Quarterly earnings could be up year-over-year by the fourth quarter. A low threshold for improvement, as a result of last year's Q3 financial meltdown, could set the stage for the appearance of a recovery, but the ride from here to there will be a difficult one.

Data from Bloomberg and S&P suggests that profits for stocks comprising the S&P 500 Index may be down 21% next quarter. It's still a double-digit blow, but a better result than Q2's estimated 34% -- and far ahead of Q1's 60% year-over-year fall in profits. The driver of a recovery, however concealed by low expectations, is likely to be a combination of unemployment and consumer spending. Last month, we saw unemployment reach a 26-year high, putting obvious constraints on purchasing.

Auto sales continued to drop in June, but we are starting to see signs that sales may be beginning to stabilize a bit.

The auto industry is still in deep trouble. It is going to take a while before things get back to normal, but before things can even start to improve, they have to stop worsening, and that's what may be happening.

• Deutsche Bank upgraded Spartech (NYSE: SEH) to Buy from Hold as it sees further upside following the company's "strong" Q2 results. The firm raised its target on shares to $10 from $2.50.
• Oppenheimer upgraded Clorox (NYSE: CLX) to Outperform from Underperform. The firm believes the company's FY10 outlook is conservative, providing room for upside, and that the valuation is compelling at current levels. Opco set a $70 price target on the stock.
• Goldman upgraded Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ: STLD) to Buy from Neutral and raised its target to $20 from $16, citing reduced balance sheet concerns following the capital raise. Note that AK Steel (NYSE: AKS) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy.
• PG&E (NYSE: PCG) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.
• Pool Corp. (NASDAQ: POOL) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at William Blair.
• Liberty Property Trust (NYSE: LRY) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia.

Ford (NYSE: F) is the last of the "Big" Three standing on its own two feet. Chrysler and General Motors (OTC: GMGMQ) are on crutches supplied by the federal government. While they're both still upright, those crutches are mighty expensive (the government will own 60% of GM when it emerges from bankruptcy).

Speaking of bankruptcy, Chrysler is already on the other side and now a partner with Fiat. That was perhaps the fastest legal action ever seen. Usually bankruptcy takes between 18 months to two years before a new company emerges.

Every global automaker is facing sliding sales, employee layoffs and plant re-tooling in the midst of a massive and lasting shift in consumer buying habits (especially in the United States). Honda Motor Co. (NYSE: HMC) -- while not hurting as much as American domestic manufacturers -- has seen drops in year-over-year auto sales. Still, the Japanese automaker will be lowering purchasing incentives as it believes there is a recovery coming soon to its sales.

Honda (NYSE: HMC) closed at $25.90. HMC March 2009 U.S. sales decreased 36% compared to March 2008. HMC April option implied volatility of 51 is below its 26-week average of 62, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Toyota Motor (NYSE: TM) closed at $67.90.TM March 2009 U.S. sales decreased 39% compared to March 2008. TM April option implied volatility is at 44, May is at 46; below its 26-week average of 57, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Nissan (NASDAQ: NSANY) closed at $8. NSANY March 2009 U.S. sales decreased 37% compared to March 2008. May option implied volatility of 60 is below its 26-week average of 65, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

No large car company is going to do well as the global recession deepens. But the one best positioned to move through the tough period is Honda (NYSE: HMC). It did not go through the global factory expansion that has stretched Toyota's (NYSE: TM) resources. It builds small, quality, fuel-efficient cars that have gained more and more market share in almost ever major country.

Results out of China say something about Honda's relative success. According toThe Wall Street Journal, "Chery Automobile Co., China's most successful independent producer and marketer of cars without a foreign partner, said January sales rose, and forecast a sales increase this year, while Honda Motor Co. said January car sales in China increased 17% from a year earlier." Total car sales dropped almost 8% in the world's most populous nation last month.

Honda (NYSE: HMC) closed at $22.40 Thursday. HMC overall option implied volatility of 92 is above its 26-week average of 42 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Toyota Motor (NYSE: TM) closed at 67.09 Thursday. TM overall option implied volatility of 70 is above its 26-week average of 39 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Tata Motors (NYSE: TTM), an Indian car manufacturer, closed at $4.50 Thursday. TTM overall option implied volatility of 84 is above its 26-week average of 61 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Nissan (NSADQ: NSANY) closed at $8.57 Thursday. NSANY overall option implied volatility of 76 is above its 26-week average of 49 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Honda (NYSE: HMC) is about to unveil a truly mind-boggling ad campaign. On stretches of highway in California, it has created sets of grooves, similar to the rumble strips found on highway berms, that are spaced and sized in a way that creates a series of musical notes as cars drive over them. Apparently, altering the vibration of the auto can create a scale of notes that are readily discernable to passengers of the right vehicle that are passing over them at the right speed.

The video explains the process far better than I can, but I must say, I found the audio produced by driving over the test strips striking. At best, I expected a lick or two of Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap, but the effect produces a much wider range of sounds, not at all similar to the percussion usually produced by rumble strips.

If they ever put them on highways I drive frequently, however, I want a say in what music is getting grooved. Can you imagine a daily commute passing over the same advertising jingles month after month? I'd probably detune my car.

Thanks, Advertising Age

Disclosure: I own four shares of Honda. Not quite controlling interest, eh?