Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) published third-quarter results on Thursday after the bell. I can't say I was wholly taken with them. I know the best is probably yet to come once the Christmas shopping season really gets under way, but I was a little disappointed that the company saw a decline in adjusted profit.

Excluding items, Activision Blizzard made 4 cents per share this quarter versus the 7 cents per share made in last year's similar period. Well, did I say I was a little disappointed? Make that a lot disappointed. After all, this is supposed to be the publisher with the best pipeline on the block, the one with the Guitar Hero franchise and a great portfolio of licensed intellectual properties.

Continue reading Activision Blizzard's Q3: Am I right to be bearish?

Activision Blizzard's Q3: Am I right to be bearish? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 06 Nov 2009 10:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Bright and early this morning, Goldman Sachs downgraded gaming guru Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) from Conviction Buy to Buy. In a note to clients, the brokerage firm explained that it sees greater relative potential for near-term price appreciation in other stocks. Goldman maintains a six-month price target of $16 on ATVI, implying expected upside of more than 29% from the shares' closing price on Wednesday.

ATVI is a ripe target for downgrades, if only because analysts are so lopsidedly optimistic toward the "Guitar Hero" parent. Zacks reports that the equity has attracted no fewer than 18 Strong Buy recommendations, plus two Buys -- with not a single Hold, Sell, or Strong Sell to be found.

Continue reading Activision Blizzard booted from Conviction Buy list

Activision Blizzard booted from Conviction Buy list originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 01 Oct 2009 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) remains confident in its guidance for full-year earnings. According to StreetInsider.com, management is still looking for sales of $4.5 billion on the top line and adjusted earnings of 63 cents per share on the bottom line.

The publisher, which competes with Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS), should benefit from recent hardware price cuts made by Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE) and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT). With more units in the field, there most likely will be higher demand for Activision Blizzard's awesome pipeline, which includes Call of Duty.

Continue reading Activision Blizzard still looking good?

Activision Blizzard still looking good? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 21 Sep 2009 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Guitar Hero franchise is one of the reasons why I keep holding the stock. I figure a lot of units tied to the brand will be sold this holiday season. However, there is a looming threat. Viacom (NYSE: VIA) and Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) are set to release The Beatles: Rock Band. The street date is September 9, and analysts will be watching the early sales very carefully to see how the dynamic shapes up.

Continue reading Will The Beatles threaten Activision Blizzard?

Will The Beatles threaten Activision Blizzard? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 04 Sep 2009 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I was looking around today for a stock to buy. I came up empty-handed. One of my ideas was Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI). I was intrigued this week by reports that said the company wants to have the launch to end all launches for the next Call of Duty title. Quite frankly, I think there's a chance the company will succeed with this. So, naturally, my thoughts turned to shares of Activision Blizzard as a possible buy candidate. Although I already own the stock in a longer-term, taxed portfolio, I wanted a trade for my Roth IRA.

Well, I couldn't buy the company. It's up today (3% at the time of this writing), and I do not want to buy any stock when it's up. Not now, at any rate. The market has come too far too fast, in my opinion, and I want to trade carefully. But, while looking at Activision Blizzard, I came across this article from Ben Kuchera over at Ars Technica. He discusses comments made by the publisher's CEO, Bobby Kotick, on Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE) and its PlayStation platforms.

Continue reading Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick needs to tone down rhetoric

Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick needs to tone down rhetoric originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 19 Jun 2009 17:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) hasn't been doing as well as its colleague Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI). Indeed, when it comes to the numbers, Activision, which is responsible for franchise hits Guitar Hero and Call of Duty, has its competitor beat.

But EA recently released an exercise system for the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii that was highlighted at CNBC.com. The piece mentions the enormous marketing presence that is supporting EA Sports Active. You get a couple accessories with the software: a leg strap that is used like a controller to interact with the screen, and a resistance band to increase the effectiveness of the workout. Oprah Winfrey's trainer apparently assisted EA with the design.

Continue reading Can Electronic Arts capitalize on the Wii Fit craze?

Can Electronic Arts capitalize on the Wii Fit craze? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 26 May 2009 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI), a video-game publisher that competes with Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), THQ (NASDAQ: THQI), and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO), reported some cool first-quarter numbers on Thursday after the bell. On an adjusted basis, the company earned 8 cents per share. According to analysts, Activision Blizzard was only supposed to do around 5 cents per share.

Not only was the bottom line solid, but revenues on an adjusted basis also came in ahead of expectations. And you can thank the usual suspects for powering up the quarter. You've got Call of Duty. You've got Guitar Hero. You've got World of Warcraft. These best-of-breed franchises are selling a lot of copies on Sony's (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3, Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360, and Nintendo's (OTC: NTDOY) Wii.

Continue reading Activision Blizzard beats in Q1 -- is it still a strong investment idea?

Activision Blizzard beats in Q1 -- is it still a strong investment idea? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 08 May 2009 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

GameStop (NYSE: GME) reported earnings for Q4 and the full fiscal year on Thursday. As expected, they were very good. Why shouldn't they be? The country is in love with video games, and systems by Sony (NYSE: SNE), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) are keeping a lot of people from all age groups occupied. Including myself. I just recently completed Resident Evil 5 for the PlayStation 3.

Continue reading GameStop issues a good report, but stock sells off -- buy it?

GameStop issues a good report, but stock sells off -- buy it? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 26 Mar 2009 14:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Viacom (NYSE: VIA), a media company that used to exist as one business with CBS (NYSE: CBS) and whose colleagues include Disney (NYSE: DIS), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), Sony (NYSE: SNE), and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal, will issue Q4 results on Thursday, February 12.

I don't know, I don't feel a lot of confidence about them. According to this source, Viacom may earn somewhere around 79 cents per share in the fourth quarter. That would represent a drop of about 6% when compared to last year's Q4 results (which you can check out via this .pdf link). It wouldn't be so bad if Viacom merely met earnings expectations. After all, the media industry is working through a nasty cycle of contraction. Take a look at Disney's earnings and you'll see what I mean.

Continue reading Earnings preview: Will Viacom rock the analysts?

Earnings preview: Will Viacom rock the analysts? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 11 Feb 2009 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Activision Blizzard releases 'Guitar Hero: Metallica' play list; metalheads drool

Activision Blizzard releases 'Guitar Hero: Metallica' play list; metalheads drool originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 26 Jan 2009 18:16:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is in mortal competition with Sony (NYSE: SNE). The Xbox 360 wants to destroy the PlayStation 3. Of course, both would like to take out the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii, but that's a pipe dream at this point. Microsoft mainly wants to claim victory over Sony because the systems of those two companies are more comparable to each other than they are to the Wii. And it looks like the most recent Black Friday may have been a win for Microsoft.

According to this source, the Xbox 360 outsold the PlayStation 3 by a margin of three-to-one. Also, Microsoft increased its console sales on Black Friday by 25% on a year-over-year basis. This data comes from Microsoft itself. Assuming it is close to accurate, Sony continues to find itself in a terrible position. Really, this current console cycle has been difficult for the PlayStation franchise. But while Microsoft won bragging rights, I can't help but wonder if the real winner from this increase in Xbox 360's installed user base is actually Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI). It's currently my favorite publisher, and I own it in my portfolio. And given that the article I cited mentions the fact that the Xbox 360 enjoys a healthy game attach rate (the game attach rate is an indicator of how many software titles are purchased per console for a particular system), I figure that a lot of the new Xbox 360 owners will be attaching titles such as Call of Duty and Guitar Hero to their systems. These two brands play very well on the powerful console, and they are must-own games for a lot of users.

Admittedly, I'm sure other publishers will benefit from all the new Xbox 360 owners. Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), THQ (NASDAQ: THQI), and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) are all obviously happy over Microsoft's Black Friday performance. But I believe Activision Blizzard to be the best positioned of the group. Its portfolio should rock over the holidays, and I think the company will take full advantage of all the console sales from now until the new year.

Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change at any time.

Microsoft beats Sony on Black Friday (real winner: Activision Blizzard) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 03 Dec 2008 11:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI), which competes with Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and THQ (NASDAQ: THQI), did all right in the third quarter. The publisher reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.07. That was two cents better than what analysts were counting on. As a shareholder of the company, I was pleased to see that. I was also pleased that a $1 billion stock buyback was announced.

However, I wasn't so pleased by the cautious tone of CEO Bobby Kotick. You can tell he thinks the recession may put a damper on all the rockin' fun that Activision Blizzard is having with its Guitar Hero franchise. Indeed, the market is pricing in the risk of owning Activision Blizzard shares these days.

Before, I was used to what seemed like a constant capital appreciation of my position. Now, that feeling is gone, as the stock has been struggling. The stock, in fact, was near a 52-week low at the close of trading on Wednesday. That doesn't feel right, does it? Activision Blizzard should still sell a lot of software for the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3, the Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360, and the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii platforms. Not only is the new Guitar Hero making waves, but a fresh version of Call of Duty is forthcoming.

Continue reading Activision Blizzard beats in Q3 -- time to buy

Activision Blizzard beats in Q3 -- time to buy originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 06 Nov 2008 10:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Nintendo joins musical fray with Wii Music originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 03 Nov 2008 15:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

As an Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) shareholder, I'm extremely gratified by the unqualified success of the Guitar Hero franchise. However, I'm none too happy about statements made by Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) CEO Edgar Bronfman Jr. who believes that Activision Blizzard should be paying more to license the songs. When I first heard about that, I admit, I became a bit worried. After all, if the publisher has to pony up a higher amount of cash to the music industry, then there could be pressure on the stock.

Well, I'm glad I caught a blog post by Eliot Van Buskirk for Wired over at Portfolio.com. Looks like Activision Blizzard CEO Robert Kotick isn't taking too kindly to those in the music industry who suggest his company needs to share a higher percentage of the spoils. He basically told Bronfman Jr. to chill out, suggesting that the impact of his software platform on music sales for artists that are contained within it almost argues that the publisher shouldn't pay a dime to the music industry.

The shareholder in me says "right on, Bob!" In this digital age, the music industry needs all the help it can get in promoting its artist roster. Gone are the days when consumers opened their wallets for physical CDs. That aspect of the music industry is dying in favor of the iTunes model that powers Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and its iPod empire. Therefore, I agree with Buskirk's assertion that the boat shouldn't be rocked here. Music companies should just accept the licensing structure as it exists, look at it as a loss leader if they feel that's what it is, and just be satisfied with the ancillary promotion they receive.

Continue reading Activision Blizzard is no hero to Warner Music Group

Activision Blizzard is no hero to Warner Music Group originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 01 Oct 2008 09:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I was a little surprised when I heard that the deal between Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) was called off. Yes, I had my doubts, but I thought that in the end, EA might raise its offer so that it could get its corporate paws on the Grand Theft Auto franchise. EA has been looking for ways to grow in a world where Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) is making waves with Guitar Hero and World of Warcraft. That company's stock has done well over the past year, while EA's has suffered.

EA may be walking away for now, but I'm not sure this is the last that we'll be hearing of Take-Two being in arbitrage play. Management clearly wants to sell the publisher. Thing is, it should have simply taken the offer it received earlier in the year. Now, shareholders will have to wait for another bid. Who knows when that will be, considering that it's been reported that software sales may be heading for a slowdown (I'm sure EA must have taken this into consideration when leaving the table).

But what does this mean for video-game investors? I believe investors should put Take-Two on a watch list and pray for the publisher's shares to drift down toward the 52-week low. I would not take a chance on the stock at these levels. Ideally, I would love to see Take-Two trading below $10 per share before buying. Right now the 52-week low is $13.53. Getting to single digits might be wishful thinking, but you never know the way this market is behaving. And considering that management passed up what was most likely a decent offer in the first place, one has to wonder if Wall Street might be in a punishing mood.

No matter what, Take-Two will be bought out. And if one could get in at a very low price, then the speculative risk/reward scenario might be attractive. EA might come back at some point, too. In fact, I expect the company to, although that is purely my own educated guess. I continue to own ATVI as my video-game play, but will be keeping my eye on Take-Two and its price action.

Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change at any time.

Take-Two should have taken EA's offer originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 16 Sep 2008 10:43:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

You know, I keep hearing about this Spore game. It's set to be released by Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) to the Nintendo DS and to computer platforms later this week. There's been so much buzz surrounding it, and for good reason. Not only does it sound pretty neat and imaginative, but it was designed by Will Wright, the man who brought the world the Sim franchise. As I understand it, the player's goal is to guide a microbe through the process of evolution until it becomes a society blessed with enough intelligence so as to confer the capability of interstellar travel. Wild stuff, right? Remember, Wright is a genius, and the Sim games have certainly brought in a lot of dough for EA.

But how will the game be received? Is it too complex, too brainy for most gamers? Or, will Spore take the whole Sim concept into a new stratosphere of success? Are we witnessing the birth of a new, marketing-friendly super-franchise that will appeal to a broad demographic? Like I say, the buzz is strong. Yet, I didn't realize the title was coming out this week until I read this recent press release, which is using some celebrities to promote the game. Go figure, I guess.

I think Spore will be a hit, but I'm not sure it will be a big enough hit to move EA's stock back to its 52-week high, certainly. The publisher has such a deep portfolio of games, so this one title won't necessarily move the needle. But the celebration of Spore forced me to take another look at EA and wonder if the company's stock might be an interesting play ahead of the holiday season.

Continue reading Will 'Spore' help Electronic Arts' fortunes?

Will 'Spore' help Electronic Arts' fortunes? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Investors have to find this frustrating. I know I hate it when this happens to one of my stocks. GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) issued its Q2 numbers today. The numbers were a thing of beauty for the most part. Yet, the stock goes nowhere. And yes, I know this is a bad market day, but still, I thought a little pop was in order. As it is, shares are down about 1% as I write.

Sales increased almost 35% to $1.8 billion. The bottom line saw an increase of well over 100%, coming in at $0.34 per diluted share. According to this article, expectations were for $0.28 per share. So, do you see where I'm coming from? Expectations were beat, and growth was stellar... come on, investors, give the stock a bid! Granted, the article mentioned something I noticed as well: the gross margin declined. Okay, it declined. But same-store sales simply rocketed like a spacecraft at a growth rate of 20% during Q2. That has to be worth something ahead of the holiday-selling season. Games from Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS), Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI), and Nintendo Co., Ltd. (ADR) (OTC: NTDOY) powered the quarter. And guess what? They're going to power the next two quarters, too. We have new iterations of Guitar Hero, Call of Duty, and Rock Band to look forward to. Oh, and Lego Batman. Seriously, don't discount that latter title. A lot of Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3s and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360s will move off shelves, and that little system called the Wii is going to be the hottest console again this Christmas. Oh, and then there's the DS. GameStop sells 'em all.

GameStop beat its own guidance, and I think it has a great chance of continuing to beat its own guidance in the near future. That aforementioned article mentions that investors are concerned with slowing growth in the video-game universe. Okay, point well taken, I suppose. But GameStop is such a great brand in its sector, and consumers have come to know it as the go-to place for entertainment software. And as hardware continues to become cheaper, and as the installed user base rises, GameStop should benefit. The shares haven't done well this year, declining over 30% on the year-to-date timeframe as of this writing. The stock is much closer to its 52-week low than to its 52-week high. It's weak. But, I also think it's cheap. If you have a long time horizon, you may want to check GameStop out. If you're a quicker trader, you may want to wait for the stock to come back about $5 toward its 52-week low (if that happens).

Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change at any time.

GameStop delivers incredible growth, but stock just won't react originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 21 Aug 2008 15:33:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Can you believe the drama going on between Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) has dragged on for this long? I can't. According to this article, EA has let its current bid expire and intends on checking out additional stats behind the company in an effort to think more about what Take-Two has to offer and what its true value might be. The company behind the Grand Theft Auto series of mature-rated games is offering to give EA a presentation that includes non-public data.

EA really wants this deal. So does Take-Two. EA believes that it needs a super-franchise that goes beyond its sports dominance, and it feels that Grand Theft Auto would be one heck of an asset to own. It's true. EA would probably benefit from the title, and it might get the company's stock out of its current doldrums. And in a world where Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) is benefiting greatly from an acquisition and a merger -- Guitar Hero and Vivendi Games, respectively -- one cannot blame EA, I suppose, for keeping the dream alive.

EA is in something of a bad spot because, at this point, it probably will have to raise the bid on Take-Two. I think the market will ultimately be disappointed if EA doesn't get Grand Theft Auto (and BioShock, for that matter). It will be perceived as a failure on management's part, and shareholders will wonder where the growth will be coming from, and what catalysts can be counted on to drive the stock price higher in this tough economic environment.

Continue reading Will Electronic Arts ever take Take-Two?

Will Electronic Arts ever take Take-Two? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 19 Aug 2008 08:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

No, you're not surprised. Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) moved the most video-game consoles in the U.S. in July. According to this Bloomberg article, which cites monthly data supplied by market-research firm NPD, gamers purchased over 550,000 Wii systems. Sony's (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 was snapped up by almost 225,000 players, and Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 sold about 205,000 units.

There's no question about it now -- the Wii should dominate the holiday season. Momentum is behind the company's strategy of creating products that appeal to casual gamers. I'd be shocked if the fad all of a sudden burned itself out, although Douglas McIntyre did write recently about the possibility of Nintendo running out of steam at some point. The Wii Fit exercise system was the second best-selling software title in July. That property is definitely helping drive Nintendo's fortunes.

In other software statistics, Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) was number one with NCAA Football '09. Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) came in third with its version of Guitar Hero for the Nintendo DS handheld unit. EA should come out on top again next month since the new iteration of its Madden franchise came out earlier this week. There was a lot of excitement over that game, as there traditionally is every summer.

Continue reading It was a hot July for Nintendo -- worth watching the stock?

It was a hot July for Nintendo -- worth watching the stock? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 15 Aug 2008 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) reported third-quarter earnings numbers on Thursday (for more earnings news, see here). Revenues increased a scant 5% to $848 million. The bottom line saw a net loss of 6 cents per share. According to Earnings.com, analysts were expecting a loss of 18 cents per share. So, expectations were soundly beat.

But should investors be completely enamored of the performance? There were some interesting growth rates sprinkled throughout the release. Indeed, digital revenues increased over 39%, and operating income from continuing operations jumped almost 11%. Free cash flow, as defined by the company (management adds back net cash paid or received for investments excluding short-term investments) soared 63% during the quarter, coming in at $93 million. However, during the nine-month period, free cash flow declined 47% to $37 million. Furthermore, net cash from operations decreased 1% and 6% for the third quarter and nine-month period, respectively.

In my opinion, investors should not be completely enamored of the performance. I see a mixed-bag here. I'd need to see some better long-term growth rates in the cash flow, and healthier top-line appreciation, to become intrigued. Warner Music obviously wants to leverage digital revenues as much as possible and adjust to the new landscape that the music business finds itself currently navigating. Interestingly enough, CEO Edgar Bronfman, Jr. is a bit angry at Activision Blizzard's (NASDAQ: ATVI) Guitar Hero and Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Rock Band music-gaming systems. According to this article, the CEO thinks that the song-licensing fees for the games are too low. This, of course, shows just how popular and significant music-gaming has become.

Continue reading Warner Music Group rocks the analysts, but is it a buy?

Warner Music Group rocks the analysts, but is it a buy? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 08 Aug 2008 11:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.