The question on everybody's mind this week was when will the declines end? Was that the so much talked about capitulation? Have the stock markets bottomed?
Well, I can't answer that, and suffice it to say that many market analysts, fundamental and technical, are still quite gloomy. Pretty much all we can do in this time is hope for flat performance from a few select stocks, which perhaps would yield good returns once the economy starts rebounding and the bear market has completed its course.
Here are some picks and pans from the past week from BloggingStocks contributors:
Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) -- Steven Halpern brought a recommendation from one of The Forbes Wireless Stock Watch advisors, Nikhil Hutheesing. In Hutheesing's words: "In the long run, smart investments today will lead to profits down the road. One of those companies, that I now think looks attractive, is the Canadian maker of the BlackBerry." Not only is RIMM's corporate business strong, it is also working on getting its phones to consumers. In addition, it has lots of cash and little to no long-term debt and great prospects, what the advisor is looking for in addition to value and fundamentals in this environment.
Lear Corp. (NYSE: LEA) is an auto parts supplier. Jamie Dlugosch bets on a bailout for the auto industry here. Today, Lear has a $110 million market capitalization, down from its peak within the last 52 weeks of $2.6 billion. If the bailout finally happens, owners of LEA could benefit greatly.
My view of the world is partly framed by my computer screen, so I found it nearly impossible to ignore the clamor this fall about new Web browsers. At the end of August Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) released a beta version of Internet Explorer 8, which was followed a couple days later by an online comic book that announced Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG) launch of Chrome, for Windows only.
And who could ignore the buzz in October about Microsoft's SearchPerks, an incentive program with prizes for those willing to sift the Web via its search engine Live Search? Or the fact that yesterday Google announced a new way for users of its search engine to customize their results, ranking and annotating them?
I wondered why these big public companies considered browsers so important, why they had spent the money to update them and give them away for free over Labor Day weekend--and even to reward me to search online. So I rolled up my sleeves, downloaded, read some and talked to a stock analyst.
I was not the only one to notice some similarities in the two new browsers: Both offer private browsing (Web surfing without leaving any history) and crash recovery (so that only the specific tab involved in opening a faulty Web site fails not the whole browser application).
Yet each browser has innovations. As reporters and reviewers have noted about Internet Explorer 8, for example, Accelerators allow you to highlight a term to use it as a launch pad for such applications as mapping, translating and e-mailing. The Web Slices feature lets you plant a snippet of a favorite site atop your browser; you'll be alerted as it's updated.
Chrome sports what Google calls a "streamlined" look. The browser is designed as a giant box, with its features tucked neatly inside for you to pull out. Chrome can also showcase within your browser screen nine small views of your most-traveled Web sites. BusinessWeek points out that it's the "wizardry" under the hood that really matters and that enables this browser's applications to run fast.
These browser makeovers come, says Scott Kessler, senior director of information technology at Standard & Poor's Equity Research, as browsers and search engines have increasingly become linked. "Companies are ... appreciating the increasing relevance of the browser and search in terms of how they communicate with the world, users, customers," he says. "A lot of applications that formerly ran on computers or desktops now operate within the confines of the browser itself."
In the early part of this decade, I was the president and CEO of a very successful asset management firm. As one of the few firms focused on value investing, we had a field day finding stocks to buy in the collapse of the dot com boom.
Today, we face a collapse of a different sort, and it is leaving a landscape littered with value.
One of my former analysts said to me the other day that an investor could do very well buying 100 cheap, blue chip quality stocks that can be expected to do well as the economy bottoms and ultimately recovers.
He's right. The huge number of deals allows for a great degree of selectivity. A value investor today can buy the best of the best in a diversified portfolio that will mitigate risk. It does not eliminate risk, but the strategy seems quite rational to me.
One of the best-of-the-best names that I think should be a core holding in any portfolio is Google (NASDAQ: GOOG). This technology behemoth dominates the search space and is expanding its reach to Internet navigation and software. It is taking the fight directly to Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and it appears to be making headway. MSFT has been trying desperately to catch up with moves, including the failed takeover attempt of Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO).
On Tuesday, MSFT seemed to indicate that it was no longer interested in buying YHOO. That is a major mistake that greatly benefits GOOG. A deal in search only would be a complete and utter mess. MSFT had been willing to pay $33 per share for the entire company a few short months ago. Now it's not interested. Such a statement shows hubris and ego at Microsoft. MSFT should be focusing on how to compete with GOOG, and while the attention is on search at the moment, the bigger issue is navigation and software. That's why buying all of Yahoo makes the most sense to me -- buying search does not guarantee success. The managerial distraction is allowing GOOG to operate in the shadows, slowly but surely building more power.
The conventional wisdom is that the next field where the search engine wars will be waged is mobile devices. The theory behind that is that PC users have already decided what search company they want to use. In about 70% of the cases in the US, that is Google (NASDAQ: GOOG).
With the computer market pretty much gone, if Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) wants to pick up any market share from Google, it has to aim to make deals with handset companies and cellular service providers. It is going down that path, but the success of the move is likely to be modest.
According toReuters, "Yahoo Inc announced an expansion of its mobile Web portals to T-mobile, so its smart phone users who get data will have Yahoo search by default." Yahoo! also has a deal with AT&T (NYSE:T). The partnerships give the carriers a piece of the search advertising from the mobile service.
Unfortunately, the new deal with T-Mobile will probably not work well. Being the default search engine does not mean much. Almost every person who has a cellphone knows how to set the mobile browser to use Google. In most cases, PCs come with a default browser, and if it is not Google a lot of consumers simply change the setting.
Google does not do well on the PC because it is set up as the first option by the manufacturer. It does well because it is the most effective search engine. People getting T-Mobile phones already know that.
Maybe it is one of the reasons that Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) are among the best managed companies in America. They will go to almost any legitimate lengths to improve their knowledge of businesses that will help them expand and prosper.
P&G would like to know more about how to sell its scores of products online. Google wants to know more about TV advertising. The search company has been trying to break into the television commercial brokerage business for over a year, with little success.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "So far, about two-dozen staffers from the two companies have spent weeks dipping into each others staff training programs and sitting in on meetings where business plans get hammered out." That should worry other media that make money from P&G's $8 billion plus annual marketing budget. Google may not be sending people to learn about TV; it may simply trying to sell its own product.
While P&G may learn something about how to use search ads to get more people into stores, Google stands to pick up a decent piece of the packaged goods company's product sales budget. Magazine publishers, TV executives, and radio managements are not being brought in for similar gatherings. They do not have such an intimate platform for making their cases.
Google has always been remarkably clever. Now it is hurting the competition by climbing into the customer's tent.
General Motors (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F) and Chrysler executive will return to Congress on Wednesday. After facing less than a receptive Senate Tuesday, they will appear before a House committee today to plead for a "bridge loan" to give them a massive infusion of cash they need to stay afloat in their race against the clock. GM's CEO Wagoner "warned that the failure of the U.S. auto industry could lead to a loss of 3 million jobs within the first year and ripple throughout communities around the country," saying it would be a "catastrophic collapse." GM shares traded 2.9% lower and Ford's 2.4% lower in premarket action (8:04 am). GM shares have been plunging over 15% by midday trading and Ford's by nearly 25% as Senate lowers bailout expectations, seeking to compromise.
Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) is delaying jet deliveries by as much as 10 weeks as it attempts to recover from a strike by its machinists, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. BA shares were down 2.6%, with the market, by midday trading.
Toyota (NYSE: TM) -- The troubles in the auto industry don't affect just American carmakers.Toyota said Wednesday it will reduce production in the U.S. to cope with slowing sales there. It will stop production at all its plants in the U.S. and Canada for two extra days next month, and cut about half of 500 temporary workers at a plant in Georgetown, Kentucky by March. It will also reduce production of two models. TM shares were down 4% by midday trading.
"If you can tolerate the volatility, it's a good idea to begin dipping back in to the stock market, in solid companies with strong cash balances, little debt and great prospects," says wireless sector expert Nikhil Hutheesing.
In The Forbes Wireless Stock Watch, the advisor asks, ""In the long run, smart investments today will lead to profits down the road. One of those companies, that I now think looks attractive, is the Canadian maker of the BlackBerry - Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM)."
"The Canadian company introduced the BlackBerry in 1999 and it quickly became a must-have way for employees oflarge companies to communicate through email and voice wirelessly. In its fiscal 2008 (which ended in February) the company sold nearly 14 million devices (more than double the year before).
"Recently, though, the financial crisis has dealt a strong blow to the company. Investors doubt whether RIMM can repeat the 90% growth in revenues that it achieved in fiscal 2008.
"Not only is the slowing economy a threat to growth but so is increased competition. Apple's iPhone, for example, has been a hit among consumers and now the company is pushing into the corporate market, trying to erode Research In Motion's market share.
Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) continues to bet that beating the competition in the wireless arena is not a strategy, but a matter of growth survival. If it wants to rule the wireless search and web application universe like it has the world wide web, it has to be everywhere on every device. To that tune, Google has upgraded its search results for the Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone in an effort to fit better with the device's specific display limitations -- and capabilities.
Yes, Google voice search was just added to the iPhone's capabilities, but Google can't stop there. Google indicated this week that the "side to side" scrolling to view complete search results on the iPhone has been eliminated. In addition, easier "click to call" and "get directions" links are now in place for those mobile searches where Google thinks you may want to call someone or find directions from a web search on the iPhone. Even though the iPhone has a great display, it's nowhere near a standard flat-screen monitor.
Similar to how Google displays itself on a standard cellphone, a "Classic" option exists at the bottom of every Google search performed on the iPhone should iPhone users wish to get the "full Google" experience on the limited screen real estate on the iPhone. For iPhone fanatics (you're probably included if you own one), the new layout will probably be to your liking. And, just like Google wants you too, you'll continue to use Google for all your iPhone web-based search needs forever and ever. At the same time, Yahoo! Mobile employees may be heard collectively screaming.
Following the week we have just endured, many would find it hard to return to the stock market any time soon, despite so many pundits calling the market bottom on Thursday. Bad news just keeps amassing: the Euro-zone is officially in recession, unemployment in the U.S. and globally is on the rise, the housing market is far from any sustainable recovery, the auto sector is a mess and so on.
But it is always in these hard times, when things are cheap, that bargains can be found. While cheap can be meaningless during these times as Jim Cramer said this week and Joe Lazzaro seconded, perhaps some value could be found after all. What, then, did BloggingStocks contributors find worthwhile this week?
First, let me start, not by gloating, but by pointing out that on more than one occasion, more than one contributor has suggested to steer clear of Circuit City Stores Inc. (NYSE: CC). The electronics retailer has filed for bankruptcy Monday and the NYSE has suspended the company's common stock immediately. The stock is now traded over the market under CCTYQ.
Sirius XM Radio, Inc (NASDAQ: SIRI) reported a quarter that caused Steven Mallas to pause and think. The only way he sees Sirius is as a very -- very -- speculative and risky play. Since the stock has been beaten so much and is so cheap, if it doesn't disappear by the time the economy turns, it could be interesting. But only if one has the cash to burn. Jamie Dlugosch adds a reminder about SIRI's debt, hoping it would earn a reprieve from its debt holders as it tries to operate as one company. "Just imagine what this company could do in a normal economy. It would be truly tremendous."
It has worked so well in the auto industry that Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is introducing zero percent financing for some of its business customers. According toThe Wall Street Journal, "Microsoft's promotion, aimed at small and medium-size businesses, is being offered to new customers who spend $20,000 to $1 million on Microsoft's customer-management and accounting software."
Like the car companies, Microsoft risks offering credit to companies with financial troubles, and Redmond may end up writing off some of its loans. But Microsoft is large enough to absorb that in the name of increasing its revenue.
But write-offs are not the real risk of the program. Turning Microsoft's software into a commodity is. Products and services that come with too much cut-rate pricing and ridiculously good financial terms risk being perceived as "cheap" and not worthy of a premium price tag. Microsoft''s image could be put at stake at a time when it is already facing new competition from companies ranging from Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to VMWare (NYSE: VMW).
A sale is not always a sale when it undermines reputation.
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) is planning to cut at least 10,000 jobs in its investment bank and other divisions throughout the world, the Wall Street Journal reported its sources revealed. Managers were instructed to slash their budgets for employee compensation by at least 25%. Meanwhile, CEO Vikram Pandit bought up to 750,000 shares of the company at prices between $8.92 and $9.45 according to SEC filings. Another exec bought 250,000 shares as Citi's stock price fell to lows not seen since the mid-1990s. Citi shares were up 2% in premarket trading (8:03 am). Citi opened much higher, and even traded over $10, but as the market declines so do Citi shares tame their jump. Around 10:10 Citi shares were 3% higher.
Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) said Thursday that its third-quarter profit fell by 57% as its same-store-sales declined. It slashed its full-year outlook below analyst expectations. JWN stock was down over 5% in after-hours trading. JWN shares had a volatile half an hour after the open. Around 10:10 they were half a percent higher.
Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) said profit fell for the fifth quarter in a row, dropping 17%, and reduced its annual profit forecast. KSS shares were down over 4% in after-hours trading. KSS shares were 2.4% higher around 10:12.
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) reported lower quarterly profit, but beat estimates. It also cut its full-year outlook. ANF shares were down 7.4% in premarket trading (8:45 am). ANF shares traded over 4% lower at 10:12.
J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) also reported lower quarterly profit -- fell by nearly 53% -- but beat estimates by a penny. Sales fell 8.7% in the quarter. JCP gave full year guidance much lower than analysts' expectations. Shares were down 4.6% in premarket trading (8:33 am). JCP traded 2.4% lower 45 minutes after the open.
Agilent Technologies (NYSE: A) -- keeping the same theme, Agilent [reported higher profit], managed to beat estimates but gave outlook below expectations. Shares were 2% lower in premarket trading (8:23 am). Agilent shares traded 3.3% higher 45 minutes after the open.
As Doug noted a few days ago, shares in Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) have dropped to 52-week lows and then some. It's no surprise -- Google has joined just about every public company in the stock market freefall this year. But now, the company's shares have gone below the $300 mark for the first time since 2005. Is the company doomed?
Of course not. Google has very little debt and billions in cash to do whatever it wants. It, of course, won't be immune from the online advertising slowdown that's in progress and will get worse. Still, if analyst pundits think businesses can just stop advertising and expect the same business activity, that's a huge fallacy. Google will still remain one of the best advertising destinations, even as businesses squeeze their marketing budgets as much as they can.
Google's shares are off more then 50% this year, but this doesn't change the fact that Google's financial fundamentals are completely sound. But, of course, doom and gloom predictors are coming out of the woodwork with the guesswork on what Google's 2009 profit outcomes could be (flip a coin, anyone?). Collins Stewart analyst Sandeep Aggarwal told Yahoo! that "we believe that the high CPC (costs-per-click) inflation Google has been experiencing for the past six quarters is not sustainable and will pressure core search growth". Of course it won't be sustainable. But Google isn't going to hurt unless it stays this way for 24 months or more.
This is the third in a four part series which I hope gives buyers, sellers, shareholders and dare I say management a platform for discussion.
The most valuable asset eBay(NASDAQ: EBAY) has is PayPal, the dominant internet financial transaction facilitator. When I started imagining what might happen if eBay started auctioning off its parts I envisioned that PayPal would be worth the highest premium.
I think there would be dozens of interested companies that would find it highly advantageous to acquire PayPal.
The reason eBay bought PalPal in the first place was that they had first hand experience trying to compete with it when it was a separate company, and even with its huge base of customers, eBay could not build much traction. As the old saying goes, "if you can't beat them, join them", or in this case buy them.
For starters, all of the major credit card companies would be very interested with MasterCard Inc'A' (NYSE: MA) and Visa (NYSE: V) leading the bidding and beleaguered American Express (NYSE: AXP) trying to find a way too.
Then there are the few prospering banks still left standing that would have to give this potential acquisition strong consideration. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) which has already bought out Countrywide Financial and will soon add Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) would find this a must have. JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) has added Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) to its group of enterprises and might be best suited to expand the company given its growing resources. Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) that recently agreed to acquire Wachovia Corp (NYSE: WB) after staying on the sidelines most of the year might want PayPal, but I do not think it would pay up.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE: WMT) reported better-than-expected quarterly profit Thursday morning, as the world's biggest retailer benefited from deteriorating global economic conditions as shoppers looked for discounted goods.
Earnings from continuing operations were 77 cents per share, beating estimates by a penny. Sales rose more than 7% to $97.6 billion. The discount retailer, however, lowered its full year guidance, mostly citing currency exchange effects. WMT shares were trading lower at the open.
Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) sharply cut its fourth-quarter sales projection Wednesday to about $9 billion, down from a previous estimate of $10.1 billion to $10.9 billion. Following Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO)'s warnings, as well as a few others, that orders dropped significantly during October, this is further indication that technology spending has been grinding to a hlat as the economic slowdown continues. INTC shares were down 4.2% in premarket trading (7:58 am), but were flat an hour into the session.
Citigroup Inc. (NYES: C) -- The board is considering replacing its chairman Sir Win Bischoff, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter, but a spokesman denied it. A leading candidate is Richard Parsons, Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX)'s chairman. [Update: 9:30: The WSJ also reported that Citi is in talks to buy U.S. regional lender Chevy Chase Bank FSB, which operates in the mid-Atlantic region. Citi shares are trading 1.7% higher in premarket (7:56 am), but traded 5% lower around 11 a.m.
Siemens (NYSE: SI) on Thursday reported a widening fiscal fourth-quarter loss to 2.47 billion euros ($3.1 billion) and said it would be more difficult to meet its profit target for the current year. Operating profit for its core sectors of industry, energy and healthcare dropped 24% to 1.49 billion euros. Sales rose 7% to 21.65 billion euros as demand from China and Europe offset U.S. weakness. SI shares rising in Germany and traded 4.4% higher in premarket (7:25 am). SI shares are adding 7% to their value during the session.