This week, some of the top veterans in private equity -- TPG's David Bonderman, Carlyle's David Rubenstein, and KKR's George Roberts -- got together at a conference in Hong Kong. And, all in all, it was fairly depressing (hey, I guess that's what happens when you lose billions and billions of dollars).
Take Bonderman. He thinks the downturn will be protracted, calling it an L-shaped recession (the more common description is a V-shaped recession, which means there is a strong snapback). In fact, he thinks U.S. unemployment will hit 10% or so.
Then again, keep in mind that Bonderman lost about $1.3 billion on his six month investment in Washington Mutual.
Despite all this, Bonderman still has an appetite for investments. For example, he's focusing on the debt securities from hedge funds. Because of massive redemptions, the prices are at distressed levels.
Rubenstein also gave a grim presentation (he thinks the downturn can last several years). But, he is still bullish on some opportunities, especially in Asia. For example, he thinks China offers some compelling valuations and that the country may become more open to outside investments.
Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Streetsmart Guide to Short Selling: Techniques the Pros Use to Profit in Any Market
. He is also the founder of BizEquity, a valuation website.
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