Investors have to find this frustrating. I know I hate it when this happens to one of my stocks. GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) issued its Q2 numbers today. The numbers were a thing of beauty for the most part. Yet, the stock goes nowhere. And yes, I know this is a bad market day, but still, I thought a little pop was in order. As it is, shares are down about 1% as I write.
Sales increased almost 35% to $1.8 billion. The bottom line saw an increase of well over 100%, coming in at $0.34 per diluted share. According to this article, expectations were for $0.28 per share. So, do you see where I'm coming from? Expectations were beat, and growth was stellar... come on, investors, give the stock a bid! Granted, the article mentioned something I noticed as well: the gross margin declined. Okay, it declined. But same-store sales simply rocketed like a spacecraft at a growth rate of 20% during Q2. That has to be worth something ahead of the holiday-selling season. Games from Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS), Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI), and Nintendo Co., Ltd. (ADR) (OTC: NTDOY) powered the quarter. And guess what? They're going to power the next two quarters, too. We have new iterations of Guitar Hero, Call of Duty, and Rock Band to look forward to. Oh, and Lego Batman. Seriously, don't discount that latter title. A lot of Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3s and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360s will move off shelves, and that little system called the Wii is going to be the hottest console again this Christmas. Oh, and then there's the DS. GameStop sells 'em all.
GameStop beat its own guidance, and I think it has a great chance of continuing to beat its own guidance in the near future. That aforementioned article mentions that investors are concerned with slowing growth in the video-game universe. Okay, point well taken, I suppose. But GameStop is such a great brand in its sector, and consumers have come to know it as the go-to place for entertainment software. And as hardware continues to become cheaper, and as the installed user base rises, GameStop should benefit. The shares haven't done well this year, declining over 30% on the year-to-date timeframe as of this writing. The stock is much closer to its 52-week low than to its 52-week high. It's weak. But, I also think it's cheap. If you have a long time horizon, you may want to check GameStop out. If you're a quicker trader, you may want to wait for the stock to come back about $5 toward its 52-week low (if that happens).
Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change at any time.
The Wall Street Journalreports that Best Buy (NASDAQ: BBY) is test piloting the sale of used video games at its Canadian stores, with an eye toward expanding the program into the United States. While the company says it's too early to say whether the plan will take off, Best Buy's head of international relations said on a conference call that "We're very, very, very hopeful that this will be another avenue of increasing our relationship with the consumer generally."
What a nice way of saying "making more money." The used game business carries substantially better margins than retailing new games, and the frequency of trade-ins reduces inventory costs. Right now the leader in used games is GameStop (NYSE: GME), but you have to think a big push from Best Buy could take some market share in this profitable category. Alternative GameStop's small size and more knowledgeable staff could make it more appealing to consumers than Best Buy -- the two stores have locations in many of the same malls.
Even after its recent price decline, GameStop investors should be taking a hard look at the durability of the company's competitive advantage. The company has so far done exceptionally well competing with big box retailers, a testament to tremendous management and a strong concept. But it's a battle that's likely to continue and, looking further into the future, you have to wonder whether higher-quality digital delivery of games could hurt the company.
In case more evidence was needed that Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)'s Zune is a bust, GameStop (NASDAQ: GME) has decided to stop selling the MP3 player, citing the fact the product "didn't have the appeal" that it had hoped it would. GameStop has pulled the inventory from its stores and will offer the Zunes on its website until it has cleared out the entire inventory.
In response, Microsoft told the Wall Street Journal that the Zune sales "have seen good momentum" of late and that the company had seen "great response to our spring release." Translation: "Believe us not your lying eyes."
The failure of the Zune and similar iPod wannabes indicates that Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) may have a bigger moat than many had expected. So far no one has been able to dethrone the iPod and as stores like GameStop stop carrying competitors, Apple's competitive advantage will strengthen.
So let's take a look at the numbers. Earnings per share came in at 37 cents for the quarter, two cents above the 35 cents that analysts had been expecting to see. At 37 cents per share, the company showed a pretty remarkable 151.4% earnings growth from the same period last year.
Revenue figures were also very respectable for the company, with a reported $1.813 billion (a 41.8% year over year increase), and well above the $1.72 billion estimate. Same-store sales got a boost of 27.1%, and if you take a look at new videogame software growth, that figure is an amazing 72%.
CNBC reports that the video game industry is making progress in its efforts to offer downloads of high-quality games over the internet. Nintendo has introduced WiiWare, which lets users download games for the Wii from independent publishers. Developers set the price -- far cheaper than the high-budget games put out by the big publishers -- and Nintendo takes a chunk of the revenue. CNBC adds that "Digital delivery of all forms of entertainment is widely considered to be a foregone conclusion. Only the timeframe is in question. Not only will publishers have to learn to adapt, but game retailers such as Gamestop (NASDAQ: GME) will have to figure out how to compete directly with companies that are also clients."
What happens if the downloading trend takes off as most experts assume it will? The story of Trans World Entertainment (NASDAQ: TWMC) could be a harbinger of things to come if Gamestop is unable to adapt. As the number-one operator of mall-based CD stores, Trans World has seen its sales and profitability plummet -- the shares have declined from over $13.00 in 2005 to the current price of $2.60. The market was very late in pricing in the disastrous effects that the MP3 would have on the brick-and-mortar industry.
Maybe Gamestop can adapt. But with a P/E ratio of over 30 for a company whose business model will have to change drastically over the course of the next decade, investors may want to keep in mind the collapse of Trans World Entertainment.
So Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) is about to have one heck of a week. Tell me if I'm wrong, but I'm willing to bet everyone reading this knows that today is launch day for Grand Theft Auto IV on the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 consoles. And I'm sure there were many hardcore fans at Best Buy (NASDAQ: BBY) and GameStop (NYSE: GME) today, ready with cold-hard-cash in their hands to snag the software; in fact, this article talks about how some stores were open at midnight to satisfy the pent-up demand (remember, this title was delayed). And Douglas McIntyre discussed the game earlier today as being a potential barometer in terms of consumer confidence.
With all this incredible buzz, with the projection that GTA IV might move close to 10 million discs this year, should you be interested in taking on some Take-Two stock for your investment portfolio? The answer for me is no, Take-Two is not a buy here. Remember that we still have the whole arbitrage game going on with it since Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) wants to buy the publisher; also recall that Take-Two is gunning for a higher offer and purposely delayed further negotiations until after the release of GTA IV. I sold my position when the whole buyout offer was made a while ago, and I'm still glad that I did -- for me, the trade was over at that point, and I was happy to simply own my Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) shares.
I read an interesting article on tax rebates and vacation spending. A lot of theories are floating around concerning the exact stimulative effect President Bush's $168 billion program will have on the ailing economy. If the article I read is correct, then the vacation industry may be a big beneficiary.
An expert on the tourism sector, economist Steve Morse of the University of Tennessee, suggests that timing is the key here. Since the rebate monies will be flowing at the same time as Americans start to plan and go on their vacations, Morse believes that economic activities related to enjoying time off will see a tangible boost. In fact, he further states that vacations are something that people might not necessarily deny themselves, even in times of recession. He points out that people might tend to take on a bit of debt to fund vacations since they see it as a "right of life," as he puts it.
I see the logic, especially the "right of life" issue. Not only are vacations important to everyone, but they are sort of comparable to toys at Christmas -- know how they say that people won't stop giving toys to their children even during hard times? Well, vacations are like toys for adults (and if the adults have children, as many do, then vacations are like toys for adults and children). And adults will not cease gifting themselves during the summertime.
You can call on numerous issues for today's big market rally. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) led the brokerage firms higher after beating earnings expectations, and that may have been equally as important to traders as today's three-quarters of the way interest rate cut when it took Fed Funds down to 2.25%. Many traders were looking for a full 1% rate cut on the Fed Funds and Discount Rate. The Fed even delivered a cut after seeing a strong PPI number that was much more realistic than the CPI number of last week.
DJIA 12,392.66 (+420.41; +3.51%)
S&P500 1,330.74 (+54.14; +4.24%)
NASDAQ 2,268.26 (+91.25; +4.19%)
10YR-TBond 3.451% (+0.137%)
The list of 52-week lows is far smaller on a giant rally like this, but as usual there are always some feature stocks that can't manage to rally. There were some others noted this morning that just failed to participate, mostly from analyst downgrades.
Despite a tumbling economy where recession fears gain ground each day, video games demand is rising for at least one retailer. The good times are rolling for GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME), which reported this morning that its fourth-quarter profit jumped 46%.
GameStop's quarterly profit rose up to $189.8 million, or $1.14 per share, compared with $129.8 million, or 81 cents per share in the same period last year. Analysts, on average, were waiting for the company show earnings of $1.12 per share for the quarter.
Taking a look at the company's quarterly revenue, we see a growth of 24% to $2.9 million. For this period, the retailer counted strong sales for its Guitar Hero III and Call of Duty 4 video games. Quarterly sales numbers matched analysts' predictions, according to Thomson Financial.
It was looking like we were about to have a good day at about 8:35 EST this morning after seeing flat CPI. But the day ended up long enough and bad that it feels like that CPI report came out a week ago because it was such a long day.
But today was all about Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), and you've already heard the news. If you have ever wondered what a run on the bank looks like and what a major institution on verge of implosion looks like, you just saw it today. Bear Stearns closed down over 45% to $30.85 on over 185 million shares. Free marketeers don't want a bailout.
It's bad enough out there that even someone out of the National Bureau of Economic Research is worried about a severe recession. If you want any good news on the day, it would be that the market didn't close on lows and it wasn't widespread panic falling out into every sector.
As I've said before, I love reading the monthly videogame sales stats from marketing research outfit NPD. February was yet another nice month for the industry. Software continues to move off retail shelves at a robust clip; sales in this department were up 47% year-over-year last month.
Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) and its incredible Call of Duty 4 title -- yes, I am an Activision shareholder and will probably promote any of its games to my friends and acquaintances, but if you think I'm wrong on this one, go check it out for yourself, it does rule something fierce -- continued its reign at number one, selling 296,000 discs. Activision also did well with Guitar Hero III for the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii, selling 222,000 copies of the game. Rock Band, the music game from Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), did well on Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 -- over 160,000 rockers heeded the call to play some classic tunes.
As one might expect, the Wii sold the most consoles in February. Sony (NYSE: SNE) came in second with its PlayStation 3 unit, and the Xbox 360 was third. Microsoft says a shortage of systems hurt the company; I don't doubt that claim, the 360 did seem a bit hard to come by at some retail channels last month. But it'll be back in competitive mode in the coming months, I'm sure, making certain that Sony doesn't rest on its laurels. I expect sales for software to continue doing well, and just wait till the next holiday season -- I agree, it's too early to be talking about that, but it'll be here before you know it., and I expect it will be another banner selling period. And I can't wait to see what software title will be on top for the current month -- Super Smash Bros. Brawl for the Wii came out this past Sunday, keep in mind. If you told me you haven't heard of this title, I'd be surprised -- it really was the story of the week (or, should that be wiik; stupid pun, gotcha). A couple of GameStop (NYSE: GME) locations in my area held some tournaments, and from what I heard, they were quite lively.
Disclosure: Steven Mallas owns shares of Activision; positions can change at any time.
There's definitely some symbolism here: Now that Dow Jones, the most respected name in financial news, has been sold to Rupert Murdoch, it's being replaced in the S&P 500 by a store that sells video games.
A lagging stock price and stagnant growth have forced the parent company of The Wall Street Journal into the hands of one of the most controversial media barons in history, and all that the S&P 500 has to show for it is a chain that operates stores in the mall selling titles like Halo 3 and Hello Kitty Roller Rescue to kids and kids who never grew up.
Ladies and gentlemen, GameStop (NYSE: GME), the world's largest video game retailer, is joining the S&P 500. The New York Timesreports on the company's remarkable turnaround. A little more than 10 years ago, GameStop was in bankruptcy. What's interesting is that GameStop has prospered as a niche store, in world where niche stores are getting beaten into the ground by big boxes like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT).
How did they do it? By hiring people who -- gasp -- are enthusiastic about the products they're selling.
Shares of GameStop should get a boost as index funds scramble to add the shares to their portfolios. But oftentimes, the addition the index can be the peak of a company's fortunes and investors may want to consider taking profits -- GameStop isn't the underdog anymore.
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Despite a tumbling economy where recession fears gain ground each day, video games demand is rising for at least one retailer. The good times are rolling for 
There's definitely some symbolism here: Now that Dow Jones, the most respected name in financial news, has been sold to Rupert Murdoch, it's being replaced in the S&P 500 by a store that sells video games.
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