Because a long, holiday weekend can be a great time to pause and reflect -- to take a step back and look at the bigger picture -- here are some highlights from BloggingStocks a year ago today: May 25, 2007.
Last week Forbes released its annual list of the fastest growing tech stocks, and it shouldn't be much of a surprise that Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) topped the list, with nearly $15 billion in sales, representing five-year sales growth of 155%, and 30% EPS growth. To make the list, companies had to have significant sales growth over the past year and five years, as well as a good earnings forecast for the next three to five years. Companies with significant legal problems or corporate governance issues were excluded.
So if, like Aaron Katsman, Georges Yared, and Jim Cramer, you are bullish on tech stocks, then there's plenty on the Forbes lists worth taking a look at.
Not so fast, you folks crying bear! In the latest edition of StockWatch: Between The Bells, BloggingStocks' own Georges Yared says this is still a bull market, although it's undergone significant correction. The chief investment strategist of Yared Investment Research says this is a market of much opportunity.
The holiday season may have just begun, but the earnings season continues. Here are some highlights of this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:
Well, the European markets have been struggling with many of the same credit concerns as in the U.S. Morningstar (NASDAQ: MORN) has gone looking for investment opportunities in European markets, and found such contenders as Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU), France Telecom (NYSE: FTE), and Cadbury Schweppes (NYSE: CSG). However, like Mr. Yared, Morningstar analysts found themselves focusing on a pair of wide-moat lenders that had been unfairly punished by reactions to the current problems.
In May and June, I wrote a series on what I think could be the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years. It was a fun exercise and a lot of work. Since the series finished in mid-June, we've been knocked down from 25 stocks to 22 stocks: Opsware (NASDAQ: OPSW), Kyphon (NASDAQ: KYPH) and Color Kinetics (NASDAQ: CLRK) are all being acquired for significant premiums by obviously much larger companies.
We have another on our list that, although it's not being acquired, the stock has doubled in value these past 2 1/2 months. Blue Coat Systems (NASDAQ: BCSI) was written up on June 8. The stock was trading at $44, but it's now at $84.80. Blue Coat reported an absolutely explosive July quarter. Revenues came in at $62.4 million versus Street consensus of $58 million, representing a 71% year-over-year increase and a 15% up-sequentially from the April quarter.
The wide-area-network (WAN) optimization product set is gaining mainstream momentum. The even better news for Blue Coat Systems is that it is about to embark on an excellent new product cycle. The company saw bookings, pipeline and deferred revenues all go up substantially this past quarter and provide tremendous visibility going forward.
I had the pleasure this morning of participating on a conference call with five British portfolio managers. Not surprisingly, the discussion, over tea of course, was about the state of the U.S. stock market. Combined, these five gentlemen manage about $16 billion in U.S. stock funds. Once the crumpets were finished and before the second cup of tea was poured, we began the dissection of what's happening in the U.S. It's always good to have perspective from across the "Pond."
To the man, all five believe the U.S. is still a "bit on the cheap side" in terms of valuations. Consistent growth pockets exist, especially in the technology sector. The portfolio managers were enthused about Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), Apple Inc. ( NASDAQ: AAPL) (although Duncan was aggravated because his 6-year-old son dropped his iPod into the bathtub last night), Hewlett Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL). All four of these companies have a high degree of revenue and earnings momentum and of course, strong international sales.
When the subject turned to the U.S. financials, we had some differences. The differences had to do with timing and if there is more bad news to come. The five agreed with me that the big five American banks have a diverse enough stream of revenues and earnings so that any more mortgage issues that come up would be a minor hit to their earnings expectations. The big five are Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM). Three of the five felt that all are in a very secure earnings position, but possibly Washington Mutual could still see some "dodgier times." Two of the five portfolio managers felt that the general earnings expectations for the 3rd and 4th quarters could encounter a slight miss.
Many analysts and traders will cite fundamentals or technicals to explain why the market might or might not rally from this level. In the end, it all comes down to sentiment and market dynamics.
In these volatile times, traders are known for rapidly switching from euphoric optimism to gloomy pessimism. For evidence of this you simply need to watch Cramer for several weeks in a row. I've found that in any given longer-term period, Cramer has a huge tendency to "flip-flop" on his opinions of companies, industries, and the overall market. But he's not to blame -- nearly all of Wall Street's short-term players are like this.
Truth is, the most recent downturn in the market (excluding Thursday and Friday) was much more than noise, and I firmly believe that the Fed cutting rates saved the market, at least over the short term (futures were pointing way down for Friday before the Fed raised).
However, I think the market has to rally if Monday is an up day. Why? Because Wall Street players, which had been so powerfully negative on the market over the last few weeks, will have to shift their position on the markets and increasing their "net-long" exposure. In doing so, they will likely be forced to cover some shorts and add to some longs -- increasing demand for stocks. I believe that this factor was a primary cause of the rocketing market on Friday and, from who I've spoken to, many funds have no adequately adjusted their net-long exposure and are waiting for a "confirmation move" on Monday.
Last week Forbes released its annual list of the 
When BloggingStocks contributor 
I had the pleasure this morning of participating on a conference call with five British portfolio managers. Not surprisingly, the discussion, over tea of course, was about the state of the U.S. stock market. Combined, these five gentlemen manage about $16 billion in U.S. stock funds. Once the crumpets were finished and before the second cup of tea was poured, we began the dissection of what's happening in the U.S. It's always good to have perspective from across the "Pond."
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