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Soros: U.S. economy will be a drag on global growth

One of the world's leading investors is cautioning investors large and small not to expect the world's largest economy to be the primary engine of growth for the world, as it has in previous, post-World War II expansions.

Billionaire investor George Soros said the United States will be a drag on global growth, Reuters reported Friday.

Further, Soros, speaking at a forum sponsored by The Economist magazine held at the New York Stock Exchange, said if market fundamentals determined it, the U.S. dollar should be falling against China's currency, the yuan, which would allow the U.S. to contain its current account deficit, Reuters reported.

Continue reading Soros: U.S. economy will be a drag on global growth

Soros to put $1 billion into clean-tech companies

The clean technology wave just got a little bigger. This tends to be a side-effect of interest from billionaire investor George Soros. And, as usual, it's more than just money; it's more than just a return. Soros, yet again, is trying to save the world. Interestingly, the bold move was announced at a meeting on climate change sponsored by Project Syndicate – an international association consisting of 430 newspapers from 150 countries (and thus with clear ties to the past, rather than future).

The investor and founder of Soros Fund Management LLC is planning to put $1 billion into clean-tech opportunities using what he calls "rather stringent criteria," which involves being "profitable but should also actually make a contribution to solving the problem [i.e., of clean technology adoption and proliferation]." Soros didn't provide any other details on the nature or scope of his investments.

Continue reading Soros to put $1 billion into clean-tech companies

Comfort Zone Investing: The glass isn't half empty -- it's half full

Summertime....and the livin' ain't easy. The economy's in worse shape than the administration thought, even after pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into it. More people are losing their jobs. Unemployment's at 8.5% and according to many economists will go higher, maybe above 10% before the layoffs stop. Gas at the pump has gone above $3 again, even with the price of oil starting to show some weakness. Home prices are still going down and foreclosures continue to rise. Defaults on consumer credit is at all-time highs. When will it ever end?

Don't know. No one does. But that isn't a reason to stop investing, to quit preparing your portfolio for the next big upward move that will surely come. You doubt that? Just look at a price chart for the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the last 100 years. It's full of periods where the line is going down, only to be followed by large increases on the upside. Unless the whole capitalist system is gone forever, history will repeat. There will be an upward swing to this market, and it's more likely sooner rather than later.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: The glass isn't half empty -- it's half full

Soros blasts bailout as one-sided

The U.S. financial markets have soared over the past month, but one of the few people who has gotten extremely rich timing the markets says that we shouldn't get too excited just yet.

Hedge fund guru George Soros told Bloomberg that "It's a bear-market rally because we have not yet turned the economy around. This isn't a financial crisis like all the other financial crises that we have experienced in our lifetime."

Mr. Soros had generally kind words for President Obama's performance but was cautious on housing: "There are some signs of hitting bottom, but we are not there yet. A lot has been done to forestall foreclosures."

Continue reading Soros blasts bailout as one-sided

George Soros says commercial property values to decline 30%

George Soros is one of the truly legendary figures in world finance. He doesn't use fancy mathematics and he doesn't follow the crowd. In 2007 he predicted the coming collapse of the world financial system. Unlike other pundits, Soros has the courage to make huge bets, often using his "feelings" about what he sees is happening.

In 2007, he came out of retirement to trade his hedge fund and made $2.9 billion. This past year his fund made $.1.7 billion. He is listed as one of the top 25 hedge fund traders in the world, with an estimated net worth of $11 billion.

Continue reading George Soros says commercial property values to decline 30%

Soros says world is witnessing end of pure, unregulated capitalism model

You might say that a key investor, one of the exemplars, is no longer bullish on the pure bulls. Or on the unregulated bulls. Or on the totally free market bulls.

Billionaire investor George Soros told Bloomberg News that the current global financial crisis originated during the deregulation of the 1980s, and signals the end of the free market model that has dominated capitalist countries, and indeed much of the developed world, since the the end of the Cold War with the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Continue reading Soros says world is witnessing end of pure, unregulated capitalism model

Soros covered his short position in the British pound

When financier George Soros makes a play, traders stand up and take notice. In 1992, Soros made $1 billion by selling the British pound.

Recently, he used the same strategy of betting against the pound. However, when the pound traded below $1.40 last Wednesday, Soros decided to cover his short position. The pound has traded up to $1.4256 against the dollar on Friday. As demand for the pound rose, it had the effect of putting pressure on the U.S. dollar.

Continue reading Soros covered his short position in the British pound

Financial Felons: Where are they now and is there a next generation coming?

We recently presented a look at some of the most notorious financial felons of contemporary times.

Since then, news has included the indictment of Mark Cuban for insider trading in a case that is somewhat reminiscent of Martha Stewart's case. According to the SEC, the billionaire entrepreneur asked his broker to sell all his shares of Mamma.com after the company's CEO confidentially told him of an impending stock offering that would dilute the value of all existing shares. By selling before the information became public, Cuban is said to have sidestepped losses of more than $750,000. Cuban insists, though, that no agreement existed to keep the information confidential.

And then there was the indictment in Texas of Vice President Dick Cheney, along with former U.S. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales and others. There seems to be a conflict of interest between the vice president's influence on the federal agency that oversees federal immigration detention centers and his substantial holdings in Vanguard Group, which invests in private prison companies. But does the lame-duck county district attorney, who was a no-show in court, have the authority to bring charges against federal officials with regard to federally run institutions?

Continue reading Financial Felons: Where are they now and is there a next generation coming?

Financial Felons: George Soros

This post is part of a feature in which we wonder whatever happened to some notorious financial felons. See all 17.

Just say it's been "a long and winding financial road" for billionaire investor George Soros -- but one that's had more smooth traveling than detours.

True, the Hungarian-born Soros was fined $2 million by a French court in 2002 for insider trading, which France's highest court upheld on an appeal on June 14, 2006, but other than that transgression, critics would be hard pressed to find other operational/financial flaws.

Soros is perhaps best known for one of the most cunning and successful short-term plays in investment fund history. On September 16, 1992 Soros sold short more than $10 billion worth of the British pound, after the Bank of England failed to raise interest rates. Soros' profit on the ensuing fall in the pound: about $1.1 billion.

Further, the other dimensions of Soros life that some critics would cite -- his social activism and philanthropy -- are viewed as positives by many others. Soros has promoted nonviolent democratization in Central and Eastern Europe, and other states, and pledged hundreds of millions of dollars to numerous universities globally and to antipoverty programs in Africa, among many other charitable acts.

Continue reading Financial Felons: George Soros

Why a stock market rally can't be sustained

Yesterday, the market had a swing of over 900 points as indexes hit new lows for the year and then pushed upward to close 6% or so higher. Overnight, markets in Asia and Europe staged rallies of their own.

The stock market may march up for a while, but that can't be sustained and the odds are likely that it will crash and make new lows again before year's end.

The fiction is that the markets trade based on what they see six months into the future. Perhaps they see GDP recovering by then. Not a chance.

George Soros said yesterday that there is some chance that the world economy will enter a depression next year. That may be extreme, but a majority of business leaders and economists who want to be heard on the subject say that this is the most significant downturn of their lifetimes.

There is a view that falling housing prices are at the core of the disaster that has overwhelmed the financial structure of the country and is now hurting everything from retail sales to tech company revenue. Housing may be helped by government programs, but if unemployment hits 8% or better next year, the number of people who have to give up their homes could rise sharply. Lower interest rates do not help people out of work.

Another misconception about the future is that oil prices will continue to fall. With some OPEC nation's facing budget deficits due to crude dropping from over $140 to $55, the cartel will have to cut production to meet demand. That may mean a huge cut, but OPEC can match the drop in the global need for oil with a paltry supply.

The stock market has not stopped going down.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Congress goes after hedge funds

Congress will bring in a bunch of big hedge fund managers like George Soros and ask them why they make so much money. It will also try to figure out if they control too much of the trading on Wall Street and borrow too much money from banks putting them at risk if the hedge funds default.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Already, momentum is building to monitor hedge-fund activities more closely and curtail some trading activities, through greater regulatory oversight and lower borrowing limits, industry insiders said."

The government may be going a little too far here. For starters, hedge funds are private institutions with the exception of a couple which have gone public. To a large extent what they pay their traders is based on a formula which their customers accept. These fees are not forced on anyone. It is not an odd analogy to say that a farmer who makes $100 million because he owns 50,000 acres of corn has reaped what he deserves for his labor. But, he is not going to be in front of Congress testifying about what he made. Free enterprise has given him his reward.

On the issue of whether hedge funds borrow too much money and then put it as risk by making aggressive trades, that can be regulated from the side of the banks. If the government thinks banks take too many risks in lending, it can curtail that through actions by the FDIC or the Fed.

The great majority of hedge funds make their profits fair and square. Regulating risk in private enterprise takes the incentives out of making money for hedge fund clients. And, that damages the economy's ability to create wealth, and through that, demand for goods and services.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

Soros sees ray of light in bank recapitalization plan

One of the world's leading investors is expressing cautious optimism - - underscoring cautious - - regarding the fate of the global financial system.

Billionaire investor George Soros said Monday a pledge by European leaders to guarantee new bank financing is "a positive step" may help stabilize global financial markets, Bloomberg News reported.

Soros: We're finally getting the leadership we need


"In the last 72 hours, I think the European governments got religion and realized that this is a serious problem,'' Soros said at a press conference in Washington, Bloomberg News reported. "People are looking for some leadership and finally they are getting it." Soros is chairman of the $20 billion Fund Management LLC.

Along with actions by the major central banks to increase the supply of dollars in the global money supply, Europe's major industrialized nations announced fiscal policies to back bank-to-bank loans and recapitalize banks, The New York Times reported Monday. Britain said it will invest $73 billion in its banks, Germany is investing up to 500 billion euros or about $680 billion, and France will create an agency to offer state guarantees for banks and to channel money to them.

Further, Soros underscored that the United States government must recapitalize solvent banks, ft.com reported Monday. The U.S. said it intends to do that, but has not yet released details of its plan. Soros would like the U.S. government's recapitalization to take the form of preferred shares, which would dilute existing shareholders, but with private capital given the right to subscribe on the same terms, if private investors are able to put up more money, ft.com reported.

Continue reading Soros sees ray of light in bank recapitalization plan

Will the Paulson plan make money? Don't forget where we're getting the cash!

The latest trend among pundits who want to look like they know what they're talking about is to assert boldly that the Fed's $700 billion purchase of dodgy mortgage assets no one understands or wants poses no risk to taxpayers and will surely make us money!

In an op-ed piece (subscription required) for The Wall Street Journal, Andy Kessler asserts that "My analysis suggests that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (a former investment banker, no less, not a trader) may pull off the mother of all trades, which could net a trillion dollars and maybe as much as $2.2 trillion -- yes, with a "t" -- for the United States Treasury."

I don't understand why, if that's true, Warren Buffett, George Soros, Wilbur Ross and Carlos Slim aren't diving in to make a bailout unnecessary. Warren's a nice guy, but I don't think he's passing on all those profits to taxpayers out of the goodness of his heart. Take the hint: taxpayers are not going to get rich paying artificially high prices for assets that the best investors in the world won't touch with a ten-foot pole.

Another thing to remember: we're buying the $700 billion in crap securities on the margin. We're borrowing the money because our federal government doesn't have enough cash to bail out a Subway franchisee without hitting up the debt markets. So any calculation about what kind of return we'll earn needs to include the hundreds of billions of dollars in interest we'll be paying for the privilege of buying those assets.

A sage comment from Wilbur Ross

Wilbur Ross, the world's most famous buyer of bankrupt companies, who is a sage in his own right, attacked the government''s bank bailout plan. Like Warren Buffett and George Soros, the media hangs on his comments. He has made a billion dollar fortune and is, therefore, considered smarter than most people, whether that is true of not.

Ross has a simple message. Savings banks will do nothing if mortgage-holders are not saved in the process. If the mortgage mess gets worse, banks will continue to have trouble over time, even if the Treasury does put $700 billion into the market.

Ross's comment was straight-forward. He told Reuters that "none of the recent actions to stabilize the financial system addressed the root of the problem -- helping Americans make their mortgage payments."

So, why is the government attacking the crisis from the wrong end of the system? The answer probably is that it is easier to save a small number of banks than it is to salvage hundreds of thousand of mortgages. Renegotiating all of those loans, resetting interest rates, and keeping some homes from foreclosure is simply too difficult a task. Many members of Congress do not view it that way. They want mortgage assistance programs added to the bailout bill.

Not matter what the level of challenge, the federal government has to give banks direct incentives to help the mortgage holder. Nothing can save the economy if hundreds of thousands of more home loans go into default. At that point, the real estate market could collapse and not recover for years.

The $700 billion rescue package would only be a drop in the bucket.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Famed investor, Jim Rogers, still bullish on commodities

In his investment career, Jim Rogers has made some great calls. He is the co-founder of the legendary hedge fund, the Quantum Fund (which got its start in the early 1970s), where he made a fortune on commodities trades (his partner was George Soros).

And since the late 1990s, Rogers has yet again been a bull on the commodities market. In fact, he has written a book on the topic, Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market.

But, with the recent plunge in commodities, is Rogers changing his views? Nope.

If anything, he's bullish for the next ten years (this is according to a speech he made at an investor conference in Kuala Lumpur). Basically, the recent fall-off is a correction. And, expect many more (after all, this was the case during the 1970s).

Basically, Rogers thinks there will need to be a massive global recession to derail the commodities boom. And, he doesn't see any signs of this.

Interestingly enough, Rogers said he is considering investing in base metals again.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

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Last updated: November 14, 2009: 04:39 PM

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