Are the world's major central banks signaling an end to interest rate cut cycle?
Officials from three of the four major central banks - - all except the Bank of Japan - - have recently signaled their concern about rising inflation stemming from rate cuts implemented to stimulate demand following the credit crisis, Bloomberg News reported Friday. The U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank have commented, in various phraseologies, their concerns about prices and business costs.
Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks investors/traders can ignore comments out of the ECB, but not the Fed's or the BOE's - - which translates to at least a rate cut pause.
"[ECB President Jean-Claude] Trichet has been on the wires commenting on the need to contain prices, but he's been doing that since, I think, 1962, so ignore that," Wang said. "But the Fed comment blitz we had earlier this week and the Bank of England comments about rising prices I think are clear signals of a rate cut pause. The central banks have implemented enough monetary stimulus, for now."
U.S. consumer confidence in May 2008 plunged to its lowest level in almost 28 years, an indication American adults are very concerned about the near-term health of the U.S. economy as it slides into its first recession in six years.
It was the index's lowest reading since June 1980 -- a period also characterized by high oil/gasoline prices and a sluggish U.S. economy.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had predicted that the April 2008 index would fall to 62.5. The index stood at 63.2 in April 2008 and 69.5 in March 2008.
'An awful number'
Economist Peter Dawson told BloggingStocks Friday May's consumer sentiment reading reflects conditions on the ground. "It's an awful number, but it reflects conditions on Main Street, as the typical person experiences them," Dawson said. "We've got falling home prices, record-high gas prices, rising food prices, property taxes increasing in many areas, and no job growth. It's not a happy time for Americans right now and the University of Michigan sentiment numbers reflect that."
Euro-zone GDP increased 0.7% in Q4 2008, 0.2 percentage points above the Bloomberg News survey consensus estimate.
Germany served as the primary economic engine, recording 1.5% in the quarter – its fastest growth in 12 years, Bloomberg News reported Thursday. Meanwhile, France registered 0.6% GDP growth. Together, Germany and France account for about 50% of the euro-zone's GDP.
On a year-over-year basis, euro-zone GDP increased 2.2% in the 15-nation group. Growth in the 27-nation European Union increased 2.4%.
However, despite the upside GDP surprise from both the euro-zone and Germany, key economic officials downplayed the results. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet told Reuters the news, while positive, simply confirmed what he had expected – that Q1 2008 would be good and the ensuing period slower.
A hint by Trichet?
Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Thursday there could be a glimmer of hope for those who favor an interest rate reduction by the ECB. It was unusual for the ECB's Trichet to reference slower growth after the release of a GDP report, he said. Trichet, an inflation hawk, regularly speaks of Europe's industrial capacity and price pressures in the context of GDP, Wang said.
"I don't know if this was a hint, or perhaps a mini-hint, regarding monetary policy," Wang said. The currency market shrugged-off Trichet's comments, with both the euro and British pound remaining at essentially the same levels they were earlier in the day versus the dollar, at $1.5440 and $1.9445, respectively.
Further, factory output plummeted 0.8% - - the largest drop in factory output since September 2005, a month that reflected the abnormal, irregular factory output reduction caused by Hurricane Katrina in the late summer of 2005. Excluding autos and auto parts, factory output declined 0.4%.
Also, capacity utilization increase declined to 79.7% in April 2008 from 80.4% in March 2008. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected capacity utilization to total 80.1% in April 2008. Capacity utilization totaled 80.3% in February 2008.
Industrial output evaluation
Economist David H. Wang said the April 2008 industrial production statistic reflects a familiar theme in the current U.S. economic slowdown: a contracting factory sector.
U.S. business inventories rose a scant 0.1% in March 2008 (pdf), the U.S. Commerce Department announced Tuesday -- the smallest inventory rise in a year.
Also, the March 2008 inventory-to-sales ratio declined to 1.27. Meanwhile, the February 2008 business inventory statistic was revised higher to an increase of 0.2%.
Inventories: Two-sided stat
Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Tuesday the March 2008 inventory data can be interpreted two ways, with positive and negative dimensions.
On the one hand, businesses are keeping inventories at a bare minimum -- a fact that typically is bearish, short-term, for the U.S. economy, Wang said. "It can reflect a lack of business confidence in the economy's ability to grow in the short run," he said.
On the other hand, those same lean inventories mean that any sustained increase in demand will require businesses to ramp-up production quickly -- a phenomenon that generally limits the length of a recession / economic downturn, Wang said.
Another positive dimension to lean inventories: companies will not have to trim as many employees if the U.S. economy slows further. "In all, this month's inventory report contained a lukewarm stat," Wang said. "The best aspect of it is, businesses are prepared for a further downturn in the economy, should it occur."
Activity in the futures market may be pointing to a dollar rally, but that rally is off to an inauspicious start.
The dollar Monday fell about 1.2 cents versus the euro to $1.5522 and about 1 cent versus the British pound to $1.9570, even while a key currency futures indicator turned dollar bullish for the first time in more than 2 years.
Net dollar longs by hedge funds and other currency traders/investors totaled 21,315 on April 29, 2008, according to data released by Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington, Bloomberg News reported Monday; there were net dollar short positions in each of the previous 123 weeks.
China Monday ordered its banks to increase its reserve ratio for the fourth time this year, in an attempt to quell rising inflation, Bloomberg News reported.
Banks in China must now park 16.5% of deposits with the central bank, up from 16%, the Peoples Bank of China announced Monday. The change is effective May 20, 2008.
Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Monday the monetary policy tightening by the central bank was the right move, "and more monetary policy tightening is on the way."
"Central banks in and outside of China are coming to the realization that slower Chinese growth will help all governments regain control of commodity prices, to a certain degree, and higher reserves for banks is part of that slowing process," Wang said. "The higher reserve rate will slow China's economy, lowering commodity demand and inflation."
China's economy grew at a 10.6% annualized pace in Q1 2008, its 10th consecutive quarter of double-digit GDP growth. Meanwhile, inflation rose at annualized rate of 8.7% in February 2008.
Wang said he expects China to increase its bank reserve rate "gradually to 18.5-19% by early 2009" if inflation does not show signs of moderating, adding that an increase in China's key, short-term lending, currently at 7.47%, also is likely. Less government action is expected regarding China's floating band-based currency, the yuan, presently trading around 7 yuan to the dollar, he said.
U.K. home repossession claims by mortgage lenders increased 16% from a year ago to their highest level since the early 1990s, Bloomberg News reported Friday.
The U.K.'s Ministry of Justice said possession claims, the first step in the foreclosure process, increased to 38,688 in Q1 2008, from 27,530 in Q1 2007, Bloomberg News reported. Anglo-American housing slump
London-based economist Mark Chandler told BloggingStocks Friday the large foreclosure rise indicates that the air is easing out of the housing balloon, and that the housing correction that began in the United States, is "clearly washing shore in the U.K."
The U.S. trade deficit fell substantially in March 2008, to $58.2 billion, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Thursday, as the slowing U.S. economy reduced consumer demand for imported automobiles, furniture and consumer goods, among other categories.
The March 2008 trade statistic was the lowest trade gap since November 2003, the Commerce Department said.
The February 2008 trade deficit was revised lower to $61.7 billion from $62.3 billion. The trade deficit was $59.0 billion in January 2008.
In March 2008, nominal imports decreased 2.9% to $206.7 billion, while nominal exports fell 1.7% to $148.5 billion.
Slowing U.S. economy weighs
Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Friday the March 2008 trade report clearly displays the effects of a slowing U.S. economy.
"We see a clear pullback in domestic demand in March [2008], and the core import number was down 3%, so that's indicative of fewer consumers making purchases, which is consistent with belt-tightening and U.S. payroll reductions," Wang said. "It's clear now our nation is demanding less from international suppliers, which will have a negative effect on their economies, as well."
When one travels in economists' circles, one tends to tap into the issues, controversies and policy ideas 'dismal science' practitioners are debating.
And one issue economists have rattled around concerns the speed of fiscal policy stimulus, or more accurately, the lack thereof. In the digital age, the internet has propelled a host of speed-enhancing changes, and it occurred to this group of economists that U.S. Government policy is decidedly behind the curve in this area.
Here's why: economist David H. Wang noted that the U.S., in an attempt to jump-start its economy stalled by the nation's worst housing slump in more than 15 years, has implemented a host of monetary policy changes to provide monetary stimulus quicker. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut key, short-term interests multiple times during a 10-week span (and later implemented additional rate cuts), and devised two, new, Fed-administered institutions to address the credit crisis, provide liquidity, and ensure the orderly operation of financial markets.
Growth is slowing in all regions of the world, and inflation is rising, but the International Monetary Fund's No. 2 person in charge says a repeat of the 1970s stagflation period isn't likely.
IMF First Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky said the "inflation speed-up must be taken seriously as it creates potentially significant challenges to economic stability," Bloomberg News reported Thursday. However, Lipsky added that a return to 1970s-style stagflation isn't likely, but it cannot be totally ruled out.
Oil, commodity-rooted inflation
Further, Lipsky underscored that the current inflation rise is being driven by a fundamental increase in demand for commodities, primarily oil, and to a lesser extent by supply constraints around the world, Thomson Financial reported Thursday via Forbes.com. Hence, the recent price increases are likely to prove finite, Lipsky added, unless these items keep rising more rapidly than other items.
Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Thursday he agreed with Lipsky's categorization of the most-recent rise in inflation but added that government subsidies may prevent a pullback in commodity prices, especially oil. Classic economic theory holds that as the price of a good rises, people will use less of it. However, governments in China, Venezuela and the Middle East, among other nations, subsidize gasoline/fuel, lowering its cost, which discourages conservation, Wang said. The United States does not subsidize motor fuel at the federal level, but individual states do subsidize heating oil/natural gas for low-income citizens.
The European Central Bank and the Bank of England Thursday each kept their key, short-term interest rates the same, at 4% and 5%, respectively, the banks announced. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected both the ECB and BOE to maintain current interest rate levels.
In its previous meeting, the ECB had kept its benchmark interest the same at 4%; meanwhile, the BOE lowered its key rate by 25 basis points to 5% from 5.25% on 10 April 2008.
In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered its key, short-term interest rate five times, or by 325 basis points, to 2% from 5.25%, as it attempts to jump-start a U.S. economy dragged to near-stall levels by its worst housing slump in a generation.
Further, for at least the time being, the ECB and BOE do not appear to be concerned about the euro's and the pound's steady, two-year rise versus the dollar. The euro traded at $1.5383 and the pound at $1.9583 in Thursday morning trading; each is about 4% off its 2008 highs.
The dollar rallied to a six-week high Wednesday after U.S. productivity increased at a larger-than-expected rate and sentiment surfaced that Europe's economy may have slowed considerably.
The dollar rose about 2 cents versus the euro -- a large move in the currency market -- to $1.5370 on Wednesday afternoon. The dollar also gained against the world's other major currencies, rising about 2 cents to $1.9530 versus the British poundת about 0.5 cents to $1.0555 versus the Swiss franc and about one-half yen to 104.85 yen versus Japan's yen. U.S. productivity gives dollar a lift
Independent currency trader Andrew Resnick told BloggingStocks Wednesday the Q1 2008 productivity data, combined with a sense that the European Central Bank is behind-the-curve concerning interest rate cuts to deal with slowing economic growth, put traders in dollar-buy mode.
The NAR's existing home sales index declined to 83.0 in March 2008. The index totaled a revised 83.8 in February 2008, and stood at 103.9 in March 2007.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the March 2008 existing home sales index to drop to 83.8%.
Regional conditions vary
Conditions varied by region. In the Midwest, the index fell 10.4% in March 2008 to 74.1; in the West, the index fell 1.4% to 91.2, and in the South, it fell 0.1% to 84.9. In the Northeast, the index rose 12.5% to 80.8%.
Activity in the futures market may be pointing to a dollar rally, but that rally is off to an inauspicious start.
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The dollar rallied to a six-week high Wednesday after U.S. productivity increased at a larger-than-expected rate and sentiment surfaced that Europe's economy may have slowed considerably. 
Sales of existing homes in fell 1.0% in March 2008, the 
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