If consumers try a little harder this year, the holiday season has a shot of hiding memories of last year's nightmare for retailers. The retailers are doing their part, with Walmart (WMT), Gap (GPS), RadioShack (RSH), Walgreens (WAG) and many others opening their doors Thanksgiving Day, giving shoppers the opportunity to start their spending early. There's a chance that consumers will spend a bit more this year to thank each other for keeping their belts so tight for so long.

Forecasts of the season's ultimate result remain difficult to pin down. Some expect a year-over-year decline of 3%, and predictions range to an increase of 2%. Credit is harder to come by, and unemployment remains over 10% and at a 26-year high. But, the pressures on spending are offset by pent-up emotion and a stabilizing financial environment -- even if it isn't getting better yet, it doesn't seem to be getting worse.

Retailers expect a strong turnout on Black Friday this year, but they are careful to explain that it doesn't guarantee a winning holiday shopping season.

Consumers are being lured by good deals and special promotions, and Black Friday specials have been leaked earlier than usual this year in the hopes of generating some buzz. The retail sector needs it. Last year's holiday season was the worst in decades, thanks to the financial crisis. This year, the survivors will benefit from fewer competitors chasing the same consumer dollars.

Take the Nook off your Christmas list. The new e-reader from Barnes & Noble (BKS) has already sold out, and more won't be available until after the holiday has passed. The next batch will be available, at best, by January 4, 2010.

In a statement, the company said, "While we increased production based on the high consumer interest, we've sold out of our initial Nook allotment available for delivery before the holidays." If you still want to give the device as a holiday gift, Barnes & Noble will give you a gift certificate to tide the recipient over until the device itself comes around.

The price at the cash register ticked higher in October, though it was driven by the cost at the pump and on the lot.

Energy prices and new car sales (the highest in 28 years) pushed consumer prices upward in October, they're still cheaper than they were a year earlier. The Labor Department reports that consumer prices edged up 0.3% last month, a tad higher than the 0.2% anticipated. Take food and energy out of the equation, and inflation rose 0.2%, again ahead of the 0.1% that analysts expected.

Every day, it's becoming clearer that e-readers will be the hot holiday gifts of 2009. Amazon (AMZN) is obviously in the game with its Kindle, with which it took an early lead in the industry. Barnes & Noble (BKS) has made a play with its new Nook reader, applying some pressure to what was once a wide open space.

Even though we're still short of Black Friday, the weeding process has begun. Sony (SNE), which is also in the e-reader market, has revealed that it makes no guarantees about delivery by Christmas.

No, don't expect to see windmills and solar panels -- consumers are leaning toward a different kind of green this holiday season: cash. Rather than hit their credit cards, shoppers will only be spending money they have (and can see and touch). Seventy-one percent of consumers are looking to cash and debit cards as their primary form of payment for holiday shopping this year, which the National Retail Foundation pegs as the highest level since 2005.

This could be a problem for the retailers.

Sure, you'd think that the merchant fees on credit cards make cash more attractive to the sellers. But, Ellen Davis, a spokesperson for the NRF, says that most retailers have found they can talk credit card buyers into up-sells more easily. That leads to a bigger basket size and more revenue. Done successfully, it should comfortably absorb the impact of merchant fees. James Roberts, a marketing professor at Baylor University, adds that using plastic makes consumers more likely to buy at all, let alone more.

What's on your Christmas wish list? If the National Retail Federation is right, gift cards are probably holding a respectable place toward the top of the list. These little pieces of plastic are requested most this time of year, and they have the added perk of allowing people to get what they want instead of money wasted on presents that sucks. This trend may give retailers a hand this year, as they'll be able to keep their inventories down.

If shoppers are slow with the cash, retailers won't have to resort to just slashing prices as they had to last year to move product out the door. When the stuff on the shelves is cheap, gift cards aren't as attractive because there's a deal to be had! This year, if inventories are kept down, gift cards are more likely to move.

Black Friday, as the day after Thanksgiving has come to be known, is the day when most retailers get themselves back into the black. It is also a bargain-hunter's delight. In the age of Internet, several websites emerged dedicated to helping shoppers decide in front of which store to pitch their tents. One of those sites, GottADeal.com, has reportedly landed Target's (TGT) Black Friday ad. Target, it appears, is taking a rather aggressive approach to the upcoming Holiday shopping season.

According to the website, the retailer will offer a 32-inch Westinghouse LCD HDTV for $246, which GottADeal.com's founder Brad Olson calls the "lowest price that we've ever seen for that model." The ad also touts $3 toasters and coffeemakers, and 50% discount on kids' clothes and toys.

Wal-Mart (WMT) won't close Thanksgiving weekend -- not at all. The world's largest retailer is going to keep its stores open 24 hours in an attempt to manage demand for entry during the busiest shopping days of the year. The company has announced it will also implement other crowd-control measures. The festivities start at 5 AM on November 27, 2009. Of course, this doesn't involve any change fro the Wal-Mart Supercenters which already remain open 24 hours a day, but it does address the 800 stores that aren't.

The 24-hour access alone won't do much to alleviate the pressure from thrill-seekers and the bargain-crazed who will want to push through immediately. To help with this problem, Wal-Mart is allowing people to gather in different parts of the store when waiting for the deals to kick off. According to Wal-Mart spokesman David Tovar, "If you've got a 200,000-square-foot store, people will be dispersed throughout the store instead of lined up outside the store." Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.

As the old infomercial guys love to say ... "But wait, there's more!"

If Amazon (AMZN) was comfortable with its spot atop the e-reader market, it just got a wakeup call from Barnes & Noble (BKS). The brick-and-mortar book retailer's e-reader, the Nook, which hasn't even hit stores yet, is in pre-order nirvana right now. The first run for the Nook occurred at the end of October (the product was introduced on October 20). These buyers were told the reader would ship on November 30. High demand resulted in backorders, so the next wave of pre-orders was scheduled to ship on December 7. Now, a third group will have to wait until December 11.

This product is on fire, and it still isn't even on shelves yet.

Mary Ellen Keating, a spokeswoman for Barnes & Noble wouldn't reveal how many of these devices have been pre-ordered, but she did say, "Demand for the product in our stores and online has surpassed our expectations." She also noted, "We are working hard to meet demand for the holidays."

There's a chill in the air and a slight up-tick in confidence. Holiday discounts are coming a bit earlier, too. For retailers, this has been a great combination, leading to the second consecutive month in which retail sales increased.

This follows more than a year of drops. Consumers aren't going crazy, but they are loosening their wallets a little bit. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy, and the coming holiday season is where the action is -- for the retail sector and, consequently, for everyone else.

This morning, Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) reported that its second-quarter earnings checked in at $178 million. This profit comes out to $1.75 per diluted share compared to $1.58 per diluted share for the same quarter last year. For the first six months of fiscal 2010, RL saw net income drop a percentage point, to $254 million. Per-share income totaled $2.51 per share, which was equal to those from a year ago.

RL Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ralph Lauren, noted that the results "confirm the resilience and vitality of our strategy and demonstrate the superb execution of our management team." The company noted that results have exceeded its expectations for the first half and upped its sales projections for the remainder of the year.

Consumer spending had its largest fall this year, thanks to the end of the "Cash for Clunkers" program. And, incomes were flat. No change to the money coming in and a drop in the cash going out translates to an impediment to economic recovery.

In September, consumer spending fell 0.5%, the first decline in five months and the worst in nine. Wages and salaries dropped 0.2%, effectively offsetting the 0.2% up-tick in August. The economy did grow in the third quarter of 2009, hinting that the worst recession in 70 years may be coming to a close, but the tough September suggests we still have some work in front of us.

Toys R Us bought FAO Schwarz in May and is now ready to do something interesting with it.

It's a pretty bold move for a tough retail market. Toys R Us is opening FAO Schwarz boutiques in some of its stores. It's also relaunching the upscale toy seller's website, FAO.com. A year ago, this would have been suicide, but now, it might work out. With retailers in every sector fighting for an edge, this move may beef up the Toys R Us in-store experience, with the online play helping it reach higher-spending consumers that may not have access to an FAO brick-and-mortar spot.

For retailers, the crucial season is on its way. Blow the Christmas rush, and next year starts off on a miserable foot. Success, of course, also delivers a healthy dose of momentum -- and a little bit of wiggle room, important in what will continue to be a tough economy through at least the first half of next year. For booksellers, now contending with a new variable in the form of digital readers, e-readers will play a major role in defining the winners and losers. So far, it looks like Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) is off to a great start, and it will take some genuine innovation for the competition to chip away at its market share.

Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), once the leading names in literary retail, is expected to release its own e-reader this week. It will look a bit like Amazon's Kindle, according to Reuters, but with a touch screen intended to make the reader's experience easier. The price hasn't been disclosed yet, but rumor has it that it'll be higher than the Kindle's $259. BKS is staying mum on its plans in this space. There are others in the space, as well, including IREX Technologies, which is a spinoff of Royal Philips Electronics (NYSE: PHG), Asutek (tk: tk) and a project called FirstPaper that has Hearst behind it.