"People want to own more gold when there's a perception of growing global economic and political turmoil," explain resource experts Roger Conrad and Yiannis Mostrous.
In their Vital Resource Investor, the advisor offer their long-term bullish assessment for gold as well their favorite gold mining stock: "Goldcorp (NYSE: GG).
"Every commodity bull market eventually ends when consumers permanently reduce demand with conservation and switch to alternatives, and the producers ultimately over-expand. This, however, only happens over a period of many years.
"To be sure, we've seen demand in the US drop for many vital resources, from copper to energy, as the economy has slowed. Demand from developing nations, however, remains entrenched by necessity, as these suddenly more affluent nations struggle to upgrade their vital infrastructure.
"And although we may see Chinese economic growth slow from its current off-the-chart 10% rate, that country will still face critical needs to build out its cities to meet the millions of new migrants that come every year. And that's a huge call on raw materials.
"The forces of inflation and deflation are now fighting each other for the first time since 2001 and ultimately, inflation will win. For the Fed and other central banks the strategy is to rescue the global financial system from the economic abyss or deflation; that means print credit like there's no tomorrow.
"For the Fed and other central banks the strategy is to rescue the global financial system from the economic abyss or deflation; that means print credit like there's no tomorrow.
"The Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan and their international buddies are going to accelerate the expansion of credit to avoid a devastating deflation. Thus, I'm betting on inflation. I'm also betting on gold, my gold stocks.
When gold was trading above $1,000 an ounce, Curtis Hesler reversed his buy signal and fortuitously warned of a seasonal pullback expected over the summer.
In his The Professional Timing Service, he stated, "Gold should settle into the cyclical and seasonal lows due in early August. Although you will hear plenty of bearish arguments as gold prices pull back, weakness will be a buying opportunity."
He now explains, "I don't think there is much left on downside for the mining shares. We will likely see the miners firm up and begin to rally before the bullion. My adice is to hold tight and exploit the fear.
"This weakness presents a final opportunity before the late summer and early fall strength returns to precious metals. The coast is clearing for gold to advance to new highs by October when its next seasonal high is due.
"Longer-term, I can't help but wonder if gold isn't anticipating the next break in the dollar. We all should be thinking about the trillions of dollars in U.S. government unfunded liabilities for Medicare, Social Security, pensions, etc. There's going to be a tsunami of dollars printed to cover all of that.
"At the top of my buy list is Kinross (NYSE: KGC). Yamana (NYSE: AUY) is an excellent diversification in the precious metals sector. Also among my favorites is Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
"Gold is the only financial asset that isn't someone else's liability and it's the only asset that's reliably held its value over time," notes global investor and resource expert Yiannis Mostrous.
In his Vital Resource Investor, he adds, "Indeed, gold has held its value for millenia. An ounce of gold still buys a quality men's suit, just as it did in the days of ancient Greece." Here, he reviews a trio of ideas, each for investors with various levels of risk tolerance.
Mostrous explains, "To date, Americans have never had to experience the society-wrenching events that have affected much of the world for centuries. But most of the globe's population hasn't forgotten the value of gold in times of extreme strife and social turmoil.
"And with incomes rising in many of these countries, beneficiaries have used their newfound savings to beef up their holdings. That's a trend with serious legs, particularly as Asia continues to grow.
"Then there's inflation, the ultimate debaser of all paper currencies. Despite surging energy and food prices, core inflation remains at elevated -- but still relatively moderate -- levels in most of the developed world.
"Developing world inflation, however, is a far different story. And many countries have seen sharp price acceleration across the board, including China.
"The number one reason I like gold is because of inflation -- now a big problem in the emerging markets and the major economies," says resource expert Eric Roseman.
In his industry-leading Commodity Trend Alert, he says, "One of my favorite companies in the world is Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)." Here, he looks at this gold mining firm.
"Inflation sits at a nine-and-a-half-year high in Asia at 7.5%, a 15-year high in the Euro-zone at 3.7% and in the United States it's at 4.2% -- if you believe government data in the first place. I don't. I say inflation is running closer to 10% in 2008, not 4.2%.
"The cost of living, mainly in food and energy, is now totally out of control and destroying business margins and eroding the purchasing power of consumers, especially in the emerging markets where food and energy consumption devours more than 65% of wages.
"It seems very obvious to me that Asian governments have now lost control of inflation. The same applies to the Gulf countries which peg their currencies to the dollar. And in Europe, the European Central Bank is freaking out because of high inflation.
In a market dancing in bear market territory and with elevated inflation, it certainly doesn't hurt to own a defensive stock or two. And one that fits the bill, with an inflation hedge as a bonus, is Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX).
Barrick Gold is the world's number one gold producer, with a 2007 production capacity of 8.1 million ounces, and 124.6 million ounces in proved/probable reserves. Analysts see a 20-30% revenue gain in 2008 for ABX, following a solid performance in 2007, due to a higher average gold price and increased production.
What's behind the gold bull market? Three factors: 1) increased use of gold in industrial and commercial applications, 2) rising demand for gold jewelry, and 3) increased reliance on gold and gold shares as an alternative investment. All three trends show only modest signs of abating in 2008. Asia-based jewelry demand looks especially promising in the immediate years ahead. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for ABX are $2.43/$2.60.
With gold trading down sharply from its highs, Keith-Fitzerald offers a special report on gold stocks in Money Morning, highlighting three companies that he consider to be the "very best of the best."
"Gold remains a key profit opportunity -- especially if inflation, or even stagflation, is taking hold. It should also help that economic uncertainty is escalating. However, since the economic outlook has grown more uncertain, we've decided to our recommended list down to just three picks:
"The StreetTracks Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) is an ETF that tracks the price of gold directly, making it the simplest way to invest in the yellow metal via an ETF. And with a market cap approaching $17 billion, this fund has ample liquidity.
"Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) is a Toronto-based company with mostly North American production, as well as properties in South America and Africa, and some copper and zinc add-ons. It has a $38 billion market capitalization, so there's plenty of liquidity.
"The recent pullback in commodity prices has opened up this window of opportunity," says resources expert Larry Edelson who reaffirms his long-term bullishness on gold.
In his Real Wealth newsletter, he explains, "If you think the slowdown in the U.S. economy is impacting China and other emerging markets - ground zero for the natural resources boom - think again." Here, he discusses his favorite gold plays.
"Not only are the Chinese and Indian economies expected to surge more than 9% this year, countless other economies throughout Asia, the former Soviet states and Latin American countries are also growing by leaps and bounds.
"As long as this massive new demand continues, natural resources and commodities will continue to soar And investors who use temporary pull-backs in this long-term bull market stand to multiply their money - over and over again - for years to come.
"You must own some gold in this economic environment. Gold represents the epitome of the natural resource boom because it is the world's best barometer of inflation and financial crises. When inflation is on the rise, as it is now all over the world, gold thrives.
"You must own some gold in this economic environment," emphasizes natural resources authority Larry Edelson who sees the recent setback in gold prices as "an ideal time to buy."
"Gold represents the epitome of the natural resource boom. It is the world's best barometer of inflation and financial crises. When inflation is on the rise, as it is now all over the world, gold thrives.
"And when there are financial crises, as we now have with the plunging dollar and the meltdown in the mortgage markets in the U.S. - gold gets an extra boost. Savvy investors flock to the safety of the precious metal, pushing its price even higher.
"In addition, there's more to the bull market in gold than just inflation and financial problems in the United States. Three billion new consumers in Asia are buying gold hand over fist! Previously in China, investors were not allowed to own gold. Now they can, and they are buying up gold like crazy.
"The recent decline in gold from above $1,000 is prompting gold bears to say that the great gold bull market has reversed itself," says Martin Hutchinson who states, "Let me say right now: They're wrong."
In his Money Map Reporter, he explains, "Thanks to three key catalysts, we may well see gold at $1,500 an ounce this year, if not higher." Here's his outlook and a trio of ways to play this trend.
"These three catalysts – worldwide monetary policy, global supply-and-demand for gold, and gold's past performance – have already ignited a powerful rally that's virtually certain to carry gold to much higher price points, despite the breather the rally appears to be taking right now.
"Don't be fooled. Every rally needs a catalyst – something that ignites and then fuels the bullish trend. As noted above, gold has three. Let's take a look at each of them:
1. Monetary policy: More than for any other investment, gold's price depends primarily on the world's monetary policy. When monetary policy is loose, as it was in the 1970s, gold prices soar. When it is tight, as in the 1980s, prices decline sharply.
When gold recently moved above $1,000 the Aden Forecast presciently noted that the metals were overbought and forecast a "well deserved breather" for the precious metals.
Now, with the setback in metals prices, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden explain, "We can't stress enough that you should stay invested in the major uptrend, which still has years to run. Don't get left behind or shaken out." Here is their outlook on metals and some favorite mining stocks.
"Are commodities the new bubble? Have they replaced the real estate bubble, which replaced the tech stock bubble, as investors move from one bubble to another? It sure looks like it.
"But the big difference is that this metals and commodities bubble has a lot further to go. Why? Basically, the perfect storm has been gathering and it's going to fuel a mega rise that will likely last for years to come.
"Most important is China and other growing nations, which are keeping demand and prices super strong. China's growth has been astounding at over 9% each year for more than 25 years. During that time, China has lifted 300 million people out of poverty and it's quadrupled the average income.
Technician Yola Edwards had forecast a rise in gold to $1032; it rose to $1034, before correcting. In her Edwards Charts she offers a technical outlook for gold, Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) and Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX).
"Gold exceeded my $1032.50 level by posting an intraday high just shy of $1034 but it turned on a dime and plunged over a US$100. The daily chart now indicates prices are oversold according to the MACD and RSI as the price bounces off support at the lower Bollinger band.
"However, a negative bias remains. A corrective wave four will retrace to the top of wave 1 at about US$865 if the decline holds true to theory, which should be viewed as a buying opportunity as the fifth advancing wave should see gold rally to about $1145 over the next four months.
"Goldcorp has traced out a 'U' shaped bottom over the past two years and is now in a consolidation phase. Since pulling back from its high two weeks ago the month ended with a type of spinning top which halted the previous decline.
Resource stock expert Curtis Hesler -- who correctly forecast the recent sharp decline in metals prices -- sees long term value in NovaGold Resources (ASE: NG) for those who buy on pullbacks. In his Professional Timing Service he explains, "Nova Gold has some interesting projects; its Galore Creek contains as much as 13 billion pounds of copper; and at today's price of $3.90, that is not a small deal.
"Galore Creek sits just south of the Yukon Territory in northern British Columbia, and there is virtually no infrastructure, power, or anything else. The original development cost was estimated at $2.2 billion, but it has since jumped to over $5 billion.
"This prompted Nova to announce that they were halting construction and were delaying development. Nova's stock plummeted below $6 in December.
"Meanwhile, Nova has several additional projects in the works; Donlin Creek, a 50-50 partnership with Barrick Gold, is one of the largest unexploited gold bodies in the world with an estimated 29.4 million of gold reserves. With the Galore Creek project on hold, they have the resources to exploit Donlin Creek.
In her Edwards Charts, technical expert Yola Edwards reviews the outlook for gold, as well as her latest new buy recommendation, Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX).
"Gold rallied faster than anticipated reaching my suggested lower target price of US$978.50 on February 29. The daily candlestick ended in a doji star and it could be setting up an evening star pattern suggesting lower prices ahead if gold cannot close above US$978.50. H
"However, there is a good possibility that the level will be exceeded as both the daily and weekly MACD are on buy signals. Additionally we have two long white advancing candles and a third if formed the first week of March would form a three advancing white soldiers pattern signifying strength ahead and i would then look for a rally to about US $1032.50.
"Keep your gold for the long-term; it's today's best investment," says Mary Anne and Pamela Aden in The Aden Forecast. "Despite normal ups and downs, we strongly believe you'll be glad that you held hold onto your gold."
"Gold, silver and most of the gold shares are about the only markets to show gains so far this year. Everything else is down, and in many cases down sharply. Gold has recently been hitting new, or multi-year highs against the euro, the Dow Industrials, bonds and oil.
"In other words, it's stronger than these other markets. Gold is outperforming them and the percentage gains are greater in gold compared to all of the other markets.
"Simply put, gold is where you want to be. Silver is good too. These are the best markets. That's why we've consistently stressed keeping a large part of your investments in gold, silver and their shares.