Continue reading Retailers Enjoy Solid January, Led by Luxury Set

Retailers Enjoy Solid January, Led by Luxury Set originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 05 Feb 2010 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This week, the world's top retailers will tell investors how the much-discussed holiday season went. Analysts expect a year-over-year gain of 1.3% for stores open at least a year, which of course uses a dismal 2008 as a benchmark.

The holiday shopping season is the last chance retailers get to pump up their financial statements before the close of their fiscal year, which usually comes at the end of January. For some retailers, up to 40% of their revenue comes in the weeks heading into Christmas.

Continue reading Retail Results to Come this Week, but Spring Is the Test

Retail Results to Come this Week, but Spring Is the Test originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 03 Jan 2010 13:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The first estimates for the holiday shopping season have come in. MasterCard (MA) Advisors unit SpendingPulse, which tracks retail spending, puts the result at a year-over-year increase of 3.6%. This includes all form of payment and does not factor in gas and auto sales. The increase comes relative to the 2008 holiday season, which was the worst season in decades for retailers thanks to the global financial crisis.

Says Kamalesh Rao, director of economic research at SpendingPulse, "Last year the economy and consumer spending were in free fall. This year we're talking about an environment that has stabilized, that has seen a leveling off." But, that doesn't mean it's turned the corner yet. Holiday spending isn't enough to cure what ails us.

Continue reading Early Estimates for Retail Sales Favor Online

Early Estimates for Retail Sales Favor Online originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 28 Dec 2009 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst Upgrades

• Deutsche Bank upgraded Research in Motion (RIMM) to hold from sell to reflect the company's Q3 results and guidance. The firm raised its target price on shares to $75 from $60.
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Northern Trust (NTRS) and State Street (STT) to outperform from market perform to reflect valuation and favorable longer-term secular trends. The firm keeps a $58 price target on Northern Trust and a $51 target on State Street.
• UBS upgraded Universal Health (UHS) to buy from neutral and raised its target to $38 from $31. The firm said hospital checks indicate bad debt has not increased vs. Q3 and that Universal Health should report an in-line to better-than-expected Q4.
• Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) was upgraded to hold from sell at Kaufman Bros.
• Whiting Petroleum (WLL) was raised to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• BP Plc (BP) was upgraded at Goldman to buy from neutral.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: RIMM, NTRS, STT, UHS, POT, BCR, O, JCI, GPS, WMG

Analyst Calls: RIMM, NTRS, STT, UHS, POT, BCR, O, JCI, GPS, WMG originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 18 Dec 2009 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Stores were busy on Black Friday, as deals lured recession-weary consumers out of their homes. The spending was cautious, but the crowds and transactions signaled strength.

Nonetheless, retailers are still concerned that the momentum is only temporary. With consumer spending still under pressure because of high unemployment, there's a risk that holiday shopping may not reach the levels the stores would like to see. The day after Thanksgiving is usually the hottest of the year and can account for close to 20% of annual retail sales.

Continue reading Black Friday busy, but momentum may not hold

Black Friday busy, but momentum may not hold originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 28 Nov 2009 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

There's a chill in the air and a slight up-tick in confidence. Holiday discounts are coming a bit earlier, too. For retailers, this has been a great combination, leading to the second consecutive month in which retail sales increased.

This follows more than a year of drops. Consumers aren't going crazy, but they are loosening their wallets a little bit. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy, and the coming holiday season is where the action is -- for the retail sector and, consequently, for everyone else.

Continue reading Retail sales: Signs of life, but not yet a rising tide

Retail sales: Signs of life, but not yet a rising tide originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 06 Nov 2009 11:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Retail sales were down for the twelfth month in a row in August, according to an Associated Press report. Consumers stayed focused on what they need rather than what they want, as unemployment remains high and even those employed worry about the future of their jobs.

The silver lining, though, is that the coming holiday season might not be as bad as many thought.

Some retailers actually showed gains. TJMaxx (NYSE: TJX) and Old Navy, a Gap (NYSE: GPS) company, for example, saw year-over-year sales increases, though upscale stores generally sustained declines. The action on the discount side could be an early sign that the consumer is ready to play.

Continue reading Twelve straight months of retail sales declines

Twelve straight months of retail sales declines originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 04 Sep 2009 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Gap Stores (NYSE: GPS) is expected to report EPS on November 21. GPS December option implied volatility of 41 is above its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.

Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM), a home-furnishings retailer, is expected to report Q3 EPS of 24 cents on November 15. RBCM says, "Macros very difficult; too soon for longs, but scarcity value could increase." WSM November 30 straddle is priced at $2.80. WSM December option implied volatility of 55 is above its 26-week average of 38 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option update 11-14-07: At two-year high, Gap (GPS) volatility up ahead of earnings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 14 Nov 2007 08:53:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

10 CEO's That Need To Go: 3 Down, 7 Remain originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 01 Feb 2007 11:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Gap Inc. (NYSE:GPS) said net sales of $1.40 billion in November was a 2% decrease from the year-ago November sales month. With holiday shopping already at full-throttle by November, this strikes me as odd. The Gap also reported an 8% decrease in same-store sales this November, compared with half the amount, or 4% reported for the same period last year.

I was traveling at the end of November and saw a Gap store brimming with sales, long lines and stressed clerks, so at least one store in the Midwest seemed to be doing well. I think Gap's Old Navy division was doing more business, but the combined results still pour into a single company balance sheet.

With clothing retailers Kohl's and J.C.Penneys showing results that pumped up same-store sales results for November, I guess Gap's clothing-only business didn't fare as well as the department store approach.

When these numbers were released, Sabrina Simmons, senior vice president of corporate finance at The Gap Inc. said, "Overall, November was a challenging month as negative traffic trends persisted .. promotional and markdown activities at Gap and Old Navy drove total company merchandise margins below last year, and we expect pressure on merchandise margins to continue into December."

The Gap, Inc. same-store sales plunge in November originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 07 Dec 2006 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.