The oil market breathed a minor sigh of relief Thursday after Saudi Arabia said there would be no replay of 1973-74 regarding the current Middle East crisis.

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said oil "isn't a weapon" to end the conflict between Hamas and Israel, Bloomberg News reported. Prince al-Faisal said oil can't reverse the conflict, countering a call by OPEC-hawk Iran that Arab states stop producing oil as a way to pressure countries supporting Israel.

Oil continued its recent downward trek Thursday morning on the news, falling $1.58 to $41.05 per barrel. Oil hit an all-time of $147.27 per barrel in the summer of 2008.

In 1973, the Arab members of OPEC implemented an oil embargo against the United States in response to the U.S.'s decision to re-supply Israel's military during the Yom Kippur War, which Israel won. The price of oil subsequently quintupled from about $20 per barrel to about $100 per barrel in 2009 dollars (or from about $3 per barrel to $13 per barrel in 1974 dollars), creating the world's first oil shock, and triggering a U.S. recession.

The other major energy commodities also declined early Thursday. Heating oil fell 2 cents to $1.54 per gallon, unleaded gasoline decreased 3 cents to $1.07 cents per gallon, and natural gas dipped 5 cents to $5.92 per million BTUs.

Oil prices have dropped sharply today as traders focus on increased demand concerns following this week's oil inventory report.

Going into today's inventory report, analysts were expecting to see an increase in oil reserves of around 1.5 million barrels. However, the market was shocked to see that the actual increase last week was well above that figure, as the Energy Information Agency announced that inventories grew by 6.7 million barrels.

The result? Oil prices have dropped over 9% in today's market, falling $4.54, down to $44.04.

Oil surged 12% to $42.20 per barrel early Monday, before easing some to $40.24, as Israeli jets continued to knock out Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip.

Energy Trader Jim Dietz said the raids, aimed at destroying rockets fired by Hamas into Israel and eliminating other Hamas strongholds, have the capacity to change the oil market's dynamic, if a cease-fire cannot be reached or if the conflict escalates.

"It certainly can be a game-changer regarding the oil market. We're likely to move higher obviously on geopolitical tension, but at this stage it's too soon to tell if there will be a unified response from oil producing nations in the Middle East or other ramifications," Dietz said.

The other major energy commodities also jumped on the Israel / Hamas conflict early Monday. Heating oil rose 7 cents to $1.32 per gallon, unleaded gasoline increased 6 cents to 91 cents per gallon, and natural gas gained 17 cents to $6.00 per million BTUs.

Yesterday, I was pleased to pay $1.66 for mid-grade gasoline and I was wondering whether it would drop further or rise. But now I have an answer -- Israeli attacks in Gaza Strip are enriching the oil-producing countries that surround it. More specifically, oil prices have increased $3 a barrel to more than $40, while the price of gold is up 2% to $881.85 -- a 30% rise above its 13-month low two months ago.

Will the violence in the Middle East continue? If so, for how long? My guess is that Israel is planning a ground war which will last for several weeks -- the timing of the move takes advantage of the transition of power between Bush and Obama and posturing before January's Israeli election.

In the meantime, the key question for investors is whether they should buy energy stocks -- they will almost certainly rise today and will continue to go up as long as the possibility remains of escalation -- in the form of an military or economic attack, such as an oil embargo, on Israel and Western interests from other Middle Eastern countries. If there is an escalation, we could see a big spike in oil prices which would help energy investors.

But that could cause an even deeper economic slowdown which would cause oil prices to collapse even more once the violence ends.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College. His eighth book, You Can't Order Change: Lessons From Jim McNerney's Turnaround at Boeing, was published by Portfolio on December 26, 2008

U.S. stock market futures gained at the start of the last trading week of the year. The rally may be short-lived given that many traders have taken the week between Christmas and New Year's off. Stock markets in Europe and Asia advanced as well.

Oil prices are rising amidst growing worries about the clash between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. In early trading today, oil topped $40 as the death toll in the clash reached 300. Whether the conflict will boost prices at the pump remains to be seen. Members of OPEC are expected to cut production further to boost prices, which are down more than 70 percent since July. Prices may fall further as the economic slowdown further erodes demand.

Meanwhile, faith in the global economy was further undermined by the decision Sunday of Kuwait's government to cancel a $17.4 billion joint venture with Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW). Shares of the Michigan-based company and Rohm & Haas Co. (NYSE: ROH), which Dow agreed to buy earlier this year for $15.4 billion, fell in pre-market action.

GMAC has given no word about whether bondholders approved a debt exchange program that would give the financing arm of General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) with access to the $700 billion financial bailout program for financial institutions.

After last week's gains in oil, we had another strong day today to get the week started right where we left off on Friday. Oil traded up $1.04 today to close the session at $69.04 after setting a high earlier in the session at $69.15.

As I wrote on Friday, oil has been bullish lately due to a couple key factors; mainly low refinery production and international violence. Well, just when you thought that things couldn't get worse, they do. Today we get news of additional violence in Nigeria and yesterday we saw a 2 rocket attack on Israel which is now being blamed on a Palestinian group.

Let's remember that is was a war between Israel and Hezbollah last summer that helped push oil up to the $80 mark. Yesterday on the news it looked as though Hezbollah may have been the party that fired yesterday's missiles, an act which could easily have sent the two parties back into war. For now it looks like Hezbollah was not to blame, but it definitely brought back memories of last summer's bloody war.

Yesterday in Nigeria rebels attacked a flow station belonging to Eni SpA (NYSE: E) and took a dozen workers hostage during the raid. Things in Nigeria have been volatile for some time now, with the recent outbreak in violence coming after the April Presidential elections that left many citizens claiming a rigged outcome. Since that time the government has lifted prices on automobile fuel which has Nigerian oil unions now threatening a strike starting this Wednesday.

It has been yet another strong day for oil today, continuing yesterday's impressive gains. Yesterday oil was able to move up $1.44 a barrel and today traders have pushed the precious crude up another $0.46 to lift prices up to $68.11.

Today's move really shouldn't be much of a surprise to our readers, as we discussed yesterday, there is a perfect storm taking place right now for rising oil prices. We have several factors that are all pointing to even higher prices in the days to come.

Let's highlight the key points that are creating the current bullish oil market:

1. Violence between the Palestinian Authority's Fatah party and Hamas
2. Tensions between Iran and the West regarding its nuclear ambitions
3. Weak American refinery capacities

Those are the big three factors right now that are weighing on trader's minds. I will not rehash the details of each of the above three scenarios, but you can get my take on all of the above in my post yesterday on this topic. Basically, what we are looking at is the perfect environment to see prices continue to rise.

How much higher do I think we are going to see oil prices move? I have never claimed to see the future so I would hate to put a target on where I see things progressing, but I think it is highly likely that we are going to watch prices slowly move up to the mid $70's by the end of this month and would not be at all surprised to see $80 oil once again this summer. Also bear in mind that today we will see the front running futures expire and next week the August futures will take their place. This will create an artificial jump in prices of probably around a dollar, perhaps even more depending on what we see happening over the weekend.