Under the radar: Some trends are obvious enough and visible to all investors. Others are more-subtle, but are just as potent, and these often slip 'under the radar.'

Case in point: One wonders how this research slipped under the radar, but it to-date hasn't received a great deal of attention from the popular press -- Goldman Sachs now expects the global economy to expand 4.4% in 2010, and 4.5% in 2011, as the world recovers from the financial crisis, Bloomberg News reported.

That contrasts with the International Monetary Fund's most recent forecast for 3.1% growth in 2010, following a -1.1% contraction in 2008.

He discovered global warming; he created the Internet; and his wife shielded my young ears from curse words when I was growing up. Now Al Gore has decided it is time to single-handedly rescue the automotive world. Okay, not really, but Al Gore is a major backer of California-based Fisker Automotive, which has just secured a $529 million government loan to build a hybrid sports car in Finland.

Couple of problems here, but let's start with the idea of the car. I am so glad that Fisker is going to help the earth. I mean, who doesn't want to conserve fuel and reduce air pollution while cruising around in their four-door sports car? I mean, who doesn't have an extra $89,000 lying around to spend on transportation? Seriously, it is now at the point that only celebrities can afford a hybrid car that doesn't look like it was built of Lego.

Need another 'green shoot' to bolster your investment sentiment? Try this one: confidence in the global economy surged to a 22-month high in August on signs the worst global recession since the end of World War II is nearing an end.

The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index soared to 58.12 this month from 39.13 in July. The survey sampled more than 2,300 Bloomberg users August 3-7.

At times, during this protracted global recession, it seems as if the entire world depended on home equity loan-fueled U.S. consumption to maintain GDP growth.

De-coupling -- the notion that the emerging market economies of China, India, Brazil and Russia were independent of the developed world, from a GDP growth standpoint, and were self-sustaining -- has been quickly dispelled. "De-coupling" has about as much validity as another ruse that made the rounds in the last boom (as it does in all expansions): the fallacy of "this time it's different" – the notion that some economic phenomenon can continue indefinitely. During the last expansion there was a widely-held view that housing prices, despite numerous metrics that showed that housing prices had hit bubble levels, could rise at double-digit rates annually, for a decade or more.

Iran's flawed democracy is still better than most of the political systems among other countries in the region. For the past few decades the morality police, prodded by religious literalism, have mandated women to cover themselves when they are out in public. This same religious literalism has impeded the potential of a country that has a large population, in a key geographic region, with oil and other natural resources.

Iran is in the midst of a presidential election that has stimulated much heated debate among the population about the failures of the current government in economic and political terms, and that has created a feeling of isolation. The isolation is more than a feeling, and it has limited the growth of the nation to something far less than its capabilities.

The players at the G-20 summit have opened the curtain on Act 1.

First we have Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso. He holds the position that a strong stimulus program is the only means to pull Europe and the world out of the current crisis. He cited Japan's experience in the 1990s when Japan used a strong stimulus as a way to stimulate growth. He also cited Japan's current stimulus package, which amounts to $720 billion, and he even said that Japan would discuss further stimulus if the need arises.

Standing in opposition is German Chancellor Angela Merkel. She is firmly opposed to more stimulus and demands to know why it is needed. She believes that excessive public spending will not assure a vital recovery.

The plight of the US and global economy, and how it touches everyone, has most people believing we are in for a long drawn out period of sluggish growth, and that a lot of pain is still to come. For most companies and individuals this means they can not obtain enough liquidity, reduce debt or increase their net cash positions fast enough.

Japan, which boasts the second-largest economy in the world, is facing exceptionally large recessionary pressures as well, as its gross domestic product recoiled at a year-over-year rate of 12.7% in the fourth quarter of 2008.

This marked the nation's worst GDP number since the first quarter of 1974, when the oil crisis helped contribute to a 13.1% collapse. The dismal figure, worse than anything posted (yet) by the U.S. or struggling European nations, also exposes Japan as among the hardest hit by a sweeping global recession. (Well, at least misery loves company). Some are speculating that the crisis could prompt Japanese officials to write up another stimulus package, which would join two packages, together worth 50 trillion yen ($545 billion), that were announced late last year.

When they had the capacity to do so, they refused to increase production, preferring instead to reap ever higher revenue - - essentially extracting as much money for energy as possible out of the U.S. and global economies.

The result: Oil Shock III - - aided by the leverage financing boom - - which sapped disposable income, helping trigger the current U.S. and global recessions.

OPEC miscalculated and simultaneously choked-off oil demand - - and, once again, 'killed the goose that lays the golden egg.'

Now global oil demand is falling - - including real consumption declines in the United States, and, incredibly, flat demand in emerging markets. And the price of oil? Despite a record $100 plunge in one year, it continues to fall - - currently trading around $41 per barrel.

Energy market professionals say that when assessing the oil market today, it's important to focus on one factor, demand.

Crude's rally from the low $30-range to above $50 per barrel in less than a month had visions of $60 oil dancing in the heads of oil bulls, but it was a rally that nevertheless flew in the face of demand fundamentals.

Declining demand is the key

Those fundamentals show, among other consumptions stats, real declines in both oil and gasoline consumption in the United States, and a decline in the growth of oil consumption in China -- two major energy markets, Energy Trader Jim Dietz said.

The consequence? Inventories are rising worldwide, he said. One example: oil inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, where fuel for NYMEX traded contracts is stored, has increased to 32.4 million barrels, the highest level since 2004. Nations and other oil producers are also increasing their storage of oil at sea in supertankers, Dietz added.

The currency of our realm, the US Dollar, has been losing value for many years, but lately the results of this sad state of affairs have become increasingly more evident. Concerns are mounting on a global basis not just in the United States. The euro, once pegged at a buck, is now trading at $1.55, while gold has passed $1,000 and oil has continued its charge, breaking through the $110 per barrel mark.

While a good deal of this problem is home grown, the pain is being felt all around the world. We have read many stories about how the American economy is a smaller part of the global economy and becoming somewhat detached. This is nonsense. What has happened is that the global economy has become infinitely more integrated and like any integrated structure (the architect speaking), what occurs in one place is felt everywhere.

The Federal Reserve Board, led by Chairman Ben Bernanke, has been watching the economy in an extremely measured fashion, bordering on casual. To those who see beyond Bernanke's calm demeanor, one should imagine a stock trader of old, holding the ticker tape up to his eyes and monitoring every change, every blip in the market as the ticker tape machine clicks away, spewing out the latest market activity.

Oil closed up $1.65 to $100.88 Tuesday -- a new record-high print close -- as traders piled into the world's most vital commodity on the belief it will serve as an inflation hedge if U.S. inflation accelerates this year.

Oil had hit an intra-session high of $101.11 earlier in the day before pulling back slightly. (Oil hit an all-time high, in inflation-adjusted terms, of $102.80 per barrel in April 1980.)

Energy commodities close up

The other major energy commodities also closed higher. Heating oil gained about two cents to $2.79 per gallon, unleaded gasoline climbed about one cent to $2.54, and natural gas gained about one cent to $9.19 per million BTUs.

Independent energy trader Jim Dietz told BloggingStocks Tuesday that the market is not taking into consideration oil's bearish fundamentals, which show rising inventories in several key categories, but is trading more on psychology: namely, ambition.

Possibly more than ever before, smart stock investing requires a clear and wide forward view. If you don't have an undeniable road map for where your chosen companies are headed, you must dig deeper and you need to do it right now. Specifically, if the companies that you have chosen to invest in don't have a declared international focus, you must be certain of why that is and if it's appropriate.

Barring some unforeseen worldwide economic crash, which is in fact extremely possible, the fact sheet on investing these days is headed with the word global. If your portfolio is not thoroughly salted with companies that do business on a worldwide scale, then your portfolio is scheduled to wither and wane over the next three to five years. Global diversity is essential right now, and will continue to be a requirement from here on out.

It's my opinion that one of the most important criteria these days for successful portfolio building is to create a portfolio footprint that covers at least three different countries. If you have the funds to spread out and you're a fan of diversity, just for safety I suggest that you base your portfolio across five to seven countries. I would suggest the following research focuses as a sample to get your global thinking started.

Consider China for heavy manufacturing, machinery, electronics manufacturing, and a range of consumer goods. I'd be shy of putting any money over there at the moment, however, because to me their stock market is currently overinflated in value.

It's an adage that discretion is the better part of valor, and sometimes prudent discretion means doing nothing at all.

That, for all intents and purposes, is what the U.S. Federal Reserve believes is the best operational stance currently -- namely, doing nothing at all.

In other words, it's a status-quo monetary policy in which the Fed will need to see numerous data points on either side of the inflation / economic growth equation before its considers raising or lowering short-term interest rates.

In its most recent meeting this May, the Fed kept short-term interests at 5.25%, while simultaneously giving apparent equal weight to its dual concerns of controlling inflation and maintaining adequate U.S. GDP growth.

Regarding economic growth, in its statement the Fed acknowledged that U.S. economic growth has slowed in the first part of the year, with the sluggish housing sector contributing to the slowing, but also hypothesized that the U.S. economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace in the quarters ahead.

Regarding inflation, in its statement the Fed also sent a clear signal that while the Fed is aware and concerned about the U.S.'s slow growth in Q1, it remains concerned about elevated inflation. The Fed concluded that core inflation is "somewhat elevated" and that although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, high resource utilization had the potential to sustain those pressures.

The "Totally Informal Economics Roundtable" (TIER) met this past week -- the esteemed round table achieves a quorum whenever yours truly and my three astute economist friends from graduate school convene to discuss matters economic ... or to celebrate the birthday of one our school-age children, or for another social occasion. This week the topic was the global savings surplus.

Earlier on The FLY and on bloggingstocks.com, the TIER commented on the global savings surplus, or more-broadly, the large and increasing pool of global capital that's spanning the globe in search of return and yield.

It's hard for Americans to think in terms of a "savings surplus" with the U.S. posting a negative savings rate for more than a year, a savings rate well below appropriate levels for an advanced industrial economy, but the world is awash in capital, fed in part by savings. China, Japan, the European Union, and some petro-dollar countries have vast amounts of surplus savings. This fact, combined with a corporate capital base in the U.S. and abroad, has produced a multitude of unexpected consequences -- consequences that have lasted longer than many economists and analysts expected, the TIER agreed.

The first and foremost consequence, the TIER agreed, has been continued low interest rates for long-term bonds, mortgages, and certificates of deposit. Further, although recently released statistics from the Congressional Budget Office indicate the U.S. budget deficit in fiscal 2007 could drop to as low as $150 billion, five consecutive years of plus-$200 billion deficits normally should have led to a crowding-out effect on capital, resulting in higher long-term interest rates. Those high rates did not -- and have not -- materialized, the TIER agreed, due to that foreign savings surplus -- foreigners' willingness to buy U.S. Treasuries while spanning the globe for return and yield.