The General Motors' board is starting its two-day meeting today, and it is believed that the company is going to decide what will happen to the German Opel automobile unit. There are other topics to be discussed, including a new marketing campaign and preparation for a public offering of stock so the automaker can repay the U.S. taxpayers.

Nevertheless, the major news will be the company's decision about Opel -- what should General Motors do? Is it smart for the company to give up a portion of its market share in Europe in order to stabilize American sales? Reuters examined several scenarios General Motors might face.

Under the radar: Some trends are obvious enough and visible to all investors. Others are more-subtle, but are just as potent, and these often slip 'under the radar.'

Case in point: German business confidence, which climbed to a nine-month high ---- suggesting Germany's economy is poised to rebound.

According to the Ifo Institute index of business sentiment, sentiment in Germany increased to 87.3 in July from 85.9 in June. It was the index's highest reading since October 2008, or when the acute phase of the global financial crisis started.

Under the radar: Some trends are obvious enough and visible to all investors. Others are more-subtle, but are just as potent, and these often slip 'under the radar.'

Case in point: German manufacturing orders, which jumped the most in almost two years in May -- rising 4.4%, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday. That's the indicator's largest increase since June 2007, and nine times the Bloomberg News consensus estimate.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says a data point out of Germany gives him cause for hope.

I have seen the future, and it is German manufacturing orders! We are always looking for totems when we are teetering on the second dip, and a number that came out today from Germany showing a 4.4% increase in May manufacturing orders -- the best in two years -- ignited the European markets and should do the same for ours.

It's been no secret that our economy's doing nothing while the Chinese economy does all the heavy lifting. But what happens if Europe, which is supposed to be so, so sick, gets better? I don't know a soul who believes that Europe isn't worse than the U.S., with their banks being in far worse shape and their governments showing no signs of being worried about anything but Weimar.

Following the instructions of President John F. Kennedy, "I appreciate candor almost as much as I appreciate good news," we're moving forward with candor, however unpleasant.

Investors take heed: the U.S. recession most likely just got longer.

The European Union, led by Germany, has rejected Eastern Europe's pleas for an aid package of about $228 billion, citing budget concerns in their own Western European countries, Bloomberg News reported Sunday.

The E.U.'s failure to provide aid and fiscal stimulus to Hungary, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Latvia and Poland will hurt both the U.S. and global economies.

I am the Global Editor at MoneyShow.com and each week I interview an investing expert. This week, I spoke with Heiko Böhmer, editor of Privatfinanz-Letter, who says it's not yet time to return to the German stock markets.

Q. The German economy entered a recession in the third quarter of 2008. Recent projections estimate that it will shrink by 2.25% this year, its worst performance since World War II. With that in mind, which, if any, sectors do you see actually growing in 2009?

A. It's not easy to find growing sectors in this tough economic environment. But I think that utilities and basic goods will show some growth this year. On the other hand, it will be very tough for the most important German sectors-cars and car suppliers.

The impossible has happened. The Chicago Cubs won the National League pennant?

No, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet is now in accommodation mode.

Trichet, a legendary inflation hawk, presided over the European Central Bank as it cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 2% Thursday.

It was fourth consecutive monthly interest rate cut for the ECB and it matches the record low interest rate reached during the 2003-2005 period. However, Trichet, at the ECB's regular post-meeting news conference, indicated monetary policy makers will avoid a cut in interest rates at its next meeting in February, Bloomberg News reported Thursday.

Economist David H. Wang said there's a bright side and a downside to the ECB's most-recent action, and he isn't so sure the bank is done cutting rates, even with a prospective February pause.

Amid the global recession there has been one sign of economic growth, albeit retroactive growth.

China has revised its estimate for 2007 GDP growth to 13% from the previously-released 11.9%, the Associated Press reports. With the revision China's 2007 GDP totaled $3.5 trillion, passing Germany's $3.3 trillion for third place, globally. (The United States is first, followed by Japan. And I should note that Germany is part of the European Union, and if the E.U. were ranked collectively, it would be the largest economy in the world, followed by the United States, Japan, then China.)

Economist David H. Wang, a China expert, said it's not unusual to see a large change in an emerging market nation's GDP estimate given the frenetic nature of a developing economy's expansion.

"Developing markets are characterized by overbuilding, excesses, inflation, and isolated shortages, and this has been the case in China. We know that growth had been strong up until the financial crisis. My reading now is that China's GDP is currently growing at a 7-8.5% annualized rate," Wang said. "Like the rest of the world, there's been a pronounced slowdown in China, but that doesn't blot out the impressive growth registered from 2003 to 2007."

Banks around the world have been raising capital in the last few months. If the market is efficient, then the cost of capital for these banks should tell us something about how risky they are. Based on the relative cost of capital of banks in the U.S. compared to those in France, Germany and Switzerland, the world's riskiest banks are right here in the good old USA. The safest banks? French ones.

How so? Here is the rough (due to different capital structures) after-tax cost of capital for the banks in different countries:

• U.S.: Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is paying a 17% interest rate and Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) pays almost 17%
• UK: Barclays pays 16%; HBOS, Lloyds TSB; and Royal Bank of Scotland pay about 12%
• Germany: Commerzbank pays 10%
• Switzerland: UBS's interest rate is relative bargain of 9.9%
• France: BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, and four others pay the lowest rate -- 5% -- for their capital

Maybe there's some sort of trading opportunity to short U.S banks and go long French ones. C'est la vie!

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College. His eighth book, You Can't Order Change: Lessons From Jim McNerney's Turnaround at Boeing, will be published by Portfolio on December 26, 2008. He has no financial interest in Goldman or Morgan Stanley securities.

From the 'what goes around comes around' department: publishers in Germany are reporting that interest in the ideas of Karl Marx is surging.

Small academic publisher the Karl-Dietz Verlag, has sold 1,500 copies of Marx's Das Kapital, including 200 in September alone. Other book stores have seen sales of the classic and deadly dull tome skyrocket by 300%. I realize that these figures are not indicative of a best-seller in the order of the Da Vinci Code, but they are interesting nonetheless.

The current economic meltdown has up-ended people's notions of capitalism. Conservatives have derided the $700 billion rescue of Wall Street as socialism. In many ways, they are right. The government is intervening in the market and choosing winners and losers, something that was never supposed to happen under the free market.

Though I have not seen any figures, I bet that interest in Marx is probably increasing in the United States as well. This may shock many investor,s but many people have grown increasingly anxious every time they view their 401 (k). The American dream has turned into a nightmare for many people struggling to pay their bills and facing foreclosure.

For some people, Marx seems to offer people the answers they are seeking. His ideas have been discredited by decades of often-brutal history of countries that lived under Communism. It's no accident that the United States won the Cold War.

I've always imagined that one of the great joys of belonging to a Socialist group would be not worrying about the well-nigh incomprehensible fluctuations of the stock market. While other people may lose sleep over the screaming highs and soul-crushing lows of the capitalist economies, hard-core socialists just have to worry about plebian things like political purity, the potato harvest, and whether or not the shops currently have razor blades in stock.

With that in mind, I feel somewhat sorry for the Provisional Irish Republican Army. While they rejected the Communist tendencies of the "Official" IRA in the 1960's, they still self-identified as a "non-Marxist Democratic Socialist" organization. However, when they signed a ceasefire in 1997, they rebelled against this identity and invested their funds in the property market and, subsequently, in high-high-dividend deposit accounts in the U.S. According to some reports, Wall Street's recent meltdown may have cost the former terrorist group as much as $274 million.

Needless to say, IRA financial advisors are currently "in a state of panic," as they are watching their funding (and potential political power) evaporate. There is no word yet on whether or not Baader-Meinhof, Shining Path, or Black September were invested in the market!

Gosh. Golly. Gee Whiz.

That was the reaction Monday of traders and economists to the European Union's coordinated decision to invest a staggering $2.4 trillion in interbank loan guarantees and bank recapitalizations, ft.com reported, to end the global financial crisis.

(Of course, 'gosh, golly' etc. were not exactly the reactions of traders and economists -- this is a family-appropriate financial blog -- but you get the point.)

Europe's decision sparked a global rally in stocks. The Dow closed up 936.42 points -- the largest one-day point gain in its history -- to 9,387.61.

Europe takes the lead

At minimum, Europe is saying that its economic stake in the current global financial system is so large that it's willing to err on the side of over-committing public funds, economist Peter Dawson said.

"Europe's response is very large, unexpected, and it could prove to be the pivotal move in this crisis," Dawson said. "Europe appears to be saying, 'well the United States is doing what it can do, given its political constraints' now let's do what our political culture allows. Basically, Europe is saying 'the storm of fear starts to lose its strength here.' "

The measures were both sweeping and unprecedented in size and scope, Dawson said. Germany said it offered about $680 billion in loan guarantees and will invest $108 billion in its banking system, ft.com reported. France said it would provide up to $435 billion in loan guarantees and invest as much as $52 billion. The United Kingdom has committed about $70 billion for investment in key banks, along with a guarantee for banks deposits and interbank lending. The Netherlands, Spain, and other nations announced similar plans.

One of the world's leading investors is expressing cautious optimism - - underscoring cautious - - regarding the fate of the global financial system.

Billionaire investor George Soros said Monday a pledge by European leaders to guarantee new bank financing is "a positive step" may help stabilize global financial markets, Bloomberg News reported.

Soros: We're finally getting the leadership we need

"In the last 72 hours, I think the European governments got religion and realized that this is a serious problem,'' Soros said at a press conference in Washington, Bloomberg News reported. "People are looking for some leadership and finally they are getting it." Soros is chairman of the $20 billion Fund Management LLC.

Along with actions by the major central banks to increase the supply of dollars in the global money supply, Europe's major industrialized nations announced fiscal policies to back bank-to-bank loans and recapitalize banks, The New York Times reported Monday. Britain said it will invest $73 billion in its banks, Germany is investing up to 500 billion euros or about $680 billion, and France will create an agency to offer state guarantees for banks and to channel money to them.

Further, Soros underscored that the United States government must recapitalize solvent banks, ft.com reported Monday. The U.S. said it intends to do that, but has not yet released details of its plan. Soros would like the U.S. government's recapitalization to take the form of preferred shares, which would dilute existing shareholders, but with private capital given the right to subscribe on the same terms, if private investors are able to put up more money, ft.com reported.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is leading an unprecedented effort by major central banks to push dollars into the global financial system, the Fed announced Monday, backstopping government fiscal policies to restore confidence,

The European Central Bank, Bank of England, and the Swiss Central Bank, will offer unlimited dollar fund auctions with maturities of seven days, 28 days, and 84 days at a fixed interest rate. The Bank of Japan may offer similar measures, the Fed said.

The Fed added that "central banks will continue to work together and are prepared to take whatever measures are necessary to provide sufficient liquidity in short-term funding markets."

Dollar falls on increased currency supply

The dollar fell early Monday against the world's other major currencies on the news, as traders adjusted positions to the increased supply of dollars. The dollar fell one half cent to $1.3615 versus the euro, 1.5 cents to $1.7286 versus the British pound and one-third yen to 100.37 versus Japan's yen.

Economist Richard Felson told BloggingStocks Monday the major central banks' effort is clear: keep financial markets adequately supplied with dollars amid a world that's hoarding dollars.

"It's one of the paradoxes of this current global financial crisis that despite the fact that the crisis originated in the United States, banks and financial institutions around the world are hoarding dollars. The reason is the dollar is still the world's reserve currency and investors are engaging in a flight to safety. The consequence has been a credit crunch," Felson said. "The central banks' policy should help alleviate that crunch by ensuring that there's adequate dollar liquidity. It's the correct move."

Think it's hard for the U.S. Congress to agree on a policy?

Try getting a policy passed by the European Union.

Strictly speaking, of course, the European Parliament (both chambers), not the EU, is akin to the Congress, but the 27-nation EU is proving to be almost as unwieldy as the EP.

The EU's decision to increase the guarantee on bank deposits to 50,000 euros or about $68,000 Tuesday represented the first common, or unified approach to the financial crisis, The New York Times reported Tuesday, despite incontrovertible data indicating that the credit crunch is restricting lending, both short- and long-term, and is slowing commerce.

EU stance: 'Every nation for himself'

Economist Richard Felson told BloggingStocks Tuesday the EU's lack of unified action highlights the limitations of Europe's supranational political system. "For those European nations using the euro, these nations are unified by a common central bank. But fiscal policy, in terms of a treasury department, remains at the nation-state level. That makes it much harder to coordinate a bank rescue, for example," Felson said.

That's the main reason the EU hasn't passed a rescue package similar in scope to the U.S. Congress', Felson said. "Europe's economy is just as large as the U.S.'s and it's likely to experience distressed/bad debt aftereffects almost as large as those in America. It requires a unified response, but thus far it's been 'every nation for himself.' It's very disappointing, from a governance standpoint."