Sales and profits are down about 15% at fabled Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG). The classic American Icon is projecting more modest sales going forward and anticipates single digit growth in 2008. Although its profits took a hit, Harley-Davidson did do better than analysts projected. The stock market is getting crushed this morning on higher oil prices now at $90, a continued dismal showings from the financial sector, and a downturn in Caterpillar's projections while it's profits were up 21% in Q3. This all leads many to speculate about a potential recession - not if but when.

I will save the recession topic for another post, but I have not lost faith in Harley's ability to generate strong cash-flow and it will be continuing to buy back shares in the future as it has done in the past when the stock was down. This is becoming more and more common among major companies.

Although I feel strongly about Harley-Davidson's value and have acquired a few shares recently, it is hard to determine an exact price when a stock is a screaming buy and there are many other stocks that also fall into this category right now. On the other hand, the company has been beaten down to a level where I believe there is value and you should at least add it to your watch list. Since the market is looking more and more fragile, there may come a buying opportunity at a level where you are more comfortable. The stock closed at $48.95 yesterday and has been trading down today. For those that are interested in a valuable company for the long term at a great discount, there is much to like about Harley-Davidson.

To find potential opportunities and verify my track record, read Chasing Value or Serious Money.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Chasing Value: Harley-Davidson (HOG) profits down 15% -- beats Wall St. originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 19 Oct 2007 16:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.