Larry Kudlow, a right-wing market commentator on CNBC and WABC radio, has been trying to sell the idea that the market doesn't like presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama and will surely tank if he's elected.

Kudlow claims: "Markets don't like Obama. If he wins alongside Democratic gains in the House and Senate, taxes are going up big time. [...] Interestingly, stocks have preferred Hillary in the Democratic fight...because markets believe they can do business with Hillary in a way they can't with Obama."

His proof? The day after West Virgina the Dow was up 66 points. But didn't everyone already know she would take West Virginia (if not by such a huge margin? Don't traders still buy on the rumor, sell on the news anymore? Do traders only belong to that dwindling club of Clinton partisans who believe West Virginia was another turn-around?

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), whose huge profits have made it one of the most vilified companies in America, was brought down to earth today after posting disappointing earnings.

Net income at the world's largest oil company rose 17% to $10.9 billion, or $2.03 per share, from $9.3 billion, or $1.62 per share, a year earlier. Revenue rose 34% to $116.9 billion. Analysts had expected profit of $2.13 on revenue of $124.4 billion, according to Thomson Financial. Shares of the company fell.

Just because oil prices remain above $100 per barrel doesn't necessarily mean everything is going Exxon's way. For one thing, high oil prices resulted in "significantly lower" refining margins, which pushed down downstream earnings by $746 million to $1.16 billion. Lower margins also pushed down profit in Exxon's chemical business by $208 million to $1.03 billion. Moreover, spending on capital and exploration projects soared 30% to $5.5 billion "as we continued to actively invest in projects to bring additional crude oil, natural gas and finished products to market."

The problem is that's proving to be difficult. For one thing, production at the company's oil wells dropped as did natural gas production in the Middle East, The U.S., Canada, South America and Asia. This is happening as surging demand from the developing world is keeping oil prices at record levels. Exxon is "having trouble raising production, and that's not a good sign,'' Leeb Capital Management's Stephen Leeb told Bloomberg News.

Hillary Clinton appeared on Jim Cramer's Mad Money recently, and faced some pretty tough questions about the economy, financial markets and regulation.

Senator Clinton shined. She came across as well-informed, and Cramer spent most of the interview agreeing with Ms. Clinton -- impressive given that he also spent an entire interview giving attaboys to Ron Paul.

Senator Clinton was also impressive in her discussion of executive compensation where she lashed out at excessive compensation without banging the populist drum that gets many Democrats a bad rap. She explained that executives should be rewarded for creating great wealth for shareholders and that the "pay for pulse" compensation at many of these financial companies threatens to kill the goose that laid the golden egg.

Be sure to watch the video, regardless of what you think of Hillary: you'll probably be impressed.

Seeking to change the subject from her foreign policy exaggerations, Sen. Hillary Clinton turned her attention to domestic matters, proposing a $30 billion plan to help state and local governments reduce the number of foreclosures.

Moreover, she proposed creating a "high-level emergency working group" comprised of former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan "father of the mortgage crisis" Greenspan, former Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin and reported Barack Obama supporter/ former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker. The New York senator thinks the world needs another government study whose recommendations will be ignored.

"As much as she focused on ways to ease the mortgage crisis, Senator Clinton also dwelled on what she called 'a crisis of confidence in our country,' and portrayed herself as the candidate best able to address the economic problems of middle-income and economically struggling families," according to The New York Times.

Voters, though, are showing a lack of confidence in her. Odds of her winning are slim and none, according to Politico and other political media. That being said, the housing crisis and high oil prices will be the top issues in the campaign. Expect a billion or so commercials on the topics between now and November.

Freelance writer Jonathan Berr edits the blog Ketchup and Eggs.

Over the past ten years, eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY)'s CEO, Meg Whitman, has had a love / hate relationship with eBay users. No matter what your personal thoughts are regarding Whitman, you have to give it to her; she did take eBay to levels no one would have dreamed possible just ten years ago.

Well, her tenure at eBay is coming to an end, and her next move is into politics, working high up in Senator John McCain's Presidential campaign.

Back in January, Whitman announced that she would be stepping down from eBay to pursue philanthropy and politics, and her first big step is going to be serving as co-chair of Senator McCain's national presidential campaign.

While we still have not reached the point of McCain being announced the official Republican candidate for the upcoming election, it is all but a forgone conclusion that McCain is going to be the Republican's choice for November's pivotal election in America. After a rocky eight years with George Bush running the show, the Republicans are definitely going to have their hands full with this year's election, and Whitman is coming on board to have a leading role in the campaign's financing and policy development.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who proved that presidential politics is a lousy investment, is poised to endorse Republican front-runner and his one-time rival John McCain, according to the New York Times.

This is hardly a shock.

Republicans, with the exception of Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul, are rallying around the Arizona senator who is their party's best hope of keeping the White House. The GOP has a lousy history, though, with Arizona senators running for president. Barry Goldwater was trounced by Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and odds are growing that McCain will get a whooping equal too or potentially worse at the hands of Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.

Hillary Clinton's chances of becoming the next president of the United States are fading fast.

Barack Obama swept the so-called Potomac primaries yesterday in Maryland, The District of Columbia, and Virginia, humiliating the New York senator by double-digit margins. On the Republican side, John McCain won a decisive victory over rival Mike Huckabee further cementing his front-runner status. The real story of the election, though, is the surging popularity of Obama.

The exit polls in the latest primaries probably are scaring the Clinton campaign to death. As The New York Times noted, "he received majority support from voters across all income and education levels, as well as across political ideologies, from those who described themselves as liberal, moderate and conservative Democrats. And independents, who were allowed to vote in Virginia's Democratic primary and accounted for 2 in 10 voters there, supported Mr. Obama two to one over Mrs. Clinton."

One of the Democratic Party's worst nightmares regarding the 2008 presidential election is coming to fruition: Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona) will be the Republican Party's nominee.

Some investors / readers may argue that as a moderate, somewhat rebellious Republican and an advocate of the Iraq War, McCain will be a fairly easy candidate for the Democrats to oppose. Well, to borrow one of Vice President Gore's renowned, low-key allusions, Now, I can see you really haven't researched the matter thoroughly.

True, the short-term forces -- issues -- are against McCain. The economy is barely growing, or is already in a recession, and the Iraq War continues with little certainty regarding its outcome or ultimate impact. Further, because there's a Republican in the White House, the American people -- if decades of political science survey research mean anything -- will blame the party in power for not having solved the above problems, and this will take votes away from McCain.

From the home office in Burlington County, New Jersey. I give you the top 5 lessons learned from the presidential election so far. The results are determined through a completely arbitrary process of my own creation.

1. Super Tuesday -- The mother of all primaries produced plenty of drama -- for political junkies like me -- and not much clarity. As expected, Republican John McCain pulled ahead of rivals Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. On the Democratic side, Barack Obama won more states, but Hillary Clinton won some major contests including California. The big question is what happens next.
2. Money isn't everything -- Romney is discovering that buying an election isn't as easy as it looks. Chances are that he will be exiting the race within the next few weeks. It remains to be seen whether the conservatives who are throwing temper tantrums at the prospect of a McCain victory will -- as his mother suggested -- hold their nose and back the Arizona senator.
3. The debates -- Good lord, how many debates were there? A thousand? A billion? The cable networks had too many of these yack fests and allowed too many fringe candidates with little chance of winning to participate such as Duncan Hunter, Dennis Kucinich, Mike Gravel and Alan Keyes.
4. MSNBC VS. CNN -- CNN Keeps repeating that it has "best political team" about every five minutes or so as the returns come in. It's almost as if the Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) channel is trying to convince itself that it's true. The problem is that MSNBC's coverage -- even with the highly annoying Chris Matthews --- has been better. It seems like CNN's pundits talk down to viewers while MSNBC's are a bit more down to earth. Of course, Fox News continues to attract more viewers than MSNBC, which is owned by General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE ), and CNN combined.
5. Conventional Wisdom -- The conventional wisdom espoused by the pundits has proven yet again to be spectacularly wrong. Wasn't Rudy Giuliani supposed to be the candidate to beat? Wasn't Fred Thompson going to shake up the race? Wasn't this supposed to be cakewalk for Clinton?
   

Finally, remember that presidential candidates make loads of promises that they can't possibly keep. Figuring the difference between fact and fantasy is what makes politics so interesting.

As voters prepare for the Super Tuesday primaries, Democrat Barack Obama is closing the gap with Hillary Clinton while GOP front-runner John McCain is surging ahead of Mitt Romney.

Obama's performance is remarkable. A Gallup poll shows the Illinois senator trails Clinton 44% To 46%, according to The Wall Street Journal. (subscription required). On January 20, Clinton had a 20 point lead over Obama. More significantly, Clinton now is in a statistical dead heat with Obama in California, one of the big prizes in Super Tuesday that was once considered a lock for the New York senator.

All hope isn't lost for Hillary Clinton. Polling data should be taken with a huge grain of salt at this point in the campaign. Nonetheless, Obama's rising popularity is hard to dispute. The Grateful Dead minus the late Jerry Garcia are reuniting for the first time in four years today for an Obama rally in -- where else -- San Francisco. During the last Democratic debate, Obama and Clinton were asked about whether they would ever join forces. That probably won't happen. For one thing, Clinton needs Obama more than Obama needs Clinton and given the nastiness of the campaign it seems doubtful that one would play second fiddle to the other.

As for the Republicans, it's about time to stick a fork in Mitt Romney. Polls show that McCain has a 2-to-1 lead over Romney, proving that all of the money in the world can make voters like you. Once McCain wins the nomination, you can bet that there will be plenty of photo opportunities of him looking fit and vigorous, particularly if Obama is the Democratic candidate.

The silly season has only just started.

Baring any last-minute scandal or divine intervention, it's a safe bet to assume that John McCain will be the Republican candidate for president. The picture on the Democratic side is far less clear. One thing is for certain, though, Super Tuesday is going to be a dogfight on both sides.

The Arizona senator, a genuine War hero who has forged alliances with Democrats when needed, may be the GOP's best hope of retaining the White House, though chances of that happening are probably remote. McCain is trying to court voters worried about the economy through his calls to abolish the AMT, fight wasteful spending and to keep taxes low. He is gaining some big endorsements including one-time rival Rudy Giuliani and California Gov. Arnold Schwazanegger. Mitt Romney is losing ground to McCain in part because Mike Huckabee is siphoning off support from social conservatives.

The presidential race is started to come into focus ahead of next week's Super Tuesday primaries.

Democrat John Edwards, whose anti-corporate message never resonated with most voters, is dropping out of the race after failing to win the primary in his native South Carolina, according to media reports. Rudy Giuliani, who fell from presumptive front-runner to also-ran, also is expected to bow out and endorse rival John McCain.

Odds are that Edwards will endorse rival Barack Obama, adding to the growing list of backers which include Democratic stalwart Sen. Edward Kennedy. The Illinois senator is far from having the race locked up.

Barack Obama trounced Hillary Clinton in Saturday's Democratic primary in South Carolina, setting the stage for a dramatic showdown on Super Tuesday.

Obama got more votes than were cast in the 2004 primary. Former president Bill Clinton is trying to minimize the damage to his wife's candidacy, reminding people that Jesse Jackson also won South Carolina. That's true, of course, but Jackson won caucus, not primaries; it's an apples and oranges comparison. Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-MA) reportedly is the latest in a long line of Democratic leaders to succumb to the Obama magic.

The wind is clearly at Obama's back. Though Clinton is on the defensive, it would be foolish to count them (her and Bill) out. Polls show Obama trailing Clinton in most of the big Super Tuesday states, according to the Wall Street Journal.

His campaign Web site has some interesting ideas on economic policy and some vague ones including:

Sometimes, the market works in mysterious ways. This isn't one of those days.

The Dow Jones industrial average plunged more than 234 points to 12,543.95 after Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) posted a record $10 billion loss, retail sales were weaker than expected, and oil prices declined, dragging down energy stocks. The Nasdaq Composite Index, fell 58.70 to 2,419.60 and the S&P 500 index dropped 32.10 to 1,384.15.

In an interview with Bloomberg News, veteran market pundit Laszlo Birinyi said, "There seems to be no end of bad news. Trying to bottom-fish may work when you're out there angling, but I'm not sure it works with financial markets.''

Good point. Investors in volatile markets often forget that stocks, such as Citigroup, are cheap for a good reason. Trying to pick a bottom in this market is going to be difficult because there hasn't been anything quite like the subprime mortgage meltdown.

So far, it's been a topsy-turvy presidential race. Of course, now the pundits are pontificating on how the pollsters missed the Hillary Clinton victory in New Hampshire.

But, there was also a big miss on the international gambling markets.

That is, on the Intrade prediction site, there was a 100-to-1 odds bet for a Hillary win (the website is based in Dublin, which I presume is a bit friendlier than the U.S. about online gambling). Yes, a mere $100 wager could have turned into a cool $10,000.

For the most part, the thinking is that Intrade tends to be fairly accurate. After all, the "profit motive" can be very powerful.

But sometimes things go awry.

So what's the sentiment on Intrade? Yes, people are wagering that Hillary will become the nominee (with a 59% probability).

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates DealProfiles.com.