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Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: GOOG, HOG, NOK, SWY, WAG, WSM ...

Analyst upgrades:

  • Keefe Bruyette upgraded Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) to Outperform from Market Perform on expectations that derivatives trading will increase in the coming quarters.
  • NutriSystem (NASDAQ: NTRI) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Janney Montgomery, which believes that the company's earnings have hit bottom, while the company could report better-than-expected Q1 results.
  • Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) was upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital. The firm thinks the company is an early-cycle story that has significant upside potential.
  • UBS upgraded Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) to Buy from Neutral citing cost cutting efforts and slowing store growth.
  • Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Benchmark Co.
  • Safeway (NYSE: SWY) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by BB&T.
  • Needham upgraded Targacept (NASDAQ: TRGT) to Buy from Hold.
  • Sierra Wireless (NASDAQ: SWIR) was raised to Buy from Hold at Jesup & Lamont.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: GOOG, HOG, NOK, SWY, WAG, WSM ...

Earnings preview: Has Harley-Davidson turned around?

Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG), cultural icon and a leader in sales of high-end motorcycles, is scheduled to discuss its third quarter 2009 financial results in a conference call Thursday at 9:00 AM ET, hosted by CEO Keith Wandell and CFO John Olin. You can catch the live webcast of the call on the company's website.

During three months that ended in September, Harley-Davidson celebrated the 40th anniversary of Easy Rider, rolled out new models for 2010, and appointed a new CFO. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect this Milwaukee-based, dividend-paying company to report that earnings fell 70.4% from a year ago to $0.21 per share, but that's up 61.9% from the second quarter. Sales for the third quarter are expected to be 22.6% lower than a year ago to $1.1 billion.

Continue reading Earnings preview: Has Harley-Davidson turned around?

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AIG, DFS, ERIC, GE, HOG, SYMC ...

Analyst upgrades:

  • Bernstein upgraded Lincoln National (NYSE: LNC) to Outperform from Market Perform based on relative valuation and expectations the company will repay TARP without a capital raise. The firm raised its target to $34 from $26.
  • Thomas Weisel upgraded Ticketmaster (NASDAQ: TKTM) to Overweight from Market Weight and raised its target to $12 from $8 citing dynamic ticket pricing and the potential merger with Live Nation (NYSE: LYV).
  • Citigroup upgraded Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) to Hold from Sell after channel checks indicated retail sales have improved since Q2. The firm raised its target on shares to $26 from $14.
  • McDermott (NYSE: MDR) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
  • Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank.
  • General Electric (NYSE: GE) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AIG, DFS, ERIC, GE, HOG, SYMC ...

Harley-Davidson not riding too much higher according to analyst

According to recent analyst opinion, Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) is a business you should be wary of buying right now. This item reports on a reduction in the price target for the maker of the iconic motorcycle. Edward Aaron over at RBC Capital Markets thinks that earnings and demand won't be great for the company; he slashed his belief of what the shares are worth by $2 to $16 per share.

Harley-Davidson has certainly recovered from its 52-week low made back in March of this year. The stock bounced back from $7.99 to a price of $16.55 as of this writing.

Continue reading Harley-Davidson not riding too much higher according to analyst

Earnings highlights: Goldman Sachs, Google, Citigroup, GE, Intel, Nokia and more

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Goldman Sachs, Google, Citigroup, GE, Intel, Nokia and more

Harley-Davidson earnings report

The venerable Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) sputtered through another dismal quarter as reported today. Even Warren Buffett's recent vote of confidence in the form of purchasing $300 million of HOG debt wasn't enough to pretty up a year/year decline in worldwide sales of 12%, and sales this quarter last year were well below the previous year. The company did ship 3.9% more bikes to dealers than in 2008, when dealers were sitting on large stocks of unsold units, but it anticipates shipping 10-13% fewer bikes overall in 2009 than 2008.

Domestic sales dropped 9.7%. Diluted earning reported were $.50, below analyst expectations and down from $.79 Q1 of 2008. Revenue for the quarter was $1.01 billion, down only $2.7 million from same quarter 2008. General merchandise, usually a steady cash-generator for the company, also fell by 10.5% from a year ago.

Continue reading Harley-Davidson earnings report

The week in preview: The new earnings season ramps up

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) started off the new earnings season with disappointing results that helped to stifle the recent rally. Was that enough of a sign of what's to come? No, probably not. But the earnings reports start to fly in earnest this week, which should provide a more detailed picture of the state of things.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters anticipate that some of the biggest names will prove to be holding their own. Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is expected to post a profit of $4.91 per share, marginally higher than a year ago, and Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE: JNJ) expected $1.22 per share profit is slightly lower year over year. Even Mattel Inc.'s (NYSE: MAT) estimated loss of $0.13 per share is the same as in the year-ago period.

Continue reading The week in preview: The new earnings season ramps up

Options Update: Harley-Davidson volatility up into EPS and new management outlook

Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) closed at $17.10. HOG named Keith Wandell as president and CEO, succeeding James Ziemer who is retiring. Wandell is currently COO and Pres of Johnson Controls (NYSE-JCI). HOG is expected to report Q1 EPS on April 16. HOG, April option implied volatility is at 100; April is at 97; above its 26-week average of 87, according to Track Data, suggesting larger movement.

NASDAQ 100-QQQQ overall implied volatility at 38; 26-week average is 43.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Buffett says buy, then sells, Roubini says wait -- what's an investor to do?

Late last year my colleague Joseph Lazzaro posted a story about NYU's 'Dr. Doom' Roubini: Stocks may fall another 20% during recession. That has to make one take pause when considering an investment in the stock market today, even after a major drop retesting November lows this week. On the other hand, Warren Buffett went out of his way to encourage the investing public and money managers alike that it was safe to go back into the market.

However, today it has been widely reported that Buffett sold off half of his holdings in Johnson & Johnson and trimmed his stake in Procter & Gamble.

Continue reading Buffett says buy, then sells, Roubini says wait -- what's an investor to do?

HOG slaughtered: Harley Davidson profit falls 58%

Harley Davidson (NYSE: HOG) profit fell 58% in the fourth quarter as the U.S. slowdown caused demand to shrink here and overseas.

Harley sales and profits are shrinking. Its sales fell 6.8% to $1.29 billions and its net income fell 58% to $77.8 million, or 34 cents a share. Analysts expected earnings to be 23% higher, or 57 cents a share on sales of $1.29 billion. For the same period in 2007, it earned $186.1 million, or 78 cents a share.

Harley is taking action -- including plant closures that would result in 1,100 workers losing their jobs. Specifically, it plans to consolidate two engine and transmission plants in Milwaukee into another Wisconsin facility. It will shrink its paint and frame operations at its York, PA plant and close a distribution facility in Franklin, WI. Harley also plans to end its domestic transportation fleet, and to cut shipments between 10% and 13% in 2009.

It's clear that fewer people can borrow or otherwise afford a new Harley -- with its stock down 70% in the last year, the HOG slaughter is likely to continue.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

The week in preview: Financials, techs lead off earnings crunch

I think it's fair to say that there's much trepidation about the earnings season that picks up steam this week. And for better or worse, numbers from the big financials have begun to roll in. Last week we saw profit sink for JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and significant losses from Bank of American Corp. (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), and Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB).

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (NYSE: BK) to be among those financials reporting fourth-quarter earnings growth this week. They anticipate that Bank of New York will post a profit of $0.70 per share, compared to $0.67 per share a year ago and $0.72 in the previous quarter. Revenue is expected come to $3.8 billion, about the same as it was a year ago. Bank of New York has fallen short of earnings estimates in two of the past five quarters, by as much as 11.1%. For the full year, analysts are looking for $2.78 per share (+5.8%) on $14.8 billion (+4.2%). The consensus recommendation of analysts is to buy BK, and the long-term EPS growth rate forecast is 10.7%. Shares are 48.7% lower than a year ago. Other financials expected to report quarterly earnings growth this week include SunTrust Banks Inc. (NYSE: STI) and M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE: MTB).

Continue reading The week in preview: Financials, techs lead off earnings crunch

Analyst calls: SNV, BASFY, AKZOY, FUL, GA, WLT, AHD, OZM, HOG, MRK

Analyst upgrades:
  • Friedman Billings upgraded Synovus (NYSE: SNV) to Market Perform from Underperform on valuation following the recent weakness. BASF (OTC: BASFY) and Akzo Nobel (OTC: AKZOY) were upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS on valuation and believes cash flows can cover the company's dividend.
  • JP Morgan upgraded H.B. Fuller (NYSE: FUL) to Overweight from Neutral citing benefits from lower raw material costs.
  • CA, Inc (NASDAQ: CA) was added to Goldman's Conviction Buy List.
  • Goldman removed Boeing (NYSE: BA) from the Conviction Sell List.
  • WABCO Holdings (NYSE: WBC) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc.
Analyst downgrades:
  • Oppenheimer downgraded Giant Interactive (NYSE: GA) to Perform from Outperform following the company's Q3 results as they believe a recovery of revenue from ZT Online will take longer than expected.
  • Friedman Billings cut Walter Industries (NYSE: WLT) to Market Perform from Outperform as they believe the decline in steel demand will pressure met coal prices. The company's target was lowered to $30 from $53.
  • Citigroup downgraded shares of Atlas Pipeline (NYSE: AHD) Holdings to Sell from Hold as they believe the company could potentially be in violation of its debt covenants as early as Q1. The company's target was lowered to $4 from $31.
  • Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) was removed from Goldman's Conviction Buy List.
  • Dover (NYSE: DOV) and Emerson Electric (NYSE: EMR) were downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
Analyst initiations:

Continue reading Analyst calls: SNV, BASFY, AKZOY, FUL, GA, WLT, AHD, OZM, HOG, MRK

Earnings highlights: Google, JPMorgan, Coca-Cola, eBay, Intel and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Google, JPMorgan, Coca-Cola, eBay, Intel and others

Harley-Davidson: Avoid for now

Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) did not have a great third quarter. If you check out the motorcycle-maker's press release, you'll see that management puts all the bad data right in the lead paragraph, with no spin whatsoever. Revenues: down almost 8% to $1.4 billion. Net income on a dollar basis: down 37% to about $167 million. The bottom line on a diluted per-share basis: down close to 34%, coming in at $0.71. Down, down, down.

And is it surprising? No. Consumers aren't really looking for that second chopper these days, I don't think. Although Harley-Davidson is built to leverage the midlife crisis that many men go through when they reach middle age, I doubt that the crisis many middle-aged men are going through currently is purely life-related. I'd be willing to bet it is a crisis based on a hellishly large loss of confidence in the security of their golden years fueled by the declining total value of their retirement accounts. In a world where companies like Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM) are having a hard time moving inventory, you can bet that it's not a walk in the park for a manufacturer of motorcycles.

Continue reading Harley-Davidson: Avoid for now

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 06:49 AM

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