The elections are upon us with less than 24 hours before the polls open. Our current president George W. Bush has sat by as the economy went from good to bad to worse and his reputation and political standing went with it.
I have voted Republican and I have voted Democrat. I vote for the person, not the party. As the nation ponders who will be sitting in the Oval Office in 2009 I am quite confident that I am not alone. From day one I have felt that Dubya was in the White House because of dear old dad, the senior being far more qualified than junior. Junior became the front man for ideologues more intent on forcing their will upon others after a very dubious election result than all else.
From what I have seen and read, GWB has never been a great success at anything but politics, and now that reputation is toast too. While history has been kind to some past presidents allowing at least partial redemption -- Truman as direct, honest and a strong leader, Nixon on foreign policy issues, and most recently Carter as a humanitarian -- our current president has little to show for his eight years.
U.S. stock futures were somewhat higher Monday morning as investors put October -- one of the worst months ever -- behind them and braced for the impact of the presidential election. A slew of economic data will be released this week, including September construction spending and the October release of the ISM index due today after the market opens. Global stocks were generally higher even as oil slipped again.
PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP) said Monday it will invest $1 billion in China over the next four years. The beverage company wants to expand local manufacturing capability, research and development and sales force.
General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) -- the company has been in the process of trying to find a way to merge with Chrysler. While we didn't hear much about the merger so far from the United Auto Workers union, it seems it intends to play a key part in it and has has retained an adviser to help with workers' concerns should the merger occur, the WSJ reported.
Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) saw its 27,000 machinists resuming work Sunday after a 57-day strike that shut down production. Because of logistics, it will take several weeks before Boeing is running normally. The company missed at least 70 deliveries as a result of the strike. Seems it may miss more until production is properly under way. Boeing was downgraded to Conviction Sell from Neutral by Goldman Sachs, saying investors should sell into the strength from the resolution of the machinists union strike.
This post is part of a feature on companies and products that our bloggers think are in need of a makeover.See all 26.
Remember Dick Cheney? He hasn't emerged from his spider hole since shooting his buddy in the face at a quail hunt. But last time I was in Washington, I was walking along the street near George Washington University Hospital and suddenly all the cars disappeared and an armada of police cars and black suburbans whizzed by. I was later told that it was Cheney getting his stent checked up.
Prior to his stint in the administration of the 43rd president, It turns out that Cheney's heart beat for Halliburton (NYSE: HAL). In 2004, for example, taxpayers provided Halliburton's KBR subsidiary with $7 billion to provide services in Iraq while it took hundreds of millions of dollars in improper charges. With its 2% profit over costs, the more taxpayer money Halliburton spent, the higher its profits. Fortunately, Halliburton spun off that pesky KBR subsidiary in April 2007.
But it has other problems. The SEC is investigating Halliburton for paying bribes in Nigeria; its KBR subsidiary did a lousy job replacing bolts on an undersea pipeline that will cost Halliburton up to $220 million; the SEC investigated Halliburton for bogus contract revenue accounting; it settled asbestos litigation; a competitor of Hallburton accuses it of antitrust violations; and it received a $108 million judgment for dumping hazardous waste.
U.S. stock futures jumped higher Monday morning as investors gain more confidence in the different government actions taken to stabilize financial markets. Global shares advanced overnight following measures taken worldwide. Indeed, the three-month U.S. dollar LIBOR, a measure of the rate at which banks lend to each other, dropped to 4.06% from 4.42%.
Also, investors will be keeping an eye on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testimony before the House Budget Committee on the economic outlook and financial markets at 10:00 am EST, same time as the release of the September leading indicators.
As OPEC prepares for a production cut and oil rose to above $74 per barrel, earnings season on Wall Street continues in full swing this week:
Mattel Inc. (NYSE: MAT) reported third-quarter results this morning. Mattel's income rose, but not enough and it missed expectations.
Hasbro (NYSE: HAS) reported a 14% drop in third-quarter profit, but it beat expectations.
Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) swung to a loss in the third quarter, but managed to beat earnings expectations by a penny excluding charges. Revenue in the quarter rose 24%.
SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK), American Express (NYSE: AXP) and Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) report third-quarter results after the closing bell.
Wall Street's optimism in last week's preview about the earnings of tech stocks wasn't misplaced, as there were many more positive surprises than negative ones among the stocks we looked at. This week will bring plenty more data for investors in and watchers of the sector to mull over. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), for example, are expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial to post modest earnings gains from a year ago, to $1.11 per share (on $8.1 billion in sales), $0.72 per share (on $31.3 billion in sales), and $0.47 per share (on $14.8 billion in sales) respectively. All three of these companies ended the week closer to their 52-week lows than highs, and analysts on average consider them each a buy.
Here's a look at some of the week's biggest expected earnings gainers and decliners in the sector:
Baidu.com Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU): $1.25 per share (+44.0%) on revenues of $134.7 million (+103.2%)
Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM): $0.44 per share (+38.6%) on revenues of $1.3 billion (+33.8%)
QLogic Corp. (NASDAQ: QLGC): $0.31 per share (+29.0%) on revenues of $170.0 million (+21.2%)
FLIR Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: FLIR): $0.32 per share (+28.1%) on revenues of $275.2 million (+44.0%)
Juniper Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: JNPR): $0.30 per share (+26.7%) on revenues of $927.4 million (+26.2%)
Waters Corp. (NYSE: WAT): $0.75 per share (+17.3%) on revenues of $391.6 million (+11.1%)
All my career, the sentiment indicators have worked. When you get anything near minus 10 on the oscillator, you have to be silly not to buy. When you get anything approximating 35% bulls on the Investors Intelligence survey, you have to buy.
We have almost double that negative on the oscillator and half as many bulls as that pathetic number.
Sentiment has become meaningless. It is incredible.
If we are going into a severe recession, some of the selling makes sense, but not all of it. As we pull back to 8500 on the Dow, we will be looking at stocks that are yielding 6% to 7% that are solid and can't be shaken. We will be finding stocks at prices that we will look back and think it was impossible to believe.
And then there will be another cohort where we will buy and then watch them go down again, because business is so soft.
I want to reiterate that the stock market for now is just plain broken. You can't have Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) down 15% like it is nothing. The company should be losing money with that kind of decline. Remember when I said on Monday that you can't have ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) ) go up 10 because it can go down 10 just as easily?
If John McCain wants my vote he must dump Sarah Palin and fast. Judging by the latest polls showing Barack Obama moving ahead and gaining traction, I'm not the only one that feels this way. The outcome of the election is key to investors worried about a range of issues including the $700 billion federal bailout of Wall Street.
Obama may lack the experience I would hope to see in a presidential candidate but to quote a friend and fellow McCain supporter "Sarah Palin is an idiot and the only way she should be allowed in the White House is if she buys a tour ticket." This is not a unique sentiment given the Sarah Palin must go stance taken by conservative columnist Kathleen Parker of the Los Angeles Times. She says her cringe reflex is being exhausted.
I do not like Obama's proposals on capital gains taxes, a windfall oil profits tax, new government programs and several other issues, but the idea of Palin being second-in-command is a joke. And speaking of jokes, if I have misjudged, and McCain and Palin win the election, then Oprah will be surpassed as the wealthiest female in the entertainment industry. The new titan will be 30 Rock and former Saturday Night Live star Tina Fey who will be racking up fat paychecks based on the never ending material supplied by Palin.
Goldman Sachs shook up its ratings on the oil-services sector today, and made a notable adjustment to its "conviction buy" list -- Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) was ousted from the roster in favor of Transocean Inc. (NYSE: RIG). The brokerage firm still maintains a "buy" rating on HAL, but it's pretty obvious that the stock is now playing Jan Brady to RIG's Marcia.
So, why does Goldman prefer RIG to HAL? The former is more strongly levered to oil than the latter -- and, going forward, the analysts expect strong fundamentals and heightened oil prices to support "oilier" stocks. In a note to clients, Goldman said, "... we continue to expect a healthy oil-services spending environment through 2010, supported by low reinvestment rates and secular trends to more complex, high-margin drilling services."
Despite the bullish "buy" ratings on both securities, Goldman tempered its optimism by trimming its price targets on the duo. HAL's forecast was slashed from $63 to $58, while RIG's was trimmed from $189 to $178. The new price targets represent a 44.5% premium from HAL's closing price yesterday, and a 47% increase from RIG's Thursday settlement.
This charming pic-toon of moderation comes from one of my talented long time friends, Ron Overmyer, who has allowed me to share it with our readers. He does a weekly email blast and this is one of his tamer commentaries, one that might give us pause to consider what it means to be objective.
I thought I would take a moment to shout out to any moderates in the audience and say that I too have worried that some of my colleagues may have sacrificed their reputations for objectivity by writing some posts that could be viewed as borderline paid political announcements. Some readers have quipped that this should be included in the disclosure. However, on the occasion that this is true, it is usually so blatant that I would characterize such disclosure as redundant.
Several of my posts contain political commentary but I think our posts should be about investing, not swaying voter opinion. I especially avoid one-sided rationalizations that appear to have a specific agenda -- although I readily admit that on occasion the dividing line may be very fine indeed.
I still have not made up my mind about the upcoming election because I find some merit in the positions of each candidate. But to me the real question on our site remains: where do you put your money in the case of either candidate's success?
Stocks futures are lower Tuesday morning, indicating U.S. stock markets will start on a down note following weak outlooks and disappointing financial results from several companies including Apple and American Express. With oil steady and no economic data out today, Wall Street will focus on earnings.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) reported after the close Monday a record quarter that beat analyst estimates, posting a 31% surge in earnings. Mac and iPod sales satisfied investors, while iPhone sales were somewhat on the lighter side. What concerned investors most was the very weak guidance Apple gave, which was weak even by Apple's standards of lowballing. Other issues included margin squeeze and Jobs health. Apple shares were 10% lower in Frankfurt and premarket trading. American Express (NYSE: AXP), said late Monday its second-quarter results fell 38% due to the weakening economy. The company, which missed projections, caters to the more affluent who have good credit, and yet even this company felt the pains from the slowing economy. AmEx earned 56 cents per share compared to estimates of 83 cents per share. The company's stock tumbled AXP shares are down over 12% in premarket trading.
Also reporting Monday after the close were Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK), Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) and SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK). MRK shares are down over 6.6% in premarket trading as the company said it would stop give guidance of results. TXN shares are also declining over 10.5% in premarket trading after it gave a disappointing forecast. SNDK shares are plunging over 16% in premarket trading after it swung to a Q2 loss, missing analyst estimates.
This morning we'll have another wave of earnings, and already started were DuPont and Wachovia.
Again this week, in a list of earnings expectations for some prominent companies in a variety of sectors, we see an apparent optimism. That is, analysts are anticipating more earnings growth than earnings declines.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the following companies to report a rise in earnings when compared to the same period of the previous year.
Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) shares are trading higher today after an analyst wrote in the Wall Street Journal over the weekend that despite rises in oil prices, many oil stocks and oil service companies are undervalued based on price/earnings ratios. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on HAL.
After hitting a one-year low of $30.00 in January, the stock hit a one-year high of $55.38 earlier this month. HAL opened this morning at $48.23. So far today the stock has hit a low of $48.23 and a high of $50.08. As of 1:05, HAL is trading at $48.90, up $1.03 (2.1%). The chart for HAL looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $42.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.5% return in just five weeks as long as HAL is above $42.50 at August expiration. Halliburton would have to fall by more than 13% before we would start to lose money.
HAL hasn't been below $44 at all since April and has shown support around $45 recently. This trade could be risky if the price of oil drops off in the coming month, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find around $45 where it formed a bottom in early May.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in HAL.
The need for oil drilling services will continue even if the price of oil declines, according to Richard Lehmann. Here, in his The ETF Investor, he looks at a favorite way for investors to play this trend.
"Oil prices have a triple or quadruple price boost associated with them. The first is supply/demand dynamics, the second is the weak dollar, the third is speculative fervor and the fourth inflation fears.
"A pundit said that last year it took 65 Euros to buy a barrel of oil and today it still takes 65 Euros to buy a barrel of oil. This illustrates the effect the weak dollar is having on U.S. prices and the international price of oil.
"Inflation protection used to be the province of gold, but now it seems oil is serving a similar function. We think the current oil bubble has not run its course.
"One of our past recommendations, the Oil Service Holders Trust (NYSE: OIH), was first suggested in February 2006 at a price of $101.50. We recommended it again in December 2007 at a price of $179.83.
BCE Inc. (NYSE: BCE) shares are jumping over 10% in premarket trading after Canada's Supreme Court overturned a Quebec Court decision, clearing the way for the $52 billion leveraged buyout by Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan and U.S. private equity firms. The buyers might still negotiate the price down though.
Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) withdrew a $3.6 billion offer for Britain's Expro International after the U.K. oil services firm stuck by a smaller bid from a private-equity consortium.
Some analyst calls this morning:
J.C. Penney Co. (NYSE: JCP) was upgraded by Deutsche Bank to Buy from Hold and the price target upped to $46 from $45.
Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) was downgraded by Piper Jaffray to Sell from Neutral on continued weakness in North American market. The target price was cut to $7 from $9.75. Shares are down over 2% in premarket trading.
First Solar (NYSE: FSLR) price target was upped at Lehman Brothers from $280 to $335. Shares are up over 2.5% in premarket trading.
After hitting a one-year low of $30.00 in January, the stock has hit a new one-year high today. HAL opened this morning at $49.74. So far today the stock has hit a low of $49.61 and a high of $51.12. As of 12:40, HAL is trading at $50.01, up 71 cents (1.4%). The chart for HAL looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $45 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 13.6% return in just six weeks as long as HAL is above $45 at July expiration. HAL would have to fall by more than 9% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
HAL hasn't been below $45 by more than a few cents since early April and has shown support around $48 recently. This trade could be risky if the price of oil heads lower, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find around $45 where it formed a bottom over the past two months.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in HAL.
The elections are upon us with less than 24 hours before the polls open. Our current president George W. Bush has sat by as the economy went from good to bad to worse and his reputation and political standing went with it.
U.S. stock futures were somewhat higher Monday morning as investors put October -- one of the worst months ever -- behind them and braced for the impact of the presidential election. A slew of economic data will be released this week, including September construction spending and the October release of the ISM index due today after the market opens. Global stocks were generally higher even as 
This post is part of a feature on companies and products that our bloggers think are in need of a makeover. 
Wall Street's optimism in 
All my career, the sentiment indicators have worked. When you get anything near minus 10 on the oscillator, you have to be silly not to buy. When you get anything approximating 35% bulls on the Investors Intelligence survey, you have to buy.
If John McCain wants my vote he must dump Sarah Palin and fast. Judging by 
Goldman Sachs shook up its 
This charming pic-toon of moderation comes from one of my talented long time friends, Ron Overmyer, who has allowed me to share it with our readers. He does a weekly email blast and this is one of his tamer commentaries, one that might give us pause to consider what it means to be objective. 
Stocks futures are lower Tuesday morning, indicating U.S. stock markets will start on a down note following weak outlooks and disappointing financial results from several companies including Apple and American Express. With oil steady and no economic data out today, Wall Street will focus on earnings.
Stock picks and pans for troubled times: RIMM, ED, ISRG, GLW, LEA, SLB, GOOG ...
Is Berkshire Hathaway better than S&P Index?
Closing Bell: Torch Passing on a Friday Rally
