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Chasing Value: 2010 Picks Triple Market Returns

The first quarter of 2010 is closed and the results are in. My picks surpassed the primary indices by a large margin. The original story, Chasing Value: 10 Stock Picks for 2010 , was the culmination of a process presented to our readers and finally narrowed down to the select group using final prices from Monday, December 28, 2009.

For comparison I tracked the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the NASDAQ. Each of these produced positive results for the quarter.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2010 Picks Triple Market Returns

Should Home Depot Be Considered After Q4?

You've got to take notice of The Home Depot Inc.'s (HD) fourth quarter. Check out Trey Thoelcke's article devoted to retail earnings published this afternoon. It provides a snapshot of data for the chain. It's impressive.

Besides beating earnings expectations, what most observers should focus on is the fact that this is the first quarter in a very, very long time that has seen appreciation in the same-store sales metric. Not a bad change of pace, huh? Those negative comps were becoming a little boring, quite frankly. Furthermore, the chain actually increased its quarterly dividend payout. This isn't insignificant; it clearly signals, in theory at least, a fundamental shift.

Continue reading Should Home Depot Be Considered After Q4?

Chasing Value: 2010 Dividends for Ten Stock Picks

During my tenure at BloggingStocks I have expressed my opinion often about the contribution that dividends make to your overall return. Most shrewd investors, and especially "my pal Warren," know this and understand why I re-emphasize the point when I make my annual selections.

By now I hope you have had a chance to peruse my picks for 2010. If not the links below will give you another opportunity.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2010 Dividends for Ten Stock Picks

Chasing Value: 2010 -- #4 Home Depot

This year's selections do not seem to offer the same dividend opportunities of years past and my first three choices have none at all. That changes with this pick. Home Depot (HD) is distributing a 3.09% yield.

It's getting tiring to relate the demise of various companies to the residential market collapse, high unemployment and so forth, but certainly this company has been greatly affected. In addition, Home Depot was already struggling to recover from a "me first" CEO who happened to be forced out with the small stipend of $200 million, leaving behind shabby stores with questionable customer service while at the same time facing strong competition from Lowe's Cos (LOW).

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2010 -- #4 Home Depot

Chasing Value: 2010 -- #3 EZCORP

One of the easiest stock picks for me to make this year is also one I made last year and for many of the same reasons. In a time of economic turmoil, high unemployment and tight liquidity, what could be more practical than pawn shops and cash advance outlets? EZCORP (EZPW) made me money last year and I expect more of the same as it continues to expand.

Most investors wish they could have gotten in on the ground floor of the hugely successful The Home Depot Corporation (HD), McDonald's Corporation (MCD), or Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) franchises while they only had a few hundred outlets. In the case of EZCORP that is still possible.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2010 -- #3 EZCORP

Chasing Value: 10 Stock Picks for 2010

To arrive at this years ten picks I scoured business journals and editorials, online and off. I also ran through a series of stock screens repeatedly over the last few months filtering for five primary value metrics identifying stocks worthy of further consideration.

The 5 data points were price-to-sales (P/S), price-to-book (P/B), price-to-cash flow (P/CF), dividend yield and return-on-equity (ROE). I did look at other things but these were the subject of my initial focus.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 10 Stock Picks for 2010

Chasing Value: Ten stocks for 2010 -- Part 10

The contenders list is down to twelve stocks and three puts. I will not be trimming the list today. Instead, I will be reviewing possibilities among four more stocks of well established companies.

There are the two largest home improvement stores, Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's Cos (LOW) as well as the two largest payroll companies, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and Paychex Inc. (PAYX). They are all fine, well-managed companies, so this will just be a numbers game along with a sense of whether the economy is going to reward investors in 2010, or if it's too early.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Ten stocks for 2010 -- Part 10

Home Depot quarter better than expected; shares set to recover

Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) didn't have the best quarter when it reported this morning, but it was better than the market expected. The largest home improvement retailer in the U.S. saw net income of $1.12 billion, down from $1.2 billion from the year-ago quarter. It reported earnings per share of $0.67, ahead of the consensus analyst estimate of $0.59.

The retailer's shares had dipped over 3.8% Monday to close at $26.11 joining in the huge Dow plunge. Will HD shares recover? According to pre-market action, it certainly seems that way, as the retailer did skid through its latest quarter without huge bumps and bruises. Still, as markets have shown yesterday, there is the realization that the consumer won't be spending the economy towards a recovery. At least, not in 2009.

Continue reading Home Depot quarter better than expected; shares set to recover

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: PG, MCD, TLB, CL, JTX, HD, IPCM, MYRG and NFLX

Analyst upgrades:
  • Barclays believes Procter & Gamble's (NYSE: PG) portfolio mix provides better leverage to stabilizing macro trends. The firm upgraded shares to Overweight from Equal weight and raised its target to $60 from $56. Note the firm downgraded Colgate (NYSE: CL) to Equal Weight from Overweight.
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) to Buy from Hold as it finds the risk/reward on shares compelling at current levels and sees upcoming catalysts from McCafe and easing commodity pressures. The firm raised its target price to $65 from $60.
  • FBR Capital upgraded Talbots (NYSE: TLB) to Outperform from Market Perform to reflect an attractive risk/reward, reduced risk of a bankruptcy, and merchandise improvements. The firm raised its target price to $4 from $2.
  • Nokia (NYSE: NOK) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
  • Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Baird.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: PG, MCD, TLB, CL, JTX, HD, IPCM, MYRG and NFLX

Home Depot (HD) tops estimates but remains under pressure

Home Depot First Quarter EarningsHome Depot (NYSE: HD) reported its first quarter numbers today, topping Wall Street estimates, but cautioning that the company's business remains under pressure from the current housing crisis.

Ahead of today's earnings report, analysts had been expecting to see Home Depot, the nations largest home improvement retailer, show earnings of 29 cents per share for its first quarter, but the company surprised to the upside with 35 cents per share. Sounds like good news, but Wall Street has been selling the stock off so far in today's action.

Continue reading Home Depot (HD) tops estimates but remains under pressure

Lowe's rises after Q1 beat, but don't buy high

So, the story doesn't start off so well. Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) issued its Q1 numbers earlier today, and right off the bat, beginning at the top line, you see that net sales declined over 1%. Then you notice that profit on a dollar basis plunged over 20%. Earnings per share? That also took a dive of over 20%.

Then you look at the stock. And you say to yourself, "what's going on?" As I write this, with less than three hours to go in the trading day, shares of Lowe's are trading almost 10% higher! On excellent volume, too. As you might have thought, an earnings beat was lurking somewhere in the plot of this particular tale. Lowe's earned $0.32 per share in Q1. According to Trey Thoelcke's earnings preview, the market thought that only $0.25 could be achieved. This differential is helping to fuel the buying.

Continue reading Lowe's rises after Q1 beat, but don't buy high

Serious Money: Home Depot & Lowe's belong on your watchlist

Hopefully all the people who thought the world was coming to an end have found good counseling while the rest of us get on with our business. This is not to make light of those that are struggling to find employment, or trying to rebuild their retirement portfolios -- this is a brutal economy indeed.

The most important thing, though, is that the stock market has improved recently, "bear rally" or not, because it has allowed investors to see that the market can go up as well as down. The most reliable prediction for the future of the stock market has always been "it will fluctuate".

My favorite motto comes from my time as a Cub Scout: be prepared. If you do not have a watchlist then you are not prepared. Yesterday I started this conversation with Serious Money: Keep your eyes on UPS and FDX.

Continue reading Serious Money: Home Depot & Lowe's belong on your watchlist

Williams-Sonoma beats expectations; its stock is strong but expensive

Home-products retailer Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM), which runs such retail brands as Pottery Barn and West Elm in addition to its namesake chain, issued Q4 numbers on Tuesday. Well, they weren't spectacular. Surprised? No, I'm sure you weren't. I mean, when you sell stuff for homes, you've got to expect that you're going to see some weakness. And there's plenty of it here.

Revenues decreased almost 27% during the quarter, and earnings per share on an adjusted basis dropped over 70% to 31 cents. That beat estimates of 16 cents per share, according to Reuters' analysts, but forgive me if I don't jump up and down over that performance. And what about same-store sales? They were mighty bad. On an overall basis, they went down by over 22%.

Continue reading Williams-Sonoma beats expectations; its stock is strong but expensive

Reading between the lines: Home Depot gave financial report readers hints of more closings

Many were surprised when they heard that Home Depot was closing all 34 of its Expo Home Design Centers, but if you are a regular reader of its financial reports, you certainly would have seen signs of major financial stress. Home Depot (NYSE: HD) first discussed a "store rationalization plan" in its first quarter of 2008 report. At that point, it closed 15 stores and removed about 50 stores from the future growth pipeline.

In the third quarter report (December 2008), Home Depot said, "We recognized $564 million in total pretax charges for the first nine months of fiscal 2008 related to the store rationalization plan, including $3 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2008." Clearly, the store rationalization plan was not complete and more cuts were to come.

Continue reading Reading between the lines: Home Depot gave financial report readers hints of more closings

62,000 global layoffs today

Ten days ago, companies around the world canned 40,000 workers. Today CEOs around the world upped the ante -- firing 62,000 people in a day. Can 100,000 layoffs in a single day be far away?

Here are eight companies contributing to today's casualties:

Continue reading 62,000 global layoffs today

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