gdp posts
FeedPosted Nov 2nd 2009 5:30PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Politics, Recession, Financial Crisis
New York Times (NYSE:
NYT) columnist
Paul Krugman argues quite persuasively that the major problem with the fiscal stimulus package was that it was too small, given the financial crisis and the large economic crater the accompanying, pronounced recession created.
Further, the fiscal stimulus' many benefits -- including substantial job retention in essential public services such as education -- are harder to see and not likely to translate into too much political gain for President Obama and Congressional Democrats, he said. That's consistent with a political science axiom -- often repeated by U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, D-Massachusetts -- that
"Congress gets little credit or benefit for averting something." Indeed, retained jobs are hard to see, and the fact that a local public school system is is still operating with as many teachers is an accomplishment, but one that most American voters will take for granted, and not give Democrats credit for.
Continue reading Fiscal stimulus package's primary flaw: It was too small
Posted Oct 31st 2009 11:40AM by Tom Johansmeyer (RSS feed)
Filed under: Kellogg Co (K), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Procter and Gamble (PG), Economic data
Consumer spending had its largest fall this year, thanks to the end of the "Cash for Clunkers" program. And, incomes were flat. No change to the money coming in and a drop in the cash going out translates to an impediment to economic recovery.
In September, consumer spending fell 0.5%, the first decline in five months and the worst in nine. Wages and salaries dropped 0.2%, effectively offsetting the 0.2% up-tick in August. The economy did grow in the third quarter of 2009, hinting that the worst recession in 70 years may be coming to a close, but the tough September suggests we still have some work in front of us.
Continue reading Bad September, good Q3 for consumer spending, what's next?
Posted Oct 29th 2009 9:35AM by Mark Fightmaster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Before the bell, Good news

It appears that the U.S. economy may finally be dragging itself out of the economic doldrums. At least, that is what the third-quarter Gross Domestic Product indicates. The GDP showed that the
U.S. economy grew at a 3.5% annual pace in the third quarter, snapping a four-quarter contraction streak.
The growth is attributed to the massive government stimulus, which led to higher consumer spending. In addition, a reduction in inventories and robust government spending helped spur growth in the third quarter. But even excluding the influence of auto sales, production and inventories, the economy grew 1.9 percent last quarter.
Continue reading Third-quarter GDP shows growth -- is the recession over?
Posted Oct 25th 2009 1:00PM by Michael Shulman (RSS feed)
Filed under: Economic data, Recession
Do you see a rebound?
The Mall of America would be a great practice field for the Minnesota Vikings, fall and winter clothes are already 40% off at Macy's, and the Palms in Vegas is mailing me coupons.
Recently, I went out to eat with some friends: One owns a construction business that has come to a standstill; two are media types out of work; and one is the owner of a small manufacturing company, who is laying people off as fast as she can and is now worried about her own survival. And I'm sure you've heard similar tales of woes from your family, friends and neighbors.
Continue reading Reason #10: Take a good look around
Posted Oct 24th 2009 12:00PM by Michael Shulman (RSS feed)
Filed under: Recession
A fear of a loss of income will continue to squelch consumer spending. Most people I know are fearful about their futures -- i.e., losing their jobs or seeing a cut in commissions, profits, or wages. This means they will hang on to their pennies in 2010.
Bottom line: Consumers drive 70% of GDP, and a meaningful recovery will not happen without their dollars.
Next: Reason #4: Changing consumer attitudes
Posted Oct 16th 2009 4:20PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Forecasts, China
One of the world's leading investors is cautioning investors large and small not to expect the world's largest economy to be the primary engine of growth for the world, as it has in previous, post-World War II expansions.
Billionaire investor George Soros said the United States will be a drag on global growth, Reuters reported Friday.
Further, Soros, speaking at a forum sponsored by The Economist magazine held at the New York Stock Exchange, said if market fundamentals determined it, the U.S. dollar should be falling against China's currency, the yuan, which would allow the U.S. to contain its current account deficit, Reuters reported.
Continue reading Soros: U.S. economy will be a drag on global growth
Posted Oct 9th 2009 5:30PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Recession


White House Economic Adviser Lawrence Summers is taking issue with those who are convinced the U.S. economy in the intervention era will achieve decidedly lower rates of GDP growth -- the so-called 'new normal' economy.
"I would be very reluctant to accept the idea that the American economy no longer has the potential to grow rapidly," Summers
told Bloomberg News. "The American people have not become less capable of entrepreneurship. They have not become less dedicated to hard work, and the productive potential of this economy has not declined."
Continue reading Summers rejects 'new normal' slow U.S. GDP growth forecasts
Posted Sep 30th 2009 6:20PM by Michael Fowlkes (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major movement, Forecasts, Good news, Market matters, Money and Finance Today, S and P 500, DJIA, Housing, Recession

The market was able to stage a late day rally which erased some of its earlier losses, but still ended the day in the red, with all
3 major indexes closing down on the day.
September is typically not a good month for the market, but even with today's losses this September was positive, as more and more investors have started to believe the economy is coming out of its recession.
Continue reading Market ends the day lower, but up for the month
Posted Sep 27th 2009 12:30PM by Trey Thoelcke (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings reports, Forecasts, Darden Restaurants (DRI), NIKE, Inc'B' (NKE), Economic data
Autumn has arrived and the quarter winds down this week. The Dow has been inching toward 10,000 for a while now, though it closed lower in the past three sessions. Can it make it to 10,000 for the start of the third quarter? If so, what will push it higher? If not, what will drag it down further?
Continue reading The week in preview: Is the rally over?
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