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Chasing Value: How to Find Value Stocks -- Part 2

In Part 1 of this series I discussed starting with a good story and then examining the metrics, or first starting with the metrics via a stock screen and then look at the story behind the numbers.

A third possibility is to start with an idea that springs off the pages of a business journal. Some years ago, in the 25th anniversary edition of Money Magazine they listed a group of stocks that had gone up during this tenure. The one I liked the best that withstood closer scrutiny was Southern Company (SO), the electric utility.

The story and the metrics were great. It was located in one of the most desirable growth areas of the country. There was a favorable business climate, cheap housing, cheap land, good weather and an abundance of labor. The numbers were strong as well.

Continue reading Chasing Value: How to Find Value Stocks -- Part 2

Leave Jim Cramer alone

Barron's cover story on Jim Cramer this week is a perfect August cover: beach reading about whether Cramer is a good stock picker.

Cramer and I went to college together and I was a board member at TheStreet.com (NASDAQ: TSCM), so I am not unfamiliar with Jim's career.

The Barron's piece starts out by saying the viewer of Cramer's show Mad Money would only have made 12% on Cramer's picks over the last two years. The magazine uses a firm called YourMoneyWatch to determine that. It tracks Cramer's stocks from when he tells viewers to buy them up until he says that they are "sells." In a chart, Barron's shows Cramer's performance against the two year advances of the Dow at 22% and the S&P at 16%.

Cramer has a wide following. His Mad Money show has 138,000 viewing homes according to Nielsen. Several hundred thousand more people read him through products at TheStreet. He is written about in the press several times a month, so Cramer is almost certainly the most widely followed stock guru in the country.

Continue reading Leave Jim Cramer alone

Six biggest investor mistakes

Investors make mistakes every day. If they didn't we'd all be as rich as Warren Buffett and we're not.

Here's a list of six such mistakes:

  • Follow hot tips. As a blogger on AOL's BloggingStocks, I know that some of the most popular posts are the ones that repeat what Jim Cramer said on his TV show five minutes before the post appears on the blog. The reason these posts are so popular is because lots of people are Cramer Ditto Heads (CDHs). He tells them what to do and they do it. While some use Cramer as a starting point for further research, many are too willing to be led and are not inclined to do their own research.
  • Don't know how to research fundamentals. One of the reasons people don't do their own research is because they don't know how. Specifically, one kind of research many people don't know how to do is understanding how a company -- whose stock someone wants to buy -- fits within its industry. Many people would not know how to begin answering fundamental questions such as: Is the industry profitable? Why? How is that profitability likely to evolve? What is the company's market share? If it's a leader, can it sustain that leadership? If it's behind can it catch up? What kind of cash flow does the business generate? How much cash flow is it likely to sustain in the future? Does the market recognize these future cash flows in its price?
  • Don't know how to analyze technicals. Many times fundamentals have nothing to do with how a stock performs. For example, in December 2003, Martha Stewart Omnimedia Inc. (NYSE: MSO) stock started going up from $9 when its Home & Garden Television (HGTV) show was taken off the air to $36 in February 2005 when Martha Stewart got out of jail. During that time the company saw its revenues shrink 20% a year and its losses skyrocket. The reason the stock went up is a mystery. But I thought people who were loyal Martha Stewart Ditto Heads (MSDHs) bought MSO as a show of support. Many investors do not know how to analyze money flows that would provide clues to what is driving a stock up or down. This can cause them to buy when they should be selling, or sell when they should be buying.

Continue reading Six biggest investor mistakes

Suze Orman: A mixed response

Recently , BloggingStocks writers have written several pieces about personal finance guru Suze Orman. In January, Vince Chan wrote about Orman's endorsement of TD Ameritrade, with some skepticism about her motives. On February 26th, I wrote that Suze Orman had come out in an interview with the New York Times. Orman has received a mixed reception in the media, and last week I defended her, and then my colleague Georges Yared wrote a piece not defending her.

Throughout all this coverage of Suze Orman in the media and on BloggingStocks, our readers have responded in a way that can best be described as bimodal. Some of the comments:

No one who has a clue listens to Suze Orman's squawking anyway.

Some of the best financial advise I got was from Suze on a PBS special, and for all intents and purposes it was FREE!

Her financial spew is completely useless and PAINFUL to listen to.

Suze gives sound advice, she translates the difficult subject of finance to everyone. Thanks Suze for making MONEY TALK easy.

Blogging Stocks has sure been kissing up to Scamming Suze lately. What are you invested in?

I watch her shows every Saturday and refer to her money tips whenever I need to. Her advice about purchasing real estate has helped me avoid potential "mortgage disasters" so that I can own my own home. I admire her bravery for tackling all those bullies, especially men, who can't accept that a woman can succeed to the top.

To take a deeper look into Suze and the advice she gives, I will be watching each broadcast of her weekly show, and reporting on the situations, her advice, and other alternative options. Please comment with your thoughts about Suze Orman and show.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 11, 2012: 05:27 AM

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