Fourth quarter GDP ended on a uptrend, coming in at 3.1%. The state of the economy was healthy and it looked like growth would continue to match or exceed Q4. Based on that scenario, Bank of America (BAC) analyst Ethan Harris, forecast first-quarter 2011 GDP to come in at 3.3%.

But in the few short months of 2011, the world is getting turned upside down. The conflict in Libya has cut OPEC oil production and sent oil prices skyrocketing. In turn, the price of gasoline is nearing $4.00 per gallon. And food processors are raising prices due to higher raw commodity prices. These two factors have put a dent in the household budget.

This past week's data point of significance for investors has to be the revised, final, fourth quarter U.S. GDP report, which indicated the world's largest economy grew 3.1% in the quarter, as well as 2.9% for 2010.

In 2009, the U.S. economy contracted 2.6% during the Great Recession -- the worst downturn since the Great Depression -- and even though the final 3.1% fourth quarter stat was better than the 2.8% previously estimated fourth quarter growth rate, the growth pace still is not strong enough.

This past week's data point of significance for investors has to be the February nonfarm payroll report by the U.S. Department of Labor, which indicated that the U.S. economy created 192,000 jobs last month -- roughly in-line with the consensus estimate.

The good news was complemented by the fact that January's job gain was revised up to 63,000 from 36,000 and December's to 152,000 from 121,000. January's low job tally was probably skewed lower by the winter blizzards and storms that hit the Northeast and Midwest; hence, it's safe to say that the economy is creating jobs. What it needs now is sustained demand to drive GDP growth, which will lead to stronger job growth.

U.S. stock futures are higher Friday morning as crude oil prices stabilized. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 55 points to 12,092.00, while those for the S&P 500 index climbed 7 points to 1,309.70. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index rose 15.50 points to 2,323.75.

U.S. stock market closed mixed yesterday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 37.28 points, the Nasdaq Composite gaining 14.91 points and the S&P 500 declining 1.30 points.

With earnings season in full swing, the FOMC meeting on interest rates, the GDP estimate, and housing numbers due out, the coming week is shaping up to be a busy one. So here's a peek at what's on the economic calendar.

Monday

Quarterly reports from American Express (AXP) and McDonald's (MCD) will highlight Monday. Amgen (AMGN), CSX (CSX), Halliburton (HAL) and Texas Instruments (TXN) are also expected to report strong earnings results.

In projecting U.S. GDP growth at about a 2% rate for the remainder of this year and in 2011, I have noted that the two propellants of growth so far in this economic recovery -- the inventory revival and fiscal stimuli -- are largely exhausted.

But are there other sectors of the economy that might serve as the backbone of any meaningful economic recovery? I don't see any, especially with U.S. consumers continuing their saving spree, repaying debts and remaining hesitant to spend like they did during the boom times of earlier years.

Analyst Upgrades

• Ryder (R) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• HCP (HCP) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Hertz Global (HTZ) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Lincoln National (LNC) to buy from neutral and T. Rowe Price (TROW) to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Protective Life (PL) and Janus Capital (JNS) to neutral from sell at Goldman.
• Newell Rubbermaid (NWL) to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• National Instruments (NATI) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Team Health (TMH) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.

Analyst Upgrades

• Amgen (AMGN) to overweight from neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• Goodrich Petroleum (GDP) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Tutor Perini (TPC) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Covidien (COV) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Sara Lee (SLE) and Comcast (CMCSA) to outperform from market perform at Bernstein.
• Research In Motion (RIMM) to outperform from sector perform at FBN Securities.

I am projecting U.S. GDP growth at about a 2% rate for the remainder of this year and in 2011. The two propellants of growth so far in this economic recovery -- the inventory revival and fiscal stimuli -- are largely exhausted.

The ending of inventory liquidation and their rebuilding in the past five quarters, starting with the third quarter of 2009, accounted for 58.5% of the overall gain of 3.6% in real GDP. Conversely, real final sales (real GDP ex inventories) grew just 1.4% in the last five quarters and were responsible for less than half the rise in real GDP, 48.2%.

In my new book, The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for an Era of Slow Growth and Deflation, I discuss nine reasons for slow U.S. economic growth and real GDP gains of about 2% annually in the long run.

1. U.S. consumers will shift from a 25-year borrowing-and-spending binge to a saving spree. This will spread abroad as American consumers curtail the imports of the goods and services many foreign nations depend on for economic growth.

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index is a little known index that tracks diesel fuel consumption to use as a proxy for economic activity.

On Tuesday, the index will show a small 0.4% gain following three months of decline, The Wall Street Journal reports. The rolling average has declined for three of the past four months, breaking 13 straight month of gains.

Investors -- certainly U.S. stock investors -- would be wise to keep one eye on the price of oil, currently pushing $90 per barrel. Oil traded up 10 cents to $89.29 on Monday at mid-day.

And the reason is obvious enough: once again, oil is approaching the danger zone, from a U.S. GDP growth standpoint.

No one knows precisely at what point oil begins to substantially hinder consumer spending and slow commercial activity -- but this much is known: every $1 per barrel rise in oil decreases U.S. GDP by $100 billion per year and every 1 cent increase in gasoline decreases U.S. consumer disposable income by about $600 million per year.

Among the quarterly results scheduled for this holiday-shortened week, investors may be thankful for the earnings results from Tyson Foods (TSN). The Arkansas-based poultry and meat producer reported on its sustainability efforts and also was named McDonalds' (MCD) supplier of the year during its fiscal fourth quarter. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters forecast earnings for that period to have doubled from a year ago to 56 cents per share.

Tyson is also expected to post revenue of $7.8 billion for the three months that ended in September, which is 7.4% more than in the same period of fiscal 2009. And the consensus estimate for the full year calls for earnings of $2.08 per share (+87.0%) and revenue of $28.7 billion (+7.3%). Tyson's earnings have been better than expected in recent quarters, beating consensus estimates by as much as 24 cents per share.

Investors, understandably, have taken a skeptical stance toward the U.S. housing sector. Moreover, given the debacle known as the 2007-2009 bursting of the U.S. housing bubble, it's normal for even typical, prospective home owners to doubt if this once fairly-reliable asset class will return to normal appreciation rates of 4% to 7% per year.

Further, the above begs the question: should the nation and Americans continue to rely on the housing sector as an engine of growth? Or is the nation better-served if tax breaks, such as the longstanding home mortgage interest deduction, are shifted to other sectors/investments?

The earnings crunch continues this week, and analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are anticipating lots of strong quarterly reports.

For example, year-over-year earnings growth from big oil Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), ExxonMobil (XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) are expected to be in double digits. The same is true of many other energy and mining concerns reporting this week: Allegheny Technologies (ATI), Alliant Energy (LNT), Arch Coal (ACI), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), CMS Energy (CMS), CONSOL Energy (CNX), DPL (DPL), Hess Corp. (HES), Minerals Technologies (MTX), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), PPL Corp. (PPL), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Total (TOT), Whiting Petroleum (WLL), Williams Companies (WMB) and Wisconsin Energy (WEC).