The BIG news this morning about Microsofts (NASDAQ: MSFT) offer to buy Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) for $44.6 billion has been thoroughly covered all over the media including numerous posts on our site, so I will not pile on or repeat what you can find elsewhere.

Short and sweet: My view is the perfect timing of the offer, not the offer itself, is the news. Microsoft has been rumored to be chasing Yahoo for quite some time and apparently from the substantial offer it made today (60% over yesterdays closing price) money has not been the issue. Obviously Steve Balmer and friends are willing to pay up -- way up!

The timing of the offer hits Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) when they are down - way down! Google has lost a third of its value over the last month and it has lost its momentum going forward. The stock is down substantially today even though the company reported solid growth. That is a significant change in the playing field. Balmer, a very aggressive businessman has decided to make his move now, potentially stealing the momentum on Wall Street.

Continue reading Microsoft attacks: going after Google not Yahoo

Microsoft attacks: going after Google not Yahoo originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 01 Feb 2008 16:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is the final review of the seven stocks I picked twelve months ago, and the time has passed quickly. This covers the period from December 28 2006 through December 27 2007. It has been a stock pickers year for sure given that the S&P 500 index moved up only modestly. Having come to this conclusion, I must admit my seven picks were all over the place. Three beat the indices, two performed sorely and two were basically break even except for the healthy dividends.

If the stock you happened to pick was Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), which I included as sort of a "stalking horse" because of its popularity, it beat all else as a portfolio of one. As a matter of fact GOOG beat my picks by a whopping 930% meaning it bested my returns with very little effort with a gain 9.3 times the average of my seven stock picks.

The average of my seven picks fell dramatically in the last two months and I have gone from wonderboy with about a 22% YTD return, to waterboy with about 5.5% return -- UGH! I rode the Chinese market up and down, among the macro events.

Luckily for me I did not stop picking stocks last December. My actual average of all recommendations in 2007 is notably higher, see: Chasing Value: My best and worst picks of 2007.

Highlighting the fact that this year was suited to the stock pickers, James Cramer's average based on his nine picks beat all the indices by a healthy margin. Cramer, as you might imagine, had the most volatile picks. The two best Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: SVNT) did spectacularly well. Apple was appreciating most of the year while Savient saved Cramers tush by doubling in the last month due to approval of one of their drug therapies.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 7 for 2007 review: Props to Cramer for his 2007 picks

Chasing Value: 7 for 2007 review: Props to Cramer for his 2007 picks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 Jan 2008 13:13:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For the most part, this year has portrayed itself as a stock picker's market. If the stock you happened to pick was Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), which I included for fun because of its popularity, it beat all else as a portfolio of one.

The average of my seven picks fell as dramatically in November as it rose in October, reflecting the ebb and flow of the Chinese market. James Cramer's average based on his nine picks sank as well, but not as much. While Cramer managed to stay ahead of all the indices, and I beat the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 and marginally beat the Dow Jones Industrial Average, I lost out to the NASDAQ and the average of the three.

Last month, after reporting spectacular gains, I remained realistic when posting "Of course, this could easily change given recent market volatility. A sharp downturn in the market could reverse our fortunes. A lot can happen in the remaining two months -- I take nothing for granted."

Yes, Google has done well, but Cramer's best, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has done much better. It seems to be priced for perfection, as they say, but it also seems to be achieving it so far on the wings of the iPhone, iPod, and growing Mac sales. Warren Buffett voiced his opinion that the Chinese market has gotten bloated, and PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR), while still up significantly, dropped back off its all-time highs after becoming the second-largest capitalized company in the world.

Continue reading Chasing Value: After 11 months, AAPL +125%, GOOG +50%, PTR +35%

Chasing Value: After 11 months, AAPL +125%, GOOG +50%, PTR +35% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 10 Dec 2007 16:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Greed is alive and well on Wall Street and traders sent that message loud and clear back to the Federal Reserve Board and Chairman Bernanke today, by sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 362 points, or 2.6%. In a straightforward Dow dropping, but not jaw dropping retort of "What have you done for us lately"? Apparently cutting rates by a half point last month and another quarter point yesterday to 4.5% was not enough.

The suggestion by Bernanke that the Fed might be done cutting and have an inflation- and dollar-protecting bias in the future was not well-received. Add to that Exxon Mobile (NYSE: XOM)'s untimely and unwelcome poorer than expected earnings report and you have the makings for some fear being stirred into the investment cauldron just one day after Halloween.

Seems like more than one immature and impatient trader doing his best impression of Charlie Brown last night felt they got a rock in his treat bag -- and when the traders got back to their desks this morning they were still reflecting on that rock when the markets started to fall like one. The only thing that seemed to bring the slide to an end was perhaps when the closing bell rang, forcing everyone to take their sad faces home.

Continue reading Dow Jones drops big as Wall Street sends the Fed a message

Dow Jones drops big as Wall Street sends the Fed a message originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 01 Nov 2007 19:26:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Hey there Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) fans, congratulations on another fantastic earnings report. But I wouldn't be too smug if I were you.

Amazingly, there is a company out there that did even better. That company is Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG).

While Google is getting most of the press, this rapidly growing company is not just "high-tech"... it may be the "highest-tech" stock in the market, or close to it. ISRG, which makes robotic surgical equipment, beat Google last year, it trounced it this year, and it is highly likely it will surpass it next year.

Looking at a chart for the past three years it may be shocking to some investors to imagine anything leaving Google in its dust...but Intuitive Surgical has, take a gander:

Continue reading Serious Money: GOOG has blowout quarter -- but ISRG beats it roundly

Serious Money: GOOG has blowout quarter -- but ISRG beats it roundly originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 22 Oct 2007 16:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

One of the important reasons to have stock splits when prices get too high is to give the small investor a chance to participate. The recent rise of many company stocks has started to move away from this concept. To the extent that the uninformed private party or small-time speculator is better off not buying individual stocks, this is probably a good thing. Most investors would be better off participating in the stock market through index funds and exchange-traded funds.

This came to mind yesterday as PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR) closed at $236.44, meaning that buying a lot of one hundred shares would cost $23,644. This is a lot of money for most people and even for the avid investor, it is a lot to put in one stock. On Monday, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) closed at a mere $126,200 FOR ONE SHARE! But fear not -- you could have bought a single one of Berkshire's 'BRK.B' shares for a paltry $4,229.00. "My pal Warren" has elected not to split the shares of BRK - ever! He believes this promotes shareholders to be longer term investors instead of traders. This has worked out to be true -- sort of -- since due to the high share price, very few shares are traded. Berkshire is an anomaly for another related reason also -- it is the largest company that is not included in the Standard & Poor's 500 index, because there is a required minimum volume of trading, and it does not cross that threshold.

A couple of Stanford grads, now young billionaires, who started a company called Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) have decided to follow Buffett's lead and not split its stock either. Google closed yesterday at $620.11, so you must pay over $60,000 for a hundred shares of this stock. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), which closed at $166.98, is more likely to split its shares, maybe 2 for 1, from the talk on the Street, but that is just a rumor and it could change its thinking.

Continue reading Pricey stocks keep small investors out: AAPL, BRK.A, GOOG, ISRG, PTR

Pricey stocks keep small investors out: AAPL, BRK.A, GOOG, ISRG, PTR originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 16 Oct 2007 15:14:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Today Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is the top Internet search and advertising property there is -- No Question! Yesterday it was something else. Why do investors believe that everything now ends with Google? Have we already reached the end of the internet revolution. Maybe we just think Google has locked up the next stages as well.

Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) started with two graduate students from Standford University and was all the rage. Google started with two graduate students from Stanford University and now it is all the rage. Do we think Stanford is running out of bright graduate students all of a sudden? I would call them and make an inquiry but surely they would not take me seriously.

Has Google perfected Internet advertising? I don't think so, do you? Will Yahoo, Microsoft Inc. (NASDAQ: MSFT), eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY), News Corp (NYSE: NWS) and all the international players concede an inch of ground more than temporarily?

I am not saying that Google won't eventually conquer the Internet world, (because I do not know) but this feat is by no means as certain as the market currently seems to believe: driving the price of GOOG up $95 per share as I write this story, on no news, in about eight weeks.

Continue reading Serious Money: Google (GOOG) has no moat -- beware of false prophets

Serious Money: Google (GOOG) has no moat -- beware of false prophets originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 02 Oct 2007 15:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I think you all have gone mad if you are buying stocks today just because the market is moving up, or you are planning on federal rate cuts yet to be announced, or Hilary Kramer or James Cramer said so, or you are afraid the train is leaving the station without you, or your stock broker or palm reader has become bullish. There is only one reason to buy stocks and that is to make money and secure your future for the long run. To do that you need to have solid reasons that can be accounted for and demonstrated to have a high degree of probablity. I did not see that today.

A friend of mine asked me today whether they should sell their shares of Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) and take profits after it's recent runnup. I told them I had no idea whether to buy, sell or hold. There was no concrete data that has been released since it's last quarterly report (after which it dropped by $50 in one day) so to me it is all wild speculation. If you believe that the rate cuts are good for the overall market which includes Google then perhaps you can hang your hat on that -- I won't be.

I have been touting Huaneng Power ADS (NYSE: HNP) for a long time and those that paid heed to my comments made a ton of money with me, but even though I love this stock I am not promoting it today after it's 45% jump in the last six weeks Volatile Market picks: Huaneng Power (HNP) is my pick for the next 50 years. I like to buy on dips as I wrote when it was down 20% off its high not when it is screaming forward to new highs. I think patience is in order.

Continue reading Throw caution out the window GOOG, AAPL, HNP, ACH, VLO, ISRG -- NOT!

Throw caution out the window GOOG, AAPL, HNP, ACH, VLO, ISRG -- NOT! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 01 Oct 2007 17:39:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This Chasing Value post marks my 400th story for BloggingStocks over the last 18 months. I originally agreed to do about five per month, so I have exceeded what I thought was practical, given my other responsibilities. Through this time I have learned a lot about writing, blogging, editing, the internet, AOL, and have continued to improve my investing acumen, which is a never-ending process. Many of our readers have contributed with some thought-provoking commentary and made this time a more interesting journey. I created the Chasing Value section after discussions with Senior Editor Amey Stone, and it seems to have gathered a modest following. This is the latest installment tracking my 2007 picks.

Through September, the market has benefited from a 0.5% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve Board, recovering much of August's losses. This has also stimulated oil and gold prices to new highs and caused the dollar to shrink in value overseas. To some degree I think this resulted in foreign stocks rising significantly, most notably Huaneng Power International ADS which derives 100% of its revenue outside the United States. Last December, I made a strong case for HNP; prior to its recent rise I did so again for our Volatile Market picks: Huaneng Power (HNP) is my pick for the next 50 years.

This year continues to be a stock picker's market, as the volatile James Cramer of TheStreet.com and I have both topped the indices. Cramer made the best and worst picks for the year among those I've been tracking monthly. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is the best performer among all the stocks and indices in this review, and has stabilized what might have otherwise been a mediocre showing. It has been a good year for energy and tech stocks. The past few months have been dismal for the financial sector, and anything lingering near its giant shadow.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is once again approaching its high of 14,000 and looks like there might be room to exceed it. The housing market and subprime loans continue to worry investors, but unlike last month when an interest rate cut was not a certainty, the market seems to be betting now that another cut is not far off.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: AAPL +89%, HNP +46%, PTR & VLO +30%, GOOG +22%

Chasing down 007 picks: AAPL +89%, HNP +46%, PTR & VLO +30%, GOOG +22% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 01 Oct 2007 13:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

What if politics was like the stock market and you could buy politicians you like and sell the ones you didn't without envelopes of sequentially numbered small money orders in the same Chinese handwriting or cold cash hidden in the freezer?

For those rich enough -- they can buy a politician or two. The rest of us probably could rent a couple minutes of time with a big campaign contribution, and get lots of promises from a politician. Knowing the integrity of politicians and the value of political promises I am not sure how good of an investment politicians turn out to be.

Maybe you are one of the people smart enough to pick up a couple of bucks around the office at election time with bets on who is going to win. I have to admit I lost the last political bet I made. Good thing it was only a buck. What if there was a stock market where you could buy and sell shares in the candidates? The candidates would move up and down every day and those of us who are financial analysts could quantify the likelihood of people winning based on how bets are placed.

Now I am not into horse racing, poker or sports betting; but I do have to check up on the political bets every once in a while. With real money on the line there is a big incentive to be right. If you do not like the odds you can jump into the market and take the other side of the action. So what do the bookies think is going to happen in the coming election? Well it appears that Clinton is the favorite for the Democratic nominee with 67.8% and the Republican Rudy Giuliani leads the GOP with 35%.

Continue reading Is President Hillary 43% likely? You can bet on it!

Is President Hillary 43% likely? You can bet on it! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 19 Sep 2007 18:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

There has been more than speculation that Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) is near the center of Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) radar screen, but perhaps AOL-Yahoo would be better fit. Maybe a deal for AOL will be more likely once Jeff Bewkes replaces Richard Parsons as chief executive of Time Warner (NYSE: TWX). (The Wall Street Journal reported today that Bewkes is likely to take over from CEO Dick Parsons as early as Jan. 1, 2008).

One reason Microsoft does not own Yahoo already is that Yahoo is expensive. Maybe Yahoo has another path to follow. Maybe Yahoo and Time Warner could help each other out. If Time Warner set AOL free to merge with Yahoo than their combined forces might be a better competitor for both Google (NASDAQ: GOOG)and Microsoft.

The current five year deal between AOL and Google made Google the seach engine for the site and since it forked over $1 billlion for 5% of the business, the valuation if it were independant would be $20 billlion. More importantly at the time it was reported that 10% of Googles revenue was generated through AOL. That certainly was incentive to get a deal done. I have seen no current data on this but if it is somewhere in the vicinty then a Yahoo/AOL combination would reduce Googles stranglehold on search and add it to the new company. It might represent as much as a 20% swing in traffic and revenue.

If Yahoo were to be acquired by Microsoft, it would become a part of what is now a very large conglomerate. One that should give some thought to it's own lethargy. Microsoft is losing money on numerous hardware ventures and might be better off refocusing on software, both online and in the business environment. Now that Parsons is stepping aside to let Bewkes lead pehaps there will be the energy and insight to make a move.

Continue reading Future Time Warner (TWX) CEO Jeff Bewkes should consider an AOL-Yahoo deal

Future Time Warner (TWX) CEO Jeff Bewkes should consider an AOL-Yahoo deal originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 17 Sep 2007 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

My colleague Brian White asked recently whether Google could ever be beaten at its own game. The answer is yes it can, but not easily. He also commented on its strong brand. I believe Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) can be dethroned if someone develops a better product with an appreciable difference, not just a little better. If that is done then the brand will be meaningless. Otherwise Google reigns supreme.

Branding is much less important in the virtual world than the real world. Google has the most recognized brand in the world (or close to it). Put Google on a bandage and see if it beats Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ). Put it on tax software and see if it beats Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU). I doubt whether the brand would work on shoes or shirts either unless there was the superior product to back it up. Otherwise the brand would be hurt.

It is about strength of product and the world it operates in. If a stronger competitor comes along the brand will mean no more than it did to every other search engine that Google beat out....which is all of them...combined!

Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He is on the advisory board of Internet start-up CircleBuilder.com.

Google (GOOG) can be dethroned originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 28 Aug 2007 16:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Last week Barron's [subscription required] socked it to Mr. Booyah!, James Cramer, with a cover story highlighting his overall mediocre stock-picks performance and the associated antics on his highly rated (for cable) CNBC Mad Money show.

There have been many follow up stories reflecting on the Barron's article and I thought I had to add my voice, not to jump on to the bandwagon, but to share my own take. Differing tracking sites weighed in on how successful Cramer has been (or not) in his stock picking. As I read Barron's own take and the many twisted tales portrayed by CNBC and TheStreet.com, I thought about my own tracking. You see, I have actually been tracking Cramer's nine picks for the year and sharing it with our readers each month. This month I posted Chasing Value 2007 picks : Google (GOOG) runs up, Cramer runs down, indices worse and Cramer did in fact beat the indices through the end of July.

Here is an excerpt:

Continue reading Did Cramer beat indices? Yes and no

Did Cramer beat indices? Yes and no originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 27 Aug 2007 14:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

If I had to pick a stock to buy and hold for the next 50 years, Huaneng Power International Inc. (NYSE: HNP) would be one of my top candidates. As the largest utility in China, it will participate in the nation's growth no matter what form it takes.

Imagine buying Consolidated Edison (NYSE: ED), Pacific Gas & Electric Corp (NYSE: PCG), Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK) or the Southern Company (NYSE: SO) when they were in their infancy. Now imagine that they were all one company and the growth curve was compressed into one third the time. If you can visualize this picture then you can understand why I favor HNP. I have been banging the HNP drum for a long time --see Huaneng Power: Get into China for 2007 -- and last year I wrote GOOG is OK but HNP could be better! As it turned out, HNP was better then and it is better now! The chart shows a comparison of both stocks' performance over the last year. Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) did very well, but HNP did about 24% better, including the dividend.

Continue reading Volatile Markets: Huaneng Power (HNP) is my pick for the next 50 years

Volatile Markets: Huaneng Power (HNP) is my pick for the next 50 years originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 16 Aug 2007 06:29:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

July started off so promising and ended in the dumps. After the DJIA triumphantly closed above 14,000 it beat a hasty retreat scared off by a tumbling housing market, continued worries about sub-prime loans, record highs in oil prices, continued turmoil in Iraq and perhaps a dose of summer vacationitus. In addition, market darlings Apple and Google exited the month with a few unanswered questions. Nothing could be more telling than people speculating about a Dow 15,000...16,000...17,000 the moment it passed the 14,000 mark. And silly guy that I am...thoughts of repeating my 29% 2006 return entered my mind when I reached a 24% IRR earlier. That no longer looks like a possibility although I'm still doing fine - so far.

The month of July started off about stock picking and finished about stock picking as James Cramer of TheStreet.com would support. However, among the good picks were plenty of bad ones and anything remotely associated with housing, and sub-prime loans paid a heavy price by month end. Google maintained its leadership but did take a dive after reporting earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) set so many new highs that it is not news anymore, but then there was news, most of it bad enough to put doubt in investors minds, and the market traded down. Earnings reports still trickle in but nothing major unexpected affected the market. Mergers and acquisitions are showing some signs of slowing, but deals are getting done. This is my seventh follow-up report. For reference, check out my original Dec. 28, 2006 post on this topic.

Although the DJIA has been the market leader among the indices and may indicate that investors are giving large cap stocks their due, it has retreated lately. It also may indicate that the global economy is doing better as a whole than the national economy, creating opportunity for the multi-national corporations.

Continue reading Chasing Value 2007 picks : Google (GOOG) runs up, Cramer runs down, indices worse

Chasing Value 2007 picks : Google (GOOG) runs up, Cramer runs down, indices worse originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 08 Aug 2007 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In the midst of writing a post about how bored I was reading Up & Down Wall Street by Alan Abelson each week in Barron's (subscription required) just to see him warn of the impending bear market again, and again and again, we got a dose today. In general I enjoy Abelson's wit, insights and vocabulary lessons each each week, but after 18 to 24 months of bearish warnings it was much over done.

Today, perhaps he is conjuring up his commentary for next week when he may really have something to taunt investors about. Given that the DJIA ($INDU) is down 148.27 (1.09%) to 13,501.70, the NASDAQ ($COMPX) was down 30.86 (1.16%) to 26.39.16, and the S&P ($INX) was down 21.73 (1.42%) to 1510.12, there is much to think about. As a buy and hold value guy I can ride out any storm, but I will share with you that today 12 of the 13 stocks in our latest portfolio are down. The one excepton is Tata Motors (TTM), closing at $17.94, up 0.21 (+1.18%). The original story: Chasing Value: Tata Motors LTD - patience, patience, GOT IT!

Two market darlings were also up Apple Inc. (AAPL) closed up $2.02 to $132.35 and Google Inc. (GOOG) was up nominally $0.78 to $543.34.

You can read all the trials and tribulations of the day here: Stocks Decline After Downbeat Forecasts, but in summary, oil up, 30 year mortgages up, retail sales down and sub-prime loans still haunting the market.

Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the Principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.

It's an 'I told you so' day for the stock market bears originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 10 Jul 2007 17:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For some reason stock trading is still running rampant in the market despite all the evidence to the contrary that it is a bad idea. It is a bad idea to pay fees and taxes (or take losses, even worse) no matter how low because they eat away at your overall returns. It is a bad idea because the basis of the decision to buy or sell has little or no fundamental rationale except momentum, or charts, or news of the day, or analysts' calls, or a Cramer rant. But most importantly to me it is a bad idea because all of the most successful and wealthiest investors do the opposite -- Warren Buffett, Bill Miller, Eddie Lampert and Carl Icahn just to name a few.

Since history has proved over and over and over that day trading is a loser's game, why do it? The only reason I can think of is for the adrenaline rush. It's the sport of it. Just watch Cramer and you can see the crazed sports fanatic looking for a fix. He makes it exciting! He makes it an adventure! He needs something to talk about!

If he followed a process enjoyed by Buffett or Miller his show might be on the air monthly instead of several times a week. Instead of frantic or manic gyrations he would be making a few boring comments and calm suggestions about a few stock possibilities before encouraging his viewers to tune in next month. Cramer and other traders have built up business as a sport and as entertainment. But, if you want to get rich, follow the investors not the traders.

Continue reading Rapid fire trading is more sport than investing

Rapid fire trading is more sport than investing originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 09 Jul 2007 16:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Through the month of June it seems that it remains a stock pickers' market as Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), James Cramer of TheStreet.com and I all topped the indices. Google continued its strong move upward battling me for the lead, while Cramer lost much of his gains of last month competing to stay ahead of the indices. Cramer is sticking with his NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) pick, and it continues to drag him down. Earnings reports still trickle in but nothing major has affected the market. Mergers and acquisitions are a bigger story and something seems to be happening every day. This is my sixth follow-up report. It is not a long time, but short of a major change in the global economic picture it looks like 2007 will be a good year. For reference, check out my original Dec. 28, 2006 post on this topic.

There seems to be growing support for large cap stocks which analysts have been talking about but now might be starting to show up for real. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been the market leader among the indices and may indicate that investors are finaly giving large cap stocks their due. It also may indicate that the global economy is doing better as a whole than the national economy. There also may be some flight to safety. That said, June seemed more cautious then May except in foreign markets as indicated by the strong rise in my Chinese picks. Investors moved the S&P 500 index to new highs.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Google leads, Cramer sags, value up!

Chasing down 007 picks: Google leads, Cramer sags, value up! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 02 Jul 2007 19:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In June of 2006, after a month of writing for BloggingStocks, I wrote about our original "Great 8" stocks. Amazingly this is my 300th story - never thought that was possible. It's been fun and educational. During the last few months I started three special sections with the coaxing of Amey Stone and with the coaching of Sarah Gilbert. I decided to go back to the beginning and review the original "Great 8" again and see how my discussion points panned out.

In the past year the Federal Reserve Board has sat on the fence leaving interest rates untouched, however, their hemming and hawing has moved the market at times as fear and greed and speculation had the usual effect of jiggling the market from time to time. Housing starts have fallen steadly to scary levels in some parts of the country. The Iraq war is still on the front pages as the death toll increases and President Bush's influence evaporates.

In last year's report I said "there are no bargains yet, but there are some very interesting developments in the fundamentals" - - so what now?

Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) was the big winner to the upside in the past year followed by Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) aided by the influence of Carl Icahn, major stock buy-backs and changes in AOL and the cable business, has also performed well. The following were the four things that seemed noteworthy at the time. All of them were relevant to what happend.

1. TWX has a very low price-to-book ratio.
2. GE has powerful products to sell -- literally: aircraft and standby power engines, water resource management and equipment. Plus it has a strong dividend.
3. WMT had a very low price-to-sales ratio before and it is still extremely low at .64. While the stock price is going nowhere and has not for years they seem to be creating more shareholder equity. They are a huge company so the prospects are that they move up slowly over time but are not goin to be exciting to watch -- unless they are building one next door to you house.
4. GOOG has an extraordinary return on invested capital (ROIC).

Here's my take on all eight stocks:

Continue reading ONE Year later: AAPL, EBAY, GE, GOOG, MSFT, TWX, WMT, YHOO

ONE Year later: AAPL, EBAY, GE, GOOG, MSFT, TWX, WMT, YHOO originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 26 Jun 2007 18:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The month of May was all about stock picking as James Cramer of TheStreet.com has come roaring back after a poor showing in April. Google also made a strong move upward. After languishing for three months it has come close to its all time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) set so many new highs that it is not news anymore. Earnings reports still trickle in but nothing major has affected the market. Mergers and acquisitions are a bigger story and something seems to be happening every day. This is my fifth follow-up report. It is not a long time, but short of a major change in the global economic picture it looks like 2007 will be a good year. For reference, check out my original Dec. 28, 2006 post on this topic.

The DJIA has been the market leader among the indices and may indicate that investors are finaly giving large cap stocks their due. It also may indicate that the global economy is doing better as a whole than the national economy. There also may be some flight to safety. That said, May was not a time of caution. Investors moved everything upward with even the S&P 500 index reaching a new high. Cramer took back the lead and for the first time the indices lagged.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: Google & Cramer roaring back and the Dow oh my!

Chasing down 007 picks: Google & Cramer roaring back and the Dow oh my! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Jun 2007 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.