Last Friday's rally was heartening, but why did it happen? I am guessing that a drop in oil and a rise in the dollar were helpful ingredients. At $115.32, oil is down 22% from its $147.27 a barrel high, and at $1.49, the dollar has strengthened 11% from its low of $1.60 per euro. But what was behind those moves? Can those factors persist? What happens to stocks if they sink?
The dollar/euro is moving based on relative economic strength and inflation policy. Some think that the dollar strengthened over recent weeks because Europe appears to be heading into a recession and the U.S. has already been in one since the fourth quarter of 2007. If the U.S. is further along, it may begin its recovery sooner.
As far as inflation policy, the U.S. has kept rates at 2%, while Europe appears more likely to raise rates to fight inflation. Bloomberg News reports that European Central bank council member Klaus Liebscher said "policy makers remain focused on the 'worrying' level of inflation." The euro has rebounded to $1.50 on this announcement.

The highways I drove this Memorial Day weekend were relatively empty thanks to people opting for a 

