New York Times (NYSE: NYT) columnist Paul Krugman argues quite persuasively that the major problem with the fiscal stimulus package was that it was too small, given the financial crisis and the large economic crater the accompanying, pronounced recession created.

Further, the fiscal stimulus' many benefits -- including substantial job retention in essential public services such as education -- are harder to see and not likely to translate into too much political gain for President Obama and Congressional Democrats, he said. That's consistent with a political science axiom -- often repeated by U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, D-Massachusetts -- that "Congress gets little credit or benefit for averting something." Indeed, retained jobs are hard to see, and the fact that a local public school system is is still operating with as many teachers is an accomplishment, but one that most American voters will take for granted, and not give Democrats credit for.

Consumer spending had its largest fall this year, thanks to the end of the "Cash for Clunkers" program. And, incomes were flat. No change to the money coming in and a drop in the cash going out translates to an impediment to economic recovery.

In September, consumer spending fell 0.5%, the first decline in five months and the worst in nine. Wages and salaries dropped 0.2%, effectively offsetting the 0.2% up-tick in August. The economy did grow in the third quarter of 2009, hinting that the worst recession in 70 years may be coming to a close, but the tough September suggests we still have some work in front of us.

This morning, the White House reported that President Obama's stimulus package has created or saved 650,000 jobs -- of course, this time the Obama Administration promises that the new figures will be "more accurate" than in the past. As for the jobs saved or created, the administration based its finds on roughly $150 billion in spending from the $787 billion stimulus package. These "more accurate" numbers are taken from state reports and private companies. The White House did note that the actual number of jobs created thus far is "likely closer to 1 million" because this report looked at only $150 billion of the $339 billion invested in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funds spent.

Today was all about much better than expected GDP reports. The lackluster jobless claims failed to even make a ripple after the GDP marked an unofficial end of the recession. The market absorbed over $500 million in secondary offerings like it was a stick of butter being put on a giant baked potato.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 9,960.54 +197.85 (2.03%)
S&P 500 1,065.81 +23.18 (2.22%)
Nasdaq 2,097.55 +37.94 (1.84%)

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TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer still doesn't like this market -- the good GDP figure isn't enough to sustain us.

You know when you have gotten too negative? When you pick up the paper and the lead story is "Slump Sinks Visa Program," and you say, "That's it! I can't take it ... Visa was the one bright spot in my portfolio, and now they've taken that away!"

Then you read the story and you know it is not about bank fee rates or credit card usage or congressional bashing for once, but about a skilled workers program. It has nothing to do with the red-hot Visa (NYSE: V) (Cramer's Take) at all.

It appears that the U.S. economy may finally be dragging itself out of the economic doldrums. At least, that is what the third-quarter Gross Domestic Product indicates. The GDP showed that the U.S. economy grew at a 3.5% annual pace in the third quarter, snapping a four-quarter contraction streak.

The growth is attributed to the massive government stimulus, which led to higher consumer spending. In addition, a reduction in inventories and robust government spending helped spur growth in the third quarter. But even excluding the influence of auto sales, production and inventories, the economy grew 1.9 percent last quarter.

Do you see a rebound?

The Mall of America would be a great practice field for the Minnesota Vikings, fall and winter clothes are already 40% off at Macy's, and the Palms in Vegas is mailing me coupons.

Recently, I went out to eat with some friends: One owns a construction business that has come to a standstill; two are media types out of work; and one is the owner of a small manufacturing company, who is laying people off as fast as she can and is now worried about her own survival. And I'm sure you've heard similar tales of woes from your family, friends and neighbors.

A fear of a loss of income will continue to squelch consumer spending. Most people I know are fearful about their futures -- i.e., losing their jobs or seeing a cut in commissions, profits, or wages. This means they will hang on to their pennies in 2010.

Bottom line: Consumers drive 70% of GDP, and a meaningful recovery will not happen without their dollars.

Next: Reason #4: Changing consumer attitudes

One of the world's leading investors is cautioning investors large and small not to expect the world's largest economy to be the primary engine of growth for the world, as it has in previous, post-World War II expansions.

Billionaire investor George Soros said the United States will be a drag on global growth, Reuters reported Friday.

Further, Soros, speaking at a forum sponsored by The Economist magazine held at the New York Stock Exchange, said if market fundamentals determined it, the U.S. dollar should be falling against China's currency, the yuan, which would allow the U.S. to contain its current account deficit, Reuters reported.

Good news! Private economists recently polled said they expect Q3 GDP to rise at an annualized rate of 3.2%. This is indeed a nice surprise.

In the second quarter, GDP shrank by 0.7% on an annual rate.

The rebound was mainly due to a rebound in personal consumption expenditures, the first increase in residential investment since the final quarter of 2005, and the reduced rate of business inventory reduction.

White House Economic Adviser Lawrence Summers is taking issue with those who are convinced the U.S. economy in the intervention era will achieve decidedly lower rates of GDP growth -- the so-called 'new normal' economy.

"I would be very reluctant to accept the idea that the American economy no longer has the potential to grow rapidly," Summers told Bloomberg News. "The American people have not become less capable of entrepreneurship. They have not become less dedicated to hard work, and the productive potential of this economy has not declined."

The market was able to stage a late day rally which erased some of its earlier losses, but still ended the day in the red, with all 3 major indexes closing down on the day.

September is typically not a good month for the market, but even with today's losses this September was positive, as more and more investors have started to believe the economy is coming out of its recession.

Oil prices have risen sharply today, despite news that oil inventories rose more than expected last week.

Traders pushed oil up $2.92 a barrel Tuesday to $69.63 even though oil inventories rose by 2.8 million barrels last week verse analyst estimates for a rise of 2.1 million barrels.

The Commerce Department released GDP numbers today for the second quarter, and showed that the economy shrank less than expected for the April - June period.

According to today's report, second quarter GDP figures dropped by 0.7%. Before the report, analysts had been expecting to see that GDP actually dropped by 1.1%, providing some fresh evidence that the economy will probably start growing again during the second half of the year.

Autumn has arrived and the quarter winds down this week. The Dow has been inching toward 10,000 for a while now, though it closed lower in the past three sessions. Can it make it to 10,000 for the start of the third quarter? If so, what will push it higher? If not, what will drag it down further?

• Monday is Yom Kippur, the most solemn of the Jewish holidays; trading likely will be lighter than usual. In the evening, the FDIC meets to discuss how to rebuild the Bank Deposit Insurance Fund.
• Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence Index for September is due and the SEC holds a public meeting to consider more short sale actions.