Things are not working out so well for those at the Fed who deny that inflation exists. After all, its job is to keep the currency strong by putting out brush fires of inflationary expectations before they can become a firestorm of price spike fears. And if current consumers' expectations of inflation are any measure, the Fed is not doing its job.

That's according to the Associated Press, which reports that 90% of those it polled expect ballooning costs to squeeze them financially over the next half-year. Consumers have less money than they used to -- the median income is down since 2000 from $61,000 to $60,500. And prices have risen -- food has tripled in many cases and gasoline prices are up to around $4.20 a gallon. But the Fed does not see this -- it measures inflation excluding food and fuel -- and has kept rates at 2%.

And with housing in the tank and lenders in trouble, they can't borrow their way to balancing their budgets. Since the Fed is not controlling inflation, people are coping by cutting back. They are driving less, easing off the air conditioning and heating at home and cutting corners elsewhere. Half are curtailing vacation plans; nearly as many are considering buying cars that burn less gas.

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the just released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

Last week I wrote about what might happen if gas continues its seemingly inevitable march upward, maybe reaching $10 a gallon. There will be changes in our lifestyles, major changes. Some companies will benefit greatly, others will simply go away, unable to evolve with the new reality. Here are more industries that will be affected.

The airlines, at least the ones left, will fly smaller planes, more fuel efficient. They'll be full, every one, every time. They may not take off unless they are. Some cancelled if they're not booked up 12 hours in advance. Expect more hassles at the airport, more charges and fees for whatever airlines can imagine. (How about charging by the pound? Passengers get on a scale, then pay at the counter based on their weight.) Seat space will get even smaller.

The highways I drove this Memorial Day weekend were relatively empty thanks to people opting for a Staycation. But people I spoke with were wondering why gasoline prices were so high and whether they'll go higher. While USA Today thinks they've peaked, my answer to both questions is I don't know.

But if one source is right that 60% of the trading volume in oil is from speculators, then a rise in the dollar and a drop in consumption would force those speculators to reverse course -- and that would send oil prices plummeting. Here are five things you can do to help make this happen:

• Drive less. Many people don't have the option to do this. But carpooling is an option for many. People can also try to make many stops during a single car trip rather than doing one at a time. And they can try to telecommute more frequently.
• Take public transportation. Much has been written recently about people taking buses, trains, and other forms of public transportation to work. While this is often more time consuming and can be inconvenient. It may also save money and will certainly cut down on your gasoline consumption.
• Ride a bike or use a motorcycle. I know riding a bike would be a major inconvenience for many people. Riding a motorcycle gets better gas mileage than a car and is fun for some. During periods of dry weather these options could work fairly well. But they'd be awfully tough during a snow or rain storm.

With gasoline prices going through the roof lately, the main question on every motorists' mind has been how to save some money at the pumps. The obvious answers are to either drive less, or buy a car that uses less gas, preferably a gas-electric hybrid. Hybrids, unfortunately, are pretty expensive, but Honda (NYSE: HMC) has announced plans for releasing an affordable gas-electric hybrid next year.

Honda plans on this new hybrid to be a brand new car model for the company, and the model will only come in the hybrid version. In addition, it will also be coming out with new hybrid versions of its already popular Civic and CR-Z.

The company's President, Takeo Fukui, stated that there has been a lot of attention placed on hybrids recently, and that now was the time to "go to the next step." He did not make any predictions on just how much the new hybrid-only model would cost, other than it would be affordable. There was also no mention of the name for the new model, but some descriptions were given, including that it would be a 5-door sedan with new weight reduction technology to help improve the vehicle's efficiency.

I know that last thing you probably wanted to hear this morning was that oil prices moved even higher, but that is exactly what is taking place, as oil rose as high as $125.98 and is currently trading at $125.60.

Leading the charge today is the weak dollar as investors continue to seek refuge from the falling U.S. currency in commodities -- most notably, oil. The dollar has fallen today against the euro, the British pound, and the Japanese yen. The euro was sitting at $1.5404 last night, but has moved higher today, up to a current price of $1.5466.

The market is also concerned about the upcoming peak driving season for Americans. With the season getting under way, oil prices will definitely continue to rise, and if gasoline stockpiles continue to fall, you can be sure that gasoline prices are also going to keep moving higher over the next couple of months. Will we see national averages of $4 or greater? I don't think so, but at the current rate prices are moving, nothing is out of the question right now.

Gasoline prices have continued their charge up to $4 a gallon today, rising to a new record high of $3.418 after jumping 1.9 cents last night.

Gas prices have been rising sharply over the past few months in reaction to record high oil prices and a weak dollar, and some analysts are already predicting that we will be seeing $4 a gallon before it is all said and done. Diesel prices also rose to a new high, hitting $4.146 per gallon.

As we noted in earlier discussions, gas prices are only expected to move higher in the next few months as more drivers hit the road for their summer vacations. The heavy demand summer driving months always apply upward pressure to prices, and despite the current high prices, summer demand will definitely push prices even higher.

Oil surged over $113 per barrel Tuesday on word of supply disruptions in Nigeria and Mexico and increasing fuel demand in China, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.

Oil increased $1.90 to $113.66 per barrel Tuesday morning after Mexico, the third largest supplier of oil to the United States, shut its fourth export terminal Monday, while Eni SpA halted output in Nigeria, Bloomberg New reported. Meanwhile, China, which boasts world's fastest-growing major economy, said diesel oil imports increased 49% in March 2008.

The other major energy commodities also vaulted ahead on the news in early trading Tuesday. Heating oil jumped 3 cents to $3.25 per gallon, unleaded gasoline added 2 cents to $2.84 per gallon, and natural gas added about 14 cents to $10.20 per million BTUs.

Supply disruptions jolt market

Independent energy trader Jim Dietz told BloggingStocks Tuesday the supply disruptions in Mexico and Nigeria were negative datapoints the oil market did not need.

U.S. lawmakers are going to get their chance today to ask executives from five of the world's largest oil companies what their take is on current gasoline prices.

Executives from the top three American oil companies -- Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) -- will be present at today's hearing, as well as executives from BP (NYSE: BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A). While the executives are predictably going to blame the current high gasoline prices on surging oil, it will still be interesting to see just how hard lawmakers hit the executives.

For the executives, it can't be a good feeling to be walking into today's hearing. The hearing is being called "Drilling for Answers: Oil Company Profits, Runaway Prices and the Pursuit of Alternatives." The hearings will be chaired by Rep. Ed Markey of Massachusetts, who in the past has been a vocal critic of the oil industry.

Oil closed up $1.65 to $100.88 Tuesday -- a new record-high print close -- as traders piled into the world's most vital commodity on the belief it will serve as an inflation hedge if U.S. inflation accelerates this year.

Oil had hit an intra-session high of $101.11 earlier in the day before pulling back slightly. (Oil hit an all-time high, in inflation-adjusted terms, of $102.80 per barrel in April 1980.)

Energy commodities close up

The other major energy commodities also closed higher. Heating oil gained about two cents to $2.79 per gallon, unleaded gasoline climbed about one cent to $2.54, and natural gas gained about one cent to $9.19 per million BTUs.

Independent energy trader Jim Dietz told BloggingStocks Tuesday that the market is not taking into consideration oil's bearish fundamentals, which show rising inventories in several key categories, but is trading more on psychology: namely, ambition.

Crude oil surged $2.53 to $98.03 per barrel in early trading Tuesday on a Texas refinery fire and concern OPEC will cut production at its March meeting.

A strong explosion Monday created a fire and shut off production at an oil refinery operated by Alon USA Energy (NYSE: ALJ) near Big Spring, Texas. The facility can refine 70,000 barrels of crude per day.

Heating oil jumped about 6 cents to $2.71 per gallon, unleaded gasoline surged about 7 cents to $2.56 per gallon, and natural gas rose 26 cents to $8.92 per million BTUs.

Independent energy trader Jim Dietz told BloggingStocks Tuesday that given the U.S.'s barely-adequate refining capacity, any incident in the refinery system can cause a price spike.

"There is so little spare capacity in the system, even a fire at a minor location can have traders flashing the buy card," Dietz said. "The U.S. has decided to allow new refinery construction, but the next new facility won't be ready for about 5 to 6 years. Expansions at existing refineries will provide some additional spare capacity later this year." Dietz added that he has no open daily positions, and is short oil with monthly contracts.

Existing oil field output is declining about 4.5% annually, but new fields are making up for that production decline, a study by Cambridge Energy Research Associates concludes, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday. (Subscription required.)

The annual decline from existing fields is about 4 million barrels per day -- about the amount oil No. 4 oil producer Iran produces per day -- with new fields offsetting the loses. The study is based on data from 811 fields, The Journal reported.

Depletion rates are one measure that oil sector analysts use to gauge current productivity, proven reserves that can be extracted, and probable future production output.

The measure also provides evidence for the ongoing debate in oil circles regarding the ultimate size of oil supplies -- with exploration bulls arguing that oil is decades away from a production top, and others, peak oil theorists, arguing that global oil production is likely to peak in the decade ahead, if not sooner. The debate is complicated by the fact that reliable production data on field-by-field production is not available from several key oil-producing nations, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, and Venezuela.

Motor home manufacturer Winnebago Industries Inc. (NYSE: WGO) is currently being squeezed by numerous factors, only some of which are under the company's control. To the surprise of no one who has recently been hit in the wallet at the gas pump, demand for gas guzzling behemoths remains soft. Costs for labor and raw materials continue to rise. Consumers who do buy motor homes are price conscious so Winnebago must offer cheaper, lower profit margin models, even though selling expenses due to incentives continue to rise. Thus, no one should have been shocked at Winnebago's recent 3Q 2007 earnings report, which indicated that 3Q profits fell 14% to $11.3 million even though overall revenues were up 5.2% to $231.7 million. Just like with taxes, it is not always about how much you earn. It's about how much you get to keep. And Winnebago is not getting to keep all that much. Revenues have decreased by 4% over the previous three quarters, but net income has decreased by a hefty 24.6% over that same period.

To its credit, the company is responding to concerns over the cost of fuel by introducing a line of more efficient diesel engines in 2008 models. Sales order backlog has increased substantially due to the newer models, although the cost of those sales has also increased. Winnebago repurchased $20 million of its stock during 3Q 2007, but the stock has still lost almost 10% of its value since the beginning of the year. Winnebago stock recently closed at $30.00, up $1.34. While Winnebago's EPS are significantly above industry average, its P/E is as well.

We have been expecting to see this for a few days now, and today oil was finally able to close the session above the psychological $70 mark at $70.55, gaining $0.98 on the session. Earlier in the day prices were able to trade as high as $71.06 before settling down a bit to head into the weekend.

Today's close above $70 marks the first time in almost a year that prices have been at this level, with the last time oil was above $70 being back in August '06. The primary reasons behind the move today were more of the same that we have seen lately... concerns over gasoline surprises and political tensions around the globe.

American refineries have been the center of attention over the past couple of months with concerns over how well refineries are going to be able to keep up with the growing demand during the peak summer driving months. This week those concerns were once again brought to the surface after the weekly inventory numbers out of the Energy Department showed n unexpected decline in gasoline supplies. Analysts had been expecting to see a rise of 1.1 million barrels when in fact the numbers showed that gasoline stocks fell by 700,000 barrels.

Last December, over 100 stocks were featured in our Top Picks for 2007 report. Now, at mid-year, we turn to the 20 advisors whose picks showed the strongest gains to get an update on their previous picks, as well as a new favorite stock for the second half of the year.

Jon Markman, editor of Strategic Advantage, chose banking software company FundTech Ltd. (NASDAQ: FNDT), which rose 41% as of June 1, 2007. The advisor has just sold the stock from his model portfolio.

For his new favorite idea for the balance of 2007, the advisor looks to Hercules Offshore Inc. (NASDAQ: HERO). He explains, "Energy companies' shares might seem high to you now, but you ain't seen nothin' yet. When investors collectively decide that the new 'band' for oil prices is $50 to $65 rather than $35 to $50, then virtually all energy stocks are in for a major upward move.

"In this scenario, every subsector of the energy industry will move higher: Oil and gas drillers, services providers, explorers, refiners, pipeline owners, and the major integrators. We are just in the third inning of the game now, and it should continue to surprise people.

"All this is good news for the energy companies, but not such great news for the average consumer. We know how gasoline prices are breaking budgets.

"So in order to put some of the cash you're shelling out at the pump each week back into your pockets, I've been suggesting a couple of other energy companies that are set to profit from higher oil and natural gas prices as well as drilling rates.

For those of you who just can't stand the thought of running out and filling up your car with gasoline, I have a little bit of good news: gasoline prices fell again last week. According to the Energy Information Administration, the national average fell by a little over 8 cents a gallon last week.

This marks the third week in a row that prices have fallen, lowering the national average to $3.08 for a gallon of regular unleaded. While it is encouraging to see prices falling to a four-week low, prices are still up 91 cents from the start of the year.

U.S. refinery production has been the root of the problem, and although America's refineries are still running at sub 90% capacity, gasoline prices have been slightly offset by increased motor fuel imports. Analysts are expecting that more refineries will be coming back online during the remainder of this month, and if we continue to see above average fuel imports, then gasoline prices should continue to retreat.