Continue reading Closing Bell: Bulls start getting drunk (MO, AIG, BA, C, HOG, IMMU)

Closing Bell: Bulls start getting drunk (MO, AIG, BA, C, HOG, IMMU) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 27 Aug 2009 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Gallery: Time for a HOG?

Harley Davidson museum aims to be one big biker rally originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 16 Jul 2008 18:38:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Harley-Davidson Inc.

Continue reading Harley-Davidson announces job cuts and idle plants

Harley-Davidson announces job cuts and idle plants originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 17 Apr 2008 17:59:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Gallery: Harley Davidson Views and Hues

Expect a glut of HOGs originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 28 Feb 2008 13:42:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"You don't need to be a motorcycle enthusiast to be familiar with the powerful Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) brand name," notes Nathan Slaughter in his Half-Priced Stocks newsletter.

"In fact," he adds, "Harley-Davidson doesn't have a single major U.S-based competitor -- something very few companies can claim."

The value investor explains, "For those that do enjoy riding on the open road, Harley-Davidson is practically a lifestyle unto itself. With over 1,300 dealerships in 60 countries around the world, the firm has carved out an impressive share of the heavyweight motorcycle market and delivered record revenues for 20 consecutive years."

Slaughter continues, "Founded in 1903, the company now boasts over one million members in the Harley Owners Group (HOG) and enjoys an intensely loyal customer base that few rivals have been able to penetrate.

"And like other companies with entrenched brand names, Harley-Davidson is able to command premium prices for its products. As a result, margins have expanded dramatically and earnings have consistently outpaced revenues -- climbing 23% annually over the past decade.

"This built-in competitive advantage also shows up in lofty returns on capital that currently stand above 30%. Better still, the shareholder-friendly management team isn't shy about returning excess cash to shareholders. In fact, the company repurchased 19.3 million shares last year, and dividends have been hiked in each of the past 13 years.

Continue reading Harley Davidson: High on the HOG

Harley Davidson: High on the HOG originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 19 Nov 2007 09:58:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) to Buy from Neutral on valuation, and is positive on the company's free cash flow generation.
  
• Wachovia raised Paccar Inc. (NASDAQ: PCAR) estimates to Market Perform from Underperform based on better-than-expected European performance.
  
• Citigroup upgraded shares of Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ: PSUN) to Buy from Hold as they believe the demo division divestiture and improving product execution in core PacSun stores could drive accelerating EPS growth.
  
• Citigroup also upgraded shares of Talbots Inc. (NYSE: TLB) to Hold from Sell on valuation but remains concerned about the company's long-term outlook.
  
• Roth Capital upgraded RightNow Technologies (NASDAQ: RNOW) to Buy from Hold, as they are encouraged by RNOW's Q3 results and raised guidance and believes the worst is behind the company.

• Goldman added Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) to its Conviction Buy List.
  
• Thomas Weisel upgraded Akamai (NADAQ: AKAM) to Overweight from Market Weight.
  
• Lehman upgraded Harley Davidson (NYSE: HOG) to Equal Weight from Underweight.
  
• Gabelli upgraded Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) to Hold from Sell.

Analyst upgrades: MOT, PCAR, PSUN, TLB and RNOW originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 25 Oct 2007 10:59:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

• Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) -- Q3 guidance
• National Semconductor Corporation (NYSE: NSM) -- Q1 earnings
• Western Digital Corporation (NYSE: WDC) -- Q1 guidance

• Texas Instruments Inc (NYSE: TXN) -- Q3 guidance

• Staples Inc (NASDAQ: SPLS) -- Q2 earnings, Q3 guidance
• Office Depot Inc (NYSE: ODP) -- Q2 earnings
• Harley Davidson Inc (NYSE: HOG) -- 2H2007 guidance
• Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE: WY) -- Q3 guidance

A recap of recent earnings and guidance originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 12 Sep 2007 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) volatility at 29 as the company announced it reduces motorcycle shipment & EPS guidance.

HOG is recently trading at $48.80 in pre-open trading, below its close of $54.09. HOG lowered motorcycle shipment and financial guidance. HOG sees 2007 EPS of $3.69-$3.77 vs. consensus of $4.12. Jim Ziemer, CEO of HOG, says ,"this is a difficult time for the U.S. consumer." HOG September option implied volatility of 29 was near its 26-week average of 27 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price risks.

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (AMEX: GDX) volatility elevated as gold trades above $700.

GDX seeks to replicate the performance of gold and silver mining companies represented in the Amex Gold Miners Index. GDX closed at $40.95. Gold is up 0.33% to $706.90 according to Bloomberg. GDX option volume of 20,596 contracts was heavy on 9/6/07. GDX over all option implied volatility of 37 is above its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

General Motors (NYSE: GM) October volatility up into UAW 9/14 contract deadline.

GM closed at $31.07. The UAW's current four-year contract with all three automakers is set to expire on September 14. Goldman Sachs says, "cutting estimates, target goes to $37; retain Buy on UAW talks." GM September option implied volatility is at 43; October is at 47; above its 26-week average of 41 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option update: HOG reduces motorcycle shipment & EPS guidance originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 07 Sep 2007 09:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Barron's Online's (subscription required) "Weekday Trader" wrote that there is currently little to get revved up about with Harley Davidson Inc (NYSE: HOG), as its fundamentals have deteriorated, leaving little upside for the stock over the next year, according to Citigroup Analyst Greg Badishkanian.
• The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported that Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE: BMY) will name James Cornelius, who has been interim CEO since last September, as the permanent CEO of the company.
• Comcast Corp (NASDAQ: CMCSA) is pushing into Web TV, a space currently being dominated by Google Inc's (NASDAQ: GOOG) YouTube, reported the Wall Street Journal.

• According to the Detroit Free Press, Chrysler Group suitors must submit new bids next week to make the cut and continue talks with DaimlerChrsyler AG (NYSE: DCX); one or two "preferred bidders" are expected to emerge.
• The L.A. Times reported that employees of Fremont General Corp (NYSE: FMT) are suing over losses on company stock in their retirement plans which they say should have been foreseen and prevented.

Newspaper wrap-up 4-26-07: Bristol-Myers makes Cornelius permanent CEO originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 26 Apr 2007 09:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

By focusing on stocks that are buying back their own shares, David Fried has developed a model portfolio that has gained 184% since inception in August 2000, versus a loss of 1.2% in the S&P 500 over the same time period.

In his The Buyback Letter, he looks at two of his newest holdings, both of which are American icons - Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) and Mattel (NYSE: MAT).

In addition to having one of the most recognizable brand names in the world, he notes Harley-Davidson's less-recognized but equally strong asset is its Harley Owners Group -- or H.O.G. - with over 1 million members around the globe. Further, he notes, even those who can't or don't ride Harley's still own the accessories, collectibles and sport the Harley brand clothing.

Fried explains, "With two decades of uninterrupted growth, year 2006 looked breezy. Revenue for the full year was $5.80 billion, an 8.6% increase. Net income for the year was $1.04 billion, an 8.7% increase. During the most recent 10-year period, compound annual growth rates for revenue and earnings have been better than 14% and 24%, respectively."

Even more important that its increasing sales, Fried notes that the company continues to return value to its shareholders, pointing to a 22.5% increase in dividends and the repurchase of 19.3 million shares last year. In fact, he notes, the company has reduced its amount of outstanding shares buy 5.6% over the past 12 months.

With growth forecasted in the range of 11%-17% a year through 2009, Fried says, "To us, Harley-Davidson looks like it still has room to run."

Also new to Fried's buy list is another "American icon" -- Mattel, the largest toymaker in the world. The advisor notes, "At 50 years old, Barbie has had her ups and downs (haven't we all!), but she is still going strong as the most popular fashion doll ever introduced."

Indeed, he points out, Barbie sales were up 43% in 2006, spurred by new products such as a new electronic version that can dance as well as a new Barbie head with hair that can be styled. Fried jests, "Barbie survived her very public breakup with Ken a few years ago...there is no doubt she will bounce back as she reinvents herself."

Meanwhile, the advisor points out that Mattel is about more than Barbie, pointing to such best-selling brands as TMX Elmo, Hot Wheels, Matchbox, and the Fisher-Price lines.

In addition, he notes, this past summer Mattel began selling 'Cars' branded toys, based on characters from the popular animated Disney film. The third quarter also was the third consecutive quarter that domestic Barbie sales rose.

Finally, he is attracted to the stock by the fact that the company has has reduced its shares outstanding by 5.5% in the last 12 months.

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a free daily overview of the latest stock picks from the nation's leading financial newsletters.

American Icons: Harley and Mattel originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 06 Feb 2007 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

• The 96th Annual National Retail Federation Conference will be held in N.Y.
• The North American International Auto Show 2007 will be held in Detroit.

• US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) will report Q4 earnings, conference call at 2pm. The bank is expected to report solid EPS but declining revenue. Wall Street will be looking to evaluate USB's comments on where it sees the U.S. economy heading in 2007.
• American Power Conversion (NASDAQ: APCC) will hold a special shareholder meeting at 2pm to vote on the proposed merger with Schneider Electric.

• Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) will report Q1 2007 earnings, conference call at 5pm. Investors and analysts will be looking for further details and clarification on the iPhone, and will also be looking to see how much progress the company's Macs are making against rival PCs.
• Monsanto Company (NYSE: MON) will hold its annual investor meeting at 3pm in St. Louis. Investors will be waiting to hear any news on the merger with Delta & Pine Land (NYSE: DLP), which was announced last August, but has been delayed by antitrust concerns.

• Harley Davidson Inc (NYSE: HOG) will report its Q4 2006 earnings, conference call at 9am. The focus of the report will be the company's inventory, order backlog and its ability to keep up with customer demand. Wall Street will also be looking at Harley Davidson's ability to reduce the time it takes to get new motorcycles to market.

• Motorola, Inc (NYSE: MOT) will report its Q4 2006 earnings, conference call at 7:30am. Investors will look to see if Motorola's earnings release does anything to ease concerns brought on by two recent downgrades, from Buy to Neutral/Hold, one which claimed "uncertainty over U.S. market share trends in 2007."

Market highlights for next week: Apple reporting Q1 earnings Wednesday originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 12 Jan 2007 16:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Enterprise zone tax credits for Harley Davidson Motor Company (NYSE: HOG) in the amount of $4.5 million have been approved by the Wisconsin Department of Commerce. With the full involvement of Wisconsin state government and the United Steel Workers Union, this tax credit was arranged to confirm Harley Davidson's intent to invest some $300 million in the expansion of engine and transmission manufacturing in the state of Wisconsin. It is expected that this growth could create up to 200 new high paying manufacturing jobs and will assist in the retention of Harley's 4,100 existing employees in the state.

Harley Davidson was considering expanding outside of Wisconsin but left the door open to stay at Harley's home in Menomonee Falls. The company has always sought home-based solutions first. The administration of Governor Jim Doyle claims it was hard work to get Harley to accept the state tax credits but historically that has not been the pattern. All Harley Davidson has ever asked for is a level playing field.

I'll believe that it was hard work for Doyle to give it to them... when Hogs fly!

Harley Davidson is staying home originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Dec 2006 11:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I was checking up on OMI, an oil tanker company mentioned favorably in Barron's (subscription required) a few weeks ago. It has been on my watch list for quite a while. So I typed "OMI" into the quote search, only to get a leading distributor of medical and surgical supplies-- that's not right. Then I remember the company I was interested in goes by the ticker OMM-- now that's better.

It seems like symbol confusion happens to me about once a month. Harley Davidson (HDI) is changing its symbol to HOG (see Harley Davidson - HDI will be HOG - and living high!) This will add a little confusion for a while, but I bet there are millions of people that have looked up HDI, but who actually wanted Home Depot, ticker HD.

Another one I have remembered wrong in the past is Alcoa Aluminum which uses 'AA' for it's stock ticker symbol. This makes sense, but what comes to mind first is American Airlines, which uses 'AA' for their logo, website (AA.com), and in most promotional material, and is actually AMR. 'AA - American Airlines' is also used as a slang term for a pair of aces in the hole in hold-em poker. 'WM' is Washington Mutual, not Waste Management which is 'WMI', or Wal-Mart which is 'WMT'

I'm sure ticker confusion is a common enough occurrence and that most of the time investors find the correct stock ticker for the company in which they are interested. Still, with so many millions of trades daily and so many of them done on low cost on-line trading sites by people with limited experience, I wonder how often someone does not catch the mistake.

Anyone else have ticker confusion or trades that they wanted busted due to ticker error? It's always worth double-checking before confirming a trade.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for Design and Research of an Architecture & Planning firm.

Double-check ticker symbols, OR you might be sorry originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 14 Aug 2006 15:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Get your motors running! On Tuesday, August 15, Harley Davidson (HDI) will change its ticker symbol to "HOG." HOG is the acronym for the Harley Owners Group, but this was adopted long after the term was a nickname for the bikes world wide. No doubt the change in ticker symbol will serve as a form of brand extension, which Harley excels at better than most.

I can think of many companies like Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Starbucks, Disney, FedEx, Porsche, McDonald's, Yahoo, eBay, Google, J&J, GE, and on and on that have strong brands that have been extended to every kind of merchandise and promotion imaginable. However, very few end up tattooed on someone's body. J&J, don't think so. Yahoo not yet. Google, maybe it's coming. For Harley Davidson it is common. The only thing I can think of that comes close is Snoopy and Micky Mouse, but they may be fading and HDI, I mean HOG, is still growing and strengthening its brand like few others. Could they be influenced by GOOG's symbol, whose brand is growing by leaps and bounds -- that might be a stretch.

So this week when the HOG's invade the market they will be riding high, and that includes their stock price, which is approaching an all-time high. Even more incredible, the company's fundamentals are looking good and do not appear to be topping out!

Continue reading Harley Davidson - HDI will be HOG - and living high!

Harley Davidson - HDI will be HOG - and living high! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 14 Aug 2006 11:46:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I have wondered out loud about Google many times, if you have been following my blog posts. In my 10 Reasons I think Google is going down number ten was the Sheldon equivalency test; what could you buy instead? This is a very important basis for valuation. You would do this when deciding between auto insurance policies, beers, or laundry detergent, so why not a stock purchase? It is all about the allocation of capital resources, price and value.

In my example at the time I used the combined value of Anheuser Busch (BUD) $35B + Federal Express (FDX) $34.5B + Starbucks (SBUX) $28B + Harley Davidson (HDI) $14.5B + Black & Decker (BKD) $6.5B and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) $3.5B which were equal in value to Google's capitalization of $122B. As I am writing this, Google is presently valued at $127.5B, so we could add a seventh company, perhaps Cummin's (CMI) at 5.5B or maybe another growth stock American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS) at $5.3B. Buying AEOS would even leave us $200M to buy our own hotel resort in Hawaii or the Bahamas ... now that's "tight," as my 10-year-old likes to exclaim.

I am not trying to be glib here; just wondering what y'all been think'n 'bout. Seems to me if you offered Google management these seven companies plus the resort hotel free and clear in an even trade and they did not take it, they would be quite poor managers, or "resource allocators."  

Continue reading Google should buy Starbucks -- NOW!

Google should buy Starbucks -- NOW! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 10 Jul 2006 17:31:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.