"We are seeing history in the making. And what's happening in the Middle East is coinciding with some of the mega trends underlying our investment position," note long-standing resource experts Mary Anne and Pamela Aden.

The editors of The Aden Forecast explain, "Here, we review five trends -- related to inflation, interest rates, the U.S. dollar, bonds, and metals -- that should last for many years.

Analyst Upgrades

• Philip Morris (PM) to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.
• Peet's Coffee (PEET) to neutral from sell at Janney Capital.
• Cephalon (CEPH) to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• StoneMor Partners (STON) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Tibco (TIBX) to buy from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Apollo Group (APOL) to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital.

The Financial Times has seen a U.S. diplomatic cable from WikiLeaks that states that Iran has bought significant amounts of gold. The word is that Tehran holds 300 tons of gold, up from 169 tons in 1996.

Gold, oil and the U.S. dollar: The oil-rich Middle East sells oil throughout the world. Oil is priced in dollars. The U.S. dollar is the reserve currency for oil. That means that Mideast countries are loaded with U.S. dollars.

• WTI crude was up $3.67 per barrel to $101.67. Brent crude rose $2.10 per barrel to $110.62.
• In the grain market, June wheat futures rose 48-2 cents per bushel to $7.10 per bushel.
• Corn futures were up the 30 cent limit to $6.46 per bushel.

Except for the safe haven of U.S. treasuries and the U.S. dollar, most other commodities are getting slaughtered in the wake of the Japanese crisis.

Here are some prices of nearby contracts compared to five days ago:

• WTI crude is trading at $97.68 per barrel, down from $105.
• Wheat is at $6.89 per bushel, down for $7.89.

Freeport McMoran Copper (FCX) is a miner of copper, gold and molybdenum. It has operations in North and South America, Indonesia and Africa, and competes with other miners such as the Southern Copper (SCCO), Codelco and Newmont Mining (NEM).

While gold may be in a new bull move, the shares of Newmont Mining (NEM) have been slipping lately. In Thursday morning trading, the stock price was off 2.24% even though the company posted a solid earnings report.

Profits came to $812 million, or $1.61 per share, up from $558 million, or $1.13 per share in the same period a year ago. During this period, revenues increased slightly from $2.52 billion to $2.55 billion.

Oil is the life blood of the world economy. The turmoil in Libya and throughout the Middle East is threatening the stability of the entire world. "Oil prices were in the danger zone and could rise further, if turmoil continued in the Middle East," Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency said, according to Reuters. "Oil prices are a serious risk for the global economic recovery."

As of 8:30 EDT, Brent crude is trading at $106.66 per barrel, up 92 cents. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped $6.29 per barrel to $96.00. Keep in mind that while U.S. markets were closed Monday, oil traded higher across other world markets.

SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) closed at $135.41. Middle East violence has resulted in gold rising above $1,407 an ounce. GLD overall option implied volatility of 17 is below its 26-week average of 20, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Financial Select Sector (XLF) overall volatility at 22; 26-week average is 24.

ISE Sentiment Index-ISEE closed at 114; 10-day moving average is 132.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Libyan unrest has triggered a surge in oil prices. Unlike Egypt, Libya exports 1.1 million barrels of oil per day. The turmoil drove Brent crude prices to a multiyear high of of $105.per barrel.

European equities fell 1% and gold powered above $1,400 per ounce. For weeks the Egyptian unrest did not affect the markets. In fact U.S. equities rallied to new two-year highs. Now, however, the situation is different. Libya has taken a hard line against protesters, throwing the country into a deep crisis.

"Gold rises with inflation and in times of crisis, like we have today; and, as a result, many countries are buying gold," says Mary Anne and Pamela Aden.

The long-standing resource sector expert and co-editors of The Aden Forecast explain, "They know it's the ultimate currency and gold is again taking its place in the global monetary system, as it has for thousands of years.

"The actions of the world's central banks tell the story. At the very least, this is going to keep upward pressure on gold in the years ahead.

Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX), which is the world's largest gold producer, continues to pump out strong profits. According to the latest quarterly report, net income came to 90 cents a share, up from 21 cents in the same period a year ago. Revenues were up 25% to $2.95 billion.

On an adjusted basis -- such as by excluding one-time items -- earnings were 95 cents. The Street consensus was for 87 cents.