"In bear markets, a traditional safe haven for investors has been to seek out stocks with high dividend yields and ideally the potential for share-price appreciation," notes Bill Martin.
In his exceptional trading and investing service, BullMarket.com, he notes, "One of our favorites for income is Hospitality Properties Trust (NYSE: HPT), a real estate investment trust, which offers an 8.5% yield.
"Hospitality Properties Trust invests in hotels and travel centers, the latter being otherwise known as truck stops. If it doesn't sound very glamorous, this REIT nonetheless currently pays a $3.08 a share annual dividend, good for a pre-tax 8.5% yield with the stock trading in the mid-$30s range.
"It buys hotels principally for income and secondarily for appreciation potential. All of its properties are run under long-term combination agreements that usually require the operators to pay the company minimum returns or rent plus a share of the increased cash flows realized over time.
"It doesn't favor any one hotel brand, operating under such names as Hyatt Place, Spring Hill Suites, Marriott Residence Inn, Radisson, Staybridge Suites, Crowne Plaza, and Courtyard hotels.
It's foolish to get too excited about short term success unless you are a rapid fire trader. However, the first six weeks of 2008 have been dismal, so any success is a sigh of relief. I enjoy writing for BloggingStocks, in part because of the dialogue it allows, making it a good sounding board for things I am considering in my investment world.
In December, Canada's largest drilling contractor with a fleet of 240 service rigs was $15.47 per share, but last Friday it closed at $19.12, for a nice bounce of 24%. This when the market is down over 8% and almost nothing is looking very promising. When I first called PDS to readers' attention, it had a price to earnings ratio (P/E) near 5 and a dividend yield over 10%. The stock's appreciation has raised the P/E to 6.26 and the yield declined to 7.9% -- still very generous.
I have no crystal ball so predictions are hard to come by, but a closer look at PDS is worth while and you might like what you see. Of course comments are welcome.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the design and research principal for an architecture & planning firm. Disclosure: I do own shares of PDS.
Among my stock picks this year, Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT) may seem to have the greatest risk, but it is a calculated risk and has the potential of very high rewards. It has lost two-thirds of its value since the first quarter of 2007 and I believe has the potential to double if it can just tread water for a couple of quarters. The reason the dividend is so high is that the price dropped due to fear in the market place over its loan portfolio, not a loss of cash flow. The fear is palpable, but is it warranted? I do not think so. On December 28, 2007 NCT closed at $13.08 per share.
Newcastle is a REIT that invests in real estate loans, not the actual real estate, and 90% of those loans are in non-residential projects. Over the past six months, the financial sector has become one big horror story and investors ran from the "financial theaters" in panic. So in my own version of the story, Chasing Value: Newcastle's 21.9% yield too good to be I true?, I decided to play Ghostbusters and tried to make it clear that there is value in NCT. Suppose the yield fell with the stock price as defaults affected cash flow, I could still be very happy with a 7% to 8% yield.
I will summarize here by letting you know I did what homework I could and checked out NCT's recent conference call. This company has averaged an 8.8% yield over the last five years. However, today because the stock is now a third of its recent price, the yield has jumped to 21.9%. Newcastle is standing by this dividend. Actually I think it has to, because REITs are required to pay out most of their profits, and Newcastle has earned 23% over the last fiscal year.
Today came the announcement that NCT will be distributing $0.72 per share for the fourth quarter, on January 30, 2008, to shareholders of record on December 31. This represents a 20% dividend yield -- not too shabby, but a little lower based on today's price, hovering around $14.00. When I first posted, the stock was 10% lower and yield was 10% higher.
You read that correctly, Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT) a REIT, is currently paying around $2.88 per share dividend, that equates to a yield of 21.9% based on yesterday's closing price of $13.15 according to AOL Money & Finance data. We all know the "truism" that if something sounds to good to be true... it usually is. So why am I crazy enough to even consider such a thing? Believe me, I have been asking myself that question over the last five months or so that I have been watching this stock.
Newcastle first came to my attention through a Smart Money story written by James B. Stewart many months ago. He was discussing three stocks that he thought were worth the risk and had bought into all three. One of them was the now bankrupt American Home Mortgage (AHM) -- need I say more? The second was NCT and the third escapes my memory. Bankruptcy tends to put a damper on my investment psyche, so I left this idea alone until last month when NCT popped up on my radar screen again.
I do not remember what I was reading at the time but I started to take a closer look and found that NCT was very well diversified into all classes of real estate, with only 10% of the portfolio being in residential properties. Looking at some of the traditional metrics: the P/E is around 10, the P/S 1.3, the P/B 0.74 and the PEG ratio is listed at 0.15. All these numbers are SCREAMING VALUE very loudly. So what's the problem?