George Bush posts
FeedPosted Mar 19th 2009 3:00PM by Zac Bissonnette (RSS feed)
Filed under: Books, Politics

We've all been wondering what President Bush would do after leaving office with the lowest approval ratings in history and now we have our answer: He's writing a book.
"I want people to understand the environment in which I was making decisions. I want people to get a sense of how decisions were made and I want people to understand the options that were placed before me," he told the Associated Press.
Continue reading Will you be buying George W. Bush's book?
Posted Dec 15th 2008 10:01AM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Politics, Financial Crisis
Flying shoe-dodger, President George W. Bush, has a track record of rewarding the guilty. After the faked intelligence that gave him the ammunition he needed to invade Iraq in 2004, Bush awarded a Presidential Medal of Freedom to CIA Director George "Slam Dunk" Tenet. And to reward the banks that got us into the current financial catastrophe, Bush rammed through Congress a bill that uses $700 billion of our tax dollars to pay bonuses to the executives who run those banks.
How did he do that? As usual, he did it secretively. The law that created the bailout bill includes provisions that limit executive compensation for banks that get bailout money. Specifically, the bill requires that banks report to the IRS any compensation above $500,000 paid to their top five executives. If that reporting does not occur, the IRS can impose tax penalties. Not only that, but there is no limit to what people below the top five can get paid -- so there never was any way to keep taxpayer money from paying millions to the traders and investment bankers who often get more than the CEO.
Continue reading Bush rewards the guilty with our tax dollars
Posted Oct 26th 2008 4:24PM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Economic data, Federal Reserve, Financial Crisis
Ben Bernanke lacks a strategy to deal with the financial crisis. He just keeps dropping more and more money from his helicopter and hopes it will jump start the economic system. The futures market has already baked in a 50 basis point interest rate cut for this coming Wednesday so with the Dow having lost 312 points last Friday, it would probably collapse even further if Bernanke backed off the rate cut.
But what is the point of this cut? 30-year fixed mortgage rates are higher now (6.47%) than they were in August 2007 (6.45%) when the Fed began cutting the Fed Funds rate from 5.25% to what would end up being 1% if the Fed indeed cuts by 50 basis points on Wednesday. Paul Krugman argues that the high mortgage rates may be a result of U.S. policy not to put its "full faith and credit" behind Fannie and Freddie debt -- thereby increasing its risk. If the Fed was trying to loosen up credit, these numbers suggest its rate cuts are not doing the job.
And While there are some who anticipate it will cut only 25 basis points, I am not sure why the Fed thinks this rate cut will do anything more than use up precious ammunition that might be more useful in an even more severe financial emergency. At 1%, there is not much further to cut. And with the November election fast approaching, it is clear that a real strategy to analyze and fix the myriad financial problems Bush leaves his successor will not happen until January.
Continue reading Will the Fed waste its dwindling ammo on a 50 basis point rate cut?
Posted Oct 19th 2008 10:40AM by Zac Bissonnette (RSS feed)
Filed under: Politics
The Associated Press reports that President Bush will hold an economic summit to discuss why the world is such a mess and what can be done to fix things before the entire financial system goes down the porcelain toilet. Bush and French President Nicolas Sarkozy and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso announced the retreat at the Presidential retreat at Camp David.
No dates or locations have been set yet, but the first summit would focus on seeking "agreement on principles of reform needed to avoid a repetition of the problems and assure global prosperity in the future." Later summits will focus on specifics. What will come of all this? Absolutely nothing, if I had to guess.
The reality is that President Bush has little to no credibility at home or abroad, and this summit looks like a pretty desperate effort to remain relevant. Given that he has some of the lowest approval ratings of any president in history, and substantive discussions about reform will likely have to wait until the new guy is sworn in.
It's not yet known whether the president-elect will attend the summit but, if he does, lame duck Bush's presence will be irrelevant.
Posted Sep 24th 2008 10:15PM by Jonathan Berr (RSS feed)
Filed under: Other issues, Housing, Financial Crisis

At perhaps the most critical moment in his presidency, George W. Bush looked into the teleprompter tonight and warned the American people that very bad things would happen to the economy unless Congress passed the $700 billion bailout for Wall Street.
Kudos to Bush's speech writers. He explained the credit crisis fairly succinctly. Of course, he neglected to mention that his administration's opposition to sensible regulation laid the groundwork for the financial maelstrom. That's an issue, though, which will be debated by historians for decades to come.
Details of the bill are still being hammered out. The administration has agreed to caps on executive pay on firms who seek assistance. Some sort of plan to give taxpayers an equity stake in firms that the government helps also seems likely, according to a
The New York Times.
The president had little choice but to reach across party lines because members of Congress were not buying the bill of goods being sold by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Paulson, in particular, showed remarkably poor political instincts by insisting that the bailout be approved as written. Whoever told him that Congress would give him a $700 billion blank check was crazy.
Meanwhile, the crisis is becoming the top issue of the presidential campaign. Republican John McCain today suspended his presidential campaign and called for Friday's presidential debate to be postponed. This is a stunt. McCain and Barack Obama do not sit on the relevant committees dealing with the crisis. Their presence in Washington will have little impact on the development of a deal.
Postponing the debates is an especially bad idea. The American people need to hear the plans McCain and Obama have for the economy. My colleague
Peter Cohan points out that McCain has said many things about the economy such as "the fundamentals of the economy are strong" which he probably now regrets.
Posted Sep 6th 2008 10:05AM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Deals, Bad news, Consumer experience, Personal finance, Politics, Headline news

In what
I feared might become a regular feature here, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) arranged for the takeover of the 11th failed bank of 2008 on Friday. As I
posted, the FDIC likes to close banks on Friday after hours so they can reopen as branches of the acquiring bank on the following Monday morning. According to the
Associated Press, the bank in question is Nevada's Silver State Bank.
Nevada State Bank of Las Vegas will take over the insured deposits of Silver State -- which had $2 billion in assets and $1.7 billion in deposits at the end of June. AP reports that "[Silver State's] branches will reopen Monday as offices of Nevada State Bank in Nevada and National Bank of Arizona in Arizona."
John McCain's son, Andrew, who is also CFO of his mom's beer distributorship, "sat on the boards of Silver State Bank and of its parent, Silver State Bancorp, starting in February but resigned in July citing 'personal reasons.' Andrew McCain also was a member of the bank's audit committee, responsible for oversight of the company's accounting," according to AP.
Continue reading Bank Failure Count: 2008's 11th bank fails, McCain's son was director
Posted Aug 13th 2008 2:46PM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad news, Industry, Scandals, Economic data, Politics, Housing, Recession
The Washington Post reports that the number of bank failures has been surprisingly low. But the crunch count is likely to grow as the problem bank list triples from 90 to 300 over the next three years. Meanwhile, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) could run out of money to pay off depositors of future failed banks unless it raises its deposit insurance rates from their current 5.4 cents per $100 deposits.
But the most interesting question is whether the White House is propping up banks that should fail so that it can push the biggest part of the cleanup into the lap of the next President. It is certainly bringing out all the biggest economic guns to delay the inevitable reckoning from the $8 trillion credit collapse. It spent $29 billion bailing out Bear Stearns, sent $160 billion worth of checks to taxpayers, cut interest rates from 5.25% to 2%, and seems belatedly to be enforcing regulations against manipulation of oil trading.
The Post quotes industry experts who think that the FDIC is propping up many banks. For instance, Bert Ely of Ely & Co., a bank consulting firm in Alexandria, VA, told the Post, "They are dragging their feet in forcing these banks to reserve realistically. Some of these banks could have been closed two or three quarters earlier." And Ken Thomas, a lecturer in finance at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, told the Post that the FDIC's foot dragging would only cost taxpayers more in the long run. Thomas said, "In some of these cases, I believe regulators should act sooner than later to prevent future losses to the fund."
Continue reading Is the White House pushing bank failures onto the next administration's plate?
Posted Aug 6th 2008 1:55PM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Russia, OfficeMax Inc (OMX), BP p.l.c. ADS (BP), News Corp'B' (NWS)
Russian business runs on different rules. News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Rupert Murdoch, who has been doing business in China for years, is nervous about his Russian enterprises. This morning, the FBI announced it had rounded up a ring of data thieves, many from former Soviet Union countries. And then there's the little matter of BP-TNK, a joint venture between BP (NYSE: BP) and a Russian company, whose Russian shareholders are booting out its Western executives so they can take over the operation.
Here's what Silicon Alley insider reports Murdoch had to say about doing business in Russia: "We have great growing business there but just -- this is purely me, I'm sorry, I'm -- the more I read about investments in Russia, the less I like the feel of it. The more successful we'd be, the more vulnerable we'd be to have it stolen from us, so there we sell now."
In case you missed it, The Detroit Free Press reports that an international ring of data thieves used wardriving -- the practice of stealing data from unprotected Wi-Fi networks -- to take 40 million identities, use the information to print fake ATM cards, and steal millions of dollars. The corporate victims include customers of TJX (NYSE: TJX), Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), and OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX). Five of the 11 defendants are from former Soviet Union countries -- "one is from Estonia, three are from Ukraine, and one is from Belarus."
Continue reading Why do we do business with Russia?
Posted Jul 23rd 2008 1:36PM by Zac Bissonnette (RSS feed)
Filed under: Politics, Presidential elections

In these times of uncertainty, it's good to know that we can look to our president as a beacon of wisdom, shining light and nuance on the tough economic challenges our country is facing.
The New York Times reports that Bush summed things up this way at a Republican fund raiser: "Wall Street got drunk. . . It got drunk, and now it's got a hangover. The question is, How long will it sober up and not try to do all these fancy financial instruments?""
That kind of trenchant insight must be the true benefit of a Harvard MBA. I'm tempted to make a reference to the fact that George "Choked on a Pretzel" Bush knows all about drunkenness and hangovers, but instead I'll keep this non-personal. Although, maybe I won't: How long between Bush's last beer and his first run for office? Maybe that's how long it'll take Wall Street to sober up. Could be a quick turnaround!
But with bailouts of Fannie and Freddie set to cost taxpayers
$25 billion -- to say nothing of the Bear Stearns fiasco -- it looks like this decade-long round of Grey Goose was on us. Cheers!
Posted May 29th 2008 10:26AM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Amazon.com (AMZN)
The White House is in overdrive promoting former press secretary Scott McClellan's What Happened. That promotion has helped drive it to the number one selling position on Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN). While Amazon will benefit from the sales of the book, the stock is more than fairly valued.
The White House's promotion is based on its passionate response to the confirmation bias it demonstrated in the run up to the Iraq war. As I wrote in this Business Strategy Review article, confirmation bias is when facing a major decision, one exhibits an unwillingness to admit conflicting data – no matter how salient – to influence a closed point of view. Mclellan points out that the White House decided to go to war against Iraq a year before its start and manufactured a false "case" to sell it.
McClellan pointing this out is hardly news. But I thought his comments about George W. Bush's cocaine use, as reported by 6abc.com, were more revealing. Recalling a 1999 conversation with Bush, McClellan writes: "'The media won't let go of these ridiculous cocaine rumors,' I heard Bush say. 'You know, the truth is I honestly don't remember whether I tried it or not. We had some pretty wild parties back in the day, and I just don't remember.'
Continue reading Will Amazon profit from McClellan book?
Posted May 27th 2008 10:20AM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Politics, Housing, Federal Reserve, Recession
Guess what? The Fed's interest rate cuts are hurting more than they're helping. Since August 2007, the Fed has cut interest rates from 5.25% to 2%. It thought that these cuts would help the housing market and unfreeze the credit markets. But all it's accomplished has been to fuel inflation thanks to a dollar that's lost 72% of its value since January 2001 when it traded at 92 cents to the Euro compared to $1.58 today. Have you been to a gas station or supermarket recently?
So this morning's report from Reuters -- that home prices fell five times faster than during the last housing recession -- did not come as great news. Specifically, single-family homes plunged a record 14.1% in the first quarter from a year earlier, marking a pace five times faster than the last housing recession, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller national home price index. Economists expected prices for the 20-city index to fall 2.0% on month and 14.0% from a year earlier.
Meanwhile, the Fed's interest rate cuts don't seem to be helping much. That's because they don't treat the basic problem at all -- they're just fueling inflation. The basic problem is that banks have hundreds of billions of junk -- $500 billion in Level 3 assets to be technical about it -- on their balance sheet and they can't raise enough capital to write off those lousy assets. So they aren't lending to consumers, businesses or each other.
By the way, do you know who was president during the last housing recession? George Bush. Quite a legacy for that family, for America, and for the next president...
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.
Posted May 6th 2008 5:57PM by Michael Fowlkes (RSS feed)
Filed under: After the bell, Earnings reports, Forecasts, Bad news, Products and services, Management, Competitive strategy, NIKE, Inc'B' (NKE), Crocs Inc (CROX)

It wasn't that long ago that Wall Street was in love with
Crocs, Inc (NASDAQ:
CROX), the maker of the trendy slippers that took the world by storm last year. After going on a tear for most of 2007, the stock started to break down last November, and has been in a tail spin for the past 5 months.
The company is going to be reporting its first quarter numbers tomorrow after the market close, and all signs are pointing to yet another troublesome quarter for the company.
Earnings.com is showing Wall Street estimates of 10 cents a share, but that number does not really hold too much water after the company announced a much weaker forecast last month in its preliminary release.
Last month,
CROX shocked Wall Street when it said that it expected to see a 5 cent per share loss in the quarter, and revenues falling somewhere between $195 and $200 million. After that news came out, the already troubled stock took a serious nose dive, and gave up around 40% of its value.
Continue reading Crocs first quarter earnings preview
Posted Apr 24th 2008 9:09AM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Products and services, Boeing Co (BA), Politics, Northrop Grumman (NOC)
Despite excellent earnings from Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) yesterday, a bit of a shadow still hangs over the company. That's because in February the Air Force awarded a $100 billion contract for in-flight refueling craft -- known as tankers -- to EADS's Airbus and Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC). Boeing is currently challenging this award. But an interview I did for my book on Boeing suggests that Boeing will not win this contract because George W. Bush and John McCain want to award the contract to Bush's new friends: France's Nicolas Sarkozy and Germany's Angela Merkel.
I got this theory from a veteran Wall Street analyst who covers the aircraft industry. He suggested that Boeing lost the Tanker bid because John McCain -- who is ranking member on the Senate Armed Services Committee -- had the Air Force change the specifications for the tanker bid so Airbus and Northrop would be able to field a competitive bid. My source noted that the one problem with the change was that the Air Force did not inform Boeing about it.
After the bid was awarded to Airbus, it became clear that the original specifications had changed from a small, 767-sized craft to a medium-sized 777 one. During the review process, my source contends that Boeing asked the Air Force if the 767-sized craft was what it wanted. Boeing also told the Air Force that it would be happy to bid with a different model if the Air Force wanted. But the Air Force told Boeing that it still wanted the 767-sized craft.
Continue reading Did Bush and McCain give the $100 billion tanker project to Airbus?
Posted Mar 17th 2008 4:31PM by Michael Fowlkes (RSS feed)
Filed under: Management, eBay (EBAY), Politics, Presidential elections

Over the past ten years,
eBay (NASDAQ:
EBAY)'s CEO,
Meg Whitman, has had a love / hate relationship with eBay users. No matter what your personal thoughts are regarding Whitman, you have to give it to her; she did take eBay to levels no one would have dreamed possible just ten years ago.
Well, her tenure at eBay is coming to an end, and her next move is into politics, working
high up in Senator John McCain's Presidential campaign.
Back in January, Whitman announced that she would be stepping down from eBay to pursue philanthropy and politics, and her first big step is going to be serving as co-chair of Senator McCain's
national presidential campaign.
While we still have not reached the point of McCain being announced the official Republican candidate for the upcoming election, it is all but a forgone conclusion that McCain is going to be the Republican's choice for November's pivotal election in America. After a rocky eight years with George Bush running the show, the Republicans are definitely going to have their hands full with this year's election, and Whitman is coming on board to have a leading role in the campaign's financing and policy development.
Continue reading eBay (EBAY)'s outgoing CEO jumps into politics
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