Everyone understands that coin flipping is random. You can flip five heads or tails in a row and no one would believe that you are an "expert" coin flipper.

What about fund managers who have five years of stellar performance? You see the ads every Sunday hyping their superior returns.

A closer look at the data indicates that these managers are no more skilled than the lucky coin flipper.

One study looked at the performance of the top 100 fund managers over an eleven year period. Only 14% of them were able to repeat their performance in the following year.

There are many studies demonstrating that there is no reliable way to predict the performance of fund managers. This is why you always see the disclaimer that "past performance is no guarantee of future results" in advertisements for mutual funds. It's put in small type so that you won't pay much attention to it.

Here are a couple of examples (there are hundreds more):

Continue reading No. 1: Rich people know the difference between luck and skill

No. 1: Rich people know the difference between luck and skill originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 02 Dec 2008 20:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.