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Inventories add pressure to Windows 7 release

Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) new operating system, Windows 7, is set to be released on October 22, 2009, but it's unlikely to have an impact on PC prices. So, if you're feeling the urge to rush out and buy a new box, try to hold out until the end of the month. You'll get a bit more life out of it.

Fortunately, PC prices aren't expected to get much lower, so the entire supply chain -- from chips to software -- has nowhere to go but up. The effect, though, has been to put some serious pressure on manufacturers and retailers to keep from screwing up the release.

Continue reading Inventories add pressure to Windows 7 release

Dell promotes Salesforce.com, eager for a taste of consulting cash

Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) has a new champion: Dell (NASDAQ: DELL). The PC manufacturer is promoting the online sales force-enablement platform as a way to gain access to the hefty sums available in the technology services business. The deal would give Salesforce.com access to Dell's clients in the small and medium-sized business categories. Dell would sell Salesforce.com products and provide consulting services to help clients integrate the solution with their other enterprise applications. The dollars and cents of this union weren't disclosed.

Dell sees the margins of the services business and wants a piece of the action, particularly since the PC sector is low margin. Also, sales have been hit pretty hard as a result of the financial crisis. With PCs accounting for 60% of Dell's top-line, a bit of diversity isn't a bad idea. Currently, services account for only around 10% of Dell's sales.

Continue reading Dell promotes Salesforce.com, eager for a taste of consulting cash

Apple makes list of top 10 handset makers

Almost everyone would expect that Nokia (NYSE: NOK) would have the top spot among handset companies in the last quarter of 2007. Indeed, the big European company took over 40% of the market, up from about 36% the year before, according to research firm Gartner.

It also isn't surprising that Motorola (NYSE: MOT) did poorly; still, the magnitude of the drop was shocking. From that last quarter of 2006 to the last quarter of 2007, Motorola's global share fell from 21.5% to 11.9%. This allowed Samsung to move into the second spot with an 11.3% share.

The most remarkable numbers in the Gartner survey show the rise of expensive smartphones. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iPhone took a 0.6% share of handsets sold, even though the product is not even a year old and is one of the most costly products in the market. RIM's (NASDAQ: RIMM) BlackBerry moved onto the top-10 list with a share of 1.2%.

If the trend away from less expensive phones and toward handset with more features continues, it would not be surprising to see RIM and Apple hitting market shares of closer to 5% at the end of this year. And that would be in a slowing market. According to the FT, "Global handset sales rose 16 percent in 2007, to 1.2bn devices, but Gartner estimates the market will grow by 10 percent in 2008."

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Apple (AAPL) iPhone sales disappoint in UK

The Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone is not selling up to expectations in the UK. According to the Financial Times, "O2 said shortly before the iPhone's UK launch on November 9 that it expected handset sales of 200,000 in the first two months, but people familiar with the situation said the actual figure for the first eight weeks was about 190,000." But, a number of analysts viewed sales estimates from O2, the exclusive iPhone reseller in the UK to be very conservative. Estimates by research firm Gartner were as high as 400,000.

The reason for the slow sales may be the pricing of the iPhone and its calling plan. The handset plus a minimum contract cost about $1,700.

If the news were in a vacuum it might not sting. But, just a week ago China Mobile (NYSE: CHL) said it had cut off conversations with Apple over distributing the product in China, the world largest cell market. The price of the calling plan Apple wanted to market in the world's most populated nation may be been a sticking point.

If sales in the UK and Europe do not begin to exceed expectations and an Asian roll-out is slow, that leaves the U.S. to carry the burden of Apple hitting its 2008 sales targets.

That may be a little too much to expect.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Global PC sales extra bad news for Dell

As the seasons roll around so do the quarterly PC sales numbers from research firm Gartner. It will be a chilly fall for Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) In the third quarter, the Texas-based PC company shipped 9.8 million PCs. That was an increase of less than 4% over the same period last year, and gave the company 14% of the global market, according to The Wall Street Journal.

By way of contrast, Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) shipped 12.8 million PCs world-wide, enough for 19% of the market and a 33% increase from the year earlier period.

Ouch.

It would appear that HP is going to report especially strong PC sales when it releases its third quarter earnings. Its shares are already at almost $53, near their 52-week high.

But the numbers raise serious questions about Michael Dell's chances of turning around the company that he founded. He has put his PC into retail outlets, which should help sales over time. But he is still competing with smaller companies like Acer and Lenovo, who are anxious to increase sales in Europe and the US.

Dell's shares are up almost 15% over the last six months. But if the Q3 sales numbers are reflected in its earnings, the improvement could be short lived.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

Dell's decline is amazing

Who would have thought five years ago that Hewlett Packard Co. (Nasdaq:HPQ) would not only be beating Dell Inc. (Nasdaq:DELL) in the PC market but that it would also extend its lead?

As PC remained lackluster in the fourth quarter, HP managed to boost sales by 24% as Dell's sales fell 9%, the Associated Press reported, citing data from Gartner Inc. HP had 17% of the market to Dell's 14%.

"This level of decline is unprecedented in Dell's history," Gartner analyst Charles Smulders told Bloomberg News.

As a self-described technology idiot, I have a theory for Dell's problems: hubris. The last time my wife and I priced a PC, we went through Dell's Web site. Our friend did the same thing. We wound up getting different prices for the same machine. It was just too confusing to figure out.

When it was time to get an upgrade, we went with an H-P.

Wall Street is starting to lose its patience with Michael Dell and Kevin Rollins. Shares of Dell have plunged 16% over the past year while HP has soared 33%. Even Sun Microsystems Inc. (Nasdaq:SUNW) has outperformed Dell.

I wonder what it will take for Dell to get out of Wall Street's dog house.

Should you buy Microsoft's Vista before 2008?

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) thinks McAfee's claim that it's providing information too late for software security firms to protect customers using the new Windows 64-bit Vista is "inaccurate and inflammatory."

But I'm putting my bets on McAfee's opinion for this one. Vista was originally designed to lock out security firms from the core or "kernel" of its 64-bit Vista system. Security firms complained to all that would listen, including the European Commission, that without access to this kernel they could not fully protect computers from intrusions. Microsoft, of course, didn't mind that. They want to make their own new security program the dominant program on Vista.

Would you want your computer's security completely dependent on Microsoft? Do you trust them to put out protections for viruses, worms and other intrusions as quickly as you've come to expect them from the two security leaders - McAfee, Inc.'s (NYSE: MFE) and Symantec Corp. (NASDAQ : SYMC)? Given Microsoft's history of dragging its feet on alerting you to security problems, I for one won't even consider an upgrade to Vista until McAfee and Symantec give me the green light that they can protect my computer.

Luckily, the European Commission listened to the complaints of McAfee and Symantec, and forced Microsoft to back peddle and open the kernel to security firms. The problem is that decision came too late for its end of November release. Microsoft said Thursday that it can only make this change when it updates the software at some time in the future. The big problem is that Microsoft's not giving a timetable for the update.

The only timetable for this update of kernel-control software comes from the Gartner group, which they believe won't be available to security software companies until 2008. Gartner told its clients that they should not commit to accepting the 64-bit Vista until a firm release date for the first set of kernel-control software is announced by Microsoft. Microsoft declined to endorse this recommendation. Does that surprise you?

Microsoft got caught with its pants down and simply doesn't like it. The only way it knows to behave with this embarrassing situation is to start attacking its accusers. Luckily, this time the accusers are powerful security software companies that are standing their ground for their customers and, of course, their own share of the market.

HP pulls ahead of Dell in worldwide PC shipments

Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ) grabbed the global PC crown from Dell Inc. (NASDAQ:DELL) in the third quarter. HP shipped 100,000 more PCs that Dell, moving into first place for the first time in three years, according to research firm Gartner.

HP's global share is now 16.3% compared to 16.1% for Dell. Dell still leads in the US with a share of around 31% to HP's 23%.

Dell has been plagued by customer service problems and its image as one of the great growth companies among American firms has faded. Despite the board spying scandal at HP and the indictment of its former chairman, the company's CEO, Mark Hurd, is viewed as something of a turnaround artist on Wall Street.

The market has known that HP was moving aggressively and successfully on Dell for some time. HP shares trade near their 52-week high at $39, up from the low of $25.53. Dell shares change hands at $24.70, near the lower end of its 12-month range of $33.22/$18.95. While HP's stock is up 40% over the last year, Dell's is off almost 25%.

Dell has tried to fix its problems by moving some of its PC's to AMD chips, which are in high demand among some buyers. But there is no evidence that this has caused a surge of new sales.

With revenue and operating profit falling, Dell still has a long row to hoe.

Douglas McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Google Gunning for PowerPoint?

thumstacks

In March, Google bought an online word processor, Writely. Recently, it launched the Google Spreadsheet (I did a piece on this recently for Bloggingstocks.com).

What's next?  Maybe a Microsoft PowerPoint wannabe?

That's what a recent report from Gartner speculates. Actually, the scenario is that Google will buy Thumbstacks, which is a Web2.0 presentation app.

Interestingly enough, Gartner thinks Google's Office-type strategy is really to target the newbie crowd (such as "soccer moms").  In fact, it is a way to make Google's site more sticky, which has been a problem for the company (after all, users mostly go to Google to search, not stay around).  If Google can keep users on its site longer, there should be more opportunities to rack-up even more ad revenue.

Microsoft Finally Admits It: Vista Will Be Late

Better late than never?  I guess.  Steve Ballmer, who just a few days ago hung tough and said Vista would not be delayed by the Symantec lawsuit, now admits that Windows Vista may not make its January delivery date.  The market expected that announcement since Gartner's report at the beginning of May.

The Symantec suit is not the only legal issue pending that could impact the release of the software.  The European Commission made noises during Microsoft's appeal of the EU's antitrust penalty that the commissioners were concerned about Windows Vista and might file another antitrust action.  Even with that threat Microsoft thumbed its nose at the EU and used shoelaces and bank vaults to try to prove that the EU's fines are not justified.  The appeal court's decision will not likely be known for about another 60 days.  If the court sides with the EU it will be even more emboldened to file an action against Windows Vista.

Will the court battles hurt Vista?

Continue reading Microsoft Finally Admits It: Vista Will Be Late

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Last updated: November 12, 2009: 05:28 PM

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