The U.S. stock market remains one characterized by considerable risk: It has shown some internal strength recently, but all its takes is one sub-expectations earnings report -- or one public policy error in Washington -- and the bears will be out in force again. Hence, discretion is the order of the day, with a premium placed on companies with demonstrated business models. With this in mind, Freeport-McMoRan is worth a review.

Freeport (NYSE: FCX) is a preferred miner due to its copper and molybdenum operations. Yes, the gold operation is sexy, but the copper operation is the backbone here, with the company boasting about 100 billion pounds of proven and probable copper reserves.

This post is part of our Big Company, Small Town series, featuring large companies and the small towns in which they are headquartered.

Few companies are as strongly associated with their hometowns as L.L. Bean, which has been producing outdoor clothing, sporting goods, and brightly colored preppy wear in Freeport, Maine, since 1912. The company's first product, the iconic rubber boot called the Maine hunting shoe, was manufactured in Freeport, and quickly became a big hit despite the fact that most of the first boots sold were returned due to a design defect.

In the past 95 or so years, both L.L. Bean and Freeport have come a long way. The company store, which began in a basement, grew significantly over the years, despite the fact that most of Bean's $1.5 billion in annual sales come through its ubiquitous mail-order catalog. The store has been open 24 hours a day since 1951, with a few exceptions for the deaths of John F. Kennedy and the founder, Leon Leonwood Bean.

Today, the company dominates the very small town of Freeport, population 7,800. It's much more than just a store, as its multiple buildings, parking lots, and outdoor patios and sculptures define the town itself. L.L. Bean has become more of a campus than a store, with different buildings for clothes, hunting and fishing gear, bikes and boats, and a discount outlet, as well as outdoor spaces dedicated to demonstrations of equipment and live musical performances.

This article is part of a 20 article special report on "Metals, miners and money".

"The Fed's bailout of the mortgage markets has reignited fears of inflation and of a slow-motion meltdown of the dollar," says Mark Skousen, editor of Forecasts & Strategies.

"That makes now a good time to own mining stocks, particularly Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX), which made a very smart move in March when it bought Phelps Dodge for $26 billion. The purchase made Freeport the world's largest publicly-traded copper company.

"It now has a huge, long-lived, geographically diverse portfolio of mining assets. And the acquisition of Phelps is producing tens of millions of dollars in unexpected savings. The buy will result in an immediate 30% spike in Freeport's annual sales.

"With Freeport opening a new copper mine in Arizona ahead of schedule this year -- one that will produce at least 240 million pounds of copper per annum -- and the new company enjoying huge new economies of scale, expect this stock to continue its rapid run."

Mining giant BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP)'s $110 billion offer for Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) has been rejected by the latter, with Rio indicating that the all-share offer was too low.

Further, talk on Wall Street Thursday tended to side with BHP making a better offer for Rio, amid chatter that Rio may seek an alternate offer from Brazilian rival, Vale.

BHP's shares fell $2.70 to $77.65 Thursday morning, while Rio's surged $94.70 to $452.20.

Analysts had projected that a BHP/Rio deal could have become the largest acquisition in history. Thursday's offer, however, was not high enough for Rio's directors apparently.

Is Rio worth more?

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Continental Airlines, Inc (CAL), Molson Coors Brewing Co (TAP), Watsco, Inc (WSO), K-V Pharmaceutical Co (KV.A), Progressive Corp (PGR) and Color Kinetics (CLRK) were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Goldman downgraded shares of Continental Airlines, Inc (NYSE: CAL) to Neutral from Buy on valuation, higher oil prices and a weak domestic market.

• Goldman also downgraded Molson Coors Brewing Co (NYSE: TAP) to Neutral from Buy based on the increase in analyst estimates, valuation and the potential for margin pressure in the summer.

• BB&T cut Watsco, Inc (NYSE: WSO) to Hold from Buy based on valuation and catalysts that are already reflected in the share price.

• Roth Capital downgraded shares of K-V Pharmaceutical Co (NYSE: KV.A) to Hold from Buy, telling clients they have learned that Par Pharmaceuticals Cos (PRX) has launched generics of 50, 100 and 200mg Toprol-XL. The firm expects a material impact to KV's 100 and 200mg strength generics.

• Stifel expects investor enthusiasm regarding Progressive's Corp (NYSE: PGR) recapitalization plan to fade as underwriting fundamentals deteriorate and cut shares to Sell from Hold.

• Color Kinetics (NASDAQ: CLRK) was downgraded to Hold from Sell at Needham on valuation...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Citigroup cut The Phoenix Co's (NYSE: PNX) to Hold from Buy.

• KeyBank downgraded Lubrizol Corp (NYSE: LZ) to Hold from Buy.

• Goldcorp Inc (NYSE: GG) and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc (NYSE: FCX) were downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital.

• Susquehanna downgraded Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc (NYSE: BBW) to Neutral from Positive.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Intel Corp (INTC), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (AMD), Post Properties, Inc (PPS), Analogic Corp (ALOG) and the base metals sector were today's more noteworthy upgrades:

• DA Davidson raised Intel Corp's (NASDAQ: INTC) rating to Buy from Neutral based on market share gains and unexpected PC growth.

• American Technology upgraded Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NYSE: AMD) to Buy from Neutral as the firm expects shares to trade higher near-term with data not likely to get worse over the next six months. The firm suspects AMD could win a notebook platform at Toshiba Corp (TOSBF) and expects further offerings at Dell Inc (DELL).

• Banc of America upgraded shares of Post Properties Inc (NYSE: PPS) to Neutral from Sell and raised their target to $53 from $42 after REIT Wrap, a real estate industry newsletter, reported the company may have already received several unsolicited bids.

• Stanford upgraded Analogic Corp (NASDAQ: ALOG) to Buy from Hold based on improving fundamentals in the security and medical businesses.

• Goldman upgraded the base metals sector to Attractive from Neutral as the firm believes above-consensus metal prices for 2008-2009 are sustainable. The firm favors copper fundamentals over nickel, zinc and aluminum and views Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc (FCX) as its top pick.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Lehman upgraded Alon USA Energy, Inc (NYSE: ALJ) to Equal Weight from Underweight.

• Bear Stearns upgraded Shanda Interactive Entertainment Ltd (NASDAQ: SNDA) to Outperform from Peer Perform.

• Wesco International, Inc (NYSE: WCC) was upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James.

• BMO Capital raised ResMed Inc (NYSE: RMD) to Outperform from Peer Perform.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

The "Totally Informal Economics Roundtable" (TIER) met this past week -- the esteemed round table achieves a quorum whenever yours truly and my three astute economist friends from graduate school convene to discuss matters economic ... or to celebrate the birthday of one our school-age children, or for another social occasion. This week the topic was the global savings surplus.

Earlier on The FLY and on bloggingstocks.com, the TIER commented on the global savings surplus, or more-broadly, the large and increasing pool of global capital that's spanning the globe in search of return and yield.

It's hard for Americans to think in terms of a "savings surplus" with the U.S. posting a negative savings rate for more than a year, a savings rate well below appropriate levels for an advanced industrial economy, but the world is awash in capital, fed in part by savings. China, Japan, the European Union, and some petro-dollar countries have vast amounts of surplus savings. This fact, combined with a corporate capital base in the U.S. and abroad, has produced a multitude of unexpected consequences -- consequences that have lasted longer than many economists and analysts expected, the TIER agreed.

The first and foremost consequence, the TIER agreed, has been continued low interest rates for long-term bonds, mortgages, and certificates of deposit. Further, although recently released statistics from the Congressional Budget Office indicate the U.S. budget deficit in fiscal 2007 could drop to as low as $150 billion, five consecutive years of plus-$200 billion deficits normally should have led to a crowding-out effect on capital, resulting in higher long-term interest rates. Those high rates did not -- and have not -- materialized, the TIER agreed, due to that foreign savings surplus -- foreigners' willingness to buy U.S. Treasuries while spanning the globe for return and yield.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP), Anglo American plc (AAUK), Shuffle Master, Inc (SHFL), KLA-Tencor Corp (KLAC), and Hershey Foods (HSY) were today's notable downgrades:

• Citigroup cut both BHP Billiton Ltd (NYSE: BHP) and Anglo American ADR (NASDAQ: AAUK) to Hold from Buy.
• Shuffle Master Inc (NASDAQ: SHFL) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman based on valuation and near-term challenges.
• RBC cut KLA-Tencor Corp (NASDAQ: KLAC) to Sector Perform from Outperform citing valuation, concerns related to June order expectations, a slowdown in operating expense reduction and long-term concerns related to process control spending.
• JP Morgan downgraded shares of Hershey Foods Co (NYSE: HSY) to Underweight from Neutral on valuation and concerns about the company's restructuring plan.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Keefe Bruyette downgraded Ameriprise Financial, Inc (NYSE: AMP) to Market Perform from Outperform, citing valuation.
• Merriman cut ValueClick, Inc's (NASDAQ: VCLK) rating to Neutral from Buy as the firm believes Google's (GOOG) acquisition of DoubleClick clouds VCLK's long-term prospects.
• UBS downgraded Supervalu Inc (NYSE: SVU) to Reduce from Neutral based on deteriorated sales trends.
• Morgan Stanley downgraded Southern Copper Corp (NYSE: PCU) to Underweight from Equal Weight based on valuation and a potential miss to Q1 expectations.
• Goldman removed Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc (NYSE: FCX) from its Conviction Buy List, citing valuation.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

The thesis that the global economy is moving toward a multi-polar world, as opposed to one driven primarily by U.S. economic growth, was reinforced Wednesday when the International Monetary Fund lowered its 2007 U.S. GDP growth forecast to 2.2% from 2.9%, while underscoring that it expects the global economy to grow at a much higher 4.9% rate.

For much of the modern industrial area, slow growth in the U.S. meant slow growth for most of the developed world. The relationship helped spawn the economic adage, "When the U.S. economy catches a cold, the world catches pneumonia."

That adage is being tested today, at the dawn of the globalization era, because in 2007 the IMF predicts that every major economic zone in Europe and Asia will grow faster than the U.S. economy in 2007.

If your investment plan is long-term oriented and you can tolerate a moderate risk growth stock, copper/gold mining company Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) may fit the bill. Freeport's stock recently experienced choppiness on a projected slowdown in the global economy. The Reuters first-quarter consensus estimate for FCX calls for revenue of $2.91 billion and EPS of $2.04.

Freeport, whose $26 billion merger with Phelps Dodge in a month ago created the second largest copper company after Chile's Codelco, needs emerging market growth to fully-execute its business model. In that sense, FCX is "levered" to the global economy, in Wall Street's parlance and hence, any malaise that affects emerging markets is likely to result in a downdraft for Freeport.

However, economists now expect global growth to be least 4.00-4.50% in 2007, and probably greater, (barring, of course, another, major geopolitical incident). Further, that adequate global growth should produce continued solid demand for Freeport's primary commodities: copper and gold.

In particular, copper demand is expected to remain robust due to its use in office/home plumbing and electrical wiring. Asia demand is expected to remain strong. Gold is also seeing solid demand from both direct and jewelry applications.

Investment Category: Freeport McMoRan is a moderate-risk growth stock not suitable for low-risk investors. A mining company, FCX's fortunes rise and fall with demand for copper and gold. However, FCX is one of only a handful of miners with a global footprint, a business model that bodes well for patient, long-term investors.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Three consumer financial services companies, CBS Corp (CBS) and Dress Barn, Inc (DBRN) were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Calyon initiated three consumer financial services companies:
  
• American Express Co (NYSE: AXP) was initiated with a Buy rating and $67 target, based on valuation.
  
• Capital One Financial Corp (NYSE: COF) was initiated with an Add rating, as the firm believes shares should be valued in-line with comparable banks, but feels the best investors should hope for is $90/share by year-end given the current market conditions.
  
• MasterCard Inc (NYSE: MA) was started with an Add rating and $123 target, as the firm believes shares should perform well in an environment in which concerns over credit risk remain paramount.

• CBS Corp (NYSE: CBS) was initiated with an Outperform rating at Wachovia, which expects accelerated growth in 2008.

• CIBC started Dress Barn Inc (NASDAQ: DBRN) with a Sector Performer rating, citing valuation.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Lazard initiated Terremark Worldwide, Inc (AMEX: TWW) with a Buy rating and $10 target.

• BB&T assumed coverage of Aaron Rents, Inc (NYSE: RNT) with a Buy rating and $30 target.

• Merrill Lynch reinstated Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc (NYSE: FCX) with a Neutral rating.

• Jefferies started NYMEX Holdings, Inc (NYSE: NMX) with a Hold rating and $140 target on valuation.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

U.S. stocks reversed Wednesday out of their sharp early morning rally after the December minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's FOMC Dec. 12 meeting revealed that voting Federal Reserve members were still concerned about inflation. The Dow closed up 0.06%, NASDAQ 100 up 0.32%, S&P 500 down -0.11%, and the 10-year bond rates decreased to 4.66%. Traders purchased premium pushing the Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX up 0.86 to 12.42 & the Volatility Index NASDAQ 100-VXN up 2.06 to 18.29.

Home Depot May 40 Calls Active; Option Implied Volatility Calm As Nardelli Resigns

The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:HD) announced chairman & CEO Robert Nardelli resigned with a separation package of $210 million. Robert Blake a General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE) alum was named the new Chairman & CEO. Stifel & Company commented: 1) We do not expect dramatic strategic change. Blake has been involved (at HD since 2002) in most aspects of HD's horizontal growth into peripheral markets (supply). 2) We do not think the management change makes a "go private" more or less likely. 2) We believe the move was largely "political."

HD call option volume of 66,794 contracts compares to put volume of 25,652 contracts. HD February option implied volatility of 22 is near its 26-week average, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risks.