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Mailbag: Bailout's effect on gold

Minyanville contributor Lance Lewis dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

Professor Lewis,

Interesting times, eh what? Is gold being sold -- as the dollar trips down beneath 106 yen -- to raise cash?

For example, was the hedge fund world heavily invested enough there to make gold vulnerable as the ill effects of Lehman work themselves through the system?

Also, any current thoughts about Golden Star Resources Ltd. (NYSE: GSS), Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY), Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE: KGC), and the NYSE gold ETF (NYSE: GLD)?

Cheers,
Minyan Bill


MB,

I think you are just seeing gold (and gold stocks) flag a bit here.

Now that we have a deal from Congress, I expect everything is likely going to melt up, but gold and gold equities should rally more (and even make new highs) given the inflationary nature of this deal. Meanwhile, the rally in stocks is likely to just be a bear market rally. This $700 bln will keep the financial system functioning, but it's not a cure-all. It's also going to further cement the stagflationary forces that are pressing in from all sides. That's good for gold but not good for much else.

As for the dollar, I'm not sure we'll see new lows because the G7 will no doubt try and support it, but we could see the DXY move back to its July lows potentially after this bill has passed.

As for thoughts on GSS, KGC, AUY, and GLD, I like them all at these prices.

Prof. Lewis

Analyst downgrades 5-08-07: AH, AL, AAP, ROC and RTRSY

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Today's most noteworthy downgrades included Armor Holdings, Inc (AH), Alcan Inc (AL), Advance Auto Parts, Inc (AAP) and Reuters Group PLC (RTRSY):
  • Armor Holdings Inc (NYSE: AH) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan based on the news that the company will be sold to BAE Systems PLC (BAESY) for $88 a share in cash. The firm expects the deal to close with no higher offers. Bear Stearns cut Armor Holdings to Peer Perform from Outperform and Friedman Billings cut shares of the vehicle armorer to Market Perform from Outperform.
  • Alcan Inc (NYSE: AL) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Bank of America and DA Davidson following the Alcoa (AA) bid.
  • Baird cut Advance Auto Parts (NYSE: AAP) to Neutral from Outperform following CEO Michael Coppola's resignation. Kevin Dann downgraded Advance to Hold from Buy to reflect an increased level of uncertainty following Mr. Coppola's departure.
  • Lehman Brothers downgraded Reuters Group (NASDAQ: RTRSY) to Equal Weight from Overweight pending further information on the Thompson Corp (TOC) bid; Credit Suisse cut shares to Neutral from Outperform and Deutsche Bank cut shares to Hold from Buy.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Matrix downgraded UST Inc (NYSE: UST) to Sell from Hold.
  • Wachovia cut Rowan Cos (NYSE: RDC) to Market Perform from Outperform.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 27, 2009: 06:44 AM

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