Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the just released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

Every investor would love to own a stock that doesn't have surprises, makes earnings grow every quarter and raises the dividend annually. At least sane investors do. Others go after hope and promises (no profits yet, but coming, we promise) and sleepless nights. This column isn't for them. It's for the ones looking for a stock that doesn't exist.

If there's ever been a final nail put in the coffin of the myth that there's a stock that couldn't possibly fail, it's Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac wielding the hammer. Every respected columnist and pundit wrote glowingly of these two a year ago. How well capitalized they were. How large they were. How they were the engine that made the mortgage market go. And above all else: they had the implied guarantee from the Federal Government behind them AND THAT THEY COULDN'T BE ALLOWED TO FAIL. There was no way they could fail. No way.

Now we know different. They haven't failed, but shareholders have a hard time finding solace in shares selling for 85 cents a share, ones they bought at $35 a share last year. Many people will say: serves them right. They took a risk, and it didn't work out. If these two giants had made money, shareholders would have made money as well. No question. In the stock market, you take a risk for the reward. Sometimes you take it for the loss.

Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson announced over the weekend that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are being placed into conservatorship. The government is injecting capital into the entities and assuming responsibility for the senior debt. It also receiving warrants in both entities. The status of the common and preferred shareholders is tenuous, and it is highly unlikely that they will receive much in the end.

The equity markets have received this news with euphoria and are up substantially across the board. Everyone appears to be hoping that this move breaks the logjam that is currently affecting the credit markets. They are also anticipating that this move will help to stabilize the housing market.

I believe that this move will accomplish both of these objectives in the short term. The current situation could not continue without a potential financial meltdown occurring. In essence, the government had no choice but to take these steps. One can argue over the exact details but not over the actual move itself.

Barron's (subscription required) cites a government source who warns that absent raising at least $10 billion in capital each, Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) common and preferred shareholders will be wiped out or severely wounded in a government takeover of the two government-sponsored entities (GSEs).

The problem with Fannie and Freddie is that depending on how you count the beans, their liabilities are worth more than their assets. Using so-called fair value accounting -- which marks their assets and liabilities to immediate market value -- Fannie is worth $12.5 billion (a sliver of equity supporting $2.8 trillion in assets) and Freddie has a negative net worth of $5.6 billion. Others calculate that both have a negative net worth of $50 billion.

The Bush administration wants to gut these GSEs (they're Democratic strongholds). How will the GSEs perish? Barron's reports that if Fannie and Freddie fail to raise at least $10 billion in fresh capital, the administration is "likely to mount its own recapitalization, with Treasury infusing taxpayer money into the enterprises. The infusion would take the form of a preferred stock with such seniority, dividend preference and convertibility rights that Fannie's and Freddie's existing common shares effectively would be wiped out, and their preferred shares left bereft of dividends." But wait, there's more.

A government bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would cost U.S. taxpayers $25 billion over the next two years under a plan being proposed by the Bush administration, according to an analysis by the Congressional Budget Office.

The July 14th proposal by the administration would grant the Secretary of the Treasury temporary authority to purchase obligations and other securities issued by Fannie, Freddie and the Federal Home Loan Banks. Congress is expected to vote on the proposal soon.

CBO used historical data to estimate expected losses on the different types of credit risk the GSE's (government-sponsored enterprises) have in their portfolios.

Today would be described as being choppy disappointment at best. The markets started out strong on a government bailout proposal for GSE's but traders went right back to shorting financials on big gap ups. After today, we'll get major earnings reports coming on a non-stop basis and tomorrow we'll also start to see some key data around producer prices tomorrow morning. Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:
DJIA 11,052.10 (-48.44)
S&P500 1,228.02 (-11.46)
NASDAQ 2,212.87 (-26.21)
10YR T-Note 3.88% (-0.06%)
52-WEEK LOWS
TOP ANALYST UPGRADES
TOP ANALYST DOWNGRADES

Anheuser-Busch Companies, Inc. (NYSE: BUD) saw a gain as the company finally capitulated and agreed to be acquired now that InBev boosted its buyout offer price to $70.00 from $65.00.