For the second time in four months, the International Monetary Fund has cut its 2008 global growth forecast, citing the worst financial crisis in the United States since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

IMF now expects the global economy to grow 3.7% in 2008, down from its earlier forecast of 4.1% growth, Bloomberg News reported, citing an IMF document it obtained at the meeting of Southeast Asian deputy finance ministers and central bankers in Vietnam. The IMF also said there's a 25% chance global growth will drop below 3% in 2008 and 2009.

In January 2008, the IMF lowered its forecast for global economic growth this year to 4.1%, the lowest since 2003, from 4.4% predicted in October 2007. At that time the IMF said last year's increase in credit costs resulting from defaults on mortgages aimed at borrowers with poor credit histories was hurting the rest of the economy.

Groucho Marx once remarked that whenever things start to look really dark, remain calm, don't panic, and above all, turn on a light.

Given the barrage of financial stresses battering the credit and equity markets these days, consumers, economists and investors alike could use some of Groucho's levity, and some light. In this case the light may appear in the form of the Federal Housing Administration.

What's old is suddenly new

The Federal Housing Administration, the once-viewed-as-antiquated, irrelevant Great Depression-era government agency, is suddenly emerging as the centerpiece of government efforts to bolster the U.S. housing market, reported The Wall Street Journal (subscription required.)

The FHA has become the cheapest, and in many cases, the only alternative for borrowers who can make only a small down payment, and the agency is rapidly gaining market share.

With wholesale inflation running at a 12% annual rate, prices are raging out of control. But Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is wagering that the risk of economic contraction is greater than the damage from inflation. He might be thinking that it took 15 years to get us out of the Great Depression but only two years in the early 1980s of 19% Fed Funds rate to break inflationary expectations after a decade of the stagflationary 1970s.

In 2005, the Wall Street Journal reported that Ben Bernanke was a Great Depression "buff." This makes me think that he is trying to avoid making the mistakes that the Fed made in the 1930s. In so doing, he is spurring runaway inflation. For example, the price of gasoline is expected to rise to $4.00 a gallon this summer with help from $103-a-barrel oil. Back in January 2001, oil was at $24 a barrel -- it's increased at a nice 23% compound annual growth rate in the last seven years. Since oil is traded in dollars, Bernanke's interest rate cuts are spurring a weaker dollar, hence higher oil prices.

The Great Depression started in 1929 with a stock market crash. And it really didn't end until World War II -- which spurred enormous government spending to build a war arsenal. Bernanke believes that a major reason that the Great Depression lasted so long was that the Fed tightened credit, which cut off liquidity when it was needed most.

Clem Chambers, CEO of stocks/ investment web site ADVFN, argues in an article in Forbes.com that the best thing that could happen to the markets right now would be a quick stock market crash.

Chambers writes: "In many ways, the best thing that could happen now would be a quick crash. A lot of professionals are praying for a so called 'puke' because that would set a bottom for a recovery and signal that the worst is over. A short, sharp shock would be good for everyone. Recovery is better than sickening."

Chambers also notes that the market may very well be in the process of crashing right now, but until there's a period of relative calm or a massive drop, it's too soon to tell. Chambers added that if a crash does happen, it will occur in the next few weeks, and if it doesn't he sees a bear market for an extended period of time (It should also be noted that Chambers' other scenarios for the period ahead, 2008-2010, are a protracted period of volatility or a small/short bear market).