BloggingStocks http://www.bloggingstocks.com BloggingStocks http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/media/feedlogo.gif BloggingStocks http://www.bloggingstocks.com en-us Copyright 2012 Weblogs, Inc. The contents of this feed are available for non-commercial use only. Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/<![CDATA[Tribute to Georges Yared: Jimmy Page, Led Zeppelin and Listerine]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/09/09/tribute-to-georges-yared-jimmy-page-led-zeppelin-and-listerine/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/09/09/tribute-to-georges-yared-jimmy-page-led-zeppelin-and-listerine/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/09/09/tribute-to-georges-yared-jimmy-page-led-zeppelin-and-listerine/#commentsFiled under:

Editors Note: Today we learned that Georges Yared, one of our most impassioned bloggers, died suddenly on Sunday, September 7, 2008. He was 53.

Georges was a brilliant investor and an insightful commentator on many companies. He loved Starbucks, Apple and discovering the 'next big thing' in retail, technology and restaurant stocks. This post on BJ's Restaurant and Brewery was so popular it was forwarded 190 times.

Georges also loved Led Zeppelin, and we thought his post on meeting Jimmy Page would be appropriate to re-run in his memory. This post originally ran March 10, 2007.

I took the train from Central London to Gatwick Airport to catch my plane home to the U.S. I have done this over 200 times in the past 16 years and I can almost do the steps with my eyes closed. As I was leaving the train at Gatwick Airport to make my way to the warmth and gratitude of the Northwest Airlines ticket clerk, I saw an older guy waiting to board the train with what appeared to be a 5- or 6-year-old boy; I figured it was a grandchild.

I brushed past this gentleman, took three steps when I felt I had been hit by a bolt of lightening. That's Jimmy Page! It was Jimmy Page, founder and lead guitarist of what many feel was the finest rock band of all time -- Led Zeppelin. I looked back as he very gently lifted his grandson onto the train and took his seat. I figured, if not now, when?

I hopped back on and gently asked him "Are you Jimmy Page?" He stood up and respectfully said yes while shaking my hand. I was speechless. Am I a 51-year-old groupie? The train had 15 minutes before leaving to go back to Central London. I asked Jimmy if I could chat with him for a few moments. He said, "Yes, of course, please sit down. I do not get the opportunity to chat with fans very often," probably thinking -- yeah, a fan this old!!

First question I asked was, "Why don't you guys reunite and tour? Put the great John Bonham's son Jason on the drums! " Jimmy said he would love to tour, but that lead singer Robert Plant was not interested at the moment. Ever the gentleman, Jimmy said, "You know, I am over 60 years of age, and the rest are approaching 60. We need to do this soon!"

Continue reading Tribute to Georges Yared: Jimmy Page, Led Zeppelin and Listerine

Tribute to Georges Yared: Jimmy Page, Led Zeppelin and Listerine originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 09 Sep 2008 15:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>georges yaredGeorgesYaredTue, 09 Sep 2008 15:15:00 EST<![CDATA[StockWatch: Between the Bells with Georges Yared]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/11/16/stockwatch-between-the-bells-with-georges-yared/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/11/16/stockwatch-between-the-bells-with-georges-yared/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/11/16/stockwatch-between-the-bells-with-georges-yared/#commentsFiled under: , , , , , , , ,



Not so fast, you folks crying bear! In the latest edition of StockWatch: Between The Bells, BloggingStocks' own Georges Yared says this is still a bull market, although it's undergone significant correction. The chief investment strategist of Yared Investment Research says this is a market of much opportunity.

Continue reading StockWatch: Between the Bells with Georges Yared

StockWatch: Between the Bells with Georges Yared originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 16 Nov 2007 15:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>AAPLAppleBACBank of AmericaBankOfAmericaCrocsCROXfeaturedGeorges YaredGeorgesYaredGOOGGoogleJ.C. PenneyJ.c.PenneyJCPstocks to buyStocksToBuyStockWatchWal-MartWMTFri, 16 Nov 2007 15:25:00 EST<![CDATA[Morning tea: British portfolio managers' view of U.S. market]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/21/british-portfolio-managers-view-of-us-market/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/21/british-portfolio-managers-view-of-us-market/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/21/british-portfolio-managers-view-of-us-market/#commentsFiled under: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

I had the pleasure this morning of participating on a conference call with five British portfolio managers. Not surprisingly, the discussion, over tea of course, was about the state of the U.S. stock market. Combined, these five gentlemen manage about $16 billion in U.S. stock funds. Once the crumpets were finished and before the second cup of tea was poured, we began the dissection of what's happening in the U.S. It's always good to have perspective from across the "Pond."

To the man, all five believe the U.S. is still a "bit on the cheap side" in terms of valuations. Consistent growth pockets exist, especially in the technology sector. The portfolio managers were enthused about Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), Apple Inc. ( NASDAQ: AAPL) (although Duncan was aggravated because his 6-year-old son dropped his iPod into the bathtub last night), Hewlett Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL). All four of these companies have a high degree of revenue and earnings momentum and of course, strong international sales.

When the subject turned to the U.S. financials, we had some differences. The differences had to do with timing and if there is more bad news to come. The five agreed with me that the big five American banks have a diverse enough stream of revenues and earnings so that any more mortgage issues that come up would be a minor hit to their earnings expectations. The big five are Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM). Three of the five felt that all are in a very secure earnings position, but possibly Washington Mutual could still see some "dodgier times." Two of the five portfolio managers felt that the general earnings expectations for the 3rd and 4th quarters could encounter a slight miss.

Continue reading Morning tea: British portfolio managers' view of U.S. market

Morning tea: British portfolio managers' view of U.S. market originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 21 Aug 2007 15:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>AAPLBACBRK.ACCSCOfeaturedGeorges YaredGeorgesYaredHPQJPMORCLWFCWMTue, 21 Aug 2007 15:55:00 EST<![CDATA[Volatile Markets: Coca-Cola (KO) is the Real Thing]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/16/volatile-markets-coca-cola-ko-is-the-real-thing/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/16/volatile-markets-coca-cola-ko-is-the-real-thing/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/16/volatile-markets-coca-cola-ko-is-the-real-thing/#commentsFiled under: , , , , ,

I don't think I can count how many times I have heard in my career "you can always count on Coca-Cola, no matter what condition the economy is in." It's as true today as ever. With the markets reacting in a volatile manner, globally, Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) is as solid as a rock. This $125 billion market capitalization company is only $2 off of its 52-week high of $56.71. The dividend yield is a solid 2.5% and Coca-Cola has a nice history of raising the payout.

Coca-Cola is one of the world's most recognizable brands. Coca-Cola was a global company before most of us knew what "globalization" meant. It is one of the United States most important exports. Besides the flagship product of Coke, the company also markets consumer favorites like Diet Coke, Fanta and Sprite. Latley, the company has expanded its product offerings to include bottled water as health-conscious consumers have gravitated to this sector of the beverage industry. Coke has successfully diversified its revenue and earnings base by expanding to this valuable part of the industry.

The amazing aspect to the Coca-Cola story is how professional portfolio managers view this company. The revenue and earnings growth rates are only about 10%, but yet Coca-Cola sports a hefty price-earnings multiple of 24 times. Portfolio managers have such confidence in the quarterly performance of Coca-Cola and the absolute consistency of its numbers that many refer to Coca-Cola as "the sleep well stock." This means they do not have to worry quarter-in and quarter-out about Coca-Cola achieving stated expectations: it's virtually automatic.

Continue reading Volatile Markets: Coca-Cola (KO) is the Real Thing

Volatile Markets: Coca-Cola (KO) is the Real Thing originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 16 Aug 2007 12:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>cheap stocksCheapStockscokecoke zeroCokeZerodiet cokeDietCokedivend stocksDivendStocksgeorges yaredGeorgesYaredkonysespritestock marketStockMarketThu, 16 Aug 2007 12:35:00 EST<![CDATA[Volatile Markets: Target (TGT) is the retailer of choice]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/16/volatile-market-target-tgt-is-the-retailer-of-choice/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/16/volatile-market-target-tgt-is-the-retailer-of-choice/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/16/volatile-market-target-tgt-is-the-retailer-of-choice/#commentsFiled under: , , , , , ,

Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) has become the discount retailer of choice as demonstrated by the actual key metric --same store sales. Target has beaten its principal rival Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) 46 of the last 47 months in the head-to-head match up of same store sales.

Bottom line is Target is capturing and maintaining market share gains. The good news is Target's story has more growth prospects in front of it. Target is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota and was established back in 1902. The company was a division of Dayton's, an upscale retailer that had its core presence in the Northwest. Target stores were the after-thought. Target emerged in the 1990's as THE growth vehicle for Dayton's and eventually, the company was re-named Target and the Dayton stores are now part of Macy's. Things do indeed change!!


With a store base of 1,684 spread over 47 states, Target has the room to more than double the base over the next decade. In comparison, Wal-Mart has more than 4,000 stores in the United States alone. Target stores present a more pleasant shopping experience for the customer and have a fresher offering of products. Bottom line is people enjoy shopping at Target and the same store sales numbers completely reflect that fact. The fashions, cosmetics, linens, housewares, sporting goods, etc. are as up-to-date and fashionable even when compared to full-price retail concepts.

Continue reading Volatile Markets: Target (TGT) is the retailer of choice

Volatile Markets: Target (TGT) is the retailer of choice originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 16 Aug 2007 10:57:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>cheap stocksCheapStocksconsumer spendingconsumersConsumerSpendinggeorges yaredGeorgesYarednyseretailretail salesretail stocksRetailSalesRetailStockstgtwmtThu, 16 Aug 2007 10:57:00 EST<![CDATA[Dow 15,000 by end of the year - yeah, we're all so smart!]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/15/dow-15000-by-end-of-the-year-yeah-were-all-so-smart/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/15/dow-15000-by-end-of-the-year-yeah-were-all-so-smart/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/15/dow-15000-by-end-of-the-year-yeah-were-all-so-smart/#commentsFiled under: , , , , ,

Is it possible for the Phoenix to rise out of these over-leveraged, overrated, financial ashes? Can the stock market reverse direction without the Federal Reserve Board taking action and reducing interest rates?

We're all so smart, but at any given moment we might have to don the dunce cap. I am eating humble pie with the rest of you -- worse I'm losing money on a few things (or would be if I sold something) so this is all very real. However, to my fellow long term investors it is all just a blip on the huge screen of investment perspective over time.

Not too long ago I was reading some Cramer stuff regarding how this market would be rising higher through the second half of the year. It used to be that he had plenty of good advice amid his periodic rants, now you have to listen very, very carefully to glean some insight because the ranting and raving have completely dominated and over taken him at times. To the infrequent observer you might think he has lost contol of his senses or even worse. He certainly has no shame.

One of my more knowledgable collegues Georges Yared posted Three reasons the Dow will reach 15,000 by year-end -- and six stocks to buy about a month ago. I do recommend you read the post and there is much to be learned, however, of all the thoughts enumerated the following seems to be the most relevant (and wrong) in today's market.

  • "Mortgage market should stabilize: The US markets were trying to decipher the sub-prime mortgage mess back in April, and here in June they are still trying. The issue has not gone away, but the major banks appear to be handling the problem."

Well, the major banks DO NOT seem to be handling the problem. I think the problem is bigger than many of them. And Georges and I have underestimated the fear that has beset the market which promted me to write: Sunday Funnies: Last one out is a rotten egg! As far as the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching 15,000 by the end of the year, that appears, for now, to be a bit of a stretch.

Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well -- INCLUDING ANY BAD CALLS.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Dow 15,000 by end of the year - yeah, we're all so smart! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 15 Aug 2007 18:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>DJIADow JonesDowJonesfeaturedGeorges YaredGeorgesYaredSheldon LiberSheldonLiberstock market predictionsStockMarketPredictionsWed, 15 Aug 2007 18:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Confusing potential with value]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/13/confusing-potential-with-value/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/13/confusing-potential-with-value/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/13/confusing-potential-with-value/#commentsFiled under: , , , ,

One of my colleagues at BloggingStocks is Georges Yared, a great growth stock picker who is well-known throughout the investing world. But from reading Mr. Yared's posts, I've found several issues with his thinking as of late.

While he does show discipline to buying below his price targets, I think that some of his ideas don't make sense for long-term investors and he neglects to explain the risks involved in the potential investments. In a recent post, Yared spoke about two of his favorite ideas: Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX).

Apple is indisputably a great company with incredible product momentum. In a recent post, I discussed why I believed Apple is quite exposed to a correction but I had no disputes with the strength of the underlying company. On the other hand, I think that Apple was, and remains, 'priced to perfection.' This simply implies that any earnings report or guidance figure which Wall Street interprets negatively will kill the stock. Analysts will be forced to cut earnings per share estimates, thus cutting price targets. To compound the problem, the multiple will be forced to contract due to 'less operating visibility' and 'signs of slowing momentum.' While this certainly isn't a definite or easily predicted event, the risk remains very viable.

Crocs is a whole different story. The creator of overpriced and ugly rubber beach shoes has been on fire in the last six months, during which it has doubled. While Crocs is similar to Apple in one regard -- it's lofty expectations from the street which it needs to exceed to justify its current price -- it's also very different. Unlike Apple, whose products will do well in any season, especially during Christmas, Crocs remains a one-hit-wonder for the summer months. Although Crocs bulls such as Mr. Yared will argue that Crocs is "the next Nike" and that the company's new winter shoes will carry the company through Q407 and Q108, I think this is probably wishful thinking.

Similar to every other fad product, proponents argue that this is not a fad and that this product is different. But as Sir John Templeton once said, "This time is different" are among the most costly four words in market history. One needs to look no further than Heelys Inc. (NASDAQ: HLYS) to see a stock that once wore the 'this time is different' fad hat.

Unfortunately for Crocs shareholders, when this company breaks it will sink ever-so-quickly. When Crocs buyers realize that their hideous, overpriced beach shoe is no longer the popular thing they will all neglect their Crocs just like they've recently done to their sneakers with wheels which were mass produced by Heelys. This problem will be compounded by the fact that Crocs has become increasingly reliant on "Jibbitz" -- plug-like themed inserts for Crocs shoes (no, I'm not joking) -- for growth. No one will want new Micky Mouse Crocs plugs when their deformed rubber shoes are collecting dust just as quickly as their fanny packs.

Story stocks and growth stocks are fun to invest in and even more fun to write about. It's nice to know that you are cashing in on the hottest trends in America. But oftentimes there's the unspoken side story to it all -- you're overpaying for this potential and when these companies cough up you stand to suffer immensely.

Confusing potential with value originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 13 Aug 2007 20:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>AAPLAppleCrocsCROXGeorges YaredGeorgesYaredHeelysHLYSpermabullMon, 13 Aug 2007 20:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Buy on fear today? Bear Stearns (BSC), Countrywide (CFC), IndyMac (IMB), Popular (BPOP), Washington Mutual (WM)]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/10/buy-on-fear-today-bear-stearns-countrywide-indymac-popular/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/10/buy-on-fear-today-bear-stearns-countrywide-indymac-popular/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/10/buy-on-fear-today-bear-stearns-countrywide-indymac-popular/#commentsFiled under: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Plenty of investment guru's have suggested buying on fear and selling when greed reaches its pinnacle. Well I think the fear side is self evident but I'm not hearing about many analysts who are brave enough to buy right now. As a matter of fact I only hear that this would be a very foolish time to invest in the financial sector, in particular, any stocks with sub-prime or "Alt-A" mortgage exposure.

For this reason, contrarian that I am, I thought I would speak out about my recent BAD CALLS, or at least very premature calls, and start tracking them for all to see -- accepting the ribbing, tomato-throwing and blunt comments about the error of my ways.

I own four of the five stocks I will be following for the next year, Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), IndyMac Bancorp Inc. (NYSE: IMB), Popular Inc. (NASDAQ: BPOP), and Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM). I wrote favorable comments on each and in the case of WM, more than once. Needless to say, I am under water on all of them. I do not own Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) but it will make for a fine pace car in the middle of this storm.

Continue reading Buy on fear today? Bear Stearns (BSC), Countrywide (CFC), IndyMac (IMB), Popular (BPOP), Washington Mutual (WM)

Buy on fear today? Bear Stearns (BSC), Countrywide (CFC), IndyMac (IMB), Popular (BPOP), Washington Mutual (WM) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 10 Aug 2007 15:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Amazon.com (AMZN)Amazon.com(amzn)Apple Inc (AAPL)AppleInc(aapl)Bear Stearns Cos (BSC)BearStearnsCos(bsc)Brian WhiteBrianWhiteCountrywide Financial (CFC)CountrywideFinancial(cfc)Doug McIntyreDougMcintyreGeorges YaredGeorgesYaredIndyMac Bancorp (IMB)IndymacBancorp(imb)inthenewsIntuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG)IntuitiveSurgicalInc(isrg)Microsoft (MSFT)Microsoft(msft)Popular (BPOP)Popular(bpop)Sheldon LiberSheldonLiberWashington Mutual (WM)WashingtonMutual(wm)Fri, 10 Aug 2007 15:15:00 EST<![CDATA['You know, I think technical analysis is bull']]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/05/you-know-i-think-technical-analysis-is-bull/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/05/you-know-i-think-technical-analysis-is-bull/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/05/you-know-i-think-technical-analysis-is-bull/#commentsFiled under: , ,

One of the BloggingStocks editors recently instant messaged me and said, "You know, I think technical analysis is bull." I've heard this opinion very frequently, and I've even held this opinion in the past. But from watching stocks for several years I've seen certain price moves that seem to occur again and again. Sure enough, these movements are some of the most fundamental elements of technical analysis; for example, support, resistance, uptrend, etc. I've seen many people who don't know any technical analysis but reference a stock's breakout on its "graph" -- just from watching stocks trade, they have realized this is often a sign of future profits to come.

As I began studying technical analysis more frequently, I learned more about the skill -- moving averages, indicators, oscillators, and so on. Many of these tools, in my opinion, do in fact have predictive value in the stock market. More importantly, these tools allow traders to more effectively and systematically (therefore, less emotionally) manage their money.

All this being said, I think the editor was right in one regard -- I have a lot of trouble believing in patterns (e.g., "Head and Shoulders") because I think that many of these are way too objective when it comes to trading. I also find that they are harder to explain than many other tenets of technical analysis, such as support and resistance.

I've been on all sides of the technical analysis argument -- extraordinarily against, emotionally for, and everything in between. As it stands now, I feel like it's just another tool in the toolbox for a trader and there's no reason not to consider it.

Continue reading 'You know, I think technical analysis is bull'

'You know, I think technical analysis is bull' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 05 Aug 2007 11:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>AmazonAMZNGeorges YaredGeorgesYaredindicatorsmoving averagesMovingAveragesoscillatorspullbackresistancesupportTechnical AnalysisTechnicalAnalysisuptrendSun, 05 Aug 2007 11:10:00 EST<![CDATA[An update on Amazon]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/02/an-update-on-amazon/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/02/an-update-on-amazon/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/02/an-update-on-amazon/#commentsFiled under: ,

Following Amazon's (NASDAQ: AMZN) stellar earnings report, I told BloggingStocks readers that I'd be betting against the stock after this bounce as a result of the shorts being done covering and longs being fully involved in their positions.

Interestingly, Amazon-bull Georges Yared rebutted my post with Amazon: A giant in the making. He made the interesting points that Amazon is a "stalled-story" and that everyone on Wall Street had to load up on the stock to rebalance their portfolios.

While I tend to believe that Amazon, up almost 200% in the last year, isn't too "stalled," I wouldn't disagree that it's a great company. However, as I pointed out in a rebuttal post, our reasons and time frames for holding our opinions on the company varied and, as a result, it made sense that we held different opinions.

As of now, if I held a short position in the stock I'd be putting in a stop to ensure that my gains are protected. With a gain of about 10% in roughly a week, this wasn't a shabby trade. However, I still think the stock will fill the gap and move down another few points.

An update on Amazon originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 02 Aug 2007 10:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>AmazonAMZNGeorges YaredGeorgesYaredThu, 02 Aug 2007 10:35:00 EST<![CDATA[Must be time to pick up a little Starbucks]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/07/15/must-be-time-to-pick-up-a-little-starbucks/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/07/15/must-be-time-to-pick-up-a-little-starbucks/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/07/15/must-be-time-to-pick-up-a-little-starbucks/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

With the strength of this year's equities market, one major company that has not participated in the updraft is Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX). Actually, quite the opposite has happened as the shares have gone from about $36 down to the current price of $26.07. Down ten points has been disappointing, especially in a bull market, but I believe the time has come to re-examine this company and start buying the stock.

Starbucks operates on a fiscal year ending September 30. I estimate that for this year they will earn about $.87 per share, with September 2008 earnings at $1.07 per share. Commensurate revenues look like $9.5 billion this year and $11.4 billion next year. With the market capitalization at $19.3 billion, Starbucks is trading at less than two times next year's revenues. That's one buy signal, as growth companies tend to sell from three to five times forward revenues.

I recommended Starbucks last October to the members of my web site to buy at $29, and then I recommended a sell at $39 in December because the stock price got ahead of itself. I thought the shares could be repurchased in the low $30s sometime in the first half of this year. The stock is well-below that number to the mid $20s. What has happened to Starbucks is not too atypical of excellent long-term growth companies: they hit a small wall or detour along the way. Starbucks has been hampered by just okay same-store sales and rising dairy prices. Although it did not miss the March quarter expectations, it did not provide any upside to that quarter either. The froth came off the stock. The June quarter will more than likely come right in-line with consensus expectations of $2.4 billion of revenues and $.21 in earnings per share.

Continue reading Must be time to pick up a little Starbucks

Must be time to pick up a little Starbucks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 15 Jul 2007 09:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Georges YaredGeorgesYaredgrowth challengeslong-term growthSBUXStarbucksYared Investment ResearchSun, 15 Jul 2007 09:10:00 EST<![CDATA[The big six U.S. banks: Is it time to buy?]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/07/14/the-big-six-u-s-banks-is-it-time-to-buy/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/07/14/the-big-six-u-s-banks-is-it-time-to-buy/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/07/14/the-big-six-u-s-banks-is-it-time-to-buy/#commentsFiled under: , , , , , , ,

The Dow Jones is up over 11% for the year so far and the euphoria on Wall Street has certainly hit Main Street. The one sector that has not participated in this rally is major U.S., large-cap banks. The stock performance of the major six banks has been as low as down 10% to flat -- in other words lousy. The six major banks are Citigroup (NYSE: C), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Wachovia (NYSE: WB) and Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) and JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM). So is time to start nibbling away at these stocks?

The central issue is the state of the subprime mortgage market. All of these banks are major mortgage players in the United States, from coast to coast. As the earnings season was approaching with first quarter results, many thought the answers would be evident and that the issue would be a memory. All six reported very good, solid first quarter results, and reserve requirements were raised for the year to absorb defaulted mortgages. Washington Mutual explained that they were aggressively working with the subprime customers to refinance their loans before the problems got worse. Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Wachovia followed suit.

The earnings were strong for the first quarter and guidance for the calender year 2007 stayed the same, no lowering of forward expectations. Dividends are absolutely solid in terms of earnings/dividend coverage, and the yields are mouth-watering. The yields on the big six range from 3.2% to 5.2%.

The stocks have been flat to down as the mortgage issue is not yet totally resolved. The housing market is still a troubling aspect of the economy, with no real relief in sight until at least 2008. That factor has kept these stocks depressed. But remember, you want to buy when no one else is.

Continue reading The big six U.S. banks: Is it time to buy?

The big six U.S. banks: Is it time to buy? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 14 Jul 2007 09:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>BACbad debtsBank of Americabig six banksCitigroupdividend yieldsdividendsGeorges YaredGeorgesYaredhousing marketJP Morgan ChaseJPMJpMorganChaselarge-cap banksLarge-capBanksmajor mortgage playersMajorMortgagePlayersmortgage lendersmortgage underwritingMortgageUnderwritingrestructuringsubprime lendingWachoviaWBWells FargoWFCYared Investment ResearchSat, 14 Jul 2007 09:40:00 EST<![CDATA[Oracle Q4 2007 earnings preview: A bargain or a sucker's bet?]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/20/oracle-q4-2007-earnings-preview-a-bargain-or-a-suckers-bet/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/20/oracle-q4-2007-earnings-preview-a-bargain-or-a-suckers-bet/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/20/oracle-q4-2007-earnings-preview-a-bargain-or-a-suckers-bet/#commentsFiled under: ,

Since its upside surprise when it reported last quarter, enterprise software giant Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) has continued with its philosophy of growth through acquisition by acquiring LODESTAR Corp., which supplies software solutions to utilities, as well as product lifecycle management leader Agile Software Corp. (NASDAQ: AGIL). And the share price has been trending upward the past three months.

But it hasn't all been peaches and cream. Billionaire George Soros recently shifted his focus away from Oracle and some other tech stocks in favor of Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT). BloggingStocks contributor Georges Yared thinks Oracle's glory days, in terms of growth, may be behind it, and even that it may be a stock for suckers.

Oracle's rivalry with Germany-based SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) continues, of course, not only in the courtroom -- Oracle recently added copyright infringement to its theft charges against SAP -- but also into small and medium-sized companies, where some early indicators suggest Oracle may have the edge. Oddly enough, there has been speculation that Oracle may try to acquire SAP, unlikely though that may be, after it was rumored that Oracle has been purchasing SAP stock.

But Oracle remains part of the Fortune 500, and BloggingStocks contributor Brent Archer thinks the stock might be a bargain. One analyst upgraded Oracle just last week. According to Thomson Financial, Wall Street consensus rates ORCL a buy (12 strong buy, 11 buy, 12 hold). When Oracle reports earnings on June 26, analysts expect earnings per share for this quarter to come in at 35 cents, compared to 25 cents actual from last quarter, and 25 cents a year ago. Its market cap is $96.8 billion, and its P/E ratio is 18.95 (the industry average is 23.49). The consensus price target is $21.25; the 52-week low was $13.77 in July of 2006 and $19.95 last week. It closed Tuesday at $19.88.

Oracle Q4 2007 earnings preview: A bargain or a sucker's bet? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 20 Jun 2007 08:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>acquisitionsAgileAgile SoftwareBrent Archercopyright infringementdatabasesearnings reportsFortune 500George SorosGeorges YaredGeorgesYaredlarry ellisonLarryEllisonLodestarMicrosoftMSFTOracleORCLQ4 2007quarterly reportsSAPsoftwaresoftware developerstakeover rumorsWed, 20 Jun 2007 08:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Is Apple a short candidate?]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/09/is-apple-a-short-candidate/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/09/is-apple-a-short-candidate/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/09/is-apple-a-short-candidate/#commentsFiled under: ,

My friend and colleague Georges Yared has been unabashedly bullish on shares of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), and his buy call has looked nothing short of brilliant for a long time:

Continue reading Is Apple a short candidate?

Is Apple a short candidate? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 09 Jun 2007 11:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>AAPLAppleContrarian InvestmentDavid DremanGeorges YaredGeorgesYarediPhoneJohn DvorakShort sellingShortSellingSat, 09 Jun 2007 11:10:00 EST<![CDATA[Top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years: Wind River Systems]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/03/top-25-stocks-for-the-next-25-years-wind-river-systems/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/03/top-25-stocks-for-the-next-25-years-wind-river-systems/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/03/top-25-stocks-for-the-next-25-years-wind-river-systems/#commentsFiled under: , ,

The next company in my ongoing series of the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years is Wind River Systems (NASDAQ: WIND). Wind river is headquartered in Alameda, California, and has a market capitalization of $925 million. Wind River Systems is a technology company that virtually touches our daily lives, and yet 99% of us have no clue what Wind River does or how it affects us!

Wind River offers a suite of technical products, primarily software based, that allow software developers and electrical engineers to laser-beam focus the functionality of a semi-conductor chip. Wind's tools are employed to optimize the functionality and the speed of a device. So, in English what does all this mean? Well, for example,the air-bags in an automobile serve a singular, powerful function -- deploying in the event of an accident. Wind River Systems product suite for the automotive industry facilitates the semi-conductor chip that governs the air-bag's "brain center." Does the force or the angle of the impact merit deployment of the air-bag? The decision by the embedded chip is figured out in miliseconds. Wind River's software developed for the chip enables that specific functionality in an instant. It's a single purpose, real-time operating system designed specifically for that application. There, easy right?

Wind River sells its suite of products to the avionics industry, automotive, digital imaging manufacturers, internet router makers, medical device companies, mobile and handset makers. Wind River has established strategic relationships and partnerships with IBM, Intel, Texas Instruments, Motorola, Toshiba MIPS, and many more. Wind's suite of software development, debugging, and testing products are the industry standard for reliability and accuracy. Wind River sells its products worldwide, employing a direct sales and technical force. The complexity of customer projects requires Wind River to be available for training and complex technical support.

Continue reading Top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years: Wind River Systems

Top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years: Wind River Systems originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 03 Jun 2007 16:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>air-bagsanti-lock brakesdebuggingGeorges YaredGeorgesYaredIBMIntelmaintenance agreementsMotorolaroyalty arrangementsRoyaltyArrangementssoftware developmentSoftwareDevelopmentTexas Instrumentstop 25 stocksToshiba MIPSWINDWind RiverWind River SystemsWindRiverSystemsYared Investment ResearchSun, 03 Jun 2007 16:10:00 EST<![CDATA[Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years -- Dick's Sporting Goods]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/05/19/top-25-stocks-for-the-next-25-years-dicks-sporting-goods/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/05/19/top-25-stocks-for-the-next-25-years-dicks-sporting-goods/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/05/19/top-25-stocks-for-the-next-25-years-dicks-sporting-goods/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

The ninth name in my series of the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years is Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS). Dick's is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and was actually established in 1948. The original concept was revamped and expanded during the past four years, and the company is on a high-growth trajectory. Dick's will be the most dominating purveyor of sporting goods and apparel in the United States.

Dick's stock closed at $53.40 on Friday and has a market capitalization of $2.8 billion. Dick's currently operates 294 stores, most in the eastern United States. The estimated revenue base for the fiscal year ending January 2008 is $3.8 billion, and for earnings per share I am estimating at $2.40. My January 2009 revenue and earnings per share estimates call for $4.5 billion and $2.95.

Dick's is taking advantage of a very fractured market. The preponderance of sporting goods sales occur in the big box retailers like Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) or Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). It's simply a "small department" for these huge general retailers. The other big competitors have been mom-and-pop stores and a few other larger concepts that have struggled mightily. Dick's is both the growth engine and the consolidator in the sporting goods space. The company has room to grow to 1,100-1,200 stores over the next decade. In 2005, Dick's acquired popular Midwestern retailer Galyan's and with it, the terrific locations.

Sporting goods that Dick's offers range from the usual baseball, football, basketball, and hockey equipment and apparel to the eclectic tastes in golf, fishing, hunting, and more. Dick's is attuned to the electronic world and offers the best line of navigational equipment for boaters and fishermen. What Dick's offers to the sportsman is total selection and information by extremely well-trained salespeople.

Continue reading Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years -- Dick's Sporting Goods

Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years -- Dick's Sporting Goods originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 19 May 2007 14:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>big box retailerscustomer loyaltyDick'sDick's Sporting GoodsDick'sSportingGoodsDKSGalyan'sGeorges YaredGeorgesYaredsporting goodsSportingGoodsstock picksStockPicksTargetteam sponsorshipTGTWal-MartWMTYared Investment ResearchSat, 19 May 2007 14:40:00 EST<![CDATA[Dow 13,000/Google debate - some facts!]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/20/dow-13-000-google-debate-some-facts/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/20/dow-13-000-google-debate-some-facts/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/20/dow-13-000-google-debate-some-facts/#commentsFiled under: , , , , , , , , ,

Earlier today Douglas McIntyre posted Dow 13,000? -- Stocks to put in the dumpster. Then Georges Yared posted Rebuttal to Dow 13,000: Stocks for the dumpster which got me thinking about what the numbers say. What are the fundamentals? Do they matter? Georges is on record supporting Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) growth stories and Doug took them both down a notch today.

Before I even begin I must share that among my colleagues, I hold these two in the highest esteem. They offer market and stock opinions that are very worth considering and often give me ideas. Georges disagrees with Doug about Google being overpriced and the market has tended to agree with him. I think Doug however, is simply reminding investors that sometimes when such euphoria takes hold it might be worth taking pause. I often like to make my stock decisions on the week end when the market is closed for exactly this reason.

Since I am a value investor I would have a natural tendency to lean toward Doug's slant on the subject but the interesting thing to me is that nothing Georges has said is inaccurate. But what do the numbers tell us, if anything about these ideas.

Continue reading Dow 13,000/Google debate - some facts!

Dow 13,000/Google debate - some facts! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 20 Apr 2007 18:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Apple Inc (AAPL)AppleInc(aapl)Chasing ValueChasingValueDoug McIntyreDougMcintyreGeorges YaredGeorgesYaredGoogle (GOOG)Google(goog)Serious MoneySeriousMoneySheldon LiberSheldonLiberFri, 20 Apr 2007 18:40:00 EST<![CDATA[General Motors vs. Toyota: Battle of the Brands]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/08/general-motors-vs-toyota-battle-of-the-brands/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/08/general-motors-vs-toyota-battle-of-the-brands/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/08/general-motors-vs-toyota-battle-of-the-brands/#commentsFiled under: , , , , ,

This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and watch out for more Battle of the Brands posts.

The sad part about this subject is watching these two companies going in almost opposite directions -- at least for now. General Motors General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) has a current market capitalization of $18 billion versus the behemoth Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) with a massive market capitalization of $236 billion, over 13 times bigger than GM. Yet on the surface one would never guess these numbers as their revenues are fairly close in comparison: GM for 2007, estimates revenues of $173 billion, and Toyota's at $200 billion.

It's what's underneath the hood that distinguishes these companies.

Toyota has just come off a five-year period of growth in its per-share earnings at 26% per year, an astounding accomplishment for such a large company. General Motors has experienced flat to negative earnings per share growth over the same five-year period. Toyota is opening new plants, both in Japan and the U.S., to handle demand, while General Motors is closing plants to save costs and resources.

Toyota has set itself apart as the undisputed world leader with the hybrid auto: half combustible engine, half battery powered. The hybrids are still at a price premium to comparable standard combustible, gasoline-powered models, but they will close that gap over the next two or three years. The hybrids come in luxurious lines of the Camry, the Highlander SUV, and the Lexus RX series, as well as the economical Prius model. GM has yet to enter the hybrid field in a serious way.

Continue reading General Motors vs. Toyota: Battle of the Brands

General Motors vs. Toyota: Battle of the Brands originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 08 Apr 2007 15:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>auto makersBattle of the BrandsBattleOfTheBrandsCamrycustomer loyaltyCustomerLoyaltyGeneral MotorsGeneralMotorsGeorges YaredGeorgesYaredGMHighlanderhybridsLexusSUVsTMToyotaYared Investment ResearchSun, 08 Apr 2007 15:10:00 EST<![CDATA[Starbucks vs. Dunkin' Donuts: The Story of Ralph and Serge]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/07/starbucks-vs-dunkin-donuts-the-story-of-ralph-and-serge/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/07/starbucks-vs-dunkin-donuts-the-story-of-ralph-and-serge/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/07/starbucks-vs-dunkin-donuts-the-story-of-ralph-and-serge/#commentsFiled under: , , , ,

This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and watch out for more Battle of the Brands posts.

I took my son to his spring-break baseball camp this morning in Lakeland, Florida. After dropping him off I drove past a Dunkin' Donuts: Hey I worked out yesterday -- I'm going in. I had a nice conversation with the clerk, Ralph. Ralph, I ask, do your customers ask you for a choice of coffee flavors? Ah, no, he says, just small, medium and large. Wanna a donut, they're fresh? Sure, I ask for a chocolate glazed, please, with a medium coffee. Do you sell CDs or popular, theme-oriented books here? Huh? No, he says, just the donuts and three coffees: small, medium, or large. The guy in line behind me urged me to hurry up -- he was hungry. I moved out of the way as he ordered four different donuts. Being a social kind of guy, I asked him if he was going to a meeting and bringing the goodies? No, he says, these are for me, my breakfast. OK, I got that.

Dunkin' Donuts and Starbucks: Milk and sugar vs. non-fat lattes. The success of the two is enviable, yet their customer base is quite different. Dunkin' Donuts serves, in general, millions of blue-collar workers with scrumptious, made-that-morning donuts in several varieties. The coffee is actually quite good, but Dunkin' Donuts is not known for its ambiance or as a place to sit and work on your laptop. It's buy the donuts, thank you, and move on. The donuts are delicious and addictive. My guy Ralph even suggested they need a rehab facility for Dunkin' Donut addicts. He explained that he has about 350 regular customers. He defined regulars as "people that are in at least four or five times per week, every week. I even know their vacation schedules!" Now, that's loyalty.

Continue reading Starbucks vs. Dunkin' Donuts: The Story of Ralph and Serge

Starbucks vs. Dunkin' Donuts: The Story of Ralph and Serge originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 07 Apr 2007 08:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Battle of the BrandsBattleOfTheBrandscoffeeDe'longhiDunkin' DonutsGeorges YaredGeorgesYaredSBUXStarbucksTony BennettTonyBennettSat, 07 Apr 2007 08:10:00 EST<![CDATA[Behemoth vs. Rising Titan: Wal-Mart and Target]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/06/behemoth-vs-rising-titan-wal-mart-and-target/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/06/behemoth-vs-rising-titan-wal-mart-and-target/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/06/behemoth-vs-rising-titan-wal-mart-and-target/#commentsFiled under: , , , , , ,

This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and watch out for more Battle of the Brands posts.

America use to have the battle of Sears vs. Kmart back in the 1970s and 1980s. Well, both are now combined into one entity named Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD) which, frankly, is still struggling for its identity. The new king of the hill from a revenue perspective is Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT). No question, with revenues this fiscal year ending January 31, 2008, expected to be $380 billion, Wal-Mart is the behemoth. The largest retailer in the world, period. But I wouldn't touch the stock. The comment most attributed to Wal-Mart is "it's tired." The stores look worn and the shopping experience arises more out of necessity than desire. Also, with a $200+ billion market capitalization, moving the needle even just 10% is quite challenging.

Why bother with a company that will have a very difficult time growing its revenue and earnings base? Why bother with a company that is being attacked, successfully, on both sides of its key businesses: the discount retailer and the warehouse stores? Why bother with a concept that has saturated its market with more than 3,200 stores in place? The only sure-fire way to grow the earnings base is through same-store-sales monthly increases, and yet, Wal-Mart is struggling in this capacity. The answer is not more stores, and pricing increases go against the Wal-Mart credo of everyday low prices. Sure, shareholders of the past 30 years have been exceptionally rewarded and Wal-Mart is the quintessential American brand, but there is a far better and exciting story for shareholders going forward. That story is the rising titan, Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT).

Continue reading Behemoth vs. Rising Titan: Wal-Mart and Target

Behemoth vs. Rising Titan: Wal-Mart and Target originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 06 Apr 2007 15:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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