Social scientists, unlike some journalists, are reluctant to label anything a trend until they've amassed and evaluated a great deal of data often over years. A journalist can always cite a lack of information, or the crush of daily (and shorter) deadlines as a reason his/her news story did not describe reality, but if a social scientist errs in a refereed-article, well let's just say the action is not conducive to career advancement.

And that's why many social scientists are reluctant to comment on the impact of Sen. Barack Obama's (D-IL) run for the U.S. presidency: it's way too early to articulate informed conclusions that are likely to endure.

Still, that's not to say that one can't comment on developments that may -- and underscoring "may" -- be indicative of a trend. And along that line, here's what we know about the Obama candidacy regarding voting behavior:

Apparently winning the Noble Peace price will help you while not running for President. After winning the Noble Peace prize today -- shared with a UN committee -- Al Gore jumped about 5% to a 13% chance on getting the Democratic nomination according to the Intrade.com prediction markets, passing Obama who is at 11.5%. With a 69% chance of winning the democratic nomination Hillary Clinton isn't really in any danger, but I have to give Gore credit. He is doing really well for not even running.

While neither is likely, the oil companies could be big losers if Gore gets in the white house. I wouldn't short them yet; but companies like Exxon Mobile Corporation (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) would be losers.

What are your thoughts?

Kevin Kersten is an Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and or controls a diversified portfolio of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.

What if politics was like the stock market and you could buy politicians you like and sell the ones you didn't without envelopes of sequentially numbered small money orders in the same Chinese handwriting or cold cash hidden in the freezer?

For those rich enough -- they can buy a politician or two. The rest of us probably could rent a couple minutes of time with a big campaign contribution, and get lots of promises from a politician. Knowing the integrity of politicians and the value of political promises I am not sure how good of an investment politicians turn out to be.

Maybe you are one of the people smart enough to pick up a couple of bucks around the office at election time with bets on who is going to win. I have to admit I lost the last political bet I made. Good thing it was only a buck. What if there was a stock market where you could buy and sell shares in the candidates? The candidates would move up and down every day and those of us who are financial analysts could quantify the likelihood of people winning based on how bets are placed.

Now I am not into horse racing, poker or sports betting; but I do have to check up on the political bets every once in a while. With real money on the line there is a big incentive to be right. If you do not like the odds you can jump into the market and take the other side of the action. So what do the bookies think is going to happen in the coming election? Well it appears that Clinton is the favorite for the Democratic nominee with 67.8% and the Republican Rudy Giuliani leads the GOP with 35%.

Following on Brian White's coverage last week of Al Gore's pending visit to Wal-Mart HQ today on the topic of Global Warming is an AP article on some of Wal-Mart's recent eco-friendly efforts.

Wal-Mart's official estimate of the amount of carbon dioxide it emits was roughly 20.8 million metric tons. To put that in perspective, Coca-Cola emits about 5 million metric tons and American Electric Power emits around 160 million metric tons.

Wal-Mart has been the target of various environmental groups for it eco-practices or lack thereof.

Ahead of Al Gore's visit today on his Anti-Global Warming campaign, Wal-mart officials have been clamoring to highlight results they have achieved since CEO Lee Scott launched the official Wal-Mart "good steward for the environment" campaign last October as well as initiatives the company plans on launching.