Analyst Upgrades

• Research In Motion (RIMM) to buy from sell and Gap (GPS) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
• Archer Daniels (ADM) and Airgas (ARG) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• NCR Corp. (NCR) to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Valero Energy (VLO) to top pick from sector perform and Western Refining (WNR) to outperform from underperform at RBC Capital.
• Fred's (FRED) to overweight from neutral at JP Morgan.
• Marsh & McLennan (MMC), Willis Group (WSH) and Brown & Brown (BRO) to equal weight from underweight at Barclays.
• Host Hotels (HST) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• La-Z-Boy (LZB) to strong buy from market perform at Raymond James.

Options traders appear to be setting up for a bullish move on Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. (HST). Traders plowed into 2,416 new call option contracts -- 5.39 times the average volume -- on the stock on Tuesday. And we know that traders were eager to get into this trade because 96% of the trades came in on the ask price.

Host Hotels has been consolidating in what looks like a bullish pennant for the past few months. The stock closed Tuesday at $13.97, down 3.85% during the past month.

Option traders also look like they are preparing for a bearish move on Leucadia National Corp. (LUK). Traders bought 1,504.00 new put option contracts -- 5.88 times the average volume -- on the stock. A full 100% of these trades also came in on the ask price.

The stock closed Tuesday at $22.69, up 5% during the past month.

Analyst upgrades:

• Baird upgraded Starwood Hotels (NYSE: HOT), Host Hotels (NYSE: HST) and Marriott (NYSE: MAR) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation and indications that negative sentiment has reached a bottom.
• Citigroup upgraded Torchmark (NYSE: TMK) to Buy from Hold as they find the valuation attractive and think management can grow earnings and book value in 2009/2010. Despite upgrading, the firm lowered their target price to $37 from $45.
• ASM International (NASDAQ: ASMI) was added to Goldman's Conviction Buy List.
• Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Live Nation (NYSE: LYV) was upgraded at Natixis to Buy from Hold.

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) kicks off the new earnings seasons when it reports third quarter results on Tuesday. The Pittsburgh-based aluminum producer, which celebrated its 120th anniversary with the launch of its website, is expected to post a profit of 54 cents per share, down 15.6% from the same quarter of last year, on revenue of $7.2 billion, down 2.1%. While Alcoa has tended to fall short of estimates in recent quarters, in the second quarter it did offer a positive surprise of almost 3%. Its long-term earnings per share growth forecast is 14.8%, a little less than the S&P 500, and analysts polled by Thomson Financial on average recommend buying Alcoa, and have for more than 90 days. Shares reached a new 52-week low last week, and are down 48.9% from a year ago.

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) is also expected to report a slip in earnings this week. Analysts anticipate that the conglomerate will post a third-quarter profit of 45 cents per share, down just 6.3% from a year ago, on revenue of $47.7 billion, which is up 12.1%. GE has tended to eke out small positive surprises in recent quarters, by less than 1% in the second quarter. GE's long-term earnings per share growth forecast is only 11.0%, which is less than the sector average and the S&P 500. The consensus recommendation has recently swung to hold GE, but Warren Buffett has bought in to the tune of $3 billion. GE also reached a new 52-week low last week as the markets tumbled. GE shares are down 48.1% from a year ago.

"One long-term opportunity is in the hotel sector," says real estate industry expert Peter Slatin, editor of the Forbes/Slatin Real Estate Report. Here, he finds a trio of opportunities among hotel REITs.

"We think it's misleading to suggest that REITs and other real estate companies are due for a big bounceback this year. They have already picked up some, but the economy, including deepening inflation and weakening jobs markets certainly suggest that those gains are fragile and that further gains will not come easily, if at all.

"In other words, the best posture at this moment is to sit tight and watch. Nevertheless, there are a few opportunities out there for strong income and for growth potential.

"The hotel sector has been hit hard this year. Share prices for Diamondrock (NYSE: DRH) and Strategic Hotels and Resorts (NYSE: BEE) suggest that investors have been running away from a bogeyman that isn't really there.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Host Hotels, Packeteer and France Telecom were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Host Hotels (NYSE: HST) to Hold from Buy and lowered their target to $19 from $22.50 on a lack of near-term catalysts and industry headwinds. Note the firm also downgraded Sunstone Hotel Investors (NYSE: SHO), Strategic Hotels (NYSE: BEE) and DiamondRock Hospitality (NYSE: DRH) to Hold from Buy.
• Merriman downgraded shares of Packeteer (NASDAQ: PKTR) to Neutral from Buy following the acquisition bid by Blue Coat Systems (NASDAQ: BCSI) as they are not expecting additional suitors to emerge.
  
• ABN Amro cut France Telecom (NYSE: FTE) to Hold from Buy as they see increased risk from the company's acquisitions strategy.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Keefe Bruyette downgraded Capitol Federal (NASDAQ: CFFN) to Underperform from Market Perform.
  
• Omnicell (NASDAQ: OMCL) was lowered to Neutral from Strong Buy at Broadpoint.
  
• National City (NYSE: NCC) was downgraded at Bear to Underperform from Outperform.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: HSBC Holdings Plc (HBC), Suncor Energy Inc (SU) and Apple Inc (AAPL) topped today's list of downgrades:

• HSBC Holdings Plc (NYSE: HBC) was downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan, as the firm believes the loan loss from the U.S. mortgage business may be 20% worse than expected. They recommend investors to short HBC shares and use any rally to add short positions.
• Suncor Energy Inc (NYSE: SU) was downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Freidman Billings, citing fair valuation, higher capital costs and downside potential from crude oil prices.
• Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) was removed from Goldman Sachs' Conviction Buy List.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Roche Holdings (OTC: RHHBY) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
• Pacer Int'l Inc (NASDAQ: PACR) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform with a $33 target at Baird after the company's disappointing fourth-quarter report.
• Baird downgraded Host Hotels & Resorts (NYSE: HST) to Neutral from Outperform on valuation.
• Sina Corp (NASDAQ: SINA) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Piper Jaffray due to valuation after the company's solid quarter.
• JP Morgan downgraded AK Steel Holding Corp (NYSE: AKS) to Neutral from Overweight as they believe an acquisition of the company is not likely imminent given recent insider selling.
• Raymond James downgraded Time Warner Telecom Inc (NASDAQ: TWTC) to Outperform from Strong Buy.
• Oppenheimer downgraded FMC Corp (NYSE: FMC) to Neutral from Buy.
• AG Edwards downgraded Simon Property Group Inc (NYSE: SPG) to Hold from Buy on valuation.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).