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Serious Money: Does BAC Have Anything to Fear from Wikileaks?

Bank of America (BAC) logoForgive me if I stray slightly, but I could not help thinking about how ironic it would be if someone leaked information as to the whereabouts of Wikileaks founder and "fearless leader" Julian Assange -- who is in hiding!

It would be even more ironic if a CIA operative who had his cover blown by Wikileaks decides what goes around comes around. Let's face it, in its own way Wikileaks has become a rogue nation, so why wouldn't the CIA get involved?

In the mean time, this has probably helped world markets as it has overtaken everything else as the big story of the past 48 hours. In a bizarre way, Assange may have achieved one of his goals by bringing the world closer together, sort of.

Continue reading Serious Money: Does BAC Have Anything to Fear from Wikileaks?

Chasing Value: Banks, Barron's and Buffett

Banks could face another mortgage crisis, according to Barron's, if they are forced to buy back subprime, Alt-A and options adjusted home mortgage securities they've sold prior to the financial crisis, mostly as mortgage-backed securities. Already some buyers, like Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC), have enjoyed some success returning defective mortgages. And this could be just the beginning.

The banks, of course, are fighting vigorously to fend off these demands. As usual, the courts will have to settle the matter. The focus of the debate seems to be founded on the issue of representations and warranties that may or may not have been violated.

There are no surprises among the 11 banks mentioned. It is the conspicuous absence of names you might expect to find that is.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Banks, Barron's and Buffett

Spread Player Bets on a Rebound for Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs GS logoShares of Goldman Sachs Group (GS) have been struggling lately, with the stock underperforming the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by roughly 15 percentage points during the past 40 sessions. The equity's swoon has been highlighted by resistance from its 10-day and 32-day moving averages; this trendline duo hasn't been toppled on a daily closing basis since April 16.

However, with GS testing support in the $135 region, one options player decided to pull the trigger on a bullish spread. On Wednesday, the speculator constructed a long call spread by buying to open 1,500 contracts of the stock's July 150 call, and simultaneously selling 1,500 contracts of GS' July 160 call. The spread was initiated for a net debit of $2.04, which is the trader's maximum potential loss on the strategy.

Continue reading Spread Player Bets on a Rebound for Goldman Sachs

Option Bear Synthetically Shorts Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs GS logoGoldman Sachs Group (GS) was targeted by a bearish options trader on Wednesday, with the speculator initiating a synthetic short position on the banking behemoth.

Specifically, the trader simultaneously sold to open 1,200 contracts of Goldman's June 145 call, and bought to open 1,200 contracts of the June 145 put. By so doing, the options player has effectively mimicked the risk/reward profile of a short sale.

Continue reading Option Bear Synthetically Shorts Goldman Sachs

How Much Further Can Goldman Sachs Drop?

What a dumb question. How the heck should I know how low Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) might go? But everyone keeps asking me.

I guess we do know a few things or can make some very broad judgments. Let's give the question some basic reconnoitering. Perhaps with a defensive position in mind, a word with military connotations is particularly appropriate.

The stock closed yesterday at $140.10. It has been falling faster than the market under the weight of the SEC, DOJ and Congressional chest pounding. I do not think they are going out of business so lets assume it will not go to zero. Let's even stick our necks out further by suggesting it is highly improbable that it falls anywhere near its low of November 2008 when it closed at $53.31, under the truly catastrophic financial nightmare following Lehman Bros. collapse -- and fear that Goldman Sachs could be next.

Continue reading How Much Further Can Goldman Sachs Drop?

Serious Money: Goldman Sachs Shares Dirt Cheap

It is an unfortunate thing that we live in a world where you are guilty until proven innocent in far too many cases. This is the burden that Goldman Sachs (GS) faces as it has been convicted in the court of public opinion. Not only has it been convicted, but the public does not actually care whether it is guilty or not. The public feels Goldman has done the nation wrong and must pay.

On Tuesday, Lloyd Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs, is testifying in front of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. He will try to put his best foot forward, and hopefully it will not end up in his mouth. Blankfein may be top dog at the company, but he would do himself a big favor if he stays cool, calm and collected -- and maybe before the day is up someone will throw him a bone.

The public may want Goldman Sachs to pay, but how much should you pay for the stock under these circumstances?

Continue reading Serious Money: Goldman Sachs Shares Dirt Cheap

Chasing Value: Goldman Sachs Fraud Charge Creates Opportunity

Goldman Sachs GS logoIt always amazes me how "group think" sways the market to do stupid things, or at least jump to foolish conclusions.

Today it was announced that Goldman Sachs Group (GS) has been charged by the Securities and Exchange Commission with defrauding investors alleging that they knowingly misstated and omitted key facts about securities tied to sub prime mortgages during the rupturing of the housing bubble when they structured and marketed a synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO) tied to the performance of subprime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS).


Continue reading Chasing Value: Goldman Sachs Fraud Charge Creates Opportunity

Catastrophe Bond Issuance Gap Is upon Us

Catastrophe bond capacity is maturing, and not much of it is coming back. In the first quarter, $1.8 billion in cat bond risk capital matured, and only $508 million returned in the form of new issuances, according to Thomson Reuters. This quarter, $2.77 billion is maturing, and the absence of first-time issuers makes it unlikely that the market will replace it all. More than a billion of it was from State Farm's Merna Re transaction. The successor to it has already been issued, cleverly named Merna Re II, at only a fraction of the previous bond.

Continue reading Catastrophe Bond Issuance Gap Is upon Us

AIG Derivative Exit Costs $2 Billion

Last year, American International Group (AIG) lost up to $2 billion because its Financial Products group unwound most of its remaining trades with Goldman Sachs (GS). Of course, this was the situation that led to the insurer's near-collapse in September 2008. The losses sustained last year resulted from AIG's continued efforts to extract itself from a precarious financial situation.

AIG's realized losses came on approximately $3 billion in mortgage-collateralized debt positions. After last year's extrication, AIG has $1.3 billion in CDOs with Goldman Sachs, because the company believed the positions could perform better than their current prices would reveal.

Continue reading AIG Derivative Exit Costs $2 Billion

Financial Crisis Didn't Push Bankers from Industry, LinkedIn Reports

The financial crisis, employment market and social media explosion have converged, providing a new level of clarity into what is happening in the world around us. Where was ground zero for this financial catastrophe? Well, according to the LinkedIn blog, five companies have shown the most action: Barclays (BCS), Credit Suisse (CS), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM). Interestingly, Goldman Sachs (GS), among the biggest winners now that we're pulling out from the recession, didn't see as much play.

Continue reading Financial Crisis Didn't Push Bankers from Industry, LinkedIn Reports

Pensions Consider Insurance Securitization Finance Because You Refuse to Die

The odds that you'll have a long, healthy life are better than ever ... and that creates a pretty hefty problem for pension funds. They need to find new ways to meet their obligations in a turbulent market, and the risk that you'll hang on forever is approaching every day. So, unless we're able to pass legislation encouraging mass suicide among the Baby Boomers (it's a joke, people, read Christopher Buckley's Boomsday to see how it shakes out), pension fund managers have a hefty dose of risk to offload -- fast. They're looking at the insurance-linked securities market as a way to handle the problem.

All joking aside, pension funds and insurers are translating to total pension liabilities of $19 trillion in the U.S. and $3 trillion in the UK, according to a Reuters report using data from International Financial Services London. And, an increase in longevity by one year could translate into a 3% jump in liabilities. Put simply, the IFSL's data means another $600 billion in the U.S. and $90 billion in the UK. Basically, everything we do to stick around longer (not that I'm discouraging it) leads to a higher and higher price tag.

Continue reading Pensions Consider Insurance Securitization Finance Because You Refuse to Die

Cat Bond Market Shift Favors Goldman Sachs

Nine catastrophe bonds have matured so far in the first quarter of 2010, removing $1.8 billion in risk-transfer capacity, according to data from Reuters. The insurance industry has compensated with $508 million in new cat bond risk capital, with the busy fourth quarter helping to absorb what is maturing now. Only one cat bond has closed so far this year, The Hartford's (HIG) $180 million Foundation Re III. But, the first quarter is usually a quiet one for the cat bond market.

It partly replaces the $105 million in protection that Foundation Re D afforded. Swiss Re (SWCEY) and SCOR (SCRYY) are also among the insurance companies with bonds maturing that have at least partial coverage from new cat bond issuances. Another four bonds have matured, however, with no new related issuance, affecting Munich Re (MURGY), AXA (AXA) and others.

Continue reading Cat Bond Market Shift Favors Goldman Sachs

AIG Skips JPMorgan for Asian IPO

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) wanted a piece of what could be the most interesting insurance IPO of the year, but it won't get a taste.

American International Group's (AIG) Asian life insurance unit, American International Association, is going to go public in Hong Kong for an estimated $10 billion, and JPMorgan isn't being allowed to play, insiders say, because of a sour relationship that stretches back to the September 2008 financial crisis. As a result, it will be the only major investment bank not being admitted to the party.

Continue reading AIG Skips JPMorgan for Asian IPO

NY Fed Told AIG to Limit Disclosure of Bank Payments

Did the Federal Reserve gag American International Group (AIG)? Emails first reported by Bloomberg News show that the insurer wanted to disclose information about the payments it made to such banks as Goldman Sachs (GS) and Deutsche Bank (DB) to cancel some financial deals. But, lawyers for the New York Fed, which was led by Timothy Geithner at the time, told AIG to pull that information out of a report it was going to issue.

The AIG bailout is being questioned by watchdogs, which accuse the Fed of doling out billions of dollars to banks that weren't necessary -- especially now that big bonuses are piling on.

Continue reading NY Fed Told AIG to Limit Disclosure of Bank Payments

Catastrophe Bond Market Hits Target, Records Possible in 2010

The end of a year means a rush of data from the insurance and reinsurance industries, as treaties are renewed for the coming year. Catastrophe bonds are a part of this annual orgy of data production, as a flurry of activity occurs in December, with the industry's commitment to this form of alternative property-catastrophe risk-transfer setting the tone for the year to come. The cat bond market isn't big enough to push reinsurance rates, but you can generally get a sense of what the coming year will look like for cat bonds based on pricing for traditional reinsurance.

Continue reading Catastrophe Bond Market Hits Target, Records Possible in 2010

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IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 12, 2012: 10:02 AM

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