The elections are upon us with less than 24 hours before the polls open. Our current president George W. Bush has sat by as the economy went from good to bad to worse and his reputation and political standing went with it.
I have voted Republican and I have voted Democrat. I vote for the person, not the party. As the nation ponders who will be sitting in the Oval Office in 2009 I am quite confident that I am not alone. From day one I have felt that Dubya was in the White House because of dear old dad, the senior being far more qualified than junior. Junior became the front man for ideologues more intent on forcing their will upon others after a very dubious election result than all else.
From what I have seen and read, GWB has never been a great success at anything but politics, and now that reputation is toast too. While history has been kind to some past presidents allowing at least partial redemption -- Truman as direct, honest and a strong leader, Nixon on foreign policy issues, and most recently Carter as a humanitarian -- our current president has little to show for his eight years.
This post is part of a feature on companies and products that our bloggers think are in need of a makeover.See all 26.
Remember Dick Cheney? He hasn't emerged from his spider hole since shooting his buddy in the face at a quail hunt. But last time I was in Washington, I was walking along the street near George Washington University Hospital and suddenly all the cars disappeared and an armada of police cars and black suburbans whizzed by. I was later told that it was Cheney getting his stent checked up.
Prior to his stint in the administration of the 43rd president, It turns out that Cheney's heart beat for Halliburton (NYSE: HAL). In 2004, for example, taxpayers provided Halliburton's KBR subsidiary with $7 billion to provide services in Iraq while it took hundreds of millions of dollars in improper charges. With its 2% profit over costs, the more taxpayer money Halliburton spent, the higher its profits. Fortunately, Halliburton spun off that pesky KBR subsidiary in April 2007.
But it has other problems. The SEC is investigating Halliburton for paying bribes in Nigeria; its KBR subsidiary did a lousy job replacing bolts on an undersea pipeline that will cost Halliburton up to $220 million; the SEC investigated Halliburton for bogus contract revenue accounting; it settled asbestos litigation; a competitor of Hallburton accuses it of antitrust violations; and it received a $108 million judgment for dumping hazardous waste.
Goldman Sachs shook up its ratings on the oil-services sector today, and made a notable adjustment to its "conviction buy" list -- Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) was ousted from the roster in favor of Transocean Inc. (NYSE: RIG). The brokerage firm still maintains a "buy" rating on HAL, but it's pretty obvious that the stock is now playing Jan Brady to RIG's Marcia.
So, why does Goldman prefer RIG to HAL? The former is more strongly levered to oil than the latter -- and, going forward, the analysts expect strong fundamentals and heightened oil prices to support "oilier" stocks. In a note to clients, Goldman said, "... we continue to expect a healthy oil-services spending environment through 2010, supported by low reinvestment rates and secular trends to more complex, high-margin drilling services."
Despite the bullish "buy" ratings on both securities, Goldman tempered its optimism by trimming its price targets on the duo. HAL's forecast was slashed from $63 to $58, while RIG's was trimmed from $189 to $178. The new price targets represent a 44.5% premium from HAL's closing price yesterday, and a 47% increase from RIG's Thursday settlement.
Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) shares are trading higher today after an analyst wrote in the Wall Street Journal over the weekend that despite rises in oil prices, many oil stocks and oil service companies are undervalued based on price/earnings ratios. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on HAL.
After hitting a one-year low of $30.00 in January, the stock hit a one-year high of $55.38 earlier this month. HAL opened this morning at $48.23. So far today the stock has hit a low of $48.23 and a high of $50.08. As of 1:05, HAL is trading at $48.90, up $1.03 (2.1%). The chart for HAL looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $42.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.5% return in just five weeks as long as HAL is above $42.50 at August expiration. Halliburton would have to fall by more than 13% before we would start to lose money.
HAL hasn't been below $44 at all since April and has shown support around $45 recently. This trade could be risky if the price of oil drops off in the coming month, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find around $45 where it formed a bottom in early May.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in HAL.
The need for oil drilling services will continue even if the price of oil declines, according to Richard Lehmann. Here, in his The ETF Investor, he looks at a favorite way for investors to play this trend.
"Oil prices have a triple or quadruple price boost associated with them. The first is supply/demand dynamics, the second is the weak dollar, the third is speculative fervor and the fourth inflation fears.
"A pundit said that last year it took 65 Euros to buy a barrel of oil and today it still takes 65 Euros to buy a barrel of oil. This illustrates the effect the weak dollar is having on U.S. prices and the international price of oil.
"Inflation protection used to be the province of gold, but now it seems oil is serving a similar function. We think the current oil bubble has not run its course.
"One of our past recommendations, the Oil Service Holders Trust (NYSE: OIH), was first suggested in February 2006 at a price of $101.50. We recommended it again in December 2007 at a price of $179.83.
CNNMoney reports that oil closed up a record $11 a barrel today -- closing at $138. Can $200 a barrel be far off?
As I posted, this record price spike could have something to do with speculators' fear that they will no longer be able to take advantage of the swaps loophole the gives them unlimited ability to control the oil market. Perhaps rumors that regulators will close the loophole are scaring speculators to buy up as much oil as they can before the loophole closes.
Or it could be a plunge in the dollar. As I posted, the European central banks are talking about raising interest rates further to fight inflation. But the Fed is only talking about inflation and not doing anything about it. The dollar has lost 70% of its value since January 2001. With oil trading in dollars, it's taking more and more of them to buy a barrel of oil.
After hitting a one-year low of $30.00 in January, the stock has hit a new one-year high today. HAL opened this morning at $49.74. So far today the stock has hit a low of $49.61 and a high of $51.12. As of 12:40, HAL is trading at $50.01, up 71 cents (1.4%). The chart for HAL looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $45 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 13.6% return in just six weeks as long as HAL is above $45 at July expiration. HAL would have to fall by more than 9% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
HAL hasn't been below $45 by more than a few cents since early April and has shown support around $48 recently. This trade could be risky if the price of oil heads lower, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find around $45 where it formed a bottom over the past two months.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in HAL.
The Wall Street Journal also reported that the oil industry and some U.S. lawmakers are looking to end long-standing bans on domestic drilling put in place to protect areas that are environmentally-sensitive, fueled by concerns about global energy.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Citigroup Incorporated's (NYSE: C) former chairman and CEO Sandy Weill acknowledged that choosing Chuck Prince as his successor in 2003 turned out not to be the "right thing" for the company and was flawed. Instead of handing the job to Prince, Weill said the board should have fostered competition among the bank's top managers for the job.
OTHER PAPERS:
According to the Washington Post, MedImmune, a unit of drug giant AstraZeneca Plc (NYSE: AZN),settled with Genentech Inc (NYSE: DNA) a lawsuit over a patented component of its best-selling drug Synagis, which is aimed at preventing respiratory infections in infants. No details of the settlement were provided.
The Telegraph also reported that U.K.-based Imperial Tobacco Group Plc (NYSE: ITY) could conduct a GBP5B rights issue this week. The company has suggested that it needs the funds in order to retain its investment-grade credit rating following its acquisition of Altadis.
WEB SITES:
According toBloomberg, regulatory filings show that banks such as Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) are failing to acknowledge at $35B of additional writedowns in their income statements.
The drug maker posted net income of $3.3 billion, or $1.52 per share, for the January-March period, up from $1.7 billion, or 78 cents a share, a year ago. Excluding one-time items, Merck earned 89 cents per share, beating by three cents the forecast of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial.
Revenues totaled $5.82 billion, up 1% from $5.77 billion in the first three months of 2007, but below analysts' expectations of $6.11 billion. The company attributed the slow sales growth to the weak U.S. dollar.
Merck shares fell Monday 13 cents, to close at $39.63. Shares are down 23% in the past year.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Semiconductors, ADC Telecomm and Nationwide Financial were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Banc of America upgraded the Semiconductor Sector to Overweight from Market Weight citing indications of a bottom given earnings estimate revision momentum and supply chain inventory levels. The firm upgraded Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), Power Integrations (NASDAQ:POWI) and Semtech (NASDAQ:SMTC) to Buy from Neutral and PMC Sierra (NASDAQ:PMCS) and LSI Corp (NYSE:LSI) to Neutral from Sell.
Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of ADC Telecomm (NASDAQ:ADCT) to Buy from Hold as they believe April consensus estimates could prove conservative.
UBS raised Nationwide Financial (NYSE::NFS) to Buy from Neutral and believes a higher offer by Nationwide Mutual is likely.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
Westlate Chemical (NYSE:WLK) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Cott Corp, Hartford Financial, Allstate and Valero Energy were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Lehman upgraded Cott Corp (NYSE: COT) to Equal Weight from Underweight citing recent management changes, a focus on CSD business, and new product discipline.
Bernstein believes the entire non-life insurance group is oversold and that it is time to buy; the firm upgraded Hartford Financial (NYSE: HIG) and Allstate (NYSE: ALL) to Outperform from Market Perform.
Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) was raised to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank on valuation with the stock trading at a -30% discount to NAV while the asset market for U.S. refineries is strong.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman added Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) to its Conviction Buy List.
The president's concern struck me as odd because most folks having an IQ higher than their age would probably agree that President Bush overreacted in Iraq, and underreacted at home. Thus increasing the probability that we would fall into an economic quagmire that the best and brightest would have difficulty escaping.
I think I am being very generous when I say "increasing the probability" because many on the left and on the right of the political spectrum would be much more frank and say Dubya, you own this one pal!
That being said, one might argue that Bush has his rights and his lefts mixed up, as well as his rights and his wrongs. I happen to agree with the president that the federal government could overreact (and has) and do the wrong things -- with bipartisan support no doubt. For example I think the $156 billion tax rebate is very bad policy, not helping anyone and hurting everyone -- see Serious Money: Stimulate productivity not consumption. I hope anybody reading that particular Serious Money post finds it worthy of starting an e-mail storm because not enough folks understand this point.
The elections are upon us with less than 24 hours before the polls open. Our current president George W. Bush has sat by as the economy went from good to bad to worse and his reputation and political standing went with it.
This post is part of a feature on companies and products that our bloggers think are in need of a makeover. 
Goldman Sachs shook up its 
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