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Keynes: An economy at rest can (unfortunately) remain at rest

It is a Newtonian law of physics. A body in motion tends to stay in motion. A body at rest tends to stay at rest.

Further, as followers of business activity know, it's also a law of economics, and that's yet another argument for a large fiscal stimulus package.

Moreover, it's also a rejoinder to the fiscal stimulus plan's critics. Market absolutists and economic conservatives will frequently state that the stimulus plan isn't needed; all the nation needs to do is "let the business cycle play out, and the recovery will automatically follow the recession" or "let the market take care of things and a recovery will appear, naturally."

Not so, according to John Maynard Keynes. Keynes demonstrated that business cycles sometimes don't cycle. In fact, Keynes demonstrated that, absent key stimulus, commercial activity can be down -- and remain down -- for years. A classic example would be President Herbert Hoover's response to the 1929 stock market and the gargantuan economic slump that followed: the Great Depression. Hoover did very little, from a fiscal policy standpoint, to stimulate the economy in 1929, 1930, 1931, and 1932, and the U.S. economy collapsed in 1929, and remained in contraction in 1930, 1931, and 1932. By 1932, the Great Depression had spread across the globe.

Continue reading Keynes: An economy at rest can (unfortunately) remain at rest

Are you ready for the last two weeks of presidential campaign pain?

Have you decided who to vote for in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election?

If you're like most Americans, you have. By this date, two weeks or so before the election, at least 90% and in some elections 95% of you know who you're going to vote for, political science research tells us.

Historically, at this stage of the campaign, the only people who have not determined which candidate they'll vote for are those adults who tend to not vote regularly: they'll often even pass up voting in a presidential election.

2008 campaign: most negative ever?

One benefit, if you've decided who to vote for U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, or U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, is that you don't have to watch any more campaign coverage or campaign ads (if you can avoid them).

True, it must seem like this presidential campaign has been the most negative ever, but if the truth be told, it's no more negative than the one in 2004, or in 1960, and certainly not more negative than the one in 1928. In 1928, the insults and smear tactics used against Democratic Party nominee N.Y. Governor Al Smith, would set the standard for gross and outrageous campaign tactics.

Continue reading Are you ready for the last two weeks of presidential campaign pain?

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Last updated: May 26, 2012: 11:12 PM

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