Netflix (NFLX), which has established a strong foothold in the online streaming business, is now looking to bid for exclusive rights to original content. Currently, the arena of online movie sales and rental is dominated by services like Apple's (AAPL) iTunes, Netflix, Amazon.com (AMZN), Hulu etc. Our price estimate for Netflix stands at $119 -- significantly below the current market price, which is above $200.
HBO posts
Feed'House of Cards' Signals New Motivations for Netflix
Continue reading 'House of Cards' Signals New Motivations for Netflix
Exploit Your Employer for Big Returns (with Video)
Say you have $20,000 to $100,000 to invest. You can put it in stocks, hope to make a 10% return over time, and if the market moves up, you could walk away with an extra $2,000 to $10,000 before taxes. Or, you could take that same investment, and put it into something that could generate far greater returns.
James Altucher, Managing Director of Formula Capital, says that a better way to reap big returns is to exploit your employer. (See video.)
Continue reading Exploit Your Employer for Big Returns (with Video)
Netflix: How Does the Stock Look Now?
I wrote about Netflix (NFLX) back in April. At the time, I was very cautious about the stock's prospects. It turned out I was a little too cautious. The stock has risen since my piece was published from about $87 to yesterday's closing price of over $107. Very impressive action. But the stock was even higher not long ago. The 52-week high on the shares is $127.96. When you look at the one-year chart, and the recent dip experienced by the equity, you begin to wonder: is this a buying opportunity? After all, the movie-rental company continues to focus on its pursuit of producing a comprehensive, shareholder-value-increasing digital strategy.
GE's Universal says no to Spielberg; Disney may say yes? Really?!
I'll tell you, I find this such amazingly telling news. General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal Pictures apparently does not want to distribute a DreamWorks slate anymore.
According to The Hollywood Reporter, changes that DreamWorks wanted to make to the previous deal that was already hammered out did not pass muster with Universal execs. In a statement, Universal commented that such changes no longer fit the movie studio's business plan. You'll recall that Steven Spielberg and his DreamWorks company left the Viacom (NYSE: VIA) fold recently in pursuit of fresh funding and a new distribution partner to start life anew.
Continue reading GE's Universal says no to Spielberg; Disney may say yes? Really?!
HBO and Apple singing the same iTune?
Is there any content company not interested in dealing with Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iTunes platform? According to Portfolio.com, media conglomerate Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) would like to see its HBO programming distributed on Apple's best-of-breed digital service. An announcement of a deal could be forthcoming very soon.
While some many question the move since HBO is a premium subscription service and could conceivably lose some of its allure, I think it is smart strategy. Digital distribution isn't going away, and HBO needs to be part of every platform, even iTunes. Plus, imagine the possibilities to really cash in here. What if the finale of The Sopranos had been sold on iTunes before it aired? Little experiments like this would not only be valuable in terms of testing contemporary theories about distribution paradigms in the 21st century, but they might also be profitable.
Perhaps the key element of this story is that it seems as if Time Warner was able to convince Apple that its content is worth more than the typical iTunes price point of $1.99. This is important because price elasticity will ultimately determine the overall value of a content library. Apple would, of course, like to charge the bare minimum to the users of its hardware, but where does that leave an HBO? No, HBO would be smart in starting as high as possible in terms of price and then adjusting after a full analysis.
I look forward to seeing this agreement announced, and if it is, I think HBO will not only make some money with Apple, but it will find that the pay-cable channel's brand equity will be boosted in the bargain. Some iTune users might actually be prompted to subscribe. HBO is known as a home for quality programs -- I loved the old Tales From the Crypt series -- and it may soon be known as an iTunes top seller.
Disclosure: I don't own shares in any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.
Blockbuster (BBI) wants part of new Viacom (VIA) pay channel
Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI) must want to own a piece of everything. First, it made a bid for Circuit City (NYSE: CC) and now it is trying to get a piece of the new pay TV channel being launched by Viacom (NYSE: VIA).
Viacom says it will start a TV network with movies and other video content with contributions from MGM and Lions Gate (NYSE: LGF). The channel will compete with HBO and Showtime.
According to The Wall Street Journal, "As part of a deal being discussed, Blockbuster would get digital rights to the new channel's programming in return for an investment in the partnership."
How that makes sense is a mystery. The Viacom channel can sell DVDs though a number of outlets. Streaming content over the internet does not require help from Blockbuster. How does a company with rental stores and a DVD-by-Internet operation help a pay TV channel which will be distributed by satellite and cable?
Blockbuster has problems of its own. For starters, it just needs to stay in business. Its stock trades at $2.98, near a 52-week low, and down from more than $20 less than five years ago. Putting capital into new ventures or nutty M&A transactions is a waste of shareholder money.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 Letter.
CBS's Showtime to get competition
Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Paramount studio, MGM, and Lionsgate (NYSE: LGF) want their own pay TV channel. That means Viacom will cut ties with Showtime, owned by CBS (NYSE: CBS). MGM and Lionsgate will also break with the CBS property. The deal is more interesting since Sumner Redstone is chairman of both CBS and Viacom.
According to The New York Times, "The deal raises the question of how Showtime will fill the feature film portion of its programming slate. Showtime pays more than $100 million a year to the studios to show their movies."
The new channel could end up ruining Showtime, hurting the CBS financials, and setting up new competition for HBO, but it is a sign of the times. Studios are seeing more and more premium video going to the internet. Some of that content is pirated. It is a cinch the new channel will be a better economic deal for the studios involved. They need the money.
The $100 million budget film used to be unusual. Now it seems to be the norm. Studios which cannot bring in more revenue though new distribution deals may see their P&L's falter, so they are aggressively changing their revenue models, even if it means cutting the throats of old friends.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Before the bell: Futures lower ahead of Bernanke testimony
Stock futures were lower this morning, indicating a similar start on Wall Street as a day of profit taking seems to be ahead to snap-up a three-day winning streak. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke heading to congress today to discuss the economy while the dollar reached a new against the euro and several other currencies.On Tuesday, stocks rallied despite some weak data on the housing sector, inflation and consumer confidence. Instead, a $15 billion stock buy-back plan from International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) triggered a surge in the markets with the Dow industrials rising 114 points, or 0.91%, the S&P 500 gaining 9 points, or 0.69% and the Nasdaq Composite rising 17 points or 0.75%. IBM finished the day up 3.91%.
Data today includes, January durable-goods orders, which is expected to have declined 4%, to be released at 8:30 a.m. EST. At 10:00 a.m., new-home sales for January will be reported, again expected to show a decline.
At 10:00 a.m., also, all eyes will be on Fed chief Bernanke as he gives Congress a fresh assessment of the country's economic health when he testifies before the House Financial Services Committee. Of course, the economy has been hurt by a correction in the housing sector, a credit crunch and soaring energy prices. Many would be interested in the balancing act of stimulating the economy while trying to keep somewhat of a lid on the already higher inflation as evidenced from yesterday's PPI report (being just the latest data). If today's weakening dollar is any indication, then investors, at least, expect the Fed to keep on cutting rates.
Continue reading Before the bell: Futures lower ahead of Bernanke testimony
HBO: Internet killed the cable star
It's hard to believe that – not long ago – cable television was a cutting-edge thing. Hey, didn't kids once say: "I want my MTV"?
Now, of course, the new-new thing is online video, especially with the extreme popularity of Google (NASDAQ: GOOG)'s YouTube.
Interestingly enough, we are seeing some movement from the cable players trying to figure out what to do about the broadband revolution (seems kind of late, huh?).
HBO is now making some moves. But, there are some limitations. If you are a subscriber (in certain markets), you can access shows online, though it requires a software download (which means there are pretty tight digital-rights management controls).
Despite all this, it does seem like a good start.
I had a chance to interview Chase Norlin, the CEO of Pixsy, an online video search company. According to him:
"This is a logical move for HBO to utilize their programming as a customer acquisition and retention tool in conjunction with the large MSOs (multiple service operators). Web-based multimedia content becomes another negotiable point between the content owners/producers and the cable operators/distributors. An additional benefit for HBO is the online ad monetization of their content. Expect to see more content owners/producers follow this trend."
Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements
. He also operates DealProfiles.com.
HBO goes PC VOD
Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) movie network HBO will begin testing an online video service. The new project would allow network subscribers to watch programming on their PCs or download them to watch later. According to The Wall Street Journal, "HBO is starting a trial of the service, called HBO Broadband, in Green Bay, Wis., the network says, and could roll it out more widely later this year."
While HBO's brand is well-known among cable subscribers, it is difficult to predict whether this will translate into a large audience online. The amount of premium content available over the internet is growing rapidly as companies like Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) enter the industry. In a field this crowded, newer competitors may have trouble finding audiences.
HBO does have one distinct advantage. Many of the programs on the network are produced for its viewers and are not available elsewhere. This large amount of original content may draw a substantial audience for the new distribution channel.
But the field is getting crowded.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Ten dumbest CEO moves of 2007
Portfolio.com featured its picks for the ten dumbest moves by CEOs in 2007. The list shows a nice range and depth of stupidity on the part of CEOs -- and it hasn't gone unnoticed that there are no women on this list of dummies. Here are their picks and my two cents:
- John Mackey, Whole Foods Market (NASDAQ: WFMI) -- He displayed his brilliance by posting on message boards under the screen name Rahodeb, hyping Whole Foods while not letting people know exactly who it was that was hyping the company. (Seems reminiscent of Patrick Byrne of Overstock.com (NASDAQ: OSTK).) The company ended up banning executives from participating on any message boards.
- Paul Wolfowitz, World Bank -- Getting his girlfriend at the bank a transfer and a raise. Need we say more?
- Steve Jobs, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) -- Ticking off early adopters by slashing $200 off the original price of the $600 iPhone shortly after its debut. Nothing like causing your loyal customers to think twice before they run right out to be the first to buy Apple's next new gadget.
- Chris Albrecht, HBO -- An alleged assault of his girlfriend in Las Vegas ended in his arrest. And then came the news that he did something similar in the early 1990s. Not the kind of headlines you want from your CEO.
HBO to turn Barry Bonds scandal into a movie
Game of Shadows, the controversial bestseller that brought to light detailed allegations of home run king Barry Bonds' involvement with illegal performance-enhancing drugs, is being made into a movie by HBO.Just when Barry Bonds, who recently indicted by a grand jury, thought the negative publicity couldn't get any worse: a made-for-TV movie.
According to the New York Times "Much of the book was based on secret grand jury testimony of Bonds and other athletes leaked to Williams and Fainaru-Wada by Troy Ellerman, a lawyer sentenced to two and a half years in prison for denying under oath he was the reporters' source... The book recounts that Bonds allegedly began using steroids in 1999 after becoming jealous of Mark McGwire's having set baseball's single-season home run record the previous season."
This should be a pretty interesting movie. Remember, Bonds has not been convicted of any crime. And while I'm hardly a fan of Barry Bonds, making a movie based on grand jury testimony that was illicitly leaked to 2 reporters seems unfair. If he ends up being convicted, I would say go for it to the idea of a movie. But it seems premature. After all, even athletes are innocent until proven guilty.
HBO subscriptions increase after 'Sopranos' finale
Some good news has emerged for premium cable network HBO, a unit of Time Warner, Inc. (NYSE: TWX). During the past few years, the channel's high-profile losses of Sex and the City, Six Feet Under, and finally, The Sopranos raised speculation that HBO could be struggling for new hits and new subscribers. But according to the latest subscription figures, the number of HBO faithful has actually risen slightly in the first full quarter since Tony Soprano and his families faded to black in June. The new data shows that HBO's subscriber base rose by 80,000 in its third quarter to 28.94 million, an increase of 0.3%. Monthly subscription fees make up the vast majority of HBO's total revenue, which is expected to hit $3.7 billion this year.
SNL Kagan analyst Deana Myers told Reuters: "It seemed like a lot of people said they were going to cancel HBO after Sopranos ended ... it did seem like it was going to go down." Perhaps the amusing Entourage or the darkly comic Curb Your Enthusiasm have expanding fan bases? Or maybe people hold on to their premium channels for the sports and movie offerings? It could be that folks are just too lazy to call their cable providers. Either way, it's a nice nugget of surprising news for HBO and TWX. Now if we can just work on that writers' strike ...
Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.
'Sex and the City' movie to begin shooting
After years of speculation, rumors and negotiations, a film version of beloved HBO series Sex and the City is set to start shooting in the fall. New Line Cinema, a subsidiary of Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), is said to be near a deal to finance and distribute the picture, and the leading cast is ready to go. All four major players -- Sarah Jessica Parker, the reportedly hardball-playing Kim Cattrall, Kristin Davis, and Cynthia Nixon -- have agreed to reprise their respective roles as Carrie, Samantha, Charlotte, and Miranda. The show's executive producer, Michael Patrick King, is set to write and direct.
When television audiences bid adieu to the ladies in early 2004, things were fairly neatly knotted up (spoiler alert!). Carrie's character had reunited with on-again, off-again love "Mr. Big" (aka "John," as we find out). Samantha was cancer-free and in a healthy relationship with a much younger man; Charlotte and new husband Harry were looking forward to adopting a baby girl; and newlywed Miranda was raising her son with husband Steve and caring for his ailing mother.
One can only speculate where the movie will take the ladies. Will it pick up in real-time, three years after the events of the series finale? Will the foursome's leading men also be back in their roles? Finally, will anyone still care to see 90 minutes into these ladies' lives, now that they are all settled down and monogamous? Michael Patrick King is a fantastic writer of dramedy, and the actresses are a fabulous ensemble. Here's hoping the cosmopolitans continue to flow for one more chapter of their collective tale.
Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.
It's time for Time
Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX ) has been selected as the "undervalued stock of the month" by Paul Tracy, in his StreetAuthority Market Advisor.
The advisor explains, "We think the company's days as an industry laggard are over and we think the company is well-positioned to leverage its valuable assets and unlock shareholder value in the years ahead."
For those unfamiliar with the company's operations, he explains that Time Warner is the largest media conglomerate on the planet. First, he notes, there is AOL, which has built a powerful network of highly-trafficked web sites. He explains, "Its ubiquitous instant messenger service is used to send 1.8 billion messages every day."
Then, he adds, there is Time Warner Cable Inc. (NYSE: TWC), which has grown to become the nation's number two cable provider with a massive base of 15 million customers -- roughly half of whom have signed up for premium services such as digital video or high-speed internet.
The film business, he points out, includes Warner Brothers and New Line Cinema, and has "raked in billions" in global box office revenues from blockbuster hits like Harry Potter and The Lord of the Rings.
In fact, he says, Warner Brothers is planning to bring the Harry Potter world to life, unveiling plans to collaborate on a new theme park based on the "wildly popular" series.
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