Early this morning, Societe Generale cut GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to "sell" from "hold." The brokerage blamed the downgrade on the "looming threat" of generics to GSK's respiratory drug Advair. SocGen believes the market is "underestimating" the chances for a generic competitor to Advair in the U.S. by 2011.

Technically, the stock is facing resistance at the $40 level -- a level that has provided a hurdle in the past. Along with this potential resistance is the possibility that the equity may slip back below its 20-month moving average. This trendline has acted as resistance in the past, and now that the shares are positioned north of this trendline, it could act as support. The problem is that this trendline is in a sharp descending pattern.

It isn't all bad news for GSK, the good news is that the equity should find some support from its 10-week moving average. With this trendline providing support, any potential drop from this morning's news could be limited.

Lately, the Japanese pharma industry has flexed its M&A muscle, trying to find opportunities in global markets. And, the latest deal came this week: Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma agreed to shell out $2.6 billion for Sepracor Inc. (NASDAQ: SEPR). The deal is all-cash.

Why all the interest? There are several drivers. First, the strong yen has made deals fairly cheap. Next, the Japanese market is expected to be slow because of government mandates. And finally, Japanese pharma companies are coming up against expirations of major drugs.

Bright and early this morning, Roche Group (OTC: RHHB) announced first-half earnings and upped its annual earnings goal, thanks to impressive sales of Tamiflu. Roche's first-half profit (it only reports earnings twice) dropped 29% to $3.8 billion as the company was hit by costs related to its purchase of Genentech. That said, Roche upped its earnings guidance and forecast double-digit core earnings growth in both 2009 and 2010 -- the earlier forecast called for earnings to stay at 2008 levels.

"Like others, I've been trying to figure out how to play President Obama's policy initiatives in healthcare," says Glenn Rogers.

The contributing editor to Internet Wealth Builder adds, "I think the generic drug makers have the best chance of coming out of the upheaval in healthcare smelling like roses." Here, he looks at one favorite: Perrigo (NASDAQ: PRGO).

"I've chosen a lesser-known generic drug maker that I think should reward investors over the next 12 months with a market-beating performance; Perrigo Company is a leading manufacturer of generic over-the-counter and prescription pharmaceuticals.

In a period of economic distress, owning stocks with stable cash flows is a great way to avoid the carnage found in other parts of the market. One sector traditionally known to provide consistent cash flow to investors is the pharmaceutical industry.

Patent protection on drugs provides the industry with the ability to generate revenue unencumbered by competition. Investors generally pay a premium to own a piece of that stream -- no matter what is happening in the economy.

During the last few years, market premium for drug companies has been diminished. As drugs from the major pharmaceutical makers come off patent, revenues and cash flow suffers.

That fact explains why drug companies invest so much money on research and development. When older drugs come off patent they are replaced by a steady stream of new drugs.

What happens when that pipeline goes dry? Obviously, the company is not worth as much.

That has been the situation at Pfizer (NYSE: PFE). During the last five years, we have been hearing about a dwindling drug pipeline with no sign of abating. During that time, patents for working drugs only aged

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

A graph from the May 2008 issue of Harvard Business Review tells a story about the dumbing down of the global economy.

From an article, Rebuilding the R&D Engine in Big Pharma [subscription required] the graph shows the total shareholder returns for various industries in two time periods: from 1985 to 2000 and from 2001 to 2007. Here are three of the leading sectors from 1985 to 2000 (average annual shareholder returns are in parentheses):

• Pharmaceuticals (20.0%)
• Financials (18.8%)
• IT (17.4%)

Between 2001 and 2007, three of the leading sectors were:

• Energy (15.2%)
• Materials (14.3%)
• Financials (7.0%)

Chantix, an anti-smoking drug from Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), would seem to be good for people. Smoking causes heart and lung problems and who knows what else. The trouble with the drug is that it seems to cause heart problems, called cardiac arrhythmia, all on its own. That seems counter-productive.

The drug may also make some people crazy, at least to the level of causing suicide and depression in a portion of patients.

The Institute for Safe Medication Practices said, "Based on the data available now, the existing warnings are completely inadequate," according to The Wall Street Journal.

The news points to an ongoing problem in the drug industry. Big Pharma wants to get products to market fast and sell as much as it can. Many of the current drugs that get them revenue are going "off patent" and will be sold by generic drug companies. That kills most of the profits on the treatments.

But, in the race to get the drugs out, it seems that side effects are overlooked and overlooked often.

Profits versus people being sick or dead. Hard decision.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com. and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 letter.

At their investor day, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (ADR) (NASDAQ: TEVA), the world's largest generic drug maker, said that they expect to double revenues over the next 4 years. Teva predicts that they will grow faster than the generic market. While that is interesting in its own right, their view on the generic market in general is astounding.

"By 2012, Teva expects to have 30% of the U.S. market for generic prescriptions, up from about 20% now. Over 75% of U.S. prescriptions will be filled by a generic by 2012," the company said.

Wow! Three out of every four prescriptions will be filled by a generic in just four years from now. That's huge. If that is indeed the case Big-pharma needs to look out. Where are their profits going to come from? Even the big Bio-tech players are squirming over the possibility of bio-generics.

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (NASDAQ: TEVA), the world's largest generic drug maker, yesterday announced a change in top management. George S. Barrett, Chief Executive Officer, Teva North America, Corporate Executive VP, Global Pharmaceutical Markets has resigned from the Company. William S. Marth, currently President and Chief Executive Officer of Teva USA, will replace Mr. Barrett and assume the additional role of Chief Executive Officer of Teva North America effective immediately.

Marth is no newcomer to the Israeli TEVA. He has been a key player in the launch of new drugs in recent years. He knows the organization well, and I expect business to continue as is. With a really strong pipeline for '08 and '09, yesterday's 5% drop on the news, presents an attractive entry point for investors who want to catch the generic wave and invest in the 'best of breed' company.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has a position and owns stock in TEVA and is long the stock. He has no positions in any other stock mentioned as of 1/11/08.