The markets saw an overall mildly bullish session today. The NYSE had volume of 2.3 billion shares with 2,056 shares advancing while 1,221 declined for a gain of 54.38 points to close at 9,637.55. On the NASDAQ, 1.8 billion shares traded, 1,682 advanced and 1,305 declined for a gain of 8.37 to 2,614.32.

Silver Standard (NASDAQ: SSRI) rose $3.49 (11%) to $33.91. Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) rose $2.80 (8%) to $36.20. Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) rose $1.80 (8%) to $25.78. Office Depot Inc (NYSE: ODP) fell $1.49 (-6%) to $21.94. Level 3 Communications Inc (NASDAQ: LVLT) fell $0.21 (-4%) to $4.93.

In options there were 3.8 million puts and 4.7 million calls traded for a put/call open interest ratio of 0.82. Level 3 Comm. Inc. (NASDAQ: LVLT) saw heavy volume on the January 7.50 calls (QHNAU) with over 33,900 options trading. Apple Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) had volume on a number of different strikes including the September 150 calls (APVIJ) with over 33,800 calls trading; the September 140 calls (APVIH) with over 41,700 options trading; and the September 145 calls (APVII) with over 33,000 options trading. Motorola (NYSE: MOT) tallied volume on the October 20 calls (MOTJD) with over 30,100 options trading. General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) saw heavy volume on the December 40 calls (GELH) with over 26,000 options trading. SLM Holding (NYSE: SLM) moved volume on the October 50 calls (SLMJJ) with over 24,700 options trading and moved volume on the October 50 puts (SLMVJ) with over 20,100 options trading. AK Steel Holding (NYSE: AKS) traded volume on the October 30 puts (AKSVF) with over 55,800 options trading.

Kevin Kersten is an Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and or controls a diversified portfolio of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.

Thursday Market Rap: SSRI, GG, ODP, LVLT & GE originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 06 Sep 2007 17:48:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In June of 2006, after a month of writing for BloggingStocks, I wrote about our original "Great 8" stocks. Amazingly this is my 300th story - never thought that was possible. It's been fun and educational. During the last few months I started three special sections with the coaxing of Amey Stone and with the coaching of Sarah Gilbert. I decided to go back to the beginning and review the original "Great 8" again and see how my discussion points panned out.

In the past year the Federal Reserve Board has sat on the fence leaving interest rates untouched, however, their hemming and hawing has moved the market at times as fear and greed and speculation had the usual effect of jiggling the market from time to time. Housing starts have fallen steadly to scary levels in some parts of the country. The Iraq war is still on the front pages as the death toll increases and President Bush's influence evaporates.

In last year's report I said "there are no bargains yet, but there are some very interesting developments in the fundamentals" - - so what now?

Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) was the big winner to the upside in the past year followed by Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) aided by the influence of Carl Icahn, major stock buy-backs and changes in AOL and the cable business, has also performed well. The following were the four things that seemed noteworthy at the time. All of them were relevant to what happend.

1. TWX has a very low price-to-book ratio.
2. GE has powerful products to sell -- literally: aircraft and standby power engines, water resource management and equipment. Plus it has a strong dividend.
3. WMT had a very low price-to-sales ratio before and it is still extremely low at .64. While the stock price is going nowhere and has not for years they seem to be creating more shareholder equity. They are a huge company so the prospects are that they move up slowly over time but are not goin to be exciting to watch -- unless they are building one next door to you house.
4. GOOG has an extraordinary return on invested capital (ROIC).

Here's my take on all eight stocks:

Continue reading ONE Year later: AAPL, EBAY, GE, GOOG, MSFT, TWX, WMT, YHOO

ONE Year later: AAPL, EBAY, GE, GOOG, MSFT, TWX, WMT, YHOO originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 26 Jun 2007 18:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Onward with my review of the Dow Jones Industrials. Ten stocks have been reviewed so far with three worth further consideration as potential value plays: Alcoa Aluminum (NYSE: AA), American International Group (NYSE: AIG) and Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT). You can link to Part 1 of this series or Part 2 if you want to catch up. Comments are always welcome.

Disney (Walt) Company (NYSE: DIS) on first glance looks like it may have some value hidden away. The raw numbers do not scream out at me but they cannot be ignored either. At a minimum this stock seems to be slightly under valued, given its strong brand and depth of content in a business where content is king, it has locked up many franchises. This includes the Pirates of the Caribbean: At the World's End now in theaters. It has an average P/E, a below average debt ratio, a modest dividend yield to go along with very low P/S 2.18 and P/B 2.36 ratios. Disney is worth consideration as a value stock.

DuPont EI De Nemours (NYSE: DD) is another mixed bag, although mostly favorable from a value standpoint. You have to like the below average P/E of 14.92, P/S of 1.77 and the generous dividend yield of 2.84%. On the other hand, it has a P/B of almost 5, which is higher than I would usually consider for a value play and the same is true for the P/CF of almost 12.29, which is a little bit pricey to me. It does report strong profit margins of 11.48% and a great ROE of 34.41. In comparing it to one of my stock picks Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) for 2007, which has a P/S and P/B of half of DuPont and a higher yield of 3.67% I think I will pass this one up.

Continue reading Serious Money: Whittling away at the Dow -- DIS, DD, XOM, & GE: Part 3

Serious Money: Whittling away at the Dow -- DIS, DD, XOM, & GE: Part 3 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 31 May 2007 13:57:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I have now completed reviewing half of the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in search of value. To my surprise five of the first fifteen seem to be value propositions, five appear to be fairly valued but upside potential does remain and the last five -- who knows? Serious Money: Whittling away at the Dow -- MMM, AA, MO, AXP, & AIG: Part 1 was published this morning. Parts 2 through 7 will follow daily.

After months of rising stock prices and new Dow record highs being reached on a regular basis, I was not expecting to find that there was any value left. I have been relatively optimistic since last year posting DOW 14,000 here we come! but the rate of increase has accelerated beyond what I envisioned.

James Cramer of the TheStreet.com early in the year wildly projected that the Dow would reach 14,000 this year. A year ahead of my own more tempered view, and I definitely thought he was going out on a limb at the time. Now it would seem easily in reach and perhaps what I thought was sticking my neck out was too conservative.

Perhaps it was the years of stagnating stock prices for Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup (NYSE: C), General Electric (NYSE: GE), 3M Corp (NYSE: MMM) , International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) and others that finally built up a head of steam and came alive in the last six to eight months. That and global expansion that all the large cap stocks are able to capitalize on. Well, investors and the sun are shining on the Dow so enjoy the ride and be ever watchful.

Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.

To my surprise the Dow still has room to rise originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 29 May 2007 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Chuck Prince at Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) has been under increasing pressure to 'do something' to increase shareholder value after years of no price appreciation in the value of the company despite many attempts including the buying and selling of many companies, reorganizations, expansions, contractions and numerous meetings with major shareholders to express his ideas and get theirs - and still nothing. Some have suggested breaking up the company which is currently the largest financial institution / bank in the United States, but that does not seem to be in the cards. Now to be fair other ultra-large cap stocks (Citi is $254 billion) have made little progress in growing share value over the last few years and some have gone down; General Electric (NYSE: GE), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) and 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) to name a few.

• Melly Alazraki reported on Wednesday that Investors awaited Citigroup Inc.'s restructuring announcement today. The originally expected 15,000 jobs, was yesterday reported to have increased to 26,000. Well, the Citi released its plan and it contains 17,000 job cuts, or 5% of its workforce as the company seeks to lower annual expenses by $4.6 billion in the next three years. However, the 26,000 jobs reported yesterday said "fired or reassigned," and indeed Citi announced that "more than 9,500 jobs will be moved to lower-cost locations."

Every big company has some "dead weight." However, where did they discover these people they say they no longer need, hiding under desks? Sleeping in the closets? Not the executive washroom prey tell?! How did all these "dead beats" hide for so long? What will the costs to the company be in the short run? Most importantly, firing lots of people is not necessarily any more of a strategy than proposing a troop surge in Iraq. They both can have an impact but I'm not sure it equates with being a strategy. The strategy should be to sell or spinoff any enterprise that is under performing immediately and expand those that are performing well, even if it means you do not remain the largest bank. No magic there -- it's the Jack Welch formula, it works, try it!

Furthermore, here is the leadership question; has Citigroup been operating inefficiently for years with too many unnecessary people and just now come to that realization? - not good, or have they decided that they will struggle along with less people and offer less in services internally and to their customers? - also not good! So I think I have to pay homage to my dad again, who often reminds me that "the fish stinks from the head" -- It's time to go Chuck!

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Sunday Funnies: Citigroup is all fired up originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 15 Apr 2007 15:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This week Alan Abelson, in his Barron's, Up & Down Wall Street (subscription required) commentary on the upcoming IPO by the Blackstone Group there was much to be cynical about. In reviewing the lengthy 200+ page prospectus he chortled at the 30 pages listing all the risks of investing.

The most amazing of disclosures was this: "Our general partner and it's affiliates have limited fiduciary duties to us and our common unit-holders, which may permit them to favor their own interests to the detriment of us and our common unit-holders" Can they state it any clearer than that - this is all about our opportunity, not about yours!

Last Sunday I called readers attention to this in less blatant terms when I posted: Sunday Funnies: Blackstone looking for more green and raised many questions as to why they need to do a public offering now? While Mr. Abelson and I are cynical about this IPO, we are no more cynical than the managers of the Blackstone Group who are taking advantage of a what might be a frothy market place.

Mr. Abelson, who I find provides one of the richer reads each week has been very worried about the frothy market for over a year now and each week marvels at the overall strength of the market with very bearish undertones and outright bemusement awaiting it's collapse. On this perspective I cannot agree. Abelson is wrong - he will be right someday - but not today, and there are many reasons.

• The mountains of cash in corporate coffers is higher than it has ever been since I have been investing over the last few decades.
• Many largely capitalized companies have been building shareholder value for the last five years and their stock prices have been relatively stagnant. There is no froth in General Electric (NYSE: GE), Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) or Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) and furthermore even Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) which may be over priced, is a much greater bargain this year than last, while it's earnings have started to catch up to it's prolific stock price.
• There are numerous companies in the market at fire-sale prices and all you have to do is look at my Chasing Value or Serious Money columns to find them.
• Demand and opportunity in China, India, Russia, Brazil, and eastern Europe has never been higher and if it slowed to half the current level of GDP growth would be double that of the U.S.
• Interest rates have been raised significantly over the last few years and are still at historic lows worldwide providing liquidity for investment and expansion.
• The market did not shoot up over the last four years as it did leading up to the bursting of the bubble that preceded it and if the market weakens it will do so slowly not with a burst. We might get to a point where we see a droopy market but not a collapse of equities.

If you want to see a real frothy market take a look at campaign fund raising / financing / spending, and the like. Among the presidential hopefuls, Democrats Clinton, and Obama have exceeded the $25 million mark and Republicans Giuliani, McCain and Romney are all expected to reach about $20 million. Since there will be only one winner unlike the stock market, look for more collapsed dreams here than anywhere else. The real winner will be the advertisers and the media that will be relieving them of the funds. Perhaps that should have been another positive for the market - I should have singled out the media companies that are licking their collagen inflated lips.

Disclosure: I own shares of JNJ.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Sunday Funnies: Blackstone IPO, Campaign Cash originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 08 Apr 2007 15:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

There are few people reading this story that do not know about the quality of Procter and Gamble (NYSE: PG) -- the company or the stock. In the first of my new chronicles titled Serious Money: GE, JNJ, PG, PEP or index funds?, several people commented about PG or asked me about it privately. Let me start by saying this is one that you should have on your watch list but I do not think it is ripe for picking at this time.

The stock is not only near a 52-week high but an all-time high, so no matter the quality of the company, caution should be exercised. It closed Friday at $63.80 having reached $66.33 on January 19, 2006. Oddly the stock collapsed in sympathy with the rest of the market March 2000, and a year later after rising 30% it fell back to the same place at around $30. Over the next five years, as you can see, it retraced its steps of the previous five years, and then some.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Procter & Gamble not ripe yet

Chasing Value: Procter & Gamble not ripe yet originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 26 Mar 2007 16:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Warren Buffett has acknowledged investing in Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) and the Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE:PG) in the past few years. Among all the endorsements a company could possibly get, this is better than a 5-Star rating from Morning Star and a a boooyaah! from James Cramer combined. Of course, Mr. Buffett's choices are far more limited than yours or mine, given the size of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A), the vessel he is navigating that could have been included in this review as well.

I was looking once again at large, well diversified companies that are broadly held by institutions and individuals alike that most investors would generally agree are safe havens. To round out the discussion, I have added General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) and PepsiCo Inc (NYSE:PEP). There are several others that could be added to this group but I have enough for this post's purpose.

The question is whether investors are better off buying into a few broadly held index funds or better off holding a few dividend paying large cap stocks? I am a firm believer in keeping at least half of the money you save, invested in the stock market, placed in indexed mutual funds, or exchange traded funds with low fees and low stock turnover, minimizing short term capital gains.

Continue reading Serious Money: GE, JNJ, PG, PEP or index funds?

Serious Money: GE, JNJ, PG, PEP or index funds? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 22 Mar 2007 14:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In correspondence with Amey Stone, (one of our beloved editors) almost two years ago, during a very shaky market, I did some rare speculating.

I preface this article by acknowledging that such exercises are usually pointless and not something I engage in very often. My deep value investing style is focused on companies and not markets, facts and verifiable high probability theories. Often I am the contrarian as in Me and my Merck: Should I keep it? Sometimes I am the curmudgeon (hopefully lovable curmudgeon) and I have scoffed at analysts (Analyzing the Analysts - It's all a joke right?) and prognosticators whose primary business is skimming fees from the top of your investment stash.

Among what I thought at the time were my verifiable high probability theories was that oil money, real estate money and Chinese money (from our sad trade deficit) was going to recirculate back into the stock market. Oil prices were just starting to move up, real estate was booming, and the Chinese were piling up billions of dollars of our treasury notes. Furthermore I thought the Chinese would not just be satisfied moving some of their debt instruments (bonds) into equities (stocks) but actually start shopping for U.S. companies. This came to pass in their acquisition of IBM's Think Pad (R) division by Levano, and their failed attempt to acquire Unocal, and they are still on the look-out for other opportunities.

So in early 2005 I made the case to Amey that we were going to see the Dow hit 11,000 by the end of the year and that we would hit 12,000 by the end of this year. Well of course the Dow Jones Industrial Average did hit 11,000 as anticpated climbing from about 10,000 mid year in '05 and I believe it will soon reach 12,000, maybe even by the end of the year, which was on my list of "speculations".

It's only a question of time. It's only another 3% +/- in a year of mixed results.

By the way, Warren Buffett comments about the trade deficit in a story about our loss of integrity in Warren Buffett, America's greatest storyteller.

So having just about hit all my targets from my notes to Amey of two years ago I started thinking about where we go from here. I think we are in for more of the same and for the same reasons. Plus a few new insights, if I may be so bold.

Continue reading DOW 14,000 here we come!

DOW 14,000 here we come! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 29 Sep 2006 18:29:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Having addressed some controversial issues like eBay and the real estate market through a series of posts, one of BloggingStocks most avid (and astute) readers asked me to tackle another tough issue -- Immigration reform.

He directed me to the following September 15 2006 article, "Immigration Raid Makes a Ghost Town." The story points out :

"Last month, the federal government reported that Georgia had the fastest-growing illegal immigrant population in the country. The number more than doubled from an estimated 220,000 in 2000 to 470,000 last year. This year, state lawmakers passed some of the nation's toughest measures targeting illegal immigrants, and Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue last week vowed a statewide crackdown on document fraud."

The article is clearly slanted toward the plight of the people that were hauled away, creating the "ghost town," and is slanted against the government. In this case I may have been swayed by similar feelings, as was our reader. However, I am not one to appreciate the political polarization we create among ourselves and I do not feel this article is balanced in its reporting.

Even in the paragraph I have quoted I would not mention the political affiliation of the Governor. Some might say it is normal to do so, but I say it adds nothing to the story and only fuels the wrong fire. This story will take volumes and I do not know how much energy I have to cover it, but if you do not have your own soap box, I am more than happy to share mine. Perhaps we can thrash out what this all means.

One of the first things that I noted in the article was the use of the term illegal "immigrants" as opposed to illegal "aliens," which by itself is an indication of where one's sympathies may lie.

Continue reading Business contends with illegal 'aliens,' immigrants in a Ghost Town?

Business contends with illegal 'aliens,' immigrants in a Ghost Town? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 29 Sep 2006 18:14:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Last Monday night I had a meeting with a friend (JW) who has been developing a new company over the last six years and has reached the point where he needs angel investors to help get the company to the next level.

I am sharing this story for those Blogging Stocks readers who are interested to learn more about how angel investing works -- both from the perspective of the company seeking funding and the investor considering ponying up cash.

I have done some fundraising on a small scale in the private equity market and have been an "Angel" investor once before, and approached many times. My first adventure in this arena has been a total loss to date, and is a real long shot to make a comeback.

In the case of that product, a plastics additive, the experience and execution of management did not equal the quality of the product. The learning curve of key players in the organization took longer than it should have and they burned through capital faster than the product could be successfully introduced into the market place. They have backed up a few steps and I understand that they are experiencing some sales growth. But their future is still a big question mark.

JW's company has developed a line of packaged gourmet meals, focused on health food (he brought some impressive samples) that are already on some chain store shelves.

Continue reading Angel investing: Here I go again?

Angel investing: Here I go again? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 27 Sep 2006 17:26:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) has many issues to contend with at the company's current size and complexity. Among them is the disparity of its growing line of products; the lower profit margins offered by hardware sales in comparison to its traditional high margin software sales; and the increased number of formidable competitors it faces in every direction it looks.

This is the continuation of Monday's story Micro'soft' vs Micro'hard' -- Break it up fellas! In the first article I touched upon the scale of Microsoft and their lack of agility. I concluded that even several tremendous successes (swallowing Apple (AAPL) whole was used to exemplify) would only have marginal affect on the share price in the aggregate.

This story is not about whether Microsoft makes worthy products, or is inventive, or can create the next big thing. This is about what Microsoft is, and what it should be as a company going forward. Does Microsoft want to get back to its high-growth days and generate the kind of excitement a Google, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) or MySpace (recently acquired by Newscorp (NYSE:NWS)) does, or do they want to be a large conglomerate. Given the number of new products that are announced weekly, and all the unfinished business the company has started, it is apparent that the die has been cast for the latter; it is a conglomerate.

Conglomerate \Con*glom"er*ate\, n.

Webster's: That which is heaped together in a mass or compacted from various sources; a mass formed of fragments; collection; accumulation.

OR

Continue reading Microsoft needs a NEW IDENTITY: Part 2 of Micro'soft' vs Micro'hard'

Microsoft needs a NEW IDENTITY: Part 2 of Micro'soft' vs Micro'hard' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 21 Sep 2006 14:59:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Contrarian (noun), pronounced con.trar.i.an. : A person who takes a contrary position or attitude; specifically : an investor who buys shares of stock when most others are selling and sells when others are buying.

Turning things inside out, and upside down is basic to contrarian and value investing. In this article I will share my WOW Principal of investing.

WOW Principal origin: Observing how my wife manages our family I have been in awe. It's true: "a mother's work is never done." To express my amazement, I have exclaimed WOW often. MOM upside down spells WOW! There are many times that Mom's world is upside down, juggling three kids and an ever increasing number of commitments with spectacular efficiency. She is also an architect and my partner in our architecture practice. In my bio, I referred to my relationship with my wife as my best investment, and since we met many years ago, I have been collecting dividends.

So, it is with my wife in mind that the WOW Principal of investing came to be. It is a perfect fit with my investing style. Simply stated: If, after thorough analysis of an investment, you are not in awe of your findings (company data, news, trends and surprises) and you do cannot exclaim WOW! (double WOW is even better!), then it is not a worthy investment.

If however, the investment does reach WOW status, you are in business. I do not invest unless I think there is an amazing opportunity and any risk is understandable and acceptable. Good is not good enough, it must be a great opportunity, and the case must be very convincing.

When things are upside down or people's perspective is jaded, there may be a deep value opportunity and my interest is peaked. At the point of discovery is a moment that begins when I say "hmm," and stroke my beard. Then I spend time with my investigation and analysis. But I do not fork over any cash until I find the WOW factor(s). If you find yourself scratching your head and saying huh? instead of "Wow," move on!

Continue reading The 'WOW Principal' of Investing: Find winners like MRK, Petro-China

The 'WOW Principal' of Investing: Find winners like MRK, Petro-China originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 18 Sep 2006 12:11:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.