The price at the cash register ticked higher in October, though it was driven by the cost at the pump and on the lot.

Energy prices and new car sales (the highest in 28 years) pushed consumer prices upward in October, they're still cheaper than they were a year earlier. The Labor Department reports that consumer prices edged up 0.3% last month, a tad higher than the 0.2% anticipated. Take food and energy out of the equation, and inflation rose 0.2%, again ahead of the 0.1% that analysts expected.

Every day, it's becoming clearer that e-readers will be the hot holiday gifts of 2009. Amazon (AMZN) is obviously in the game with its Kindle, with which it took an early lead in the industry. Barnes & Noble (BKS) has made a play with its new Nook reader, applying some pressure to what was once a wide open space.

Even though we're still short of Black Friday, the weeding process has begun. Sony (SNE), which is also in the e-reader market, has revealed that it makes no guarantees about delivery by Christmas.

No, don't expect to see windmills and solar panels -- consumers are leaning toward a different kind of green this holiday season: cash. Rather than hit their credit cards, shoppers will only be spending money they have (and can see and touch). Seventy-one percent of consumers are looking to cash and debit cards as their primary form of payment for holiday shopping this year, which the National Retail Foundation pegs as the highest level since 2005.

This could be a problem for the retailers.

Sure, you'd think that the merchant fees on credit cards make cash more attractive to the sellers. But, Ellen Davis, a spokesperson for the NRF, says that most retailers have found they can talk credit card buyers into up-sells more easily. That leads to a bigger basket size and more revenue. Done successfully, it should comfortably absorb the impact of merchant fees. James Roberts, a marketing professor at Baylor University, adds that using plastic makes consumers more likely to buy at all, let alone more.

There's a chill in the air and a slight up-tick in confidence. Holiday discounts are coming a bit earlier, too. For retailers, this has been a great combination, leading to the second consecutive month in which retail sales increased.

This follows more than a year of drops. Consumers aren't going crazy, but they are loosening their wallets a little bit. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy, and the coming holiday season is where the action is -- for the retail sector and, consequently, for everyone else.

It's going to get worse before it gets better, according to Stone & McCarthy Research. Early 2010 has "the more troublesome outlook," as the economy will have to walk on its own, the research firm says. This year, it's had a pair of crutches: tax credits for first-time home buyers and the cash-for-clunkers program. So, if the stimulus hasn't taken hold by the end of the year, the first quarter could be a bruiser.

The firm adds that "continued growth in aggregate demand" is needed, bringing the discussion back to consumer spending . . . which is where it will always land. We're likely to see the 3.2% growth rate from July through September drop to 2.4% at the end of the year because the crutches will have been gone. And, let's not forget that unemployment is expected to break the 10% level next year.

Investors in luxury leather goods maker Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) saw their shares tumble earlier this week when the company announced that profit fell 14% in its second fiscal quarter.

Coach earned 67 cents per share for the quarter compared to earnings of 69 cents per share in the year-ago quarter, and sales fell 1.8% to $960.3 million. Gross margin narrowed to 72.1% from 75.4% last year.

Like many other companies, Coach did not provide guidance for the balance of the fiscal year, signifying its lack of visibility going forward. But the company did try to assure investors by pointing to its nearly debt-free balance sheet and large cash position. Shares fell by as much as 15% during trading on Wednesday, but rallied to halve that loss later in the day.

In order to "protect our brand identity," CEO Lew Frankfort said the company resisted discounting during the holiday season. It paid a steep price to do so, because other retailers' heavy discounts hurt traffic at Coach's stores and in department stores.

Massive bookselling chain Borders Group, Inc. (NYSE: BGP) reported today that holiday sales for the nine-week period ended Jan. 3 fell to $868.8 million, down 11.7% from a year ago. Same-store sales for the holiday season plunged 14.4%. The retailer said that holiday sales started off slow, but accelerated as the season continued.

Additionally, the bookseller said that CEO George Jones will be replaced by private equity executive Ron Marshall. The new chief executive has previously helmed turnarounds at food distributor Nash Finch Co. and supermarket chain Pathmark Stores Inc. Borders stated that the new appointment will help to "more aggressively drive a turnaround of the company within today's challenging economy."

Borders Group is also getting a new chief financial officer; Mark Bierley will be internally promoted to the position, replacing Ed Wilhelm.

BGP could definitely benefit from Marshall's turnaround prowess. The stock has endured a stomach-churning 52-week plunge of 95.2%, and is currently trading below 50 cents per share. By contrast, competitor Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS) surged more than 9% today after scoring an upgrade from Sell to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.

Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.

As the calendar year winds down, the news no doubt will be full of stories (like the one below from AP) analyzing incoming holiday sales figures and speculating on what they mean for the big picture.

About the only confirmed company reporting quarterly earnings results next week is Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (NYSE: CALM), the largest producer/distributor of eggs in the U.S. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are, on average, looking for the Jackson, Miss.-based company to report earning $1.26 per share in its fiscal second quarter. That's 25.4% lower than in the same period of the previous year. In its first-quarter report back in September, Cal-Maine also reported a drop in net income as rising feed costs offset increased demand. While the share price has fallen 22.2% in the past three months, it is up 14.0% from a year ago. Cal-Maine recently completed its acquisition of a Tampa Bay egg producer.

Economic data scheduled to be released this week include:

Stock markets are poised to open higher as investors -- those that are not taking a holiday break -- reacted favorably to news that the government will allow GMAC LLC to become a bank holding company, giving the finance arm of General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM) the opportunity to qualify for the government's $700 billion rescue fund.

That news will be tempered by data indicating the holiday shopping season was godawful. Retail sales fell between 5.5 percent and 8 percent compared with last year, according to SpendingPulse. Without auto or gas sales, the decline is between 2 percent and 4 percent, according to the Associated Press. Sales plunged as much as 25 percent in November alone.

Retailers are hoping to lure customers into their stores today with early-morning bargains. Whether that brings the companies some late Christmas cheer remains to be seen. With rising unemployment and falling home prices, many people skipped the holiday season entirely because they could not afford it. Many who could afford presents probably were not feeling very merry.

Other factors that may move the market include oil prices. Prices rose above $36 as investors bet that members of OPEC would stick to their production cuts even as demand continues to fall amdist the economic slowdown. The gain may short-lived.

"All the economic figures are pointing to demand destruction, and that's not going to change soon," said Christoffer Moltke-Leth, head of sales trading for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore, in an interview with the AP. "There seems to be no end to the bad news from economic data."

Weather.com seems like a boring site, unless you are in the middle of a storm. It is actually a worthwhile exercise to look at how much snow is on the ground, particularly going into a big holiday weekend.

Shoppers are probably not going to get out much from Wisconsin to Boston. The Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains are about to be hit by a blizzard.

All of that is to say that the weekend the nation's retailers need to "catch up" on weak holiday sales, is likely to be a bit of a bust. Hard to buy things when you can't make it to the store.

According to Reuters, "Retailers prepared to open their doors early on Saturday in a final, frenzied push to save holiday sales, with the added disruption of a winter storm hitting the country's Midwest and Northeast.."

Wouldn't the intrepid shoppers come out anyway with Christmas just days away? Maybe not. People like to cover up the embarrassment of being broke. A storm is just the things.

And in Seattle, they are expecting seven inches of snow. Short Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) on Monday.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

The family of Jdimytai Damour who was trampled to death in a Long Island Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) on Black Friday is suing the retailer in New York State Supreme Court in the Bronx. The complaint alleges that Wal-Mart's advertising created the "environment of frenzy and mayhem" that caused Damour's horrible death.

Despite the death, Wal-Mart continued running the advertisement in question -- which the complaint alleges is intended to attract the kinds of large crowds that asphyxiated the 6-foot-5, 270-pound Damour after a crowd crushed him at 5 a.m. on Friday when it broke open electronic doors as the store opened. Four others, including a woman who was eight months pregnant, were also hospitalized.

I think Wal-Mart will pay for its share of the responsibility for this death. The legal theory here may not work though.

I'd welcome any thoughts from the legally trained among you. Sadly, none of this will bring back Damour. But his family should be compensated.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Wal-Mart securities.

Buy.com led the Cyber Monday charge this year, having the best sales day in its history. While predictions for this year's retail holiday season have been pretty dire, it would seem more holiday gift buyers have the "shop in your shorts" mentality, taking advantage of free shipping and no sales tax to ramp up online holiday retail sales.

Buy.com, which competes with larger retailer Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), has been around for over 10 years and features retailer categories just as diverse as its larger competitor. Some of the folks I've talked to say that, for the first time, they are doing the majority of their shopping online this year, mostly due to the deals they receive, the lack of local sales tax and with the majority of goods being offered with free shipping.

In other words, we're all value shoppers this holiday season. Once the Black Friday novelty wore off last weekend and prices returned to normal, shoppers kept lining up at the virtual doors of online merchants and will continue to do so until the end of the Christmas holiday. When one of the largest online retailers has its best sales day in its history despite the bleakest economy in its history, perhaps that is a signal of a paradigm shift. For many of us, it happened a long time ago. For the others, the gravy train of online shopping is becoming a clearer picture every day.

MasterCard (NYSE:MA) runs one of the best retail tracking systems in the country. That makes sense given how many transactions involve its cards.

Numbers from its data collection system verify that retail sales are bad, but the latest numbers show how bad. According to Reuters, "Overall apparel sales are down 19 percent from the same period a year ago, according to a report by SpendingPulse," Appliance sales dropped 22% about the same amount as purchases of luxury goods.

A week ago, the America's Research Group said it expected retail sales to drop 1% this season," the first time the research firm has forecast a decline in almost a quarter century of surveys." That number is almost certainly bogus and wildly optimistic.

Same-store sales at a number of the nation's largest retailers fell by double digits in October, yet analysts persist in saying that, while the holiday season will be rough, it will not be catastrophic. The deep trouble is already clear now, and it will certainly be confirmed when November and December numbers have finally been tallied. Those looking for a silver lining won't find one.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Upscale menswear firm Perry Ellis International (NASDAQ: PERY) is the latest firm to hit Wall Street with a bleak outlook on retail sales. This morning, the company unveiled its preliminary third-quarter results and dramatically slashed its earnings guidance for fiscal 2009. Chairman and CEO George Feldenkreis warned, "Our retail partners are expecting an extremely promotional Christmas season, but at this point, we have no visibility on what the Thanksgiving weekend and the Christmas season will bring."

In the third quarter, PERY anticipates diluted earnings per share of 30 to 33 cents per share, compared to 55 cents in the same quarter of 2007. Revenue for the period is expected to decline 2% from last year to $222.8 million. The final results will be released on November 20, ahead of the opening bell.

Looking ahead to 2009, the clothing concern trimmed its fiscal-year earnings guidance from $1.67 to $1.72 per fully diluted share to a range between 90 cents and $1.10 per fully diluted share. The updated forecast accounts for one-time expenses of 10 to 15 cents per share related to a strategic review of the company's brands and businesses. Revenue for 2009 is now projected to fall between $875 million and $900 million, down from a prior forecast of $910 million to $925 million.

Feldenkreis noted that the formal review process should help make PERY "a stronger and more nimble company when the economy turns around."

In light of today's slashed forecast and uncertain outlook from Perry Ellis, the stock could be hit with downgrades or price-target cuts. Zacks reports that 3 out of 5 analysts following the shares maintain a bullish Strong Buy opinion, while Thomson Financial pegs the average 12-month price target at $16.40. This consensus estimate implies an expected upside of 211% from PERY's closing price on Wednesday -- leaving ample opportunity for potential downward revisions.

Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.

The carnage at Circuit City Stores Inc. (NYSE: CC) continues as the company flails desperately -- and probably futilely -- to avoid a bankruptcy filing. The company announced that is laying off hundreds of workers at its Richmond, VA, headquarters, on top of previously announced store closings, liquidations, and 6,800 store-level layoffs. This is all in the past week.

Spokesman Bill Cimino told The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) that "Out of respect for our associates, we're not commenting" on the details of the layoffs.

The company's stock closed at 25 cents on Friday, down from a 52-week high of $8.24. Back in 2006, the company's stock traded as high as $30 per share. In 2000, the shares briefly traded at more than $50 per share.

The company's cash problems and inability to get suppliers to extend credit will prevent the company from being competitive during the holiday selling season that is its last chance to save itself.