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Home construction hits record low - could be good news

When you read the stories today about home construction hitting its lowest level since 1959, you probably think it's just more bad news -- but it's actually good news.

The only way we're going to even get near the bottom of the housing price drop is for the backlog of available homes to be sold. We'll only see prices start to climb back up when demand is higher than the available supply. We're still a long way off from that scenario, but if builders stop building, we'll get there a lot faster.

Based on the new numbers released today by the Commerce Department, the pace of new construction will put the U.S. on track to build the fewest new homes and apartments since the end of World War II. Commerce reported that construction of new homes and apartments dropped to 791,000 on an annual basis. Prior to today's report the slowest pace since World War II was in January 1991. This was the fourth straight monthly drop and I doubt it's the last one. There are still too many homes waiting to be sold.

The declines were led by a 31% drop in the Northeast and 13.7% drop in the Midwest. There were modest increases in the South (1.5%) and the West (7.5%). Given that the South and the West were the hardest hit at the beginning of the housing bubble burst, this could be good news that these hard hit areas are nearing their bottom.

Continue reading Home construction hits record low - could be good news

My latest investment: Dear Lord, I must be insane!

I just received notice from my Wells Fargo Bank (NYSE: WFC) granting their final approval, and if we can settle a couple remaining estate issues the deal is done. I am about to embark upon one of the greatest challenges of my life to date. My lovely wife and I are going to buy that challenge of a home left behind by my father-in-law. I, the man of a million options, intend to restore that house from the ground up. With the exceptions of the roof, a majority of the exterior wall space, and pretty much the entire foundation, that home needs complete replacement. It's a sturdy little shack, well worn and embraced with a self-made northwoods history. It sits on an acre of land and it has good potential, but boy is it ugly. At least we'll be doing our part to fight the sluggish real estate scene.

We'll be paying about $16,000 for it. That's for the acre of land, about 1,700 square feet of living space (not including attic and basement) and several out buildings which are all in good condition. We're asking the bank for about $60,000 to purchase the home and to return it to clean modern condition. When all the work is done the home should be worth between $70,000 and $80,000. That estimate doesn't include if I add any porches or decks or even expand out a room or two. I figure it will take about three years and about 70 trips to Home Depot (NYSE: HD).

I have the ability, the expertise and the Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) Craftsman tools to pull off the job, but time will be a major problem. I guess I'll be sleeping five hours a night instead of six. Alas, a cowboy's work is never done. Professionals will be needed to install a new furnace, rough-in the plumbing, upgrade the electrical panel, and drill a new well. Most of the other work will be falling to myself and my dear wife. I hope she knows what she's in for!

Continue reading My latest investment: Dear Lord, I must be insane!

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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 02:37 AM

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