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Gold and silver favorites from resource experts

With gold and silver prices testing new highs, we turn to several leading resource experts -- Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, Mark Skousen and Larry Edelson -- for their favorite plays in the sector.

In The Aden Forecast, the Aden sisters explain, "Gold and silver recently moved well into record high territory, and it looks like they are poised to head even higher.

"Most impressive, gold's leading indicator still has room to rise further before it reaches the high area. This tells us that gold's current C rise is very strong and it's now likely headed to our next target level near $1200. Meanwhile, December gold will remain super strong above $1,020.

Continue reading Gold and silver favorites from resource experts

Gold stock to sell #5: Harmony Gold Mining Co. (HMY)

gold stocks to sellIn my perusal of gold stocks, only one -- Harmony Gold Mining Co. (NYSE: HMY) -- trades rationally, but that is not enough to justify holding the stock if you believe, as I do, that gold prices are likely to fall.

Even with gold at $1,000 per ounce, HMY trades for a modest 12 times trailing earnings and 15 times forward earnings. For this valuation to hold up, gold prices need to continue their ascent at a fairly significant clip. If gold is truly a hedge against the end of the world scenario and collapse of the dollar, investor expectations should be to protect capital. These gold mining stocks, including Harmony, trade like growth stocks.

Do you see my point?

Continue reading Gold stock to sell #5: Harmony Gold Mining Co. (HMY)

Gold stock to sell #4: Goldcorp (GG)

gold stocks to sellImagine what happens to gold mining stocks if gold were to trade for less than $500 per ounce? It would not be pretty. These stocks are priced to perfection and beyond. That is why they should be sold.

Add Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) to the list of overvalued gold miners. At $40 per share, GG now trades within spitting distance of previous highs.

Those highs were attained at the end of an expansionary period, not at the beginning.

Continue reading Gold stock to sell #4: Goldcorp (GG)

Gold stock to sell #3: Yamana Gold (AUY)

gold stocks to sellOne of the hottest gold stocks is Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY).

With a share price that is affordable to the retail customer, smaller investors have been gobbling up shares in 2009.

But like AngloGold, the credit crisis knocked the wind out of the Yamana trade.

Shares actually were fairly valued when they bottomed below $5 per share. Now, with more than 100% recovery of that value, AUY trades above $10 per share. As a result, the valuation is way ahead of itself. Shares of AUY trade for more than 17 times trailing earnings and 18 times forward earnings. Gold prices would have to continue increasing by 15% to 20% per annum in order to justify these prices.

Continue reading Gold stock to sell #3: Yamana Gold (AUY)

Gold stock to sell #2: AngloGold Ashanti (AU)

AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU) is one of the largest gold mining operations in the world.

The gold cult has made this company very wealthy -- AU has a current market capitalization of more than $15 billion.

I highly doubt the jewelry market could support that valuation, but the wacko gold bugs certainly do.

Continue reading Gold stock to sell #2: AngloGold Ashanti (AU)

Gold stock to sell #1: Barrick Gold (ABX)

Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) announced that it would begin eliminating its hedges against a collapse in gold prices.

In so doing, the company is raising some $3 billion with the sale of stock that will dilute current shareholders.

While the gold hedges may have acted as a brake on revenues and profits in a rising gold price environment, the strategy was prudent.

Continue reading Gold stock to sell #1: Barrick Gold (ABX)

Precious metals: Time to 'get invested'

"Getting invested in precious metal for the long term is our end game," says Daniel Frishberg, host of BizRadio and editor of The MoneyMan.com Gold & Oil. Here's a look at two ETFs.

"It looks as if prices could go higher short term, especially if US dollar weakness continues. The risk of owning gold at today's price level is that net commercial short positions continue to increase.

"Attempts by producers and speculators to bid up prices are matched by increases in commercial short positions. Gold prices are being controlled not by physical buyers and sellers, but by futures traders.

Continue reading Precious metals: Time to 'get invested'

The Aden sisters: Resource experts on gold

"Gold has yet to take off in true bull market fashion, but its chart suggests that it's coming," says Mary Anne and Pamela Aden.

In their top-notch The Aden Forecast, the resource experts discuss the outlook for gold as well as some of their favorite mining stocks for investors to consider.

"Considering that the Summer months tend to be slow months, we could still see some short-term weakness.

"More important, however, is the bigger picture as gold is poised to rise during the second half of the year." Here, they discuss their outlook and some favorite ming stocks.

Continue reading The Aden sisters: Resource experts on gold

NovaGold (NG): 'Exceptional bet' in mining

"In the 2000s, as we've alternated between deflationary and inflationary worries, gold has been the only major investment to rise every year," says Stephen Leeb.

In his The Complete Investor, he explains, "We think that many miners are exceptional bets today. And among our favorite gold investments is one that we hold in our small cap value model portfolio: NovaGold Resources (AMEX: NG)."

"The case for mining stocks is that the price of gold rises faster than miners' costs, allowing margins to increase.

Continue reading NovaGold (NG): 'Exceptional bet' in mining

How to invest in gold: Q&A with the Adens

Mary Anne and Pamela Aden are among the advisory world's top authorities on metals and resources.

In a recent Q&A session, the editors of The Aden Forecast answer the most common questions that they are asked by readers as to the current state and future outlook for the precious metals markets.

In addition, the sisters answer what they say is the most frequent question they receive: "What is the best way to buy gold." Here, they offer a review of five strategies for investing in gold, including their top picks among stocks, closed-end funds and ETFs.

Continue reading How to invest in gold: Q&A with the Adens

Royal Gold (RGLD): Royal play on gold royalties

"As the name suggests, Royal Gold (NASDAQ: RGLD) is a royalty company, one of the larger and longest-established of such companies, with a focus on gold," says resource exprt Adrian Day.

In his Global Analyst advisory, he explains, "In my view, the stock offers a combination of growth, low risk, and high potential." Here's his look at this "golden opportunity."

"In the past year, the company has acquired two significant royalty packages, the first last year from Barrick and more recently from Teck Cominco. The Barrick package includes approximately 70 royalties.

"Even before these acquisitions, it had a solid long-term growth record, in royalties and in revenues. Its pipeline is solid, including a royalty on the large Pensasquito mine of Goldcorp; when that ramps up in 2012, it will add about 25% to Royal's revenues.

Continue reading Royal Gold (RGLD): Royal play on gold royalties

Reason No. 5 to avoid gold: The dollar is the global currency

Reason #5 to avoid gold: The dollar is the global currencyYou may have heard the recent calls from China for a global reserve currency that is not the dollar.

Good luck with that one. The dollar is the global reserve currency. Do not underestimate the strength of this country as compared to the rest of the world. Predictions of our demise are premature.

Continue reading Reason No. 5 to avoid gold: The dollar is the global currency

Reason No. 4 to avoid gold: Gold was dead for 20 years

Reason #4 to avoid gold: Gold was dead for 20 yearsFor more than 20 years, the price of gold did nothing. If you invested in gold, you wasted your time. That all changed with fears of inflation and hedge fund speculation several years ago.

Today, the church of gold is full of believers. What changed?

Continue reading Reason No. 4 to avoid gold: Gold was dead for 20 years

Reason No. 3 to avoid gold: Gold is in limited supply

Reason #3 to avoid gold: Gold is in limited supplyRelated to manipulation, the simple fact is that there is a limited supply of gold.

Those who want to return to the gold standard fail to appreciate that at some point a lack of supply could have disastrous consequences in a gold-based system.

Continue reading Reason No. 3 to avoid gold: Gold is in limited supply

Reason No. 2 to avoid gold: Gold prices are easily manipulated

Reason #2 to avoid gold: Gold prices are easily manipulatedOne thing I am very afraid of with gold is manipulation.

Unlike paper currency that is impossible to manipulate in any way, gold can be accumulated by a group of connected buyers for the sole purpose of eliminating supply from the market. A successful cornering of the market can result in volatile swings in price. Unsuspecting buyers acquire bullion at higher prices only to see a flood of supply hit the market resulting in damaging price collapse.

Continue reading Reason No. 2 to avoid gold: Gold prices are easily manipulated

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DJIA+73.0010,270.47
NASDAQ+18.862,167.88
S&P 500+6.241,093.48

Last updated: November 14, 2009: 04:42 PM

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