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Greenbrier posts tiny, unexpected 3Q profit, slams GE

The Greenbrier Companies (NYSE: GBX) stepped into the earnings spotlight this morning, with the rail-car maker reporting a fiscal third-quarter loss of $50.5 million, or $3 per share. The company chalked up its widened quarterly loss to $55.7 million in goodwill write-downs, as well as waning demand. Excluding that write-down, earnings would have arrived at three cents per share. Revenue for the period tumbled 36% to $244 million. Analysts were looking for a loss of five cents per share on $269 million in revenue.

GBX also announced that 550 additional workers will be furloughed as a result of continuing weakness in the economy and an uncertain outlook for the future. Greenbrier is pointing the finger at General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) for that cloudy forecast, claiming that the conglomerate is in breach of contract. "This limited visibility is exacerbated by GE's unilateral actions and the uncertainties surrounding our multiyear contract with them," stated CEO William Furman.

Continue reading Greenbrier posts tiny, unexpected 3Q profit, slams GE

Were News Corp.'s 'Ice Age' sequel and GE's 'Public Enemies' disappointments?

The domestic box-office estimates for the July 4th holiday weekend are in. According to Boxofficemojo, at the time of this writing, the results are too close to call. Both Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen and News Corp.'s (NASDAQ: NWS) Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs are credited with the same amount of money: $42.5 million. Boxofficemojo is giving Dinosaurs the edge for now and calling it the top movie, presumably because the per-theater average for the computer cartoon is slightly higher.

I previously discussed News Corp.'s strong opening with Dinosaurs, but unfortunately, I'm not so sure the movie lived up to it. When the second Ice Age was released back in 2006, it scored $68 million in its three-day debut weekend. Dinosaurs didn't do as well, but let's take into account the film's Wednesday opening, and tally up the gross for the five-day period, since some of the excitement that might have been reserved for the weekend could have been spread over the mid-week showings. Even by that standard, as of the current estimate, Dinosaurs has taken in a little less than the second Ice Age.

Continue reading Were News Corp.'s 'Ice Age' sequel and GE's 'Public Enemies' disappointments?

Chasing Value: 2009 picks 731% better than S&P -- 2nd quarter review

The second quarter is now behind us and for the most part it was a positive one in terms of the market pushing higher almost 40%. This is the second review of my 2009 stock picks through June 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). There was a lot of talk about green shoots this past quarter as Wall Street was looking for any small bit of optimistic data to support the market.

The federal printing presses continued to run at full speed pushing the dollar lower and oil prices higher. While the feds were printing money to cover their deficits, the States do not have that same luxury and many of them are having trouble balancing their budgets to the tune of billions of dollars.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2009 picks 731% better than S&P -- 2nd quarter review

General Electric: Up, down or sideways?

After a nifty rebound off a 52-week low of $5.73, industrial and financial services giant General Electric (NYSE: GE) is in a weird place. The company's shares are trading at around $11.75, which is well below the $15 levels achieved in early May. This would seem odd as GE appears to be well positioned for the Green Shoots Scenario. The company has a big presence in alternative energy, health care solutions, and industrial products -- all big beneficiaries of both the Obama stimulus package and a nascent economic rebound.

So why does the market seem to be scared of GE? A couple of key reasons. First, GE's investments in commercial real estate (CRE) are looking increasingly toxic as the rate of CRE failures soars and CRE debt remains difficult to roll over.

Continue reading General Electric: Up, down or sideways?

DVR and content companies: What should the broadcasters do?

Julia Boorstin covered an interesting topic over at CNBC.com the other day. The Supreme Court, by electing not to review a case involving Cablevision (NYSE: CVC), essentially said that cable companies such as Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) can pursue digital video recorder (DVR) storage on cable-system servers. By doing this, a perceived barrier to entry for subscribing to DVR has been eliminated: you don't have to deal with a clunky box. Cable should theoretically see an increase in customers who adopt DVR technology if remote storage is exploited.

Well, as Boorstin rightly points out, CBS (NYSE: CBS), Disney's (NYSE: DIS) ABC, General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC, and News Corp.'s (NASDAQ: NWS) Fox do need to worry. These DVR technologies basically translate to a drop in the economic value of advertising. Let's face it: who watches commercials when they don't have to?

Continue reading DVR and content companies: What should the broadcasters do?

GE invests in Michigan, USA -- new technology center

The federal government, for better or worse, has been increasing the money supply as fast as it can in an attempt to prevent a collapse of our financial system, stabilize the housing market, improve the employment outlook and rehabilitate our nations infrastructure.

Most economists have some fear of inflation as a result of this, even if the fear is not for three to five years. To combat the increase in money supply we need to balance it out with an increase in productivity.

Continue reading GE invests in Michigan, USA -- new technology center

Chasing Value: GE -- maybe not eating out of trash cans after all

This week I closed out an option on General Electric (NYSE: GE) I had discussed four months ago regarding the absolute fear in the market place that I felt had driven investors off a cliff (see Chasing Value: Will we be eating out of trash cans?).

At the time I had noticed that GE naked puts, a "sell to open" put option, would pay me, on the spot, 52 cents a share if I would commit to buying the shares if they dropped below $2.50 by January 2011. This meant that my break-even position was $1.98 a share when GE was selling for five times that.

Continue reading Chasing Value: GE -- maybe not eating out of trash cans after all

Viacom and Michael Bay: Stop whining, Mike

Now, here is an interesting little spat. Michael Bay, according to The Hollywood Reporter, is upset with Viacom (NYSE: VIA). Why? Well, there's a movie coming out this week called Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. It's the sequel to the big summer hit from a couple years back that brought the Transformers brand into the multiplex culture. Bay directed both projects. And he apparently has taken a tantrum, a little baby-like tantrum, over the marketing of the new film.

The Reporter article, which talks about the TMZ.com post that brought an email Bay wrote in May to the world's attention, says that Bay believes the quality of the marketing support so far on the second Transformers is way below par. He feels no buzz equity surrounding the movie. He doesn't think that an appropriate zeitgeist of support has been synthetically manufactured by the powers that be at Paramount. And he wonders if it might have to do with money: "I cannot figure if this is a cash issue with your company?" Further, he proffers: "Right now we are not an event. We are just a sequel, which is different."

Continue reading Viacom and Michael Bay: Stop whining, Mike

New studio's business plan should be a lesson to media conglomerates

I caught a very interesting post by Julia Boorstin over at CNBC.com. She discusses a movie studio that apparently wants to change the way movies are made. The company is called DF Indie Studios. Here's what it wants to do: make a dozen or so films each year on the cheap. What is cheap in Hollywood? Try $10 million or less. DF Indie Studios wants to go it alone, which means that it would rather not hook up with a Disney (NYSE: DIS) or a Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) to get distribution for its product. And Boorstin mentions that equity will be used as financing.

This movie-making model is right up my alley. I've written extensively about how Tinsel Town has gotten out of control when it comes to budgets and marketing expenses. Movies simply don't need to cost as much as they do. And projects give away way too many concessions in terms of cash-flow participation. Big stars tend to receive percentages of the gross that are too significant, in my opinion.

Continue reading New studio's business plan should be a lesson to media conglomerates

Time Warner's 'Hangover' beats Sony's new action flick

If this weekend's box office results say anything, it's that success in the movie business resists predictability. How else do you explain the money that Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) The Hangover is grossing? I haven't seen the film, so I'm sure there's something to it. Nevertheless, it just didn't seem like it would be a big hit. Guess the word of mouth on it has been pretty good.

Hangover, as of early estimates at Boxofficemojo, took in $33 million at domestic theaters over the past three days, good for first place. It beat Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Pixar project Up, which took in about $30 million and came in second. Hangover actually was the number-one movie last weekend as well. So far, it's taken in more than $100 million.

Continue reading Time Warner's 'Hangover' beats Sony's new action flick

GE Aviation expects orders to plummet as airlines cut spending

GE Aviation, a unit of General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE), warned that it expects orders to be cut in half this year amid the ongoing recession. Jack Lutze, the unit's vice president of sales for Europe and Africa, told Reuters that deferrals are rising as airlines postpone spending on new jets. "Everybody is looking to push back 2010," explained the VP.

On the plus side, Lutze reports that GE Aviation has an order backlog that should translate to years' worth of production -- leftovers from a period of expansion earlier this decade in the airline industry. "This industry lurches from boom to bust," he observed. "We lag the industry on the way down and on the way up."

Continue reading GE Aviation expects orders to plummet as airlines cut spending

Can Viacom create long-term value?

Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA), a media company that competes with entities such as The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS), General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal, and Time Warner, Inc. (NYSE: TWX), held its annual shareholder meeting last week. An article from The Hollywood Reporter recounted a few tidbits from the gathering.

As you can imagine, the CEO, Philippe Dauman, was pretty happy about the company's stock performance. He pointed out that it has been strong against the broader market this year. While that might be comforting, the longer-term performance of Viacom shares has not been so rosy.

Continue reading Can Viacom create long-term value?

Disney's 'Up' continues to reach for box-office domination

Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Pixar have a great thing going with their new cartoon Up. Last weekend, the movie debuted in the top spot. This past weekend, Disney just might retain that number-one designation. And if it does, I can tell you that this is cool news.

It's very close. As of this writing, early estimates at Boxofficemojo credit Up with a take of $44 million for the past three days at domestic theaters. Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) The Hangover is said to have grossed $43 million. If those numbers by any chance hold, then Up will be in first place and Hangover will come in second.

Continue reading Disney's 'Up' continues to reach for box-office domination

Can Disney license its way to a stock rebound?

I'm always looking for a catalyst that is going to take Disney (NYSE: DIS) to the next level. The stock hasn't been a great performer over time. Just today, the Mouse issued a press release detailing its latest merchandising plans.

Merchandising falls under the consumer products division. Now, one would expect that this segment would always be rocking considering the brand equity inherent in all of Disney's intellectual properties. Well, let's remind ourselves of how the segment did during the last earnings report. In the second quarter, operating income for consumer products dipped 24%. For the six-month period, operating income was down by 13%. Double-digit declines: nobody likes them. Management commentary about the division specifically stated that lower royalty revenue from merchandise helped to drive the performance. As can be seen, Disney needs some good ideas and strategies to return this segment to growth.

Continue reading Can Disney license its way to a stock rebound?

Light technology plays: GE, Siemens, Philips

Three light plays to brighten your day (pun intended) and your portfolio -- and all are linked to rapidly-advancing light technology, including LED lights, that will save energy and reduce carbon emissions.

First, I'll reiterate a previous favorite, General Electric (NYSE: GE). I recommended it first on March 2, 2009. Now I'd raise Sell/Stop Loss to $9.25 from my original Sell/Stop Loss: $3.25. The First Call FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for GE are 98 cents to 94 cents.

Continue reading Light technology plays: GE, Siemens, Philips

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Last updated: July 10, 2009: 04:19 AM

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