Even though we can anticipate billions of dollars in claims there still are buying opportunites.

Do you have any interest in insurance companies amidst the turmoil, disaster and current crises in Japan? A crises that followed so closely on the heals of the destruction of the New Zealand city of ChristChurch by a 6.3 magnitude earthquake. Perhaps you think this is even a poorer idea than catching that proverbial falling knife we are always hearing about when stock prices are collapsing.

Certainly there will be billions of dollars in claims. On the other hand, perhaps the burden will be spread around the globe to reinsurer's such that none is struck too hard and this is a buying opportunity. After all, when the dust settles, insurers will cry for mercy, and in particular, rate increases. It is also likely those that never saw the need for insurance have been awakened and demand will increase.

Catastrophe bond capacity is maturing, and not much of it is coming back. In the first quarter, $1.8 billion in cat bond risk capital matured, and only $508 million returned in the form of new issuances, according to Thomson Reuters. This quarter, $2.77 billion is maturing, and the absence of first-time issuers makes it unlikely that the market will replace it all. More than a billion of it was from State Farm's Merna Re transaction. The successor to it has already been issued, cleverly named Merna Re II, at only a fraction of the previous bond.

The editor of The Moneypaper explains, "The pair developed a Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) model to determine if a company was worth its market price. Their formula subtracts all liabilities, including short-term debt and preferred stock, from a company's current asset balance"

Merna Re, the largest catastrophe bond of all time, is set to mature in June, and State Farm is already putting together its replacement, the creatively named Merna Re II. The successor, planned for issuance in April, is said to be for $400 million in risk capital, though investor demand could push it as high as $700 million. This still pales in comparison to the $1.2 billion that the original brought in the door.

If State Farm is able to stimulate demand for Merna Re II, which would protect the company from non-California earthquake risk in the U.S., it will be third cat bond to come to market in 2010, which is expected to be a strong year for this form of risk transfer. The cat bond market fell silent after the near-collapse of American International Group (AIG) in September 2008 but was still the third busiest in terms of capital issued in the history of the cat bond market. Heading into 2009, prospects for the cat bond space seemed uncertain, but a robust fourth quarter eventually resulted in a year-over-year increase, driven mostly by repeat issuers.

Nine catastrophe bonds have matured so far in the first quarter of 2010, removing $1.8 billion in risk-transfer capacity, according to data from Reuters. The insurance industry has compensated with $508 million in new cat bond risk capital, with the busy fourth quarter helping to absorb what is maturing now. Only one cat bond has closed so far this year, The Hartford's (HIG) $180 million Foundation Re III. But, the first quarter is usually a quiet one for the cat bond market.

It partly replaces the $105 million in protection that Foundation Re D afforded. Swiss Re (SWCEY) and SCOR (SCRYY) are also among the insurance companies with bonds maturing that have at least partial coverage from new cat bond issuances. Another four bonds have matured, however, with no new related issuance, affecting Munich Re (MURGY), AXA (AXA) and others.

Hartford Financial Services (NYSE: HIG) is scheduled to step into the earnings spotlight right after Tuesday's closing bell, with the insurance issue releasing its final third-quarter figures. Analysts are expecting Hartford to report a profit of $1.11 per share, according to Thomson Reuters, representing a dramatic reversal from its year-ago loss of $1.40 per share.

Hartford has a mixed history on the earnings front, with the company exceeding consensus expectations in two of the previous four reporting periods -- and falling short of Wall Street's predictions during the other two quarters. On the plus side, sector peer Lincoln National (NYSE: LNC) recently released a stronger-than-expected third-quarter report, which could bode well for Hartford.

News Corp (NYSE: NWS) closed at $11.92. NWS is expected to report Q4 EPS in early August. NWS August option implied volatility is at 53, October is at 47; below its 26-week average of 59, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Hartford Financial (NYSE: HIG) closed at $14.76. HIG is scheduled to report Q2 EPS on July 30. HIG call option volume of 19,071 contracts compares to put volume of 8,839 contracts. HIG August option implied volatility is at 86, September is at 78; below its 26-weeks average of 104, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

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