a brand that only really came to prominence in its current form in the 1980s.

With its racy and provocative ads (like the one on this post), Absolut was one of the first mainstream brands to aggressively target the gay community. Back when the sale effort was first announced, I opined that targeting gay media outlets was a decision that paid off, as this large, and often affluent population group, now counts Absolut as its vodka of choice. Perhaps a company like Budweiser, which has been widely criticized for spending money on ads (such as the Super Bowl) that have done little for the brand, could learn something from Absolut's edgy marketing.

The M&A field is in a rough patch right now, struggling from a tough debt market and general economic malaise. But apparently, strategic buyers are still able to pay up for strong brands.

Cramer on BloggingStocks: This market is rough

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the bad news is relentless, and people are discouraged.

Each day seems to be filled with so much disappointment. The American Axle (NYSE: AXL) (Cramer's Take) strike, for example, has now pretty much shut down General Motors (NYSE: GM) (Cramer's Take), and I see no signs that AXL can defeat the union. Given how heavily dependent the Midwest region is on GM for steady income, this one can only exacerbate the terrible real estate market and hence the terrible mortgage delinquencies that pockmark Indiana, Michigan and Ohio.

Or the loss of the Absolut brand for Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO) (Cramer's Take). Fortune needed to win this one because its home improvement business is falling off a cliff. This was a vain attempt to diversify a division that has always helped the company in tough times.

Or the Vytorin studies, nothing new, as we knew that parts of the medical community doesn't approve of the drug, but the analysts had held out hope and we have and are going to see repeated downgrades of the stock. I am telling subscribers of Action Alerts PLUS that Schering (NYSE: SGP) (Cramer's Take) stock, at $16 -- where it is surely headed -- has now lost more than half its value, which reflects the pulling of the drug. As 50% of the company's earnings are reportedly from the drug, perhaps that's a fitting decline. I think SGP is worth a lot more because of the purchase of Oraganon. I have been very wrong. My solace: So many others have been, too.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: This market is rough

Analyst initiations: JAVA, FTI, TPTX and EXEL

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sun Microsystems (JAVA), FMC Technologies (FTI), TorreyPines (TPTX), and Exelixis (EXEL) were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Sun Microsystems Inc (NASDAQ: JAVA) was initiated with a Market Perform at BMO Capital, which views the shares' risk/reward as favorable around $5.
  • FMC Technologies Inc (NYSE: FTI) was initiated with a Buy by Jefferies, which believes strong subsea fundamentals will drive strong earnings by the company.
  • TorreyPines Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: TPTX) was initiated with a Strong Buy at JMP Securities, which said PhIIb data in Q4 on the company's tezampanel drug could increase investor conviction on the first in-class drug.
  • Exelixis Inc (NASDAQ: EXEL) was initiated with a Buy by Lazard, which believes Exelixis has a promising pipeline.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Analyst initiations 7-11-07: BAY, DHI, FO and JNJ

MOST NOTEWORTHY: HouseValues, Inc (SOLD), Fortune Brands (FO), D.R. Horton (DHI), Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS) and USG Corp (USG) were some of today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Cantor believes HouseValues (NASDAQ: SOLD) may be a lagging indicator of the broader real estate market. As such, it may see its customer and revenue bases contract further in the face of still-sluggish housing data and started shares with a Hold rating.
  • Pali Research initiated Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO) with a Neutral rating based on valuation.
  • The firm also believes D.R. Horton's (NYSE: DHI) risk to book value and profitability is higher than some of the competition since the company has taken significantly less land charges. Shares were initiated with a Hold rating.
  • Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS) was initiated with an Outperform at Baird and is positive on Dick's store expansion, market leadership, margin opportunities and fundamentals.
  • USG (NYSE: USG) was initiated with a Sell rating at Banc of America, believing wallboard price and profit declines will be worse than expected due to lower housing starts and less spending on remodeling. Their analysis suggests another leg down for housing...
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Merrill Lynch initiated Bayer AG (NYSE: BAY) with a Buy rating and UBS initiated QLogic (NASDAQ: QLGC) with a Neutral rating.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Newspaper wrap-up 6-13-07: Apple embeds iTunes in Bebo

MAJOR PAPERS:
OTHER PAPERS:

Analyst downgrades 1-19-07: Fortune Brands lowered to Neutral

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Fortune Brands (FO) and Altria Group (MO) were today's more notable downgrades:
  • JP Morgan downgraded Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO) to Neutral from Overweight on valuation and the weak outlook for home and hardware sales.
  • Altria Group (NYSE: MO) was downgraded by Deutsche Bank to Hold from Buy with a $95 target, citing its valuation, ex-Kraft, is more in line with its tobacco peers.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

  • CheckPoint Software Tech (NASDAQ: CHKP) was downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform with a $19 target at Freedman Billings, with expectations that 2007 will be a difficult transition year.
  • Matrix USA downgraded shares of Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD) to Hold from Buy on valuation.
  • Goldman Sachs downgraded TRW Automotive Hldg (NYSE: TRW) to Sell from Neutral and was added to the America's Sell List; they believe rising costs, a less favorable product mix and commercial steering business headwinds will weigh on revenue growth and margins in 2007.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst initiations 10-23-06: AMD and Fortune Brands initiated

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Fortune Brands (FO) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) top today's small list of initiations.

  • Fortune Brands, Inc. (NYSE:FO) was initiated with a Neutral rating and $86 target. The firm expects the weak housing market to put pressure on the shares.
  • Morgan Stanley resumed coverage on Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD) with a Equal Weight, citing risk to the ATI Technologies (ATYT) acquisition.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

  • Morgan Stanley initiated Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) with an Overweight rating and $23 target. The firm expects the high-end single-family market to outperform the group.
  • Benihana, Inc. (NASDAQ:BNHNA) was initiated with an Outperform at Ryan Beck. The firm is positive on Benihana's accelerated remodeling program and potential growth from the company's RA Sushi concept.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-17.2410,433.71
NASDAQ-6.832,169.18
S&P 500-0.591,105.65

Last updated: November 24, 2009: 08:54 PM

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